The next big war is supposed to be over water1. Tensions are already boiling over the two biggest nations in Asia, India and China over the water sharing of the Brahmaputra and the 3 dams that are planned to be built over it

The tensions arose in 2000 when China refused to share data on the flow of Brahmaputra. An MoU was signed which mandated that China would inform India over any and all large scale projects on the river2.

India’s claims are not unwarranted as the construction of such huge dams would lead to a decrease of water flow by approximately 60%, starving India and also Bangladesh. This would also decrease the power generation capacity of the river.

China can leverage its ‘String of Pearls’ strategy and the good relationship with Pakistan to de-escalate the situation in their favor. China can use the bargaining chip of demilitarizing the areas around Arunachal, the seas around Sri Lanka and region around Leh if India would agree to a treaty which would be in the favor of China. It could also claim to support India in all matters of diplomacy in Asia and stick to Panchasheela agreements when it comes to all disputes with Pakistan.

Apart from these, China can propose a trading MOU where it would be advantageous to India. It could propose to raise internal taxes to any and all equipment being shipped to India and dissolve all taxes to shipments from India as a favor for allowing to build dams.

India on the other hand can threaten to take it up with the International Court of Justice. It can show instances where it has won, especially when it comes to the Indus water sharing. It can claim riparian right and approach the court along with Bangladesh as a petitioner as well. It can also approach the Intergovermental Panel for Climate Change. Alerting NGO’s like Greenpeace can be actively pursued by India to restrict China’s projects.

Furthermore, India can mount pressure using the amicable relations it has with Russia and Mongolia. The Amur is an important river which can be diverted with Russia’s help. India can offer help to Mongolia to construct a damn in Mongolia as a counter to China’s projects, thereby draining North China of precious water resources.

India can also offer to stifle protests with respect to the Free Tibet Protests and stop any acknowledgements of the Tibetan cause. It can also offer to bring about peace in the South China Sea controversy, since all the nations involved have amicable relationship status with India and has great respect towards it as an arbiter.

Above all, India can accept the building of dams under the condition that cheap power shall be sold to India from whatever the dams can generate. India can also bargain about the trade practices and make the best of the situations by imposing tax on Chinese products in return for signing a treaty.

The way forward for China is to open up and create transparency. Its claims about dams not having impact on downstream flow is fabricated and not proved. It is imperative that invitation must be given to concerned experts to examine and gauge the impact the projects would have.

India needs to understand that although it has riparian rights, it does not control the river absolutely. It must understand the shortage of quality water in China and work amicably to share the river water.

A treaty must make sure that both the states’ problems are given the best optimal solution through proper understanding between the countries with a degree of fairness. It is also important that whatever projects are taken up by China are environment friendly and sustainable in the long run.

The agreements have to make sure of that as well. Any and all diversion projects must be disallowed voluntarily by China due to the severe environmental impacts and also the damaging result on India and Bangladesh.

The way forward is honest talk and environmentally responsible measures.

1. http://bigthink.com/re-envision-toyota-blog/will-the-next-war-be-fought-over-water 2. http://wrmin.nic.in/forms/list.aspx?lid=349 3.