The Invisible Internet How Wireless WANS, LANS and PANS and IP Anywhere Will Change Our World...

The Invisible Internet

How Wireless WANS, LANS and PANS and IP Anywhere Will Change Our World

Sponsor: Association for Corporate Growth

Speaker: John B. LandryLead Dog [email protected]

Copyright 2001: John B. Landry

Is there something going on here?• H1 2002 Forecasts

• 1 Billion Wireless Subscribers (was 2004!)• Wireless Phones > WW Wired Phones• Mobile Internet Users > PC Internet Users• Verizon offers 300Kbps CDMA Network

• Nov 2000: 10B WW SMS Messages Sent• Growth Rate: 50% / Month!

• 2005: 5.4B Installed Bluetooth Modules

• Samsung Demo’s Video Cell Phone

Source: Nokia, Merrill Lynch, NTT


Another Inflection Point? Oh No.. Not Again!

• Moore’s Law Continues• Processor Price Perfomance Doubles Every 18 Months

• Gilder’s Law Continues• Bandwidth Multiplies 3X Every 3 Years

• Metcalfe’s Law Continues• The Value of a Network Increases to the Square

of the Number of Participants

• IBM’s Law Continues• Storage Price Performance Doubles Every 12 Months

All These Innovations Are Now Being Applied to Wireless!


Comic Strip?.. Or Reality Check?


LANPAN

LAN

WANGeographyOff-CampusOpen Areas

On-CampusOffice, Home, School, Airport, Hotel

Personal SpaceOffice, Briefcase, Person

TechnologyOff-CampusCellular – Kilometers

On-Campus802.11b10’s – 100’s Meters

Personal SpaceBlueTooth1-10 Meters

Agenda: Understanding Wireless…for Fun & Profit


Mobile Business Drivers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Telecommuters Mobile data collectors

Mobile professionals Work extenders

New Business ExpansionTechnology Advances

– Better mobile devices and supporting connectivity software

– High-speed Internet accessGrowing Mobile SolutionsIndividual Adoption of

Mobile DevicesBlurring of

Personal/Professional Time

U.S. Mobile Worker Market


PDAsegm ent

PCcom panion

segm ent

Personalcom panion

segm ent

Handheld com panionm arket

2000 - 9 .4m m2004 - 32.0m m

Pentablet

segm ent

Pennotepadsegm ent

Keypadhandheldsegm ent

Vertical applicationdevice m arket2000 - 2 .2m m2004 - 4 .8m m

Sm art phonem arket

2000 - 0 .5m m2004 - 22.9m m

Sm art handhelddevice m arket2000 - 12.1m m2004 - 60.3m m

SHD Projected Growth RatesSource: IDC

36%CAGR

22%CAGR

163%CAGR

49%CAGR


Smart Phone Growth Soars Worldwide!

0

5

10

15

20

25

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Rest of World

A/P

Japan

Western Europe

US

Europe will pioneer launch followed quickly by Japan, AP and US

Smart phone products will be built first on GSM, then migrated to 2.5G and 3G wireless networks

Current browser phones will slow adoption of SmartPhones

Symbian, Microsoft, and Palm all investing heavily in this area


The “Off-Campus” Wireless ‘Net G2.5 and G3 Networks Are Happening Here!

Jumping to Conclusions? Verizon & Sprint Customers Win.. AT&T, Metricom and Non-CDMA Customers Lose

LANPAN

LAN

WAN


Smaller Size LargerInfo Access Usage Info Creation Higher Mobility Lower Phone Manufacturer ComputerSubsidized Distribution Direct

Cell Phone Smart Handheld Notebook

Smart Handheld Devices


Samsung’s Color VOD PhoneIntroduced 5/16/2001!

CDMA2000 1x (Verizon/Sprint PCS) 144Kbps, 200,000 Colors Built-in Camera, MPEG4 Decoder, Stereo Player


Handheld Companions OS Platform Battles Continue

0%10%

20%30%

40%50%

60%70%

80%90%

100%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Other Epoc Windows CE Palm OS

Palm OS will continue to dominate

Windows CE gains share with Pocket PC

EPOC (Symbian) maintains niche status and expands with new form factors


Personal Companions Go Wireless

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Pers. Companions

Wireless

Wireless Includes Integrated (Palm VII) and Add-Ons (Novatel)

Over 50% wireless in 2004

Low-end products remains strong diluting wireless

Integrated voice confuses market segmentation


Samsung SPH-1300Hybrid Wireless Digital Assistant

• 8-bit Color Display (160x240)• Size: 4.9” x 2.3” x .82” • Weight: 5.5 oz

• On-screen Keypad + Graffiti-Pad• Palm Apps + Voice Memo, Voice Dialing, Speakerphone• Active PDA while on phone!

• Shipping: September 2001• Price: “about same as Palm PDA”


Handspring’s VisorPhonePalm OS World-Phone & Wireless Modem

• A Better Mobile Phone?• Dial from Address Book• Speed Dial with a tap!• Caller ID and Log• Simple Conference Calling

•Wireless Internet Access• 14.4 GSM Cell Modem• eMail & Web Surfing

•Short Message Service• SMS Messages Booming• Pager-like Messages


The Key Inhibitors: UX and Speed

The UX (User Experience) Lessons– Microsoft went nowhere until Windows – WWW went nowhere till Mosaic – AOL, Yahoo are an even better UX!

Mobile Data Success Requires a Dramatically Better (and faster) UX!– Input Methods:

• Keys, Keypads (RIM, Ericsson’s Chatboard, Handwriting Reco, TouchScreen, Speech Reco

– Output Displays: • 100 x 65 large graphic• 120 x 100 large graphics 4 - 8 grey levels• 160 x 120 256 colors

– or a BFHRC Display using Bluetooth!


The “On-Campus” Wireless ‘Net Office, Home, School, Airport, Hotel

• IEEE 802.11b Wireless LANs• 2.4ghz Band – 11Mbps• Viable Alternative to Wired LANS• Components

• Access Point / Gateway Bridge• Client: PCMCIA or Integrated

– Your Home LAN Infrastructure?

• IEEE 802.11a Wireless LANs• 5ghz Band - 54Mbps! • Shorter Range, More Power• Same Money.. But No

Interoperability!• Cisco’s Acquisition of Radiata• Wireless Backbone Networks?


•600mhz Crusoe CPU with 128/256MB RAM, 10-30GB HD, 10" TFT screen (1280x600), Windows ME, 1 IEEE1394 (FireWire/iLink) video port, PCMCIA Type II slot, 56Kb modem, LaLaVoice Japanese speech recognition software, 2 USB ports, and Bluetooth wireless, 3.5-4.5 hour battery

Toshiba’s LibrettoShape of things to come?.. the 'small book'


Microsoft’s Tablet PCThe Concept of “Tablet Computing”

•Windows Computer (Whistler)•Word, Excel, PowerPoint, IE•Primary Computer w/ stored eMail, Calendar, Databases, etc.•Writing Rec, but Ink as Ink!•Sounds like Pen Computing?

•Battery Life•Display Resolution•Recognition•Memory

•Wireless 802.11 & Bluetooth


•Video Family Post-It Notes•eMail & Web Surfing•Narrowcasted News•Customized Radio•Home Security•Food Management•Digital Cook Book / Timer•Server?

Why? The fridge is the natural place for communication in every family.

Electrolux’s ScreenFridge


Home LANs & Convergence?

•Fridge Server:• Store & Deliver Audio, Photos, Video• Encode/Store Broadcast Content (TIVO, Replay)

•Computers:•PCs, Game Consoles,•Appliances

•HDTV Monitors•TV:

• Players of Encoded & CATV content

Home Wireless IP NetworkHome Wireless IP Network

CATVModem

Rec/AMP

MP3Appl

MSX Box

PCFridgeServer

Monitor

TVHDTVTuner

CATV Network

broadcast

InternetInternet


THINK is a computer-aided drug design program that models interaction between potential drug molecules and a target protein that is involved in the growth of cnacer. Finding positive interactions… could lead to a cure.”

Reverse Mobility Moving the Computation… Not the Computer

ComputationalNapster… Sell / Donate your idle cycles!

Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence


Watch Out! Massive Growth Ahead! – Short range wireless technology– Small size, low cost ($5 target)– Up to 720 kbps (also supports voice)– Low power consumption– Massive industry support– Spec (1.1) should freeze NOW..

And then the fun begins!

Bluetooth enables– Wireless connectivity– Data synchronization– Seamless service

Bluetooth: No Flash in the PAN! LAN

PAN

LAN

WAN


Bluetooth Enabled Devices:Projected Annual Shipments

• Industry Convergence– 9 Promoter Companies

• 3Com, Ericsson, IBM, Intel, Lucent, Microsoft, Motorola, Nokia and Toshiba

– 2000+ Adopter Co’s Tech Specs

– Range 10/100m– Gross bit rate 1Mbps– Max Asymmetric data

rate - 723kbps– Max voice channels per

link - 3– Max Piconets - 8

0200400600800

1000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Min

MinMax

Bluetooth Enabled Device Shipments(Millions)


Bluetooth Application ExamplesWhy did the cell phone call the microwave?

Headset to phone connection

Access to phone book from PDA/HPC

Updating Navigation equipment from computer route planner

Connection of computer to mouse, video camera, still camera...

Synchronisation of portable devices with desktop PC

IBM’s Linux Watch


Camera: Custom CMOS sensor,

100 FPSProcessor: Proprietary ARM-based ASIC at 70 MHzCommunication device: Bluetooth transceiverBattery: TBAInk cartridge: Standard DIN 16654Illumination: IR LEDResolution: 0.03 mmWeight: 45g

Paper quality: StandardPrinting technique: Standard offsetPattern ink: Standard blackDot spacing: Nominally 0.3 mm (0.01 inch.)Total pattern size: 73 000 000 000 000 letter size pagesMinimum readable pattern area: 2x2 mm (0.08x0.08 inch)

Extreme Bluetooth: Anoto Revolutionizing Writing Forever!!


In Summary

The New Wireless Internet, which extends the reach and capabilities of the wired Internet, will be the driver of another boom in innovation and

wealth creation.

Once again this massively disruptive technology will upset traditional business models and wreak havoc on conventional assumptions about work,

home, family life and education.

You’ve been warned!

The Invisible Internet How Wireless WANS, LANS and PANS and IP Anywhere Will Change Our World...

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