CHAPTER 11: HUMAN POPULATIONS

Read pgs. 238-258

Key ConceptsKey Concepts

Factors affecting human population sizeFactors affecting human population size Factors affecting human population sizeFactors affecting human population size

Managing population growthManaging population growth Managing population growthManaging population growth

Human population problemsHuman population problems Human population problemsHuman population problems

Factors Affecting Human Population SizeFactors Affecting Human Population Size

Population change equationPopulation change equationPopulation change equationPopulation change equation

Crude birth rate (CBR)Crude birth rate (CBR)Crude birth rate (CBR)Crude birth rate (CBR)

Crude death rate (CDR)Crude death rate (CDR)Crude death rate (CDR)Crude death rate (CDR)

Refer to Fig. 11-2 p. 239Refer to Fig. 11-2 p. 239Refer to Fig. 11-2 p. 239Refer to Fig. 11-2 p. 239

PopulationPopulationChangeChange

PopulationPopulationChangeChange ==== (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)(Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)(Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)(Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)

What would happen to the population if the : Births exceeded the deaths? Deaths exceeded the births? Births equaled the deaths?

Zero Population growth (ZPG) is when the population stays stable.

Natural Rate of Increase

<1%

1-1.9%

2-2.9%

3+%Data notavailable

Annual worldpopulation growth

Fig. 11.3, p. 240

Fertility Rates Replacement-level fertility is the

number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves. Typically slightly higher than 2. Why?

Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman will have during her childbearing years. What are the childbearing years?

15-49

Births per woman

< 2

2-2.9

3-3.9

4-4.9

5+

NoData

Fertility Rates Replacement-level fertilityReplacement-level fertility Replacement-level fertilityReplacement-level fertility Total fertility rate (TFR)Total fertility rate (TFR) Total fertility rate (TFR)Total fertility rate (TFR)

Fig. 11.8, p. 242

Factors Affecting BR and TFR

US BR’s US BR’sFig. 11.11, p. 243

see Fig. 11-10 p. 243

Importance of children as a part of the labor force.

Urbanization

Cost of raising and education children

Educational and employment opportunities for women.

IMR

Average age of at which women have their first child.

Factors affecting death rates. Why are people living longer?

Life expectancy is the average number of years a newborn can expect to live.

Infant mortality rate (IMR) is the number of newborns out of a 1,000 who die before their first birthday.

Infant deathsper 1,000 live births

<10<10-35<36-70<71-100<100+Data notavailable

Factors Affecting DR Life expectancyLife expectancy Life expectancyLife expectancy Infant mortality rate (IMR)Infant mortality rate (IMR) Infant mortality rate (IMR)Infant mortality rate (IMR)

Fig. 11.14, p. 246

Factors Affecting Natural Rate of Increase

Developed Countries5050

4040

3030

2020

1010

0017751775

18001800 1850

185019001900

19501950

20002000 2050

2050

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

peo

ple

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

peo

ple

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

peo

ple

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

peo

ple

Year

Rate ofnatural increase

Crudebirth rate

Crudedeath rate

Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate - crude death rateRate of natural increase = crude birth rate - crude death rate Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate - crude death rateRate of natural increase = crude birth rate - crude death rate

Developed Countries5050

4040

3030

2020

1010

0017751775

18001800 1850

185019001900

19501950

20002000 2050

2050

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

peo

ple

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

peo

ple

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

peo

ple

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

peo

ple Crude

birth rate

Rate ofnaturalincrease Crude

death rate

Year

Fig. 11.13, p. 245

Ages 0-14Ages 0-14Ages 0-14Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44Ages 15-44Ages 15-44Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+Ages 45-85+Ages 45-85+Ages 45-85+

Rapid GrowthRapid GrowthGuatemalaGuatemala

NigeriaNigeriaSaudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia

Rapid GrowthRapid GrowthGuatemalaGuatemala

NigeriaNigeriaSaudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia

Slow GrowthSlow GrowthUnited StatesUnited States

AustraliaAustraliaCanadaCanada

Slow GrowthSlow GrowthUnited StatesUnited States

AustraliaAustraliaCanadaCanada

MaleMale FemaleFemale

Zero GrowthZero GrowthSpainSpainAustriaAustriaGreeceGreece

Zero GrowthZero GrowthSpainSpainAustriaAustriaGreeceGreece

Negative GrowthNegative GrowthGermanyGermanyBulgariaBulgariaSwedenSweden

Negative GrowthNegative GrowthGermanyGermanyBulgariaBulgariaSwedenSweden

Population Age StructurePopulation Age Structure

Fig. 11.16a, p. 247

Solutions: Influencing Population SizeSolutions: Influencing Population Size

MigrationMigrationMigrationMigrationEnvironmental refugeesEnvironmental refugeesEnvironmental refugeesEnvironmental refugees

Reducing birthsReducing birthsReducing birthsReducing births

Family planningFamily planningFamily planningFamily planning

Empowerment of womenEmpowerment of womenEmpowerment of womenEmpowerment of women

Economic rewards and penaltiesEconomic rewards and penaltiesEconomic rewards and penaltiesEconomic rewards and penalties

Demographic Transition GameAll books are closed.Arrange the cards into four

scenarios.Each scenario needs a stage

name, a birth rate, a death rate and a growth rate.

Demographic TransitionA hypothesis for how the growth

rate of human populations change as they become industrialized.

Answers Preindustrial –

high birth rate high death rate zero population growth.

Why? Difficult living conditions. Need high

birth rate to compensate for high infant mortality and high death rate.

Answers Transitional –

high birth rate declining death rate high growth rate.

Why? Living conditions have improved. More

food and health care. Death rates decline faster while birth rates remain high. (infant mortality still an issue)

Answers Industrial –

declining birth rate low death rate low growth rate.

Why? Living conditions continue to improve.

Birth rates approach death rates because of better access to birth control, equality in the workplace, lower infant mortality

Answers Post-Industrial

low birth rate low death rate zero population growth.

Why? Living conditions continue to improve.

Birth rates match death rates (sometimes go below) High costs of living and raising children.

The Demographic Transition

LowLow

HighHigh

Rel

ativ

e p

op

ula

tio

n s

ize

Rel

ativ

e p

op

ula

tio

n s

ize

Rel

ativ

e p

op

ula

tio

n s

ize

Rel

ativ

e p

op

ula

tio

n s

ize

Bir

th r

ate

and

dea

th r

ate

Bir

th r

ate

and

dea

th r

ate

(nu

mb

er p

er 1

,000

per

yea

r(n

um

ber

per

1,0

00 p

er y

ear)

Bir

th r

ate

and

dea

th r

ate

Bir

th r

ate

and

dea

th r

ate

(nu

mb

er p

er 1

,000

per

yea

r(n

um

ber

per

1,0

00 p

er y

ear) 8080

7070

6060

5050

4040

3030

2020

1010

00

Stage 1Stage 1PreindustrialPreindustrial

Stage 1Stage 1PreindustrialPreindustrial

Stage 2Stage 2TransindustrialTransindustrial

Stage 2Stage 2TransindustrialTransindustrial

Stage 3Stage 3IndustrialIndustrialStage 3Stage 3

IndustrialIndustrialStage 4Stage 4

PostindustrialPostindustrialStage 4Stage 4

PostindustrialPostindustrial

LowLowgrowth rategrowth rate

LowLowgrowth rategrowth rate

Increasing GrowthIncreasing Growthgrowth rategrowth rate

Increasing GrowthIncreasing Growthgrowth rategrowth rate

Very highVery highgrowth rategrowth rateVery highVery high

growth rategrowth rateDecreasingDecreasinggrowth rategrowth rateDecreasingDecreasinggrowth rategrowth rate

LowLowgrowth rategrowth rate

LowLowgrowth rategrowth rate

ZeroZerogrowth rategrowth rate

ZeroZerogrowth rategrowth rate

NegativeNegativegrowth rategrowth rate

NegativeNegativegrowth rategrowth rate

Birth rate

Total population

Death rate

TimeTimeTimeTimeFig. 11.26, p. 255

Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in India. Read pgs. 257-258Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in India. Read pgs. 257-258

Poor planningPoor planningPoor planningPoor planningBureaucratic inefficiencyBureaucratic inefficiencyBureaucratic inefficiencyBureaucratic inefficiencyLow status of womenLow status of womenLow status of womenLow status of womenExtreme povertyExtreme povertyExtreme povertyExtreme povertyLack of supportLack of supportLack of supportLack of support

Generally disappointing results:Generally disappointing results:Generally disappointing results:Generally disappointing results:

Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in ChinaCase Study: Slowing Population Growth in China

Economic incentivesEconomic incentivesEconomic incentivesEconomic incentivesFree medical careFree medical careFree medical careFree medical carePreferential treatmentPreferential treatmentPreferential treatmentPreferential treatment Intrusive and coerciveIntrusive and coercive Intrusive and coerciveIntrusive and coerciveLocally administeredLocally administeredLocally administeredLocally administered

Generally positive results:Generally positive results:Generally positive results:Generally positive results:

Cutting Global Population GrowthCutting Global Population Growth

Family planningFamily planningFamily planningFamily planning

Reduce povertyReduce povertyReduce povertyReduce poverty

Elevate the status of womenElevate the status of womenElevate the status of womenElevate the status of women

3232

3030

2828

2626

2424

2222

2020

1818

1616

1414

00

19101910 19201920 19301930 19401940 19501950 19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010

Bir

ths

per

th

ou

san

d p

op

ula

tio

nB

irth

s p

er t

ho

usa

nd

po

pu

lati

on

Bir

ths

per

th

ou

san

d p

op

ula

tio

nB

irth

s p

er t

ho

usa

nd

po

pu

lati

on

Demographictransition

DepressionBaby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom

World War II

YearYearYearYear