The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

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Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities May 1, 2003 Labour Market Trends in Ontario

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Major Forces Shaping Ontario’s Labour Market. The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are: Growing demand for higher levels of skill and education . An aging population resulting in slower labour force growth and higher rates of retirement, leading to possible skills shortages . - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

Page 1: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities May 1, 2003

Labour Market

Trends in Ontario

Page 2: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

Growing demand for higher levels of skill and education.

An aging population resulting in slower labour force growth and higher rates of retirement, leading to possible skills shortages.

Growing reliance on immigration to meet the demand for skills and for labour force growth.

Major Forces Shaping Ontario’s Labour Market

Page 3: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Higher Levels of Education and Skill

Major Forces Shaping Ontario’s Labour Market

Page 4: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Index 1990 = 100

Over the past decade, most job growth has occurred in jobs requiring university or college education/training.

Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Employment Growth

University Degree

College Diploma/Certificate

High School Diploma

Less than High School

Page 5: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Projected Employment

These trends are expected to continue in future: 2002-2007.

Less than a high school diploma

10%

High school and/or occupation-

specific training32%

College education or apprenticeship

training24%

University degree23%

Management Occupations

11%

Page 6: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

The Ontario population has responded by becoming more educated.

Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Ontario Excels

934

1,9161,721

752

1,632

1,006

733

1,628

845

2,592

1,790

2,040

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 - 8 years Some highschool

High schoolgraduate

Some post-secondary

Post-secondarycertificate or

diploma

Universitydegree

(000s)

1990 2002

Page 7: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

The Ontario adult population is now the most educated in the OECD.

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Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Ontario Excels

Page 8: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Many Ontarians, including those with higher education and skills, still have difficulty getting jobs.

The Unemployment Rates in Toronto and Other Major Metropolitan Areas, March 2003

6.7

7.87.2 7.1

6.76.1

5.65

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ontario Windsor Toronto Ottawa-Gatineau

London Kitchener Hamilton Oshawa

Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Challenges Remain

Page 9: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Youth continue to experience particularly high unemployment rates.

Unemployment Rate by Age Group, Ontario and Toronto*, 2002

13.9

5.8

14.2

6.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Age 15 - 24 years Age 25 years and over

Ontario Toronto

Ontario Toronto

Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Challenges Remain

Page 10: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Immigrants also face face particular barriers to employment in many cases, giving them a higher unemployment rate than others in Toronto.

Unemployment Rate, Immigrants and Non-immigrants,

Toronto, 2001

5.16.7

11.3

02468

1012

Non-immigrants All Immigrants Immigrants within thelast 5 years

Higher Levels of Skills and Education: Challenges Remain

Page 11: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages

Major Forces Shaping Ontario’s Labour Market

Page 12: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Changing Age Profile of Ontario

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0-24 years 25-44 years 45-64 years 65+ years

2002 2010 2020 2028

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance Population Projections (2001-2028)

By 2028, senior citizens will make up 20.3% of the population of the GTA and of Ontario, compared to 11.1% and 12.6% respectively today.

Page 13: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

There will be fewer new entrants to the labour force, and a growing number of people exiting the labour force due to retirement.

Possible Skills Shortages: Gap Between Entrants and Exits

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026

Source: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance (Reference Scenario)

Thousands

Gap Between Population Entering Working-age (15) and

Entering Retirement Age (65), Ontario, Historical and Projected

Page 14: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Slower Labour Force Growth

-1

0

1

2

3

4

77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 25 28

Per Cent

Historical Projected

The aging population will result in slower labour force growth in Ontario in future and there will be high rates of retirement from many key occupations.

Page 15: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Occupational Title Labour ForcePercentage aged 55+

Number of workers aged 20-34 to each worker aged 55+

All occupations 5,992,765 11.9 2.6

Accommodation service managers 9,965 26.7 0.8Fire chiefs and senior fire-fighting officers 665 19.5 0.3Government managers in education policy development & program administration 205 19.5 0.6Insurance, real estate and financial brokerage managers 13,550 19.5 0.9Senior managers - Health, education, social & comm. Services & membership organizations 6,790 18.9 0.6Administrators in post-secondary education and vocational training 4,635 18.3 1.0Construction managers 22,425 18.2 1.1Managers in health care 9,055 16.6 1.0School principals & administrators of elementary & secondary education 10,765 15.5 0.4Senior government managers and officials 9,115 15.5 0.6Facility operation and maintenance managers 23,340 15.2 1.4Utilities managers 3,670 15.0 0.9Retail trade managers 134,560 14.9 1.9Library, archive, museum and art gallery managers 1,665 14.7 1.0Manufacturing managers 39,685 14.5 1.4Engineering, science and architecture managers 10,615 14.1 1.4Managers in social, community and correctional services 5,320 13.6 1.4

General practitioners and family physicians 15,965 24.4 0.8Specialist physicians 8,885 24.2 0.9Dentists 7,695 19.9 1.0Denturists 485 19.6 1.5Head nurses and supervisors 2,570 18.1 0.7Dental technicians and laboratory bench workers 1,955 14.6 1.6Registered nurses 87,690 13.9 1.6

Management occupations

Health occupations

Possible Skills Shortages: High Rates of Retirements

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May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Occupational Title Labour ForcePercentage aged 55+

Number of workers aged 20-34 to each worker aged 55+

University professors 17,335 30.0 0.5College and other vocational instructors 22,935 19.4 1.2School and guidance counsellors 4,210 12.7 2.4Secondary school teachers 61,385 12.6 2.2

Judges 885 53.7 0.1Ministers of religion 10,575 31.4 0.4Psychologists 4,710 21.5 0.9Translators, terminologists and interpreters 4,230 21.0 1.3Writers 9,840 20.5 1.3Librarians 4,690 19.8 0.8Physicists and astronomers 1,460 18.8 1.4Land surveyors 1,970 17.0 1.2Civil engineers 14,510 15.9 1.8Architects 5,135 15.7 1.8Lawyers and Quebec notaries 26,550 15.2 1.8Aircraft instrument, electrical & avionics mechanics, technicians & inspectors 2,415 14.9 1.6Petroleum engineers 270 14.8 2.0Mechanical engineers 15,950 14.4 2.2Patternmakers, textile, leather and fur products 675 14.1 2.1Civil engineering technologists & technicians & construction estimators 6,845 14.0 2.2Chemical engineers 4,055 13.9 2.6Drafting technologists and technicians 10,325 13.3 2.6Financial auditors and accountants 66,345 13.2 2.1

Education occupations

Other professional occupations

Possible Skills Shortages: High Rates of Retirements

Page 17: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Occupational Title Labour ForcePercentage aged 55+

Number of workers aged 20-34 to each worker aged 55+

Boilermakers 1,160 20.7 1.0Machine fitters 1,990 19.3 1.2Elevator constructors and mechanics 1,570 18.5 1.6Bricklayers 8,485 17.0 1.6Electrical mechanics 1,765 16.4 1.4Cabinetmakers 6,440 16.2 1.9Electric appliance servicers and repairers 3,165 15.6 1.7Plumbers 13,095 14.4 2.2Structural metal and platework fabricators and fitters 3,520 13.9 2.1Tool and die makers 14,655 13.8 2.4Tilesetters 2,425 13.2 2.1Carpenters 38,395 13.1 2.2Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 6,415 12.9 2.0Sheet metal workers 7,145 12.8 2.3Electricians (except industrial and power system) 22,380 12.8 2.5Cement finishers 3,595 12.5 2.9

Visiting homemakers, housekeepers and related occupations 31,255 17.5 1.4Crane operators 5,280 16.9 1.3Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 18,815 16.5 1.6Butchers and meat cutters, retail and wholesale 7,610 15.2 1.6Truck drivers 93,390 15.1 1.7Hairstylists and barbers 32,155 13.1 2.9

Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census of Population (SOC91).

Other occupations

Skilled trades

Possible Skills Shortages: High Rates of Retirements

Page 18: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Median Retirement Age in Ontario

60

62

64

66

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

(Years)

While the workforce is getting older, more Ontarians are retiring earlier, exacerbating the situation.

Page 19: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: What are Skills Shortages?

A skills shortage is an imbalance, or gap, that occurs when the demand for workers with a particular set of skills exceeds the available supply of those workers in the labour market.

Skills shortages may be cyclical or structural, short-lived or persistent.

Cyclical skill shortages occur with economic cycles. They are a normal feature of dynamic economies and labour markets.

Demand > Supply

Page 20: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

The demand is “effective”; the jobs offer typical (prevailing) wages and conditions.

The market does not clear the mismatch in a reasonable period of time.

Skills shortages exist only if…….

Possible Skills Shortages: What are Skills Shortages?

Page 21: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Various tools can be used for measuring skill shortages. Each of these tools has significant limitations.

It is important to be aware that there is no agreed-upon, definitive method for identifying or projecting skill shortages.

Possible Skills Shortages: Methodology

Page 22: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Studies of skills shortages therefore tend to be sponsored by sectors or employer groups, to measure the opinions of employers, and to be on an ad hoc basis, covering specific sectors of the economy or specific occupations.  As a result, the surveys are frequently subjective, are not comparable across sectors and occupations, and may not be very reliable.

In general, employer surveys tend to over-state the extent of skills shortages.

Possible Skills Shortages: Economic Indicators

Page 23: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

MTCU maintains a database of economic indicators to monitor and assess current occupational supply issues in Ontario. These are:

Labour Force Survey

Employment and unemployment rates

Employment and average hourly earnings of full-time employees

HRDC Administrative Data

Employment insurance claimants

Work permits granted to individuals to work in Ontario by 4-digit occupation

Census

Employment by 4-digit occupation, 1991 and 1996

Possible Skills Shortages: Economic Indicators

Page 24: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Use of these indicators suggests the following occupations appeared to have been experiencing tight labour market conditions in 2002:

Registered nurses

Medical Radiation Technologists

Tool and Die Makers

Construction Managers

Heavy-duty Equipment Mechanics

Other Repairers and Servicers

Technical Sales Specialists, Wholesale Trade

Writers

Editors

Retail Trade Supervisors

Supervisors, Plastic and Rubber Products Manufacturing

Foundry Workers

Travel Counsellors

Process Control and Machine Operators, Food and Beverage Processing

Electrical and electronics engineersAccommodation Service ManagersOther Services ManagersFinancial and Investment AnalystsOther Financial OfficersComputer Engineers Computer Systems AnalystsSpecialists in Human ResourcesAerospace EngineersInspectors in Public and Environmental Health and

Occupational Health and SafetyLawyersParalegal and Related OccupationsIndustrial and Manufacturing EngineersElectrical and Electronics Engineering Technologists and

TechniciansOccupational Therapists

Possible Skills Shortages: Economic Indicators

Page 25: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

These indicators provide one source of data which must be “tested” against other reports such as employer surveys.

They are not standalone indicators of skill shortages. Furthermore, they reflect conditions in the recent past but not necessarily the present or the future.

They do not apply to non-competitive (regulated) labour markets (e.g. nursing) where factors such as government fiscal pressures may be affecting occupational supply or demand.

They are constrained by data availability (aggregation, skill, job vacancies) and do not reflect sub-occupations or local markets where shortages may exist.

Possible Skills Shortages: Employer Reports

Page 26: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Employer reports, often in the form of surveys by industry associations or Statistics Canada, are an important method of obtaining information on possible skills shortages.

Despite their weaknesses, employer reports are valuable because employers are closest to market realities, and because employer reports of recruitment or retention difficulty reflect both demand and supply conditions.

Employer reports can also provide information on shortages in regulated areas of the economy.

Possible Skills Shortages: Employer Reports

Page 27: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Possible Skills Shortages: Employer Reports

Source: Canadian Federation of Independent Business, Members Opinion Surveys # 24-51

% C

om

pan

ies

Rep

ort

ing

Co

nce

rn O

ver

Lab

ou

r S

ho

rtag

es

Un

emp

loym

ent R

ate

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dec1989

Dec1990

Dec1991

Dec1992

Dec1993

Dec1994

Dec1995

Dec1996

Dec1997

Dec1998

Dec1999

Dec2000

Dec2001

Dec2002

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Shortage of Qualified Labour

Unemployment Rate

47.8%

Page 28: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Source: Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME), 2001-2003 Management Issues Survey (Based on 532 company responses across Canada – about 200 from Ontario)

9%

10%

12%

13%

15%

16%

19%

21%

24%

32%

37%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Software Development & Programming

Export Development

Scientific Research

Tool & Die

Information Technology

Welding

Marketing

Machining

Design

Manufacturing Management

Engineering

Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters:Types of “technical skills” in shortage reported in the 2001-2003 member survey

Possible Skills Shortages: Employer Reports

Page 29: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

2002 Auto Parts Manufacturing Association, Compensation and Human Resource Practices Survey

Percentage of Companies with Anticipated Shortages by Skilled Trade, Auto Parts Sector, Canada

8.5

31.4

2.9

11.111.8

26.2

16.2

2320.3

27.9

2.8

16.1

12.2

29.4

05

101520253035

In 2002 2003-2004

Tool and Die Makers Mould Makers General Machinists Industrial Electricians

Millwrights Industrial Welders Other

Possible Skills Shortages: Employer Reports

Page 30: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Growing Reliance on Immigration

Major Forces Shaping Ontario’s Labour Market

Page 31: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

In 2001, Ontario received 148,244 immigrants: 59% of all immigrants to Canada.

Most immigrants settle in large urban centres. Between 1996 and 2001, Toronto received 53% of immigrants to Ontario.

Growing Reliance on Immigration

34.3

11.5 12.5

41.739.6

12.8 13.6

34.0

43.3

17.7

11.8

27.2

0

20

40

60

Toronto Vancouver Montreal Other

%

Immigrants of the 1970s in 1981 Census

Immigrants of the 1980s in 1991 Census

Immigrants of the 1990s in 2001 Census

Distribution of Immigrants 10 Year or Less in Canada

Page 32: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Canada 18.4%6.3

4.5

11.1

12.4

15.7

16.5

17.6

17.8

17.8

18.4

18.8

18.8

20.9

21.8

22.1

22.3

23.6

37.5

43.7

0 10 20 30 40 50

Non CMA's

Other CMA's

Thunder Bay

Kingston

Oshawa

Winnipeg

Ottawa-Hull*

St. Catharines-Niagara

Edmonton

Montréal

Victoria

London

Calgary

Abbotsford

Kitchener

Windsor

Hamilton

Vancouver

Toronto

%

Foreign-born as a % of metropolitan population

Growing Reliance on Immigration

Page 33: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

43.740.2

37.5

30.9 30.9

24.4

18.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Toronto Miami Vancouver Sydney Los Angeles New YorkCity

Montreal

% Foreign-born as a % of metropolitan population, 2000/2001

Growing Reliance on Immigration

Page 34: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and UniversitiesSource: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census

Ethnic originsTotal

responses% of total

population Ethnic originsTotal

responses% of total

populationThousands Thousands

Canadian 862 18.5English 784 16.9 Filipino 140 3.0Scottish 517 11.1 Ukrainian 105 2.2Irish 487 10.5 Dutch (Netherlands) 86 1.8Chinese 436 9.4 Greek 85 1.8Italian 429 9.2 Spanish 66 1.4East Indian 346 7.4 Russian 63 1.3French 221 4.7 Hungarian (Magyar) 47 1.0German 220 4.7 Sri Lankan 45 1.0Portuguese 172 3.7 Vietnamese 45 1.0Polish 167 3.6 Welsh 44 1.0Jewish 161 3.5 Korean 43 0.9Jamaican 151 3.2 Pakistani 43 0.9

Note: Respondents who reported multiple ethnic origins are counted more than once as they are included in the multiple responses for each origin they reported.

62 groups in Toronto have a total ethnic origin response count of 10,000 or more.

Growing Reliance on Immigration

Page 35: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Growing Reliance on Immigration

29% of Ontario’s labour force and 48% of Toronto`s labour force is made up of immigrants. Over the next decade, immigrants will be responsible for all or most of the labour force growth in Ontario and Toronto.

Toronto

Toronto

Ontario

Ontario

Percentage of Immigrants and Non-immigrants in the Labour Force, 2001

70.7

29.3

4.3

51.348.7

8.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Non-immigrants All Immigrants Immigrants within the last5 years

Toronto

Ontario

Page 36: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Growing Reliance on Immigration

Immigrants to Ontario are highly educated.

74.0%72.5%

71.0%

67.8%

60%

64%

68%

72%

76%

1998 1999 2000 2001Year

Adult Immigrants with some post-secondary education and/or training in Ontario

Source: LIDS data (landed immigrants only) Citizenship and Immigration Canada. Figures obtained by: Ontario Ministry of Citizenship, Immigration and Settlement Unit. Based on immigrants aged 18-64.

Page 37: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Growing Reliance on Immigration

Immigrants are facing increasing challenges finding and keeping good jobs.

$0.72

$1.00

$0.63

$0.90

$0.63

$0.80

$-

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

Cen

ts P

er D

olla

r

1980 1990 2000

After One Year

After Ten Years

Earnings of male immigrants in cents per dollar of Canadian born males

Page 38: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Sources of Information for

Career Planning

Conclusion

Page 39: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Ontario Occupational Projections

MTCU, with HRDC Ontario Region, conducts occupational projections for Ontario.

These show the number of job openings we expect for over 500 detailed occupations for the coming five years; the current projections are for 2002-2007.

These take into account expected job openings due to expansion of the number of jobs in the occupation, as well as expected job openings to replace existing workers who are retiring.

These are NOT projections of future shortages or demand/supply conditions because they do not take account of the supply side – the number of people who will be available with the skills necessary to take these jobs as they come available.

Information on job prospects and other information is used in Ontario Job Futures, which provides career planning information for 157 occupations.

Page 40: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

0 10 20 30

Professional and technical (except teaching and health care)

Managers

Elemental sales and service occupations and labourers

Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities

Skilled trades

Services

Sales

Transport equipment operation, installation and maintenance

Clerical

Teaching

Supervisors

Health care

Occupations unique to primary industry

(%)

Ontario Occupational Projections: Shares of Growth by Occupation

Page 41: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

0 5 10 15 20 25

Wholesale and Retail Trade

Manufacturing

Business Services

Health Services

Personal and Other Services

Accommodation, Food and Recreation Services

Transportation and Communications

Education Services

Construction

Public Administration

Finance, Insurance and Real Estate

Primary

Utilities

(%)

Ontario Occupational Projections: Shares of Growth by Industry

Page 42: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Attrition Due to Retirement and Deaths: 1996-2010

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and millinersShoe repairers and shoemakers

UpholsterersCrane operators

Contractors & superv., metal form., shaping & erect.Supervisors, machinists and related occupationsContractors & superv.,elect. trades & telecomm.

Elevator constructors and mechanicsStationary engineers and auxiliary equip. operators

Electric appliance servicers and repairersBlacksmiths and die setters

Electrical mechanicsBoilermakers

Construction millwrights & ind. mech. (ex. textile)Jewellers, watch repairers and related occupations

BricklayersSteamfitters, pipefitters & sprinkler sys. Instal.

Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectorsPower system electricians

(%)

Average for all occupations: 28.8%

Ontario Occupational Projections: Occupational Attrition Rates

Page 43: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Ontario Occupational Projections: Identifying Occupational Prospects

The Ontario Government and HRDC Ontario Region combine the information on projected growth in industries and occupations with the information on projected attrition due to retirements, and other information on job trends, to assign job prospects ratings to 157 occupations in Ontario.

The ratings are:

Good (Relative to other occupations, employment prospects are above average). In the latest rankings, 28% of occupations fall into this category.

Average (Relative to other occupations, employment prospects are about average). In the latest rankings, 62% of occupations fall into this category.

Limited (Relative to other occupations, employment prospects are below average). In the latest rankings, 10% of occupations fall into this category.

Page 44: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Occupations With “Good” Prospects in Ontario 2002-2007

Financial Managers

Information Systems and Data Processing Managers

Sales, Marketing and Advertising Managers

Retail Trade Managers

Restaurant and Food Service Managers

Managers in Health Care

Manufacturing Managers

Financial Auditors and Accountants

Financial and Investment Analysts

Securities Agents, Investment Dealers and Traders

Administrative Officers

Chemists

Mechanical Engineers

Computer Systems Analysts

Computer Programmers

Applied Chemical Technologists and Technicians

Industrial Engineering and Manufacturing Technologists and Technicians

Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technologists and Technicians

Electronic Service Technicians (Household and Business Equipment)

Specialist Physicians

General Practitioners and Family Physicians

Dentists

Optometrists

Pharmacists

Physiotherapists

Registered Nurses

Medical Laboratory Technologists and Pathologists' Assistants

Medical Radiation Technologists

Nurse Aides and Orderlies

Psychologists

Social Workers

Secondary School Teachers

Elementary School and Kindergarten Teachers

Paralegal and Related Occupations

Writers

Technical Sales Specialists, Wholesale Trade

Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks

Chefs

Food and Beverage Servers

Hairstylists and Barbers

Carpenters

Machinists and Machining and Tooling Inspectors

Tool and Die Makers

Construction Millwrights and Industrial Mechanics (except Textile)

Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Mechanics

Motor Vehicle Mechanics, Technicians and Mechanical Repairers

Truck Drivers

Page 45: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Occupations With “Average” Prospects in Ontario 2002-2007

Human Resources Managers

Purchasing Managers

Insurance, Real Estate and Financial Brokerage Managers

Banking, Credit and Other Investment Managers

Construction Managers

Residential Home Builders and Renovators

Financial and Investment Analysts

Securities Agents, Investment Dealers and Traders

Specialists in Human Resources

Administrative Officers

Executive Assistants

Property Administrators

Purchasing Agents and Officers

Bookkeepers

Insurance Adjusters and Claims Examiners

Insurance Underwriters

Medical Secretaries

Receptionists and Switchboard Operators

Accounting and Related Clerks

Administrative Clerks

Shippers and Receivers

Production Clerks

Purchasing and Inventory Clerks

Civil Engineers

Chemical Engineers

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineers

Aerospace Engineers

Computer Engineers

Architects

Urban and Land Use Planners

Computer Programmers

Biological Technologists and Technicians

Civil Engineering Technologists and Technicians and Construction Estimators

Mechanical Engineering Technologists and Technicians

Industrial Instrument Technicians and Mechanics

Aircraft Instrument, Electrical and Avionics Mechanics, Technicians and Inspectors

Architectural Technologists and Technicians

Industrial Designers

Survey Technologists and Technicians

Veterinarians

Chiropractors

Medical Laboratory Technicians

Respiratory Therapists and Clinical Perfusionists

Ambulance Attendants and Other Paramedical Occupations

Dental Assistants

Page 46: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Occupations With “Average” Prospects in Ontario 2002-2007

Nurse Aides and Orderlies

Lawyers and Quebec Notaries

School and Guidance Counselors

Economists and Economic Policy Researchers and Analysts

Community and Social Service Workers

Writers

Editors

Journalists

Professional Occupations in Public Relations and Communications

Translators, Terminologists and Interpreters

Graphic Arts Technicians

Audio and Video Recording Technicians

Other Tech in Motion Pictures, Broadcasting and Performing Arts

Graphic Designers and Illustrating Artists

Interior Designers

Insurance Agents and Brokers

Real Estate Agents and Salespersons

Retail and Wholesale Buyers

Cooks

Butchers and Meat Cutters, Retail and Wholesale

Bakers

Travel Counsellors

Early Childhood Educators and Assistants

Visiting Homemakers, Housekeepers and Related Occupations

Electricians (except Industrial and Power System)

Industrial Electricians

Telecommunications Installation and Repair Workers

Plumbers

Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers

Sheet Metal Workers

Carpenters

Cabinetmakers

Bricklayers

Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics

Aircraft Mechanics and Aircraft Inspectors

Motor Vehicle Body Repairers

Electric Appliance Servicers and Repairers

Stationary Engineers and Auxiliary Equipment Operators

Crane Operators

Heavy Equipment Operators (except Crane)

Nursery and Greenhouse Operators and Managers

Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Contractors and Managers

Papermaking and Coating Control Operators

Plastics Processing Machine Operators

Motor Vehicle Assemblers, Inspectors and Testers

Page 47: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Occupations With “Average” and “Limited” Prospects, 2002-2007

Average

Electronics Assemblers, Fabricators, Inspectors and Testers

Assemblers and Inspectors, Electrical Appliance, Apparatus and Equipment Manufacturing

Welders and Soldering Machine Operators

Machining Tool Operators

Metalworking Machine Operators

Limited

Secretaries (except Legal and Medical)

Legal Secretaries

General Office Clerks

Computer Operators

Tellers, Financial Services

Geologists, Geochemists and Geophysicists

Mathematicians, Statisticians and Actuaries

Forestry Technologists and Technicians

Drafting Technologists and Technicians

Air Pilots, Flight Engineers and Flying Instructors

Librarians

Elementary and Secondary School Teacher Assistants

Electrical Power Line and Cable Workers

Farmers and Farm Managers

Sewing Machine Operators

Aircraft Assemblers and Aircraft Assembly Inspectors

Page 48: The main forces shaping Ontario’s labour market are:

May 1, 2003 Labour Market Information and Research Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities

Some Further Sources of Labour Market Information

Ontario’s 2002-2007occupational projections and career information:www.ontariojobfutures.net

Ontario Government’s (MTCU) monthly Ontario Labour Market Report:To be added to mailing list contact: [email protected]

Federal government’s (HRDC) pan-Canadian labour market information site, recently updated and expanded:http://www.labourmarketinformation.ca

Federal Government (HRDC) Ontario regional labour market data: http://www.on.hrdc-drhc.gc.ca

Federal Government (HRDC) Toronto area labour market data: http://www.on.hrdc-drhc.gc.ca/english/offices/toronto/welcome_e.shtml

Forum of Labour Market Ministers’ reports: e-mail [email protected]