The Likud’s Return to Power By Doron Shultziner, Emory University.
-
Upload
noah-curtis -
Category
Documents
-
view
229 -
download
0
Transcript of The Likud’s Return to Power By Doron Shultziner, Emory University.
Likud’s Success Puzzle, 1977-2009 Likud won 7 out of 11 elections since 1977 Likud members held the position of Prime
Minister for over 21 years 24 years counting Olmert
Likud made a comeback in the 2009 elections from 12 to 27 seats
The 17th Knesset elections, 2006
Labor 19Likud 12Meretz
5Hadash 3
UTJ 6
Shas 12
Ra’amTa’al 4
Balad 3
Kadima 29
Right wing 50Left wing 34
Israel our Home 11
Religious Bloc 27
Center 36
Gil 7
National Union - NRP 9Left & Center 70
The shift to the right in elections 2009
Labor 19Likud 12Meretz
5Hadash 3
UTJ 6
Shas 12
Ra’amTa’al 4
Balad 3
Kadima 29Israel our Home 11
Religious Bloc 27
Gil 7
National Union - NRP 9
-8
-8
+15
+1 +4
-4
The 18th Knesset elections, February 2009
Labor 13Likud 27
Meretz 3
HADASH 4
UTJ 5
Shas 11
Ra’amTa’al 4
Balad 3
Kadima 28
Right wing 65Left wing 27
Israel our Home 15
NRP 3
Religious Bloc 23
Left & Center 55
Center 28
National Union 4
Netanyahu’s Coalition 2009
Labor 13Likud 27Meretz
3HADASH 4
UTJ 5
Shas 11
Ra’amTa’al 4
Balad 3
Kadima 28
narrow right wing coalition 61
Israel our Home 15
National Union 4
NRP 3
Religious Bloc 23
Possible ExplanationsGeneral Factors
Anti-establishment spirit
Attentive to marginalized groups
Economic policies: free market
Leadership and open elite
Corruption and Anti-corruption
Ideology Commitment to
Pristine Ideology and pragmatism
Greater Eretz Israel Iron Wall: emphasis on
military power
Israeli-Jewish Group Identity
Social PurposeSocial
PurposeConstitutive NormsConstitutive Norms
Relational Comparis
ons
Relational Comparis
ons
Cognitive Models
Cognitive Models
Unsympathetic or even hostile world (Siege Mentality);Israel is strong but vulnerable
Self-determination; Security;Jewishness
Non-Jews; Hostile Arab neighbors
Heuristics: use strong measures for security; preserve unity
Tapping into Group Heuristics: The Likud’s
Campaigns Categorization
and Stereotypes Monopoly over
security Monopoly over
patriotism Jewish Tradition
Negative Stereotypes of Opponents
Smolani (Pinko or Liberal)
Pro-Concession Pro-Palestinian Weak on Security Self-righteous Unpatriotic Tel-Aviv or Shenkin Anti-religious Latte and Sushi?
Elections 2006:
Smolmert;
Kadima (forward) to the 67’
lines
Elections 2009:
Concessions;
Divide Jerusalem
;Pro-
Palestinian;
Restraint; Weak on Security;Tel Aviv
Categorization and Stereotypes
Campaigns Emphasis on fear and sense of security
“Bibi will unite the people; together we will not be afraid”
“With Tzipi Livni and the Kadima clan, we will not survive”
“Tzipi Livni helped Hamas and Hezbollah get stronger and hurt us – she is not worthy”
Tzipi Livni is “selling us to the Palestinians” and “dangerous the security of Israel”
Patriotism and Unity: “Vote Likud if you are a patriot” Subtext: if you don’t vote Likud you are not a patriot “Likud – we are strong standing united” Likud jingle: “Only one can against all the Left”
When do Likud campaigns succeed?
Violence leads to increased reliance on heuristics of force reliance and preservation of unity
Elections: 1988 (1st Intifada), 1996 (Hamas terrorism), 2001 & 2003 (height of 2nd Intifada) (Berrebi & Klor, APSR 102, 2008)
1992, 1999, and 2006 perceived security was higher
What about the 2009 elections?
Winograd Report
Jan. 2008
Winograd Report
Jan. 2008
Gaza Operation Dec. 2008
Gaza Operation Dec. 2008Tzipi
Livni wins
Kadima Primaries Aug. 2008
Tzipi Livni wins
Kadima Primaries Aug. 2008
Second Lebanon War (July-
August) 2006
Second Lebanon War (July-
August) 2006