The S&E Pipeline and Evolution of the H-1B Temporary Work ...
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The S&E Pipeline and Evolution of the H-1B Temporary Work Program January 18, 2008 B. Lindsay Lowell Institute for the Study of International Migration Georgetown University [email protected] Presentation to a meeting on the “H-1B Program and Labor Certification: Attestation and PERM, the Sloan West Coast Program on Science and Engineering Workers, University of California at Davis.
Transcript of The S&E Pipeline and Evolution of the H-1B Temporary Work ...
The S&E Pipeline and Evolutionof the H-1B Temporary Work Program
January 18, 2008
B. Lindsay LowellInstitute for the Study of International Migration
Georgetown [email protected]
Presentation to a meeting on the “H-1B Program and Labor Certification:Attestation and PERM, the Sloan West Coast Program on Science andEngineering Workers, University of California at Davis.
The S&E Pipeline and Shortages
• The stormy debate:– Declining interest by US students?– Declining academic performance, nationally
and internationally?
• Production of too few for S&E labor demand?
• How many and how S&E literates are needed?
E s t im a t e d H ig h S c h o o l Y ie ld : P e r c e n t o f F r e s h m a n
In t e n d in g t o E n r o ll in S c ie n c e a n d E n g in e e r in g
R e c ie v in g B A D e g r e e s
0 %
5 %
1 0 %
1 5 %
2 0 %
2 5 %
1 9 5 5 1 9 5 9 1 9 6 3 1 9 6 7 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 7 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 5
N o t e : B A g ra d u a t e s d iv id e d b y in t e n d in g s t u d e n t s 5 y e a rs e a r l ie r
Figure 2. College-Bound Seniors Total SAT Math Scores, 1972 to 2006
475
480
485
490
495
500
505
510
515
520
525
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Source: College Board, 2006 (www.collegeboard.com)
Figure 3. Performance of the U.S. Relative to Other Industrialized Nations,
Median Results of Four Subjects
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Below US
Equivalent to US
Above US
Source: Boe and Shin 2005.
Figure 5. Number of All Degrees Earned by Citizens and
Permanent Residents in S&E
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2000 2002
Source: S&E Indicators, 2006.
MA
&
P
hD
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
BA
Doctorates
Masters
Bachelors
S T E M G r a d u a te E n r o llm e n ts b y R a c e /e th n ic ity a n d
V is a S ta tu s
0
2 5 ,0 0 0
5 0 ,0 0 0
7 5 ,0 0 0
1 0 0 ,0 0 0
1 2 5 ,0 0 0
1 5 0 ,0 0 0
1 7 5 ,0 0 0
2 0 0 ,0 0 0
2 2 5 ,0 0 0
2 5 0 ,0 0 0
2 7 5 ,0 0 0
1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 3
W h ite , n o n -H is p a n ic
A s ia n /Pa c if ic Is la n d e r
B la c k, n o n -H is p a n ic
H is p a n ic
A m e r ic a n In d ia n /A la s ka n
N a tiv e
O th e r o r u n kn o w n
ra c e /e th n ic ity
T e m p o ra ry v is a h o ld e rs
*
Figure X. Percent of Degree Recepients by S&E Status One to Two Years After
Graduation, Average of Cohorts 1993 to 2001
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Bachelor's Master's
Source: S&E Indicators 2006, Appendix table 2-12
(http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/pdf_v2.htm).
Studying, S&E
Studying, Not-S&E
Working, Unemployed
Working, S&E
Working, Not-S&E
Evolution of the H-1B• The 1990s legislation and the economy fueled
an H-1B boom and changed its characteristics.
• The H-1B is now integral to migrant strategy:– stepwise foreign student move to green card (F visa),
ease of getting and debt pay off;– preferential track for adjustment to what has been a
bottlenecked green card.
• Status of H-1B and portability impacts wagetrajectories.
Specialty H-1B Entrants and Population
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Source: Lowell, estimates
H1 Entrants H1 Population
H-1B IT Returnees and IT Imports,
1989-2002
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Imports of IT Services H-1B IT returnees
Petitions Percent25th
percentile Median
27th
percentile
Total 92,944 100.0 45,358 60,000 77,142
Computer-related occupations (03) 49,172 52.9 53,280 64,739 77,500
Occupations in architecture, engineering, and surveying (00/01) 10,635 11.4 49,517 63,600 80,000
Occupations in administrative specializations (16) 7,163 7.7 37,000 50,000 70,000
Occupations in education (09) 6,472 7.0 31,991 39,000 50,935
Occupations in medicine and health (07) 4,929 5.3 40,000 55,989 114,400
Managers and officials n.e.c. (18) 3,913 4.2 45,000 70,000 100,000
Occupations in life sciences (04) 2,235 2.4 35,000 43,000 60,800
Occupations in mathematics and physical sciences (02) 1,993 2.1 45,000 60,000 75,000
Occupations in social sciences (05) 1,811 1.9 37,740 50,000 74,880
Miscellaneous professional, technical, and managerial (19) 1,728 1.9 40,413 62,030 90,736
Occupations in art (14) 1,046 1.1 35,000 45,000 60,000
Occupations in writing (13) 476 0.5 31,200 38,880 52,000
Occupations in law and jurisprudence (11) 444 0.5 50,000 101,850 150,000
Occupations in entertainment and recreation (15) 259 0.3 28,000 37,162 52,200
Occupations in museum, library, and archival sciences (10) 112 0.1 32,695 40,895 54,920
Fashion models (29) 97 0.1 95,000 100,000 127,000
Occupations in religion and theology (12) 36 0.0 24,960 30,000 42,450
Occupation unknown 423 0.5 37,821 49,000 70,000
Source: DHS, Characterstics of H-1Bs, Fiscal Year 2002
Earnings
Table 12. Annual Compensation of H-1B Beneficiaries for Continuing Employment by Major Occupation Group:
Fiscal Year 2002
Earnings
Occupation
Table 7. H-1B Petitions Approved by Level of Education of Beneficiary and Type of Petition: Fiscal Year 2003
Level of Education Total Percent Percent Continuing Percent
Total 217,340 ------- ------- 112,026 -------
Education known 217,157 100 100 111,936 100
No high school diploma 223 0.1 0.1 75 0.1
High school graduate 1,027 0.5 0.8 205 0.2
Less than 1 year of college credit 204 0.1 0.1 82 0.1
1 or more years of college credit, no diploma 1,096 0.5 0.6 473 0.4
Associate's degree 962 0.4 0.5 428 0.4
Bachelor's degree 107,944 49.7 48.6 56,803 50.7
Master's degree 66,672 30.7 29.1 36,060 32.2
Doctorate degree 26,565 12.2 13.7 12,117 10.8
Professional degree 12,464 5.7 6.4 5,693 5.1
Education unknown 183 ------- ------- 90 -------
Source: DHS, Characteristics of H-1B: Fiscal Year 2003
14,448
6,771
93
623
534
51,141
30,612
105,221
148
822
122
Initial
105,314
Specialty H-1B Worker: Previous Status in 1999 Sample
Percent Number
Total 100.0% 134,400
Outside the United States 60.3% 81,100
Adjusting from a NIV status 39.7% 53,300
Academic Students (F-1) 22.9% 30,800
Spoused & Children of temp workers (H-4) 3.3% 4,400
Exchange Vistors (J-1) 3.1% 4,200
Visitors for pleasure (B-2) 3.1% 4,100
Professional workers (TN) 1.9% 2,500
Visitors for business (B-1) 1.6% 2,200
Other and uknown 3.8% 5,100
Source: INS, Characteristics of H-1B \Workers, Fiscal Year 1999
Estimated foreign student (F visa) rates of stay after
graduation, ca. 1999-2003
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
MA PhDSource: B.L. Lowell, various
Perc
ent of gra
duate
s
Adjust to LPR
Change to H-1B
F ig u re 3 . P e rc e n t o f H -1 E n try C o h o rts A d ju s tin g to
P e rm a n e n t S ta tu s , 1 9 7 2 -2 0 1 0
0%
1 0%
2 0%
3 0%
4 0%
5 0%
6 0%
1 9 7 2 1 9 7 7 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 7 1 9 9 2 ^1 9 9 7 ^2 0 0 2 ^2 0 0 7
Table 2. Visa Status: Regression Results for Earnings by Major
Work Authorized Visa Status es
Variable Coefficient Std. Error
EXP 0.0290** 0.001412
EXP**2 -0.0004** 3.15E-05
Master 0.0810** 0.007324
PhD 0.0866** 0.010948
Professional degree 0.1599** 0.048450
Foreign Degree -0.0853** 0.015136
European/N. American Born 0.0667** 0.014707
C./S. American/ Caribbean Born -0.0365 0.023259
African born -0.0470 0.036138
Asian/Oceania Born 0.1044** 0.010295
Male 0.1139** 0.008233
Married 0.0635** 0.007977
LPR Adjuster 0.1566** 0.023254
Temporary worker -0.0505 * 0.023001
Other Temporary status -0.5387** 0.058932
Constant 2.950.89 ** 0.016281
N = 19486
R-Squared = 0.095979
* p<.05, ** p < .01
Source: NSCG 2003.
