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The seven deadly sins Of Agile Measurement!

Larry Maccherone @LMaccherone


THERE ARE NO BEST PRACTICES… ONLY GOOD PRACTICES… …IN CONTEXT


LARRY MACCHERONE Twitter: @LMaccherone!


What is Agile?

VALUES +

Controller System

Sensor

Reference Measured

error

Measured output

System input System output +

-


TRADITIONAL AGILE

PROCESS FEEDBACK FORMAL and HEAVY LIGHT and OFTEN

PRODUCT AND DESIGN FEEDBACK

Varies, sometimes silent

EARLY, OFTEN, and CLOSE to the CUSTOMER

PLAN FEEDBACK HEAVY, UP-FRONT

and in LONGER ITERATIONS

LIGHT THROUGHOUT and in SHORT ITERATTIONS

DOMINANT VALUE CONTROL

for the ORGANIZATION

COLLABORATION within the

TEAM


Q: What about these?

•  Scrum?, XP?, Crystal?, Kanban? • TDD?, Continuous integration?, Pair

programming? • Daily standups? Burndown charts?

Sprints? • The agile manifesto’s 4 values and 12

principles?

A: They are just a way to specify the feedback and values for some context


THE SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF AGILE MEASUREMENT


Why measure? Feedback

Diagnostics

Forecasting

Lever

Feedback measures are used to improve

your own performance.

Lever measures are employed to change

someone else’s behavior. Sin #1 Using metrics as levers


Motivating folks to hide data


Time in Process (TiP) Chart A good alternative to control chart

!


Sin #2 Unbalanced metrics


Too often we seek knowledge not wisdom. As a result, we are

becoming a nation of technological giants and ethical

infants.

~Vernon Davis and Omar Bradley

Agile is… and Values (cultural change).

Trust is critical in this culture. Sin #3

Believing that metrics can replace thinking


Sin #4 Too costly measures


When to NOT take a shot Good players? •  Monta Ellis

•  9th highest scorer (8th last season)

•  Carmelo Anthony (Melo) •  8th highest scorer (3rd last

season)

Sin #5 Using a convenient metric


How to apply ODIM

Measurement

Insight

Decision

Outcome

Strategy fails one small

decision at a time


Bad application of control chart Control is an illusion, you infantile egomaniac.

Nobody knows what's gonna happen next: not on a freeway, not in an airplane, not inside our own bodies and certainly not on a racetrack with 40

other infantile egomaniacs.

~Days of Thunder


Roughly -> 85% 98% !Cumulative -> 0.1% 2.3% 15.9% 50.0% 84.1% 97.7% 99.9% !

What is normal?


Are you normal?


Risk calculation off •  3x-10x when assuming Normal distribution!•  2.5x-5x when assuming Poisson distribution!•  7x-20x if you use Shewhart’s method!

Heavy tail phenomena are not incomprehensible… but they cannot

be understood with traditional statistical tools. Using the wrong

tools is incomprehensible.!!

~ Roger Cooke and Daan Nieboer!Sin #6 Bad analysis


Time in Process (TiP) Chart A good alternative to control chart

!


Sin #7 Forecasting without discussing probability

!


!

Percentile coverage, cone of uncertainty, and Monte Carlo simulation


Deadly Sin Heavenly Virtue 1 Using metrics as

levers to change someone else’s behavior

Using metrics for feedback to improve your own performance

2 Unbalanced metrics Day-one have one metric from each quadrant 3 Believing metrics can

replace thinking Use quantitative insight to complement rather than replace qualitative insight

4 Too costly metrics Favor automatic metrics from passively acquired data or lightweight surveys

5 Using a convenient metric

Use ODIM to determine metrics the provide critical insight and drive to your desired outcomes

6 Using bad analysis Get your statistics right by consulting experts 7 Forecasting without

discussing probability Use the percentile coverage distribution, the cone of uncertainty, or Monte Carlo simulation


Data visualization is like photography. Impact is a function of perspective, illumination, and focus.!

!

~Larry Maccherone!


Use your ipad/spot me to review this session


LARRY MACCHERONE Twitter: @LMaccherone!

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