The Impact of H1N1 Flu Cluster Geometry on Appropriate

Intervention Methods in Developed versus Developing

Nations

Krishna Bhogaonker

The Focus

The Puzzle: How do systematic differences in the shape and size

of flu clusters between developed and developing nations affect

the choice of public health interventions and planning.

Significance: Differences in disease cluster structures impacts

the efficiency and efficacy of public health interventions. By

understanding national patterns in infectious disease clusters,

countries can make better epidemic response plans.

Study: I compare flu cluster size, shape, and progression in the

US and India to identify systematic patterns of variation. I also

narrow my focus to comparable cities Pune, India and San Diego,

California.

Roadmap

• Demonstrate global Flu spread

• Compare the structure of Flu clusters in the US and India

• Compare the structure of Flu clusters in San Diego versus Pune.

• Compare hospital coverage of Flu cases in San Diego versus Pune.

• CONCLUSION: The structure of a flu cluster influences the effectiveness of public health interventions.

In 2009, Pandemic Swine Flu swept the world. Both

developed and developing nations were affected.

Inset map, Geocoding, Aggregating Attributes: incidents = confirmed + suspectedBy Krishna B, Source Flutracker

Hotspot and Structural Analysis of India Flu Clusters

Modeling, Hotspots, Charts + Graphs, R mashup, measurment analysisBy Krishna B, Source Flutracker

Hotspot and Structural Analysis of US Flu Clusters

By Krishna B, Source Flutracker Modeling, Hotspots, Charts + Graphs, R mashup, measurment analysis

Case Comparison: San Diego versus Pune

National comparisons obscure data patterns because of

scale.

Comparing 2 similar cities provides a better sense of

clustering patterns.

Pune and San Diego are similar:

Both relatively coastal

Both 2-3 hours from large metropolitian city that was also a flu

cluster

Both are separated from the neighboring metropolitian city by

mountains

Similar population balance between metro city and secondary

city.

Flu Incidence in San Diego and Pune

Pune Hotspot Analysis

San Diego Hotspot Analysis

Explanation: Effective hospital buffer size is different in developed versus developing nations

Conclusion

• Implications for Policy: Developing nations need to extend hospital buffer sizes by mobile clinics.

• Using the data model provided, we can estimate the optimal buffer size for each developing nation hospital to produce cluster covering.