THE INSTITUTEFOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES

T he Institute for National Security Studies launches and engages in innovative, relevant, high-quality research that shapes the public

discourse of issues on Israel's national security agenda, and provides policy analysis and recommendations to decision makers, public leaders, and the strategic community, both in Israel and abroad. As part of its mission, it is committed to encourage new ways of thinking and expand the traditional contours of establishment analysis.

INSS researchers are guided by the four core values of professionalism, relevance, intellectual independence, and teamwork. Adhering to the highest standards of research and analysis, they are engaged in exploring the most pressing issues of Israel’s national security, and contribute through creative and innovative thinking to national security policymaking. Professional integrity and intellectual rigor underlie their work at INSS, as they seek to share ideas and learn from one another while retaining their belief in the value of their own ideas.

M ISSION

issues that are already part of the public discourse and those that portend future importance, INSS both responds to and helps shape the national security agenda.

Through its policy-oriented research, INSS aims to inform and influence Israel's decision makers and contribute to sound decision making processes that integrate knowledge, assessments, and new ways of thinking. INSS activity includes publications, conferences, seminars, war games and simulations, strategic dialogues, government and military briefings, briefings to the media and to the diplomatic corps, and consulting activity. INSS is also a primary resource for individuals and organizations dealing with Israeli national security strategy.

The Institute's greatest asset is its researchers, most of whom have rich backgrounds in foreign affairs, security, international relations, and policymaking. Encompassing renowned academics and practitioners alike, many among the staff have held senior positions in various public

T he Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) was established in 2006, incorporating the Jaffee

Center for Strategic Studies founded at Tel Aviv University in 1977 by Major General (ret.) Aharon Yariv, former chief of Military Intelligence (1964-72) and Minister of Information for Prime Minister Rabin (1974-76). As an independent, non-partisan professional think tank operating outside the governmental political and security establishment, INSS is excellently positioned to analyze Israel's strategic situation and devise creative policy approaches.

Conceiving of strategy as a dynamic interdisciplinary field that involves intellectual, political, military, economic, and social resources, INSS focuses on the strategic challenges facing the State of Israel. The research conducted at INSS enriches the public debate of issues related to Israel's national security, which in turn endows governmental deliberations with a greater awareness of public opinion on these fundamental matters. By probing

A BOUT INSS

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POLICY-ORIENTED RESEARCH

W hile it is debatable whether the State of Israel has ever enjoyed a quiet period, experts agree that the immediate challenges on

Israel’s national security agenda are qualitatively different from previous predicaments and demand new strategic approaches. There is an urgent need to reassess Israel’s current strategic environment and propose how Israel might best navigate the challenges it confronts. This is precisely the role of INSS, where basic research complements analysis of issues of the day. The practical application of INSS research takes the form of “out of the box” thinking and the design of policy options for decision makers in government, the defense establishment, the strategic community, and the private sector.

The most pressing issues related to Israel’s national security selected by the Director of INSS as principal research fields for the coming period include: the Iranian nuclear threat, revolutionary changes in the Arab world, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and new paradigms to attain a two-state reality, US-Israel relations and the future of the “special relationship,” the delegitimization of Israel, and cyber warfare.

INSS research rests on pluralism and a free exchange of ideas among the researchers. The heterogeneous research staff ensures that INSS does not assume either a particular political viewpoint or unified ideological outlook.

institutions, including the IDF, the Prime Minister's Office, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, or have served as scholars in distinguished academic institutions in the United States and in Europe, as well as in Israel.

Operating as an independent nonprofit public benefit company, INSS is defined as an external institute affiliated with Tel Aviv University, with full research, budgetary, and administrative autonomy. Through its association with Tel Aviv University, INSS enjoys the benefits of working with specific academic programs at the University with which it has common research interests, among them the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, the Blavatnik School of Computer Science, and the Buchmann Faculty of Law.

INSS is the only Israeli institute ranked among the world’s leading think tanks and listed as one of the world’s fifty leading institutes in the field of security and international affairs.

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T he Institute’s Board of Directors is chaired by Frank Lowy, AC, of Australia, co-founder and chairman of the Westfield Group and Chairman of the Lowy Institute for International Policy (Australia). The Board includes nine

other members with backgrounds in academia, diplomacy, foreign affairs, security, and business:

• Prof. Itamar Rabinovich, Vice Chairman• Alfred Akirov• Zeev Feldman• Ambassador Martin Indyk• Prof. Joseph Klafter, President of Tel Aviv University• David Kolitz• David Lowy• Doron Livnat• Prof. Aron Shai, Rector of Tel Aviv University• Rami Ungar

B OARD OF DIRECTORS

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• Lord David Alliance• Aaron Applbaum• Robert Asher• David Avital• Hillel Bachrach• Nissan Boury• Charles Bronfman• Sir Trevor Chinn• Abby Cohen• Lester Crown• Craig Darian• Mick Davis• Michael Diamond

• Sander and Tracy Gerber• Michael Goddard• Gary Goldberg• Martin Goldberg• Steven D. Goldberg• Martin Green• Jeffrey Greene• Martin Gross• Josh Guberman• Harry Habermann• Roger Hertog• Sid Lapidus• Edward C. Levy

INSS sponsors events abroad for members of the Board of Trustees and friends of INSS, and Trustees are invited to the Institute’s conferences and many of its strategic dialogues.

• Harold Levy• Glen Lewy• Nathan Lustman• Gila and Adam Milstein• Amb. Alfred Moses• Joseph and Jeanette

Neubauer• Robin Chemers Neustein• Dan Och• Michael Perlman• Albert and Marilyn

Pollans• Hermann Reich

T he International Board of Trustees comprises a group of distinguished individuals, renowned in their fields, who support INSS as part of their commitment to the national security of the State of Israel. The Chairman of

the Board is Jonathon Jacobson of Boston, Massachusetts, founder, Chief Investment Officer, and CEO of Highfields Capital Management LP. Jeffrey Silverman is the Vice Chairman of the Board of Trustees. The other members of the Board of Trustees are:

B OARD OF TRUSTEES

• Marcia Riklis• Israel and Sari Roizman• Haim Saban• Michael Sonnenfeldt• Michael Steinhardt• Guillermo Strauss• Albert Sweet• Doron Valero• Michael Webber• Martin Whitman• Robert Wiener

INTERNATIONAL

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B OARD OF TRUSTEESISRAELI

I n September 2014 INSS launched an Israeli Board of Trustees, formed to support the Institute’s efforts to enrich the public debate in Israel and abroad on issues relating to Israel’s national security. The Board is made up of leading figures from

Israel’s business community committed to the active enhancement of Israel’s welfare and security. Pinchas (Pini) Cohen, Chairman of America Israel, one of Israel’s leading real estate development and investment companies, is the Chairman of the Israeli Board. The other members of the Board are:

• Alfred Akirov• Danna Azrieli • Yossi Bachar • Roy Ben Yami• Sir Ronald Cohen• Rony Davidoff • Boaz Dotan• David Fattal • Yossi Hackmey • Yair Hamburger • Shmuel Harlap • Natan Hetz • Morris Kahn • Chaim Katzman • David Kolitz

• Doron Livnat • Zvi Livnat• Dan Moskovitz• Rami Nussbaum • Uri Rapoport• Koby Richter • Pini Rubin• Yair Seroussi • Meir Shamir • Harel Shapira • Gad Somekh• Gideon Tadmor• Moshe Tzur • Rami Ungar • Dudi Weisman

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Principal INSS publications:Strategic Survey for Israel, an annual book that surveys major developments that impact on Israel’s strategic environment and suggests how Israel might navigate current and prospective national security challenges.

Memoranda are monograph-length analytical studies of timely issues with policy relevant implications.

Strategic Assessment, the INSS quarterly journal, publishes essays on recent events and ongoing trends related to Israel’s strategic situation.

Military and Strategic Affairs is a journal published three times a year on Israel’s military challenges.

INSS Insight is issued once or twice weekly as an e-publication to provide a quick response to timely events.

Recent INSS books: Eliav Lieblich with Owen Alterman, Transnational Asymmetric Armed Conflict under International Humanitarian Law: Key Contemporary Challenges

Anat Kurz and Shlomo Brom, eds., The Lessons of Operation Protective Edge

Recent INSS memoranda:Oded Eran, Dan Vardi, Itamar Cohen, Political Feasibility of Israeli Natural Gas Exports to Turkey

Azriel Bermant, The Russian and Iranian Missile Threats: Implications for NATO Missile Defense

Emily B. Landau and Anat Kurz, eds., The Interim Deal on the Iranian Nuclear Program: Toward a Comprehensive Solution?

Pnina Sharvit Baruch and Anat Kurz, eds., Law and National Security: Selected Issues

Yoram Schweitzer and Aviv Oreg, Al-Qaeda’s Odyssey to the Global Jihad

Military and Strategic Affairs

Volume 5 | N

o. 1 | May 2013

Military andStrategic AffairsVolume 5 | No. 1 | May 2013

INCORPORATING THE JAFFEECENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES b

המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומיTHE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIEScd

INCORPORATING THE JAFFEECENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES b

המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומיTHE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIEScd

Legal Transparency as a National Security StrategyYoni Eshpar

The E�ect of Cyberwar Technologies on Force Buildup:

The Israeli CaseGil BaramThe Classic Cyber Defense Methods Have Failed – What Comes Next?

Amir Averbuch and Gabi SiboniThe Proliferation of Weapons in Cyberspace

Daniel Cohen and Aviv RotbartLessons from the Iron DomeYiftah S. ShapirDetermining Norms for Warfare in New Situations

Asa Kasher and Amos YadlinDuqu’s Dilemma: The Ambiguity Assertion and

the Futility of Sanitized CyberwarMatthew Crosston

ISSN 2307-193X (print) • E-ISSN 2307-8634 (online)

ISSN 2307-193X (print) • E-ISSN 2307-8634 (online)

P UBLICATIONS

INCORPORATING THE JAFFEECENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES b

המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומיTHE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIEScd

Leading from Behind:

The “Obama Doctrine” and US Policy in the Middle East| Sanford Lako�

Eleven Years to the Arab Peace Initiative:

Time for an Israeli Regional Strategy| Ilai Alon and Gilead Sher

The Emergence of the Sunni Axis in the Middle East| Yoel Guzansky and Gallia Lindenstrauss

Islam and Democracy: Can the Two Walk Together?| Yoav Rosenberg

The US and Israel on Iran: Whither the (Dis)Agreement?| Ephraim Kam

Walking a Fine Line: Israel, India, and Iran| Yiftah S. ShapirResponse Essays

Civilian Casualties of a Military Strike in Iran| Ephraim Asculai

If it Comes to Force: A Credible Cost-Bene�t Analysis of the Military Option against Iran

| Amos Yadlin, Emily B. Landau, and Avner Golov

Volume 16 | No. 1 | April 2013

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A s a reaction to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Tel Aviv University decided sometime in 1975 to

establish a center for security studies. A number of individuals within and outside the University community posited that one possible reason for Israel’s thorough surprise on October 6, 1973 was that no institution outside the Israeli “establishment” had assumed the responsibility of evaluating the premises on which government policy was based – premises that also guided the planning and conduct of Israel’s defense establishment. Had such a research institute existed prior to the 1973 War, it might have questioned the assumptions leading to the intelligence assessment that war was unlikely.

The effort to establish such a center began in earnest in late 1976 when Prof. Haim Ben Shahar, then president of the University, and Prof. Zvi Yavetz, then dean of Humanities, heard that Major General (ret.) Aharon (Ahrale) Yariv had decided to abandon his brief career in Israeli politics. Yariv was known to combine military experience with statesman-like instincts. He was also extremely charismatic and charming – an embodiment of “an officer and a gentleman.” With his uncompromising honesty and integrity, he felt unfit for the demands of political life.

The University delegation worked diligently to persuade Yariv to help realize the University’s efforts to study national security affairs. In response to the overture, Yariv insisted that the newly established

institute be completely independent, and on that basis the Center for Strategic Studies was launched in early 1978. In 1983, the Center was renamed the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies.

A number of decisions about the Center’s structure were made from the outset. The most important of these was that the Center would not be structured along “country desks” that corresponded to Israel’s neighboring states. Instead, the Center adopted a thematic structure, built on the principal issues that it proposed to address: the Middle East military balance, US policy in the Middle East, international terrorism, and public opinion and national security. These were supplemented in later years by additional long term projects, such as regional security and arms control, and many research projects of more limited duration devoted to specific issues.

The road to serious recognition of the Jaffee Center in the Israeli military and academic scene proved to be an uphill battle. While Yariv, as the founder and first head of the Center, enjoyed huge personal prestige, as an institution the new Center had yet to prove that it should be granted

a place in Israel’s security debate. Within a few years, however, the Center began to acquire a reputation for groundbreaking and taboo-breaching studies of key aspects of Israel’s national security. These included Aryeh Shalev’s book The West Bank: Line of Defense, which focused on the territorial dimensions of Israeli security, Shai Feldman’s book Israeli Nuclear Deterrence, on Israel’s nuclear policy, and Mark Heller’s book A Palestinian State: The Implications for Israel, which analyzed the ramifications of establishing an independent Palestinian state.

Governmental resistance to the Center’s involvement in security-related deliberations gradually diminished, and the Center became increasingly perceived as “neutral ground” by different arms of the Israeli defense establishment. By the late 1990s, the Center supplemented its books, monographs, conferences, and brainstorming sessions with additional forums for analysis and evaluation. Beginning in early 1998, Strategic Assessment was launched as the Center’s quarterly. In the beginning of the 2000s additional publications and research activities joined the list, and helped the Center attain its standing as Israel’s foremost research institute in national security affairs.

L OOKING BACK

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T o further facilitate the recruitment, training, and mentoring of the next generation of researchers and policy experts, INSS has launched the Next Generation Program. The addition of

researchers at earlier stages of their careers to the more experienced INSS research staff will help build a stronger staff, both for INSS and for future policymaking offices in Israel. Some of these entry and mid-level researchers may continue their careers at INSS; others who assume positions in government or elsewhere in strategy-related fields will be able to strengthen the connection between INSS and the decision making establishment. The program thus creates a framework at INSS for an evolving research staff and the regular injection of new conceptual approaches, research methodologies, and analytical tools. Particularly in light of the significant changes in the Middle East as well as in the global system, the perspective of a new generation of thinkers is especially important to the Instiute, and represents a vital element in any national security policymaking.

L OOKING AHEAD

THE

NEXT GENERATIONPROGRAM

THE

NEUBAUERRESEARCH ASSOCIATES PROGRAM

T he Neubauer Research Associates Program was launched in 2006 by the Philadelphia-based Joseph and Jeanette Neubauer Foundation. The Neubauer Program was created to engage

distinguished doctoral candidates embarking on an academic career. These part-time appointments are suitable for researchers working on their dissertations in subjects related to security studies. Affiliation with INSS allows students to complete the dissertation process while acquiring experience in their areas of specialization as research assistants to INSS senior research fellows. Since its inception, seven Neubauer associates continued at INSS in a research capacity, while others have continued their careers in the National Security Council; academic institutions in Israel; and government offices.

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Iranian Nuclearization: The Ramifications for Israel Arms Control and Regional Security ProgramThe ramifications of Iranian nuclearization for Israel, the region, and the world at large form a current thrust of the INSS program. Research focuses on sanctions efforts, the feasibility and consequences of a military strike on Iran, the larger threat of Iran’s hegemonic ambitions, and the threat of nuclear proliferation in the region should Iran attain military nuclear capability. These and other issues are explored in the articles compiled in the recent monograph Arms Control and National Security: New Horizons.

Jumpstarting the Israeli-Palestinian Process: A Call for New ParadigmsProgram on Israeli-Palestinian RelationsThe Palestinian issue, at the heart of Israel’s strategic posture and security agenda, appears frozen, with few prospects for a political breakthrough, despite intense US efforts. The program focuses on creative measures with which Israel might approach the current impasse in the negotiations in order to secure its future as a democratic Jewish state. Hamas and the Gaza situation were the subject of the collection of essays The Lessons of Operation Protective Edge.

International law and Asymmetric WarfareProgram on Law and National SecurityThe legal system is increasingly involved in national security decision making, and more and more state actions on the international plane are examined in light of legal considerations. Consequently, it is imperative to weigh the legal aspects of security decisions. The goal of the program is to study legal issues relating to national security and policy, including the use of force, the laws of armed conflict, the implementation of security measures, cyber security, and the law of the sea.

The Center for Applied Negotiations (CAN)CAN was established within INSS to promote innovative and pragmatic approaches for tackling some of today’s most pressing challenges in the regional and global diplomatic arena. Relying on senior practitioners who were directly involved in major negotiations and dispute resolution processes, the center strives to develop creative research and practical tools in the field of conflict resolution and negotiation. “The Israeli-Palestinian Negotiation File,” compiled by CAN, has become a key resource for the most senior decision makers in Israel.

R ESEARCH PROGRAMS

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Cyberspace: The Newest Warfare DomainProgram on Cyber SecurityIsrael’s national security is in large measure a function of its ability to defend its critical systems from cyber attacks. The program addresses cyber-related threats and opportunities, and aims to draft guidelines for a national policy in cyber security and a doctrine of warfare in the cyber realm. Leading experts in cyber security appeared at the INSS-CSFI conference “Defensive Cyberspace Operations and Intelligence.”

Security and “Social Justice"Program on the IDF, Israeli Society, and Public OpinionComplementing external threat assess-ments and military balance considerations in Israel’s security doctrine are internal challenges that confront Israeli society. One major focus of the program is soci-ety’s approach to the IDF, including the demand that all eligible citizens share the obligation of military service. A second focus is the longstanding INSS Nation-al Security and Public Opinion Project. Surveys that provide data on Israeli public opinion on various national security issues are analyzed for their policy implications for Israel’s leadership.

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Terrorism, Politics, and what Lies Between ThemProgram on Terrorism and Low Intensity ConflictPalestinian militancy, Hizbollah, and other manifestations of Islamic terrorism and global jihad continue to confront Israel with an ongoing security challenge. The INSS program studies the impact of the “Arab Spring” on terrorist groups, al-Qaeda activity, and the political power of non-state actors. The program also studies the complex issue in Israel of redeeming captives and the possibility of instituting binding national guidelines for the future, and launched a conference series on the subject.

The Home Front under FireProgram on Homeland SecurityOperation Pillar of Defense was Israel’s most recent battle waged to attain security for its civilian population. The INSS program deals with the diverse aspects of the Israeli home front and its preparedness for civilian crises, wars, and large scale terror activities, as well as natural disasters. In collaboration with the Ministry of Defense, INSS hosts an annual conference on the preparedness of the home front.

The Military Component of Israel’s Security ConceptProgram on Military and Strategic AffairsChanges in Israel’s strategic environment demand a thorough review of the military component of Israel’s security concept. The program studies the principles underlying IDF force development and force deployment, and their impact on the military’s ability to provide an appropriate response to the range of threats facing the country. INSS researchers work closely with units in the IDF to tackle the relevant questions, and the Military and Strategic Affairs journal is published within the framework of the program.

Middle East Military Balance ProjectThe Middle East Military Balance Project constitutes a computerized database of twenty-two Middle East armed forces, defense infrastructures, and arms transactions. The database, published in full on the INSS website, is one of its kind, and is a vital tool for research on the military aspects of the challenges that exist in Israel’s greater strategic environment.

R ESEARCH PROGRAMS (cont.)

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R ESEARCH PROGRAMS (cont.)

Looking EastwardProgram on Israel-China RelationsChina’s involvement in the Middle East has grown steadily over the past two decades, posing both challenges and opportunities before Israel. China’s booming economy and newly acquired technological capabilities, along with its direct contact with regional leaders, make it an increasingly important actor in the area. The program, in collaboration with the Israel Institute, aims to enhance the knowledge about China’s involvement in the Middle East and provide Israeli decision makers with policy recommendations regarding China.

The Arab Minority in the Jewish State Neubauer Program on Israeli ArabsThe status of the Arab minority in Israel poses a political and social challenge to the state, bearing on Israel’s overall national security. In addition, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has a direct impact on the Israeli Arab population. This program studies the basic undercurrents of Israel’s Arab population in general and the sector’s particular segments, exploring what can be done to foster a favorable atmosphere and positive relations between the Jewish majority and the Arab minority.

How Much Can Money Buy?Neubauer Program on Economics and National SecurityEconomic prospects in Israel influence national security and the capacity to attain strategic goals on issues ranging from the defense budget and the financial cost of conflicts to the political consequences of sanctions and boycotts and the impact of economic growth on stability in the neighboring Arab countries. With the understanding that economics constitute a major component of strategic analysis, the program focuses on the interface between economy, society, politics, and national security.

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I NSS sponsors both public conferences and closed seminars dealing with key issues on Israel’s national security

agenda and the stability of the Middle East. Most are held at INSS and feature leading experts and invited professionals from Israel and abroad.

Among the recent INSS events:

• “Security Challenges of the 21st Century,” the major INSS annual international conference; in 2015, President Reuven (Ruvi) Rivlin opened the conference.

• “Defensive Cyberspace Operations & Intelligence,” an annual conference in conjunction with the Cyber Security Forum Initiative; in 2015 the joint conference took place in Washington, D.C.

• “The Islamic State: Characteristics, Challenges, and Possible Responses,” on the threat posed by an increasingly powerful non-state actor.

• “Increased US Pressure on Iran? Implications of the Sanctions Legislation on the Nuclear Talks and on US-Israel Relations” and “Developments in the Nuclear Talks with Iran: The Policy of the Obama Administration and Implications for the Middle East,” two recent conferences on the Iranian nuclear challenge.

• “The Palestinian Arena: Twists and Turns,” on approaches to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in light of the frozen political process.

• “The Economic Ties between Israel and China,” in cooperation with the Israel Institute, part of the INSS program on the development of Israel-China relations.

E VENTS

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AMOS YADLIN, Executive Director of INSSGeneral (ret.) Amos Yadlin assumed the position of Director of INSS in November 2011. Following a term as head of Military Intelligence, he retired in 2010 from the IDF after more than forty years of service. Among his previous positions, he served as deputy commander of the Israel Air Force, Israel’s military attaché in Washington, and commander of the IDF Military Colleges and the National Defense College. He participated in the Yom Kippur War, Operation Peace for the Galilee, and Operation Tammuz – the destruction of the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq. General (ret.) Yadlin has written on national security, force development, intelligence, civil-military relations, and the military ethics of fighting terror.

UDI DEKEL, Managing DirectorBrig. Gen. (res.) Dekel was head of the negotiations team with the Palestinians in the Annapolis process. His last post in the IDF was head of Strategic Planning in the Planning Directorate of the General Staff. At INSS his research focuses on decision making processes in Israel; the peace process; and strategic trends in the Middle East.

ORLY HAYARDENY, Deputy Director for Finance and DevelopmentMs. Hayardeny has extensive experience in the financial and business sector. Before coming to INSS she served as Chief Financial Officer at FIBI Holdings Ltd, which holds the First International Bank of Israel (FIBI). She also serves as a director in public and private companies.

ANAT KURZ, Director of ResearchDr. Kurz has lectured and published widely on insurgency-related issues, sub-state political organizations, and terrorism as a strategy of warfare. Her research focuses on sub-state conflict resolution and the Palestinian national movement, and she is active in Track II talks on the Middle East peace process. She co-edited the annual Strategic Survey for Israel series (2009-2014).

E XECUTIVE TEAM

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SHLOMO BROMFormer director of strategic planning in the IDF General Staff, Brig. Gen. (ret.) Brom participated in peace negotiations with the Palestinians, Jordan, and Syria, and served as deputy to the national security advisor. He directs the INSS program on Israeli-Palestinian relations, and he co-edited the Strategic Survey for Israel series (2009-2014).

OWEN ALTERMANMr. Alterman specializes in Israel’s relations with the United States and other issues of geopolitics and strategic planning. A lawyer by training, he has extensive experience in both the private and non-profit sectors and has worked in a variety of international settings, from the law firm of Allen & Overy LLP to the US Peace Corps.

EPHRAIM ASCULAIDr. Asculai worked at the Israel Atomic Energy Commission for over forty years, including a term at the International Atomic Energy Agency. He participated in the deliberations toward conclusion of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and worked on the establishment of its verification mechanism. His research focuses on strategies for stemming WMD proliferation.

YEHUDA BEN MEIRA psychologist and an attorney, Dr. Ben Meir was a member of Knesset and deputy minister of foreign affairs in the Begin and Shamir governments. Editor of INSS Insight, he directs the National Security and Public Opinion Project at INSS. His fields of expertise are civil-military relations and public opinion in Israel.

AZRIEL BERMANTDr. Bermant specializes in US arms control policy, NATO missile defense policy, and nuclear weapons proliferation. He is also an expert on Israel’s relations with Europe, and wrote his doctoral thesis on Margaret Thatcher and the Arab-Israeli conflict. For nearly a decade he worked as a writer, editor, and translator for Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

BENEDETTA BERTIDr. Berti specializes in terrorism and political violence in the Middle East, focusing specifically on political integration of armed groups, democratization, and social movements and civil society, as well as Palestinian, Lebanese, and Syrian politics. She is a Young Atlanticist at the Atlantic Council, and a member of the faculty at Tel Aviv University.

R ESEARCH TEAM

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ODED ERANDr. Eran served as World Jewish Congress Representative in Israel and Secretary General of the WJC Israel Branch. He was Israel’s ambassador to the European Union (covering NATO as well); Israel’s ambassador to Jordan; and head of Israel’s negotiations team with the Palestinians. He directs the INSS programs on US-Israel relations and Israel’s energy resources.

SHMUEL EVENAn economist specializing in Middle East security issues, Dr. Even is a strategic and economic consultant to government offices and private companies in Israel. His publications deal with Middle East economies, Israel’s defense budget, the world oil market, intelligence, and terrorism. He has also written about cyber security and cyber strategies for Israel.

YAIR EVRONProf. Evron has taught international relations at Tel Aviv University, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and leading universities abroad. He has published extensively on international politics, strategic affairs, the Arab-Israeli conflict, nuclear proliferation, arms control, and international security regimes.

YOEL GUZANSKYMr. Guzansky joined INSS after coordinating work on the Iranian nuclear challenge at the National Security Council. He helped devise a public diplomacy strategy with regard to Iran, and dealt with integration of intelligence assessments and a national security assessment vis-à-vis Iran. At INSS his research focuses on the Gulf states, Iran, and inter-Arab issues.

MEIR ELRANBrig. Gen. (ret.) Elran served as deputy head of IDF Military Intelligence and senior advisor in Israel’s National Security Council and several government ministries. His fields of research are Israel’s home front, national resilience, and domestic issues related to national security. He directs the INSS program on homeland security.

DAVID FRIEDMANDr. Friedman served in the IDF and Israel’s Ministry of Defense for nearly twenty-five years, and was responsible for R&D projects in the field of chemical and biological defense. His research focuses on nonconventional terrorism, with particular attention to strategies for confronting bioterrorism and preventing the proliferation of biological weapons to terrorist groups.

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GALLIA LINDENSTRAUSSDr. Lindenstrauss specializes in Turkish foreign policy, ethnic conflicts, ethno-national diasporas, and military interventions. She lectures at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya. As a post-doctoral fellow at the Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations at Hebrew University, Dr. Lindenstrauss studied the Armenian diaspora.

MARK A. HELLERA principal research associate at INSS and editor of Strategic Assessment, Dr. Heller has taught international relations at Tel Aviv University and at leading universities in the United States. He has written extensively on Middle Eastern political and strategic issues. His areas of expertise include Israeli-Palestinian relations and Euro-Mediterranean affairs.

EMILY B. LANDAUDr. Landau’s research focuses on new trends in arms control thinking, particularly regarding nuclear proliferation, Middle East regional security, the Iranian threat, and the challenge from North Korea. Director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program, she teaches at Tel Aviv University and the University of Haifa, and is active in Track II meetings and conferences.

EPHRAIM KAMDr. Kam served as assistant head of the research division of IDF Military Intelligence. His fields of expertise are the Iranian challenge, Arab states’ security problems, the US entanglement in Iraq, strategic intelligence, and Israel’s national security issues. Dr. Kam served as deputy director of INSS for twenty years.

ZVI MAGENAn expert on Russia and Russian interests in the Middle East, Amb. Magen joined INSS following a long career in Israel’s Foreign Ministry. He served as ambassador to the Ukraine and to Russia. For several years he served as head of the Nativ organization (Israel’s liaison group for the FSU and Jewish diaspora affairs).

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KOBI MICHAEL A senior lecturer at Ariel University in the Department of Political Science and a senior research fellow at INSS, Dr. Michael focuses on peace and war studies, strategy, national security, civil-military relations, peacekeeping operations, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He served as the Deputy Director General and the Head of the Palestinian Division at the Ministry of Strategic Affairs. Dr. Michael has published widely and is the recipient of several academic prizes.

YAIR NAVEHWith the approval of Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, Maj. Gen. Yair Naveh has been seconded from the IDF to the INSS research staff as a distinguished visiting senior fellow. In his most recent post in the IDF, Maj. Gen. Naveh served as Deputy Chief of Staff. His work at INSS will focus on Israel’s security concept and the IDF; home front defense policy; and socio-military relations.

ORIT PERLOVA social media analyst, Ms. Perlov follows and analyzes the discourse on the social networks in Arab states. Prior to joining INSS, she served as a political adviser to the Israeli Ambassador at Large based with the informal Israeli mission in the GCC. She is the former co-editor of the Israeli Foreign Ministry website in Arabic.

YORAM SCHWEITZERAn expert on global jihad, Mr. Schweitzer has lectured and published widely on international terrorism and anti-terrorism strategy. His fields of research include the “Afghan alumni” phenomenon, al-Qaeda and its operational strategies, suicide terrorism, and state-sponsored terrorism. He is director of the Program on Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict.

ZAKI SHALOMA senior researcher at the Ben-Gurion Research Institute of Ben-Gurion University and at INSS, Prof. Shalom has published extensively on various facets of Israel’s defense policy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, and the role of the superpowers in the Middle East. The author of several books, his work has also focused on the study of Israel’s nuclear option.

YIFTAH S. SHAPIRFormerly an officer in the Israel Air Force, Mr. Shapir directs the Middle East Military Balance Project, which appears in full on the INSS website. His areas of expertise are the region’s force structures, weapons acquisition, trends in military development, ballistic missiles, and space assets.

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PNINA SHARVIT BARUCHCol. (ret.) Sharvit Baruch, an expert on the laws of armed conflict, retired from the IDF after serving in the International Law Department, including as head of the Department. She served as a legal advisor for negotiations with the Palestinians, and she participated in negotiations with Syria. She teaches at Tel Aviv University and at the National Security College.

GABI SHEFFERA professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Prof. Sheffer’s fields of expertise include Israeli leadership; Israel-Jewish diaspora relations; socio-military relations in Israel; and the impact of existential threats. At INSS he coordinates a forum on relations between social sectors and the military and defense establishments in Israel.

GILEAD SHERMr. Sher was Chief of Staff and Policy Coordinator under Prime Minister Barak. He served as co-chief negotiator at the Camp David summit and the Taba talks, as well as in extensive rounds of covert negotiations. A lawyer by profession, his research at INSS focuses on the Palestinian issue, conflict resolution, Israel’s security policy, and regional dynamics.

GABI SIBONIEditor of the Military and Strategic Affairs journal, Dr. Siboni is director of the Military and Strategic Affairs Program and the Cyber Warfare Program. His expertise combines the fields of security, military, and operational consulting with information technology, and his research focuses on military strategy and operations, and IDF force deployment and development.

SHIMON STEINAn international consultant serving Israeli, American, and German companies, Amb. Stein served as Israeli ambassador to Germany. Prior to this appointment he served in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as deputy director general for the CIS, as well as Eastern and Central Europe. He held additional MFA posts in Washington and Germany as well as in Israel.

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Orit PerlovUri SadotYoram SchweitzerProf. Zaki ShalomYiftah S. ShapirCol. (res.) Pnina Sharvit BaruchProf. Gabi ShefferCol. (res.) Gilead SherDr. Gabi SiboniDavid Siman-TovAmb. Shimon SteinProf. Eran YashivEinav YogevCol. (ret.) Yoav Zacks

Visiting FellowsPaul de SouzaZack GoldMaj. Gen. (ret.) Yair NavehItamar RadaiGideon Sa’ar

Neubauer Research AssociatesMichal Hatuel-RadoshitzkyAdam HoffmanManal HreibRoee KibrikCarmit PadanCarmit ValensiOfir Winter

Head of Project InnovationShuki Golan

Director of PublicationsMoshe Grundman

STAFFExecutive TeamMaj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin, Executive DirectorBrig. Gen. (res.) Udi Dekel, Managing DirectorOrly Hayardeny, Deputy Director for Finance and DevelopmentDr. Anat Kurz, Director of Research

Research StaffOwen AltermanDr. Alex AltshulerLiran AntebiDr. Ephraim AsculaiDr. Yehuda Ben MeirDr. Azriel BermantDr. Benedetta BertiBrig. Gen. (ret.) Shlomo BromDaniel Cohen Brig. Gen. (ret.) Uzi EilamBrig. Gen. (ret.) Meir ElranDr. Oded EranDr. Shmuel EvenProf. Yair EvronDr. Sarah FainbergDr. David FriedmanAvner GolovYoel GuzanskyYoram HacohenDr. Mark A. HellerDr. Zipi IsraeliDr. Ephraim KamDr. Emily B. LandauDr. Gallia LindenstraussAmb. Zvi MagenDr. Kobi Michael

EditorDr. Judith Rosen

Director of the Information CenterYoel Kozak

Social Networks ManagerYaniv Shlamberg

Research AssistantsKeren AviramShani DavidOmer EinavGal GabaiFeya HillelHadas KleinMaya KornbergGalia LaviDanielle LevinLiran OfekTali RotschildDeborah ShulmanDafna Tadmor

Finance and Human ResourcesSmadar GlikmanNofar Nathan

External RelationsDeborah Oppenheimer

AdministrationOrna Gudai

Building ManagerKobi Pinhas

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Photography: Itzik Biran, Chen Galili, Gilad Luria Givon, Deborah Oppenheimer, Kobi Pinhas, Assaf ShiloGraphic Design: Yael Kfir, Michal Semo-Kovetz, TAU Graphic Design StudioPrinting: ElinirJune 2015

INCORPORATING THE JAFFEECENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES b

המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומיTHE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES

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THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES

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