The Osaka Double Election and its Effect on Local and National Politics

By Eric JohnstonKANSAI CONSULAR CORPS Nov. 18th, 2015

Notice: The opinions contained within are those of Eric Johnston and not necessarily those of The Japan

Times.

For Governor: Incumbent Gov. Ichiro MatsuiFormer member of the LDP who joined forces with Hashimoto when he became governor, bringing with him about a dozen allies, all of whom quit the LDP to join Osaka Ishin.Worked a firm connected to Kansai Electric Power Co. before entering politics.Is generally considered to be not as media-savvy as Hashimoto, but more politically astute and somewhat less confrontational.Very popular in the southern part of Osaka prefecture.

For Governor: Challenger Takako KuriharaOsaka prefectural assembly woman who is known as one of the most trenchant critics of Osaka Ishin in the prefectural assembly.LDP is counting on her to gain the support of women voters, and especially women who might normally be Komeito or independent voters.She has performed poorly in televised debates with Matsui. Some media polls have put her as much as 20 points behind.She may also draw a fair number of older Osaka women who normally support Komeito candidates (the ``Oba-chan’’ vote’’)

For Mayor: Hirofumi YoshimuraToru Hashimoto’s hand-picked choice to replace him as mayor, Yoshimura has promised to continue with the Hashimoto Revolution, especially that of merging Osaka’s wards.A former Ishin Diet member, Yoshimura lost the race for a single district seat to an LDP candidate (receiving 74,000 of the 212,000 votes cast for four candidates, the other three of whom opposed Ishin) and only entered the Diet as a proportional representative.He is a lawyer by training, but has a reputation of being more conciliatory and more of a negotiator than Hashimoto.

For Mayor: Akira YanagimotoFrom Nishinari-kuFormer employee of Kansai Electric PowerFormer LDP city assemblymanFace of the anti-Osaka merger, Anti-Osaka Ishin campaign this past spring, has a reputation of getting along well with political opponents, or at least being well-mannered.His candidacy (along with Kurihara’s) supported by local chapters of the LDP, Japan Communist Party, and the Democratic Party of Japan –to the consternation of senior LDP officials in Tokyo.Opposes Osaka Ishin plan to merge the city’s wardsFavors reducing bureaucracy and eliminating redundancy between prefecture and city via discussion at the ``Osaka Conference’’, which includes officials from the prefecture and Sakai.

Supporting CastPrime Minister Shinzo Abe• Has met with Hashimoto and

Matsui numerous times.• Likes their views on education

and constitutional revision• Hopes to form an alliance with

Hashimoto’s new national political party ``Osaka Ishin no Kai’’ in order realize both of the above goals.

Chief Cabinet Sec. Yoshihide Suga• Is growing closer to

Matsui, as the two men both serve more powerful, charismatic leaders.

• Like, Abe, hopes Matsui and Hashimoto will be able to grow their political party into a powerful ally of the LDP.

Supporting CastMinister of Internal Affairs Sanae TakaichiRepresents Nara #2 (Lower House)Ultra-right wing, favors underground nuclear plants, Emperor visits to Yasukuni, opposes women keeping name after marriage (though she uses hers)Close to Abe, but doesn’t belong to any faction. Her ministry has much influence over both Osaka merger plan and could cause trouble (or not) for Hashimoto’s new party.Her husband, Taku Yamamoto, is Diet member from Fukui (proportional rep)

LDP Policy Chief Tomomi Inada``The Queen of Fukui Politics’’, long-time LDP rep. From Fukui No. 1 (Fukui city, not nuke plants)Ultra-right wing, Abe favorite, who is being pushed by him as his replacement as PM.Has been especially critical of Hashimoto, though questions about whether she’s posing, as many Osaka Ishin members like her and she shares many of Ishin’s goals and concerns. Husband is lawyer connected to Osaka-based firm.

Supporting CastLDP General Council Chair Toshihiro Nikai

Powerful Lower House faction leader from Wakayama, Head of the 33 member Nikai faction of the LDP. More of an `old school’ rural LDP politician, who is considered part of the LDP’s `pro-China, pro-Korea’ factions.Has suggested, in vague terms, a ``Kinki Mega Region’’ Scheme, which would, among other things, ensure the maglev shinkansen is extended to Osaka, as an alternative to Osaka merger plan favored by Hashimoto. Announcement made just before Akira Yanagimoto, nephew of Takuji Yanagimoto, who belongs to the Nikai faction, declared his candidacy for mayor. Sanae Takaichi’s husband Taku Yamamoto also in faction.

Abe Cabinet advisor Taichi SakaiyaPowerful behind-the-scenes courtier, and the man credited with getting Toru Hashimoto into politics and the whole Osaka Ishin movement off the ground. Extensive contacts in Kansai corporate world, and the `godfather’ of Osaka Ishin’s and Hashimoto’s economic policies.

A Tangled Web. . .

Toru Hashimoto

Ichiro Matsui

Yoshihide Suga

Shinzo Abe

Taichi Sakaiya

Toshihiro Nikai

Takuji YanagimotoAkira YanagimotoHirofumi Yoshimura

Tomomi Inada

SanaeTakaichi

XX

????????

What the Media Polls Say (as of today)

• Matsui has a lead over Kurihara

• Yoshimura has a slight lead over Yanagimoto

• 41% of LDP supporters have expressed understanding of Osaka Ishin’s promise to try once again for a merger. 70 percent of Japan Communist Party members are opposed.

• Only 28 percent of unaffiliated voters say they understand Osaka Ishin wanting to redo the merger plan, while 62 percent are opposed.

• Yoshimura appears to be more popular among younger voters (under 50), while Yanagimoto appears to have the over 60s.

The Key to the Elections II: Unaffiliated VotersHow many of those who are not party-affiliated will vote? If polls are correct and most unaffiliated voters oppose Osaka Ishin’s merger plan, the higher the turnout of older unaffiliated voters, the better the result for Kurihara and Yanagimoto. The higher the rate of younger affiliated voerters, the better the result for Matsui and YoshimuraIt appears Hashimoto and Osaka Ishin have attempted to court unaffiliated voters somewhat more than the established parties

The Key to the Elections I: Komeito19 members in the city assembly (same as the LDP) and 3rd largest party in prefectural assembly (15 members) to the LDP’s 25 members. Osaka Ishin has plurality in both but cannot form a majority coalition without Komeito.Komeito has opposed the Osaka merger. Latest polls show 82.9 percent of Komeito supporters don’t sympathize with Ishin merger plan. Split between the national chapter and the Osaka chapter over how to handle Hashimoto. Komeito fears Hashimoto might run against either Kazuo Kitagawa (Osaka 16th district) or Shigeki Sato (Osaka 3rd) in next Lower House election.

Can Komeito rally enough Soka Gakkai supporters to overcome Osaka Ishin supporters?

Of Possible Interest to the Kansai Consular Corps. . .

On San Francisco’s efforts to build a statue to the `comfort women’:Yanagimoto is unlikely to make this an issue, or say anything about it, and will attempt to restore goodwill through the traditional sister city association.Yoshimura’s opinion is unknown

On Kansai Electric’s efforts to restart nuclear power plants:Yanagimoto, a former Kepco employee, has never indicated an interest in renewable energy initiatives and supports (strongly?) nuclear power.Yoshimura has said little about nuclear power, just repeating what Hashimoto has said. Matsui has serious doubts about getting out of nuclear power but also sees business opportunities in renewables.

On Casino Gambling: (an `integrated resort’ plan)Yoshimura and Matsui remain hopeful about Osaka getting a casino sometime after the 2020 Olympics, but Yanagimoto has serious personal doubts.

IN CONCLUSION• A win by both Osaka Ishin candidates is a win for Ichiro Matsui in particular, and will make it easier to recruit candidates for Osaka Ishin no Kai in next summer’s Upper (and Lower?) House elections. • A win by both Osaka Ishin candidates may not necessarily disappoint Suga and Abe, who would view Osaka Ishin as a powerful ally in the Diet to help counter Komeito, especially on the issue of constitutional revision.• A win by Yanagimoto is likely more important to the local LDP than a win by Kurihara, because the main issue in both elections is the proposal to merge the city. • Losses by the LDP candidates will further damage the local party chapter’s credibility and anger other LDP factions (especially the Nikai faction). How Abe and Suga handle interparty concerns if Yanagimoto and Kurihara lose is key to their own power within the Diet. • A win by any of the other candidates would be a shock, and likely lead to continued gridlock that would be worse than with an Osaka Ishin/established party candidate•What Hashimoto will do after the election is anyone’s guess.