The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 1

The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) Project

Daniel P. Eleuterio, Office of Naval ResearchJessie Carman, NOAA Office of Ocean and Atmosphere Research

Fred Toepfer, NOAA National Weather ServiceDave McCarren, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command

US THORPEX Legacy Planning MeetingJune 5, 2014

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 2

National ESPC OverviewAn interagency collaboration, initiated between Navy, Air Force and NOAA and expanded to DoE, NASA, and NSF in 2012, for coordination of research to operations of a National earth system analysis and prediction capability. The original project combined global weather models in an operational synoptic multi-model ensemble under NUOPC.

Seeks improved communication and synergy, for global prediction of weather, ocean, and sea ice conditions at weather to short-term climate variability timescales. • Common prediction requirements and forecast model standards

that enable agencies to improve leverage and collaboration.• A national research agenda that will improve prediction across

scales from days to decades. • Cooperative focus projects to assess predictability of global

scale high impact environmental conditions to inform S&T, R&D, and transition to operations.

• Towards an multi-model ensemble based air-sea-land coupled global prediction capability

http://espc.oar.noaa.gov/

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 3

• Hail, Tornadoes, Tropical Storms & Hurricanes• Winter Storms, Ice• Extreme Heat and Cold• Droughts and Floods• Climate Adaptation• Sea Level Rise• Commerce and Navigation• Aviation Transportation• Food Security• Air and Water Quality• Ecosystem Health• Private Sector and National Security

National Weather EnterprisePublic Safety and Economic Well-being of Nation

Public-Private Partnership

Challenges to Achieve a Weather-Ready Nation

Home Field Emphasis

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 4

Warfighting First – Operate Forward – Be Ready

Defense Department Challenges – A Global Force for Good

4

We provide worldwide forecasts to support DoD Operations – from the tropics to the poles, and from the depths of the ocean to the edges of space, across the

coast to support stability operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

Home Field Advantage… at the Away Games

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 5

From Sources of Predictability at Weather to Seasonal/ Climate Variability Timescales to Operational Prediction

through Global Coupled Model Ensembles

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 6

NRC Study on Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting

This study will identify: • Potential sources of predictability and assess their relative value for advancing

predictive skill; • Process studies for incorporating new sources of predictability into forecast

models;• Opportunities for application and advancement of atmosphere-ocean-land-sea

ice coupled models at S2S timescales (a few days to several weeks); • Key observations needed for model initialization and verification of S2S forecasts;• Techniques for uncertainty quantification and verification of probabilistic

products; and• Infrastructure requirements for computational, data storage and communication,

and visualization techniques needed to make high resolution data assimilating global coupled ensembles an operational reality.

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 7

Partnerships:ESPCNOPPHFIP

NMMEUSGCRP

USCLIVARNUOPC

WWRP/WCRP

National ESPC

Need: Seamless Full Earth System(or at least “lightly seamed”)

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 8

Design infrastructure for operational implementation for coupled system• Define implementation across operational systems, architecture requirements,

cycling setup including DA

Coupled Model Development

Navy ESPC Highlights - Infrastructure

•“Operational Implementation Design” has details on data volumes, resources required, and operational job distributions •“In press” as Naval Research Laboratory Memorandum Report 7320--13-9498 http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pubs.php search under author Metzger

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 9

NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Earth System Prediction R2O (draft)

SchedulingProject Information and HighlightsScope: Improved Model Guidance: Coupled NWP to 30 days1) Expand critical weather forecasting research to

operations (R2O)2) Accelerate development and implementation of

improved global weather & ocean prediction models3) Improve data assimilation techniques4) Improve software architecture and system

engineering5) Promote hurricane and other high impact forecast

models that meet societal requirements

Estimated Benefits:6) Address growing service demands 7) Increased accuracy and lead time for high impact

weather forecasts 8) More reliable probabilistic forecasts 9) Effectively mitigate economic disruption from

hurricanes and other predictable “strong signal” weather phenomena

Milestone Date

Initiate Effort: Charter approved 02/2014

Planning Teams Organized 03/2014

Develop Spend Plan and Research Priorities

06/2014

Develop Next Generation Global Prediction System Implementation Plan

09/2014

Award External Grants 3/2015

Implement NEMS Physics Interoperability Interface

9/2015

Demonstrate Coupled NGGPS 9/2015

Issues/Risks1. Increased WCOSS Developmental

Computing Capacity Needed2. Probabilistic operational skill at

longer lead times needs to be better quantified and communicated.

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 10

Air Force Post-Processed Ensemble Products

Probability of SevereFighter Index of Thermal Stress (FITS)

Probability of Surface Level Reduced Visibility

Unlike Navy and NOAA, USAF does not develop their own global model nor share their forecast fields due to their licensing agreement. Instead they provide joint NUOPC Ensemble processing.

Probability of Surface wind > 25, 35, 50 kts Lower and upper level moderate and

severe turbulence Icing at 500, 700, 850, 925 mb Surface viz < 1, 3, 5 nm Surface temp < 32, > 90 Many Precip products and others

All provided to NCEP NOMADS servers as operational fields, 6 hrs time steps out to 10 day leads for all fields.

Plans for longer lead times and higher resolution in 2014/15.

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 11

Inter-agency Atmospheric Weather and Coupled Climate R2O Ensembles

• Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP: 1-7 days)• Providing rapid improvement R2O capability for US (NOAA), Global (Navy) Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity• Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency resources

• National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NAEFS/ NUOPC: 5-16 days)

• Improving medium-range forecasts and probabilities of specific events.• Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency missions and resources • Planned extension to 30 days (poss. 45 days)• Increasing resolution to 1/2˚ in 2015• Incorporating Common Modeling Architecture (ESMF)

• National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME: 3-9 months)• Multi-model Climate Ensembles: more accurate than any one model• Distributed Production: leverages multi-agency and

international computer infrastructure and investments (US, Canada)• Currently a Phase II research project through FY14 for higher

resolution output suitable for sub-seasonal updates (Weeks 3-12).

Collaborative Programs Across Scales:Multi-model ensembles

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 12

HFIP Ensemble

DRAFT Interagency National ESPC Fielding Plan (2018)

Boundary conditions for TC Track & Intensity, TC genesis, Hi Res Littoral air/ocean operations, EM/EO/NBC predictionDrought/Flood, Heat Wave/Freeze Prediction, Storm Surge/Inundation/Erosion, Beach Warnings, Safety/Emergency/Public Health Operations, Ship & Aircraft Routing . . .

NAVGEM/HYCOM/CICE/WW-3NAVGEM Ensemble

NUOPC/NAEFS Ensemble

Climate Fcst System (CFSv2/3)National Multi-Model Ensemble

(NMME)

Strategic Planning, Environmental Stress Instability, Arctic Sea Lanes, Ship and Land Transportation Infrastructure Management, Agriculture/Fisheries Planning & Ecosystem Management, Water Resource Management, Energy Sector Planning . . .

Static Climatology/Reanalysis

based on past environment

“Climatology Products”

Navy and DoD Capability

NOAA Capability

National Global Prediction Needs

CFS-R, HURDAT, etc.

DOD Applications of NOAA managed

Seasonal Ensemble Prediction

NUOPC Ensemble

Forecast Lead8-14 Days

Forecast Lead15-30 Days

Forecast Lead31 – 90 Days

Forecast Lead3 – 18 Months

Annual to DecadalForecast Lead

0-7 Days

GFS, HYCOM, WW-3GEFS Ensemble

Multi-Model Ensemble

TC-COAMPSOthers

HWRFGFDLGFS

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 13

The call for Extended Range Products in the S2S Gap(Federal/Operational, Credible, Reliable, Calibrated, and Probabilistic)

• When initialized anywhere in phase space, the solution collapses toward this attractor. However, behavior of the trajectory is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions. -- Ed Lorenz (1963)

• Every day meteorologists predict next week’s weather…..Research is underway to develop models that will help them make predictions on an even longer timescale, seasonal forecasts of monsoon rains for example. --Tim Palmer, A weather eye on unpredictability (1991)

• Nearly 25 years later are we as far along as we should be?

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 14

backup