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11Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist1

The Labor Market Situation in February

―March 10, 2014

―Dr. Jennifer Hunt

Chief EconomistU.S. Department of Labor

Office of the Chief Economist

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22Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist2

Payroll survey: stronger than expected

1-month change, in thousands• February 2014

162• January 2014

145• December 2013

8612-month change, in thousands

• January 2013 to 2014:

2,190• Average:

183

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33Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist3

But the longer trend still shows steady growth

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44Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist4

Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS

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55Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist5

Employment growth by super-sector this month

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66Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist6

Employment growth by super-sector over the year

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77Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist7

Unemployment ticked back up…

January 2014 6.7%

January 2014 6.6%

December 20136.7%

February 2013: 7.7%

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88Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist8

…employment rate was flat

February 2014:58.8%

January 2014: 58.8%

December 2013:58.6%

February 2013: 58.6%

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99Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist9

LFP has been essentially flat since October

February 2014:63.0%

January 2014: 63.0%

December 2013:62.8%

February 2013: 63.5%

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1010Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist10

Not in Labor Force-94,000

Not in Labor Force84,856,000

Employed+42,000

Unemployed+223,000

More unemployed got jobs than dropped out

Employed139,093,000

Unemployed5,895,000

2,02

8,00

0 4,078,000

2,19

5,00

0 3,882,000

2,145,000

2,524,000

other 12,000 other 281,000

other 96,000

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1111Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist11

Long-term unemployment rate ticked back up, but remains highest since 1983

February 2014:2.5%

January 2014: 2.3%

December 2013:2.5%

February 2013: 3.0%

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1212Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist12

Summary of month

Back to the pre-shutdown pattern of steady employment growth – Keeps up with population growth– Doesn’t do anything to employment rate

Rise in long-term unemployed – Note: in recovery, expect short-term unemployed to get jobs first– Those short term that don’t, become long-term– But sign of change not consistent across duration, think random fluctuation

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1313Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist13

Let’s talk about the weather!

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1414Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist14

Let’s talk about the weather!

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1515Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist15

Sectors we have been following + weather

Construction – Dec: -22,000; Jan: +48,000; Feb: +15,000– All adjustment happened in December? (Earlier start to seasonal layoffs)

Found most of the accountants– Dec: -32,000; Jan: +5000; Feb: +16,000

Motion pictures continued volatile

Retail – Dec: +63,000; Jan: -13,000; Feb: -4000– Weather? Bounce-back from unusually high December?

Construction (employment) has shrugged off weather; retail unclear

For February, CEA calculates weather cost 23,000 jobs

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1616Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist16

Weather and trend conclusions

Construction (employment) has shrugged off weather

Retail unclear, possibly underlying slowing

For February, CEA calculates weather cost 23,000 jobs

My guess: back to the steady but insufficient growth of pre-shutdown– Especially given downward revisions to GDP 4th Quarter

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1717Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist17

Thank you!

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1818Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist18

Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough

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1919Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist19

Construction employment shrugged off weather(Perhaps seasonal layoffs simply occurred earlier than usual)

1-month change, in thousands• February 2014

15• January 2014

50• December 2013

-2012-month change, in thousands

• January 2013 to 2014:

152• Average:

13