WMO Weather Climate Water1 The Global Framework for Climate Services Filipe Lúcio Director GFCS...

Weather • Climate • Water1

WMO

The Global Framework for Climate Services

Filipe LúcioDirector GFCS Office

[email protected]

www.gfcs-climate.org/


WMO

The GFCSGoal

Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change, through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice on the global, regional and national scale


WMO

Essential

Full

Advanced

Less than Basic

Basic

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Infrastrucal Capacity Category

# of

Cou

ntrie

s/Te

rrito

ries

Infrastructural Capacities of Countries as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential,

Full and Advanced Climate Services.

• Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services.

Why a Framework for Climate Services?


WMO

Why a Framework for Climate Services?

• It will enable greater integration and coordination across disciplines, actors and sectors in the climate services agenda for better use of existing infrastructure, technical capabilities (and resources…) for improved outcomes in climate-sensitive sectors

A Framework for Climate Services will build on existing capacities and leverage these through coordination to address shortcomings


WMO

Concern...

Intensity

Frequency

Heatwaves

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Tropical Cyclones

Coastal Marine Hazards

Strong Wind

Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement

HealthHealth IndustryIndustry

Food Food securitysecurity

TransportTransport

EnergyEnergy

Urban areasUrban areas

Hazards’ intensityand frequencyare increasing

Need for > coping mechanisms

Vulnerability and exposure on the rise !


WMO

Drought Flooding

Pro

bab

ilit

yP (

x)

X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.)

Coping range

Within every society, there is a certain capacity

to cope with hazards

Climate variability and change increase

uncertainty, can increase or decrease this coping

range.

Source: Wilhite 2006

What it used to be...


WMO Climate Prediction Framework

Fo

rec

ast

Le

ad

Tim

eF

ore

ca

st

Le

ad

Tim

e

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

PredictioPredictionn

Applications

Tra

ns

po

rta

tio

nT

ran

sp

ort

ati

on

Tra

ns

po

rta

tio

n

Pro

tec

tio

n o

f

Lif

e &

Pro

pe

rty

Pro

tec

tio

n o

f P

rote

cti

on

of

Lif

e &

Pro

pe

rty

Lif

e &

Pro

pe

rty

Sp

ac

e

Ap

pli

ca

tio

ns

Sp

ac

e

Sp

ac

e

Ap

pli

ca

tio

ns

Ap

pli

ca

tio

ns

Re

cre

ati

on

Re

cre

ati

on

Re

cre

ati

on

Ec

os

ys

tem

Ec

os

ys

tem

Ec

os

ys

tem

Sta

te/L

oc

al

Pla

nn

ing

Sta

te/L

oc

al

Sta

te/L

oc

al

Pla

nn

ing

Pla

nn

ing

En

vir

on

me

nt

En

vir

on

me

nt

En

vir

on

me

nt

Wa

ter

Ma

na

ge

me

nt

Wa

ter

Wa

ter

Ma

na

ge

me

nt

Ma

na

ge

me

nt

Ag

ric

ult

ure

AAg

ric

ult

ure

gri

cu

ltu

re

Wa

ter

Re

so

urc

e

Pla

nn

ing

Wa

ter

Re

so

urc

e

Wa

ter

Re

so

urc

e

Pla

nn

ing

Pla

nn

ing

En

erg

yE

ne

rgy

En

erg

y

Co

mm

erc

eC

om

me

rce

Co

mm

erc

e

Hy

dro

po

we

rH

yd

rop

ow

er

Hy

dro

po

we

r

Fir

e W

ea

the

rF

ire

We

ath

er

Fir

e W

ea

the

r

He

alt

hH

ea

lth

He

alt

h

Forecast UncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

Initial Conditions

Boundary Conditions

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Weeks

Months

Seasons

Years

Weather

Climate Variability

Scenarios

AnthropogenicForcing

Climate Change.

Adapted from: NOAAAdapted from: NOAA

Decades

Centuries

Seamless hydrometeorological and climate services


WMO

GFCS Pillars & Priority Areas


WMO

Major needs1. Capacity development of professionals and communities on

production and effective application of climate services

2. Improved, standardized, and quality controlled sector monitoring data that is compatible with environmental and climate information;

3. Monitoring and evaluation of the appropriate, effective, and cost-effective use of climate information for sector decisions;

4. Research and prediction of sector impacts associated with climate variability and climate change, in collaboration with the climate research community;

5. Development and deployment of early warning systems appropriate to the sector and user communities;

6. Sustainable financial and technical support;

7. Better collaboration with the climate community for interdisciplinary policy, practice and research.


WMO

GFCS implementation priorities

• Capacity development:– Linking climate service users and providers. – Developing national capacity in developing countries.

– Strengthening regional climate capabilities. • High-profile projects to address gaps across

pillars and priority areas;• Observations and data recovery in data sparse

areas;• Partnerships across sectors and disciplines for

addressing gaps and priorities; • Governance, leadership and management

capacity to take the Framework forward.


WMO

11

Domains of operation of GFCS

Global

Regional

National


WMO

12

Domains of operation of GFCSGlobal Level (GPC)• Produce global

climate prediction products

• Coordinate and support data exchange, major capacity building initiatives

• Establish and maintain standards and protocols

Global


WMO

13

Domains of operation of GFCS


WMO

14

Domains of operation of GFCSRegional Level (RCC)• Support multilateral efforts to

address regional needs– Regional policy, data

exchange, infrastructure dev, research, training at service provision

– AMCOMET

• RCOF – Improved regional research;

– Coordinated regional training;

– Support to regional policy

Global

Regional

Critical for capacity building requiring resources beyond a single nation


WMO

WMO RCC Status Worldwide

Designated RCC-Networks

RCC-Networks in Demo Phase

BCCTCC

NEACC

ICPAC

ACMAD

CIIFEN

RCCs in Demonstration Phase

RCCs Proposed

RCC-Networks Proposed

SADC-CSC

Designated RCCs

North America Initiative

AGRRHYMET


WMO

16

Domains of operation of GFCSNational Level (NCC)• Ensure access to

data and knowledge products

• Tailor information to user requirements

• Ensure effective routine use of information

• Develop sustainable capacities

Regional

Regional

National


WMO

Early implementation

Pilot projects in Burkina Belize, Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Senegal, South

Regional workshops for the most vulnerable countries

South East Asia, Caribbean, SWPI (Cook Islands, 31st Mar-4 April), SEE (TBD), Latin America (28 Juy – 1 Aug, Costa Rica)

Joint project offices• WHO/WMO• GWP/WMO• WFP/WMO


WMO

GFCS Adaptation Programme in Africa

Focus Countries• Tanzania and Malawi

• Programme runs for 3 years

• Total budget of USD 10m

• Funded by

Partners


WMO

• Contribution to the GFCS for supporting projects and IBCS, including substructures;

• Selection of activities from the Implementation Plan and Compendium of GFCS Projects for Implementation;

• Designation of activities as contributing to the GFCS if they satisfy the set of criteria

Contribution Modalities


WMO

Lessons learned from regional workshops and national consultations

Regional

• Importance of research and science

• Role of Regional Climate Outlook Forums

• Maximization of limited resources through regional approach

• Exploring gaps, capacity development, and strategies for engaging stakeholders

National

• Systematic dialogue with users

• Understanding in-country capabilities

• Identification of data and observation requirements

• Identification of priority research questions

• Building sector-specific capacities

• Leveraging enabling factors


WMO

10 Pre-requisites

1) Provide a strong institutional anchorage for the Framework for Climate Services

2) Meet the demand for tailored climate service provision in the priority climate-sensitive sectors in the country (Agriculture & Food security, Health, Disaster Risk Management, Construction/Infrastructure/ Transport sector, etc.)

3) Build the capacity of the NHMS and other technical services to jointly elaborate salient climate products and services, building on pluri-disciplinary knowledge and expertise from each sector

4) Improve the Communication / widespread distribution of Climate Services

5) Diversify communication channels, use innovative channels to broadcast (aside from TV)

6) Modernize and increase the density of the national hydro-meteorological observing network, improving capacity to meet end-user needs

7) Improve collaborative climate research, towards more salient end-user driven climate research outputs

8) Develop and strengthen the capacity of end-users to further appropriate and utilize climate services

9) Sustain the newly defined Framework for Climate Services at the national level

10) Engage all national stakeholders involved in the production, interpretation, communication and utilization of climate services in a national dialogue around climate service provision, to identify country needs and charter a course for the provision of user-tailored climate services at the national and sub-national levels.


WMO

• From mitigation to mitigation and adaptation

• From few to many customers/users/stakeholders

• Global century scenarios to regional predictions, days to decades ahead

• Climate change to climate change and climate variability

• Broad climate to characteristics of weather including extremes and impacts

• Operational delivery – regularly updated monitoring, forecasts, products & services

Climate Services: a revolution in the application of climate science


WMO

Benefits

– Better water resources management• as inputs to hydrological characterisation (e.g. precipitation, evaporation, etc)

• in planning, design, development and operation of water supplies

• in flood and floodplain management and control

• design and operation of irrigation and drainage systems;

• for studies associated with power generation, fisheries an conservation, navigation and recreation.

– Improved disaster risk management• Planning and emergency preparedness and response to extreme events

• Siting of critical infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, etc

– Improved support to planning and operations in the health sector• Risk Assessment/health system risk management

• Epidemiological Surveillance & environmental Monitoring

• Health Services (heat health warning systems, malaria waning system, etc…)

– Improved agricultural planning and management• Better drought and flood management

• Improved food security


WMO

Summing-up

3 closely-related issues: Adaptation to climate

variability and change Disaster risk reduction Sustainable development &

societal benefits

Requirements: Reinforcing developing

countries' adaptive capabilities

Multidisciplinary partnerships across all sectors

Capacity building to be seen as an investment, not an expenditure

A key opportunity: A Global Framework for

Climate Services


WMO

• Management Commitee (15 and 17, 2014)

• IBCS-2 (10 – 14 Nov 2014)– Review of progress – Establishment of Technical Committee

GFCS Docs available at:

http://gfcs.wmo.int/final-implementation-plan

Important events


WMO

Thank you for your attention

www.gfcs-climate.org/

WMO Weather Climate Water1 The Global Framework for Climate Services Filipe Lúcio Director GFCS...

Documents

Transcript of WMO Weather Climate Water1 The Global Framework for Climate Services Filipe Lúcio Director GFCS...