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Transcript of The Human Population. Concepts we will discuss Factors affecting human population size. Managing...
The Human PopulationThe Human Population
Concepts we will discussConcepts we will discuss
Factors affecting human population size. Factors affecting human population size.
Managing population growth Managing population growth
Human population problems Human population problems
More concepts we will discussMore concepts we will discuss
How populations are measured and what information those statistics reveal
Population growth theory
Relationship between carrying capacity and population growth
Even more concepts we will discussEven more concepts we will discuss
Arguments associated with the Great Population Debate.
How demographic statistics provide information about a nation’s quality of life.
Population growth and quality of life comparisons between more- and less-developed countries.
What is a population?What is a population?
Individuals of a single species that simultaneously occupy the same general area, having a high likelihood of interaction.
Characteristics of PopulationsCharacteristics of Populations
Population Density: Number of individuals per unit area.
Characteristics of PopulationsCharacteristics of Populations
Population Dispersion: Pattern of spacing among individuals.
Population GrowthExponential (no limit to what environment can support)
Logistic (environment has a specific carrying capacity)
Population GrowthPopulation Growth
Growth RatesCrude birth rate Crude death rate Zero population growth
Population GrowthPopulation Growth
Doubling Times Rule of 70 Least Developed Countries have the
shortest doubling times.
The Rule of 70The Rule of 70
The Great Population Debate Points of View There is No Population Problem
Cornucopian: People are the world’s ultimate resource.
Marxists: Poverty is the result of distribution problems, not overpopulation.
The Great Population DebateThe Great Population Debate
The Great Population Debate Points of View There is a Problem
Malthusians: Population growth, which is exponential, is limited by growth in the food supply, which is arithmetic.
Neo-Malthusians: In addition to food, other factors (such as shortages of water and space) impose limits on continued growth.
Zero Population Growth: A halt in population growth is needed
The Great Population DebateThe Great Population Debate
“The ‘Population Problem’ is a Complex Issue”“The ‘Population Problem’ is a Complex Issue”
Problems are the result of unequal distribution of resources and high growth rates.
Over-consumption by slow-growth countries is also problematic.
Factors Affecting Human Population SizeFactors Affecting Human Population Size
Population change equationP final = P initial + (B - D) + (I – E) or
Population change equationP final = P initial + (B - D) + (I – E) or
Population
Change
Population
Change== (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)(Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)
Factors Affecting Human Population SizeFactors Affecting Human Population Size
Crude birth rate (CBR)(CBR): number of live births per 1,000 people
Crude birth rate (CBR)(CBR): number of live births per 1,000 people
Crude death rate (CDR)(CDR): number of deaths per 1,000 people
Crude death rate (CDR)(CDR): number of deaths per 1,000 people
World PopulationWorld Population
Population GrowthPopulation Growth
High
Medium
Low
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
21950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
High10.6
Medium8.9
Low7.2
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(b
illio
ns)
No standard carrying capacity equation for humans
Humans are classified geopolitically, classifications which are ecologically meaningless.
Humans can raise carrying capacity of environment through technology.
Carrying Capacity as Applied to Human PopulationsCarrying Capacity as Applied to Human Populations
Quality of life (standard of living) separates the calculation of carrying capacity between humans and nonhumans.
Cultural carrying capacity When standards of living drop
dramatically, people may become environmental refugees.
Carrying Capacity as Applied to Human PopulationsCarrying Capacity as Applied to Human Populations
Fertility General fertility rate—number of
births per 1,000 women of childbearing age per year (ages 15-49)
Age-specific fertility rate—number of live births per 1,000 women of a specific age group per year
What Factors Affect Human Growth Rates?What Factors Affect Human Growth Rates?
Total fertility rate—average number of children a woman will bear throughout her life, based on the current age-specific fertility rate and assuming the current birth rate will remain constant throughout her life
Replacement fertility rate—fertility rate needed to ensure that each set of parents is “replaced” by their offspring.
What Factors Affect Human Growth Rates?What Factors Affect Human Growth Rates?
9 Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Total Fertility Rates9 Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Total Fertility Rates
Children in Labor Force Cost of raising and educating children Availability of pension systems Urbanization Education and employment for women Infant mortality rate Average marrying age Abortion Availability of birth control
Children in Labor Force Cost of raising and educating children Availability of pension systems Urbanization Education and employment for women Infant mortality rate Average marrying age Abortion Availability of birth control
Infant mortality rate (IMR)—number of infants under one year of age who die per 1,000 births each year
Childhood mortality rate (CMR)—number of children between one and five years of age who die per 1,000 births each year
Factors Affecting Death RatesFactors Affecting Death Rates
IMR is best single indicator of a society’s quality of life.
Infant and Childhood MortalityInfant and Childhood Mortality
Factors that contribute to high IMR and CMR include diarrhea (often caused by disease-infested water), improper weaning, famine, malnutrition, poor health of mother, and inadequate prenatal care.
Infant and Childhood MortalityInfant and Childhood Mortality
Click to view animation.
Examples of age structure interaction
Ages 0-14Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+Ages 45-85+
Rapid GrowthGuatemala
NigeriaSaudi Arabia
Rapid GrowthGuatemala
NigeriaSaudi Arabia
Slow GrowthUnited States
AustraliaCanada
Slow GrowthUnited States
AustraliaCanada
MaleMale FemaleFemale
Zero GrowthSpainAustriaGreece
Zero GrowthSpainAustriaGreece
Negative GrowthGermanyBulgariaSweden
Negative GrowthGermanyBulgariaSweden
Population Age StructurePopulation Age Structure
Graphically represented by population profile
Developing Countries have pyramidal-shaped profile;
Developed Countries have more rectangular or columnar profile.
Age DistributionAge Distribution
Important indicator of future growth rates
Population momentum—occurs when large numbers of young people are present are in the population, ensuring continued growth even after fertility rates drop
Age DistributionAge Distribution
Determines a nation’s dependency load—the proportion of the population below 15 or above 65 years of age
Migration Actual rate of increase
Age DistributionAge Distribution
Influencing Population SizeInfluencing Population Size
MigrationMigration
Environmental refugeesEnvironmental refugees
Reducing birthsReducing births
Family planningFamily planning
Empowerment of womenEmpowerment of women
Economic rewards and penaltiesEconomic rewards and penalties
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
01820 1840 18801860 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f le
gal
imm
igra
nts
(th
ou
san
ds)
1907
1914New laws restrict immigration
Great Depression
The Demographic TransitionThe Demographic Transition
LowLow
HighHigh
Rel
ativ
e p
op
ula
tio
n s
ize
Rel
ativ
e p
op
ula
tio
n s
ize
Bir
th r
ate
and
dea
th r
ate
(nu
mb
er p
er 1
,000
per
yea
r)B
irth
rat
e an
d d
eath
rat
e(n
um
ber
per
1,0
00 p
er y
ear) 8080
7070
6060
5050
4040
3030
2020
1010
00
Stage 1Preindustrial
Stage 1Preindustrial
Stage 2Transindustrial
Stage 2Transindustrial
Stage 3IndustrialStage 3
IndustrialStage 4
PostindustrialStage 4
Postindustrial
Lowgrowth rate
Lowgrowth rate
Increasing Growthgrowth rate
Increasing Growthgrowth rate
Very highgrowth rateVery high
growth rateDecreasinggrowth rateDecreasinggrowth rate
Lowgrowth rate
Lowgrowth rate
Zerogrowth rate
Zerogrowth rate
Negativegrowth rate
Negativegrowth rate
Birth rate
Total population
Death rate
TimeTime
Fig. 10-20 p. 189
Click to view animation.
Demographic transition model interaction.
Every one percent increase in population Every one percent increase in population needs a three percent increase in GNP.needs a three percent increase in GNP.
High growth rates of LDCs have High growth rates of LDCs have overwhelmed governments.overwhelmed governments.
How does population growth affect economic development?How does population growth affect economic development?
Population DensityPopulation Density UrbanizationUrbanization Life Expectancy (at birth)Life Expectancy (at birth)
What Do Demographic Statistics Tell About Quality of Life? What Do Demographic Statistics Tell About Quality of Life?
Cutting Global Population GrowthCutting Global Population Growth
Family planning Family planning
Reduce poverty Reduce poverty
Elevate the status of women Elevate the status of women
Improve health care Improve health care
Increase education Increase education
Involve men in parenting Involve men in parenting
Sustainability Sustainability
Motherhood Only OptionMotherhood Only Option Birth Rates RiseBirth Rates Rise
If Women’s Status is Low:If Women’s Status is Low:
Access to EducationAccess to Education Access to Adequate Health CareAccess to Adequate Health Care Legal RightsLegal Rights Maternal mortality ratioMaternal mortality ratio Employment Opportunities Outside HomeEmployment Opportunities Outside Home Wage EarningsWage Earnings Marriage AgeMarriage Age Number of ChildrenNumber of Children
A women’s status is determined by:A women’s status is determined by:
U.S. Birth Rates: 1910-2004U.S. Birth Rates: 1910-2004
32
30
2826242220181614
0Bir
ths
pe
r th
ou
sa
nd
po
pu
lati
on
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
2010
Year
Demographictransition
Depression
End of World War II
Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom
Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate
World
All developedcountries
All developingcountries
Developingcountries
(w/o China)
21
9
11
10
24
8
27
9
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Africa
LatinAmerica
Asia
Oceania
UnitedStates
NorthAmerica
Europe
38
14
22
6
20
7
18
7
14
8
14
8
10
12
© 2
004
Bro
oks
/Co
le –
Th
om
son
Lea
rnin
g
© 2
004
Bro
oks
/Co
le –
Th
om
son
Lea
rnin
g China
India
USA
Indonesia
Brazil
Pakistan
Russia
Bangladesh
Japan
Nigeria
2004 2025
1.3 billion1.4 billion
1.1 billion1.4 billion
294 million
349 million
219 million308 million
179 million
211 million
159 million
229 million
144 million137 million
141 million
205 million
128 million
121 million
137 million206 million
World
Developedcountries
Developingcountries
Africa
LatinAmerica
Asia
Oceania
NorthAmerica
Europe
5 children per woman2.8
2.5
1.6
6.53.1
6.65.1
5.92.6
5.92.6
3.82.1
3.52.0
2.61.4
1950 2004
© 2
004
Bro
oks
/Co
le –
Th
om
son
Lea
rnin
g
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.02.1
1.5
1.0
0.5
01920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Bir
ths
per
wo
man
Baby boom(1946-64)
Replacement level
47 years77 years
8%81%
15%
83%
10%98%
2%99%
10%52%
$15$3
1.25.8
1900
2000
Life expectancy
Married women workingoutside the home
High school graduates
Homes with flush toilets
Homes with electricity
Living in suburbs
Hourly manufacturing jobwage (adjusted for inflation)
Homicides per100,000 people
600
500
400
300
200
100
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
76
292
571
Total population
Projections
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
in m
illio
ns
United States Mexico Canada
Population(2004)
Projected population(2025)
349 million
Infant mortality rate
Lifeexpectancy
Total fertilityrate (TFR)
% populationunder age 15
% populationover age 65
Per capitaGDP PPP
294 million106 million
32 million
150million36 million
6.725
5.2
2.02.8
1.7
21%35%
18%
12%
13%5%
$8,790
77 years75 years
79 years
$36,110
$31,892
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
China: Slowing Population GrowthChina: Slowing Population Growth
Economic incentivesEconomic incentives
Free medical careFree medical care
Preferential treatmentPreferential treatment
Very intrusive and coerciveVery intrusive and coercive
Locally administeredLocally administered
India: Slowing Population GrowthIndia: Slowing Population Growth
Poor planningPoor planningBureaucratic inefficiencyBureaucratic inefficiencyLow status of womenLow status of womenExtreme povertyExtreme povertyLack of supportLack of support
Generally disappointing results:Generally disappointing results:
Percentageof world
population
Population
Population (2025)(estimated)
Illiteracy (%of adults)
Population under age 15(%)
Population growth rate (%)
Total fertility rate
Infant mortality rate
Life expectancy
GDP PPP per capita
17%20%
1.1 billion1.3 billion
1.4 billion
1.4 billion
47%17%
36%
22%
1.7%0.6%
3.1 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)
6432
62 years
71 years
$2,650
$4,520
IndiaChina