THEHIGH-PERFORMANCERAILOPTION

ATransportActionOntarioDiscussionPaper

By

GregGormickOnTrackStrategies

March4,2016

i

AbstractIn2014,twodivergentproposalsweremadeforimprovedrailserviceonseparateportionsoftheQuebec-WindsorCorridor.TheGovernmentofOntarioproposedanewhigh-speedrail(HSR)servicebetweenTorontoandWindsorviaPearsonInternationalAirport,KitchenerandLondon.AnunrelatedVIAproposalcallsforanapproachithaslabelledhigh-frequencyrail(HFR),whichwouldoperateondedicatedtrackbetweenMontreal,OttawaandToronto.Whathasnotbeenexaminedisthepotentialforabroader,cost-effectiveseriesofincrementalinvestmentsandimprovementsfortheentireQuebec-WindsorCorridor.Thisapproach,whichhasbeentakenonmanycorridorsaroundtheworld,isknownashigh-performancerail(HPR).WithHPR,thecurrentVIAservicewouldbeprogressivelyimprovedcorridor-widetoreducejourneytimes,increasetheservicefrequencyandexpandridership.Itwouldbeacombinationofnewequipment,upgradingoftheexistinginfrastructure,constructionofselectivenewlinesegments,arevisedservicepatternandimprovedconnectivitywithothermodesoftravel.Ratherthanfocusingjustonthemaximumspeed,HPRisdefinedbyitsmultipleserviceattributes,including:

• frequency;• pricevis-à-visothermodes;• comfortandonboardamenities;• on-timeperformance;• stationconvenience;• connectivitywithotherpublicmodes;and• door-to-doortraveltime.

Basedonthebenefitsrealizedonotherrailcorridorswhereithasbeenapplied,thereisreasontobelieveHPRcouldbethepreferredoptionforcorridor-widerailpassengerinvestmentandimprovement.Alsotobeconsideredisthepracticalityofcombiningthebestelementsofallthreerailpassengerimprovementoptionsintoasingleprogramthatwouldbringbroadeconomic,socialandenvironmentalbenefitstoalltheroutesinthecurrentVIAQuebec-WindsorCorridor.ThisdiscussionpaperhasbeencommissionedtoencouragedecisionmakerstoundertakeadetailedanalysisoftheHPRoptionalongsideOntario’sHSRandVIA’sHFRproposals.

- 1 -

TheCaseforHigh-PerformanceRailInvestmentIfacaseforinvestmentinmodernrailpassengerserviceweretobemadeinCanada,itwouldbeintheQuebec-WindsorCorridor.ThisregionishometomorethanhalfofCanada’spopulationanditisthenation’seconomiccore.ItisalsopartoftheGreatLakesMega-Region,whichfurtherexpandsitseconomicimpact.Onthebasisofdemographics,traveldemandandthedistancesbetweenitsnumerouswell-developedcommunities,thiscorridorisideallypositionedtomakefulluseoffast,frequentandcost-effectiveintercityrailservice.NumerousproposalsformajorrailpassengerserviceimprovementsthroughouttheQuebec-WindsorCorridorhavebeenbroughtforwardinthepast,butnonehasbeenadopted.Withoutassuredandpredictablemulti-yearfunding,VIAhasbeenunabletooptimizetheefficienciesandattractivenessofrailtoreducejourneytimesandincreasefrequencytosignificantlyboostridershipandrevenueonitssevencorridorroutes.Whilesomeerraticandinadequateinvestmenthasoccurred,therehasbeennocomprehensiveplanformajorimprovement.Consequently,VIAattractsarelativelysmallpercentageofthetotalpassengertrafficonacorridor-widebasis.Whererailpassengerservicehasbeenfundedanddevelopedprogressivelyinnumerousothercorridorsaroundtheworld,ithasofferedlevelsofspeed,convenienceandaccessibilitythathaveattractedhighridershipandrevenue.Thishasmaderailacrediblealternativetohighwayandaviationinvestment,generatingbroadon-andoff-corridorbenefitseconomically,sociallyandenvironmentally.Inmanyinstances,actualpassengerdemandhasbeenfargreaterthanforecastedinthestudiesthatsupportedtheserailinvestments.

- 2 -

In2014,twodivergentproposalsweremadeforimprovedrailserviceonseparateportionsoftheQuebec-WindsorCorridor.TheGovernmentofOntarioproposedanewhigh-speedrail(HSR)servicebetweenTorontoandWindsorviaPearsonInternationalAirport,KitchenerandLondon.AnunrelatedVIAproposalcallsforanapproachithaslabelledhigh-frequencyrail(HFR),whichwouldoperateondedicatedtrackbetweenMontreal,OttawaandToronto.Whathasnotbeenexaminedisthepotentialforabroader,cost-effectiveseriesofincrementalinvestmentsandimprovementsfortheentireQuebec-WindsorCorridor.Thisapproach,whichhasbeentakenonmanycorridorsaroundtheworld,isknownashigh-performancerail(HPR).WithHPR,thecurrentVIAservicewouldbeprogressivelyimprovedcorridor-widetoreducejourneytimes,increasetheservicefrequencyandexpandridership.Itwouldbeacombinationofnewequipment,upgradingoftheexistinginfrastructure,constructionofselectivenewlinesegments,arevisedservicepatternandimprovedconnectivitywithothermodesoftravel.Basedonthebenefitsrealizedonotherrailcorridorswhereithasbeenapplied,thereisreasontobelieveHPRcouldbethepreferredoptionforcorridor-widerailpassengerinvestmentandimprovement.ThisdiscussionpaperhasbeencommissionedtoencouragedecisionmakerstoundertakeadetailedanalysisofHPRalongsideOntario’sHSRandVIA’sHFRproposals.

WhatisHigh-PerformanceRail?High-performancerail(HPR)isacommercially-provenmiddlegroundbetweenVIA’scurrentconventionalservicethatoperatesatamaximumof160km/hourandhigh-speedrail(HSR),whichisgenerallydefinedasapassengerserviceoperatingondedicatedinfrastructureatspeedsof240km/hourormore.Tobringitdowntoitssimplestterms,HPRisthephasedimprovementofallaspectsofaconventionalrailpassengerservicetomakethebestuseoftheexistinginfrastructurewithoutfullyseparatingitfromthefreightandotherpassengerservicesthatcontinuetosharethebulkoftheroutemileage.TodelivertrueHSRservice,itisnecessarytoconstructnew“greenfield”linesegmentstoseparateitfromtheothertraffictypesandsafelyenabletheHSRtrainstooperateattheirmaximumspeeds,whicharetypicallythreetofourtimesfasterthanfreighttrains.Theexceptionisinconstrainedurbanterminalareas,wheresharedcorridorsoftenmustbeusedbecauseitwouldbephysicallyandfinanciallydifficulttoreplicatetheexistinginfrastructuretoachievefullseparation.PriortobuildingtheirimpressiveHSRlines,manyEuropeanandAsianrailwaysimplementedHPRservicesonexistingrailcorridors.There,itcontinuestooperateatspeedsof160to200km/houronmanymainandsecondaryroutes,complementingandfeedingtraffictotheHSRlines.Inmanycases,HPRandHSRareintertwinedonthesameroutestoprovideacombinationofhigh-speedexpressserviceformajorpointsandlower-speedlocalserviceforsmallerintermediatecommunities.

- 3 -

Inadditiontooperatingatprogressivelyhigherspeedsthanconventionalrailpassengerservice,HPRisdefinedbyitsmultipleserviceattributes,including:

• increasedfrequency;• competitiveusercostsvis-à-visothermodes;• enhancedcomfortandonboardamenities;• higheron-timeperformance;• all-weatherreliability;• greaterstationconvenienceandaccessibility;• higherconnectivitywithotherpublicmodes;and• reduceddoor-to-doortraveltimes.

AkeyfeatureofHPRisthatitisn’ta“bigbang”approachthattakesyearstodeliveranybenefitsbeforetheentireprojectiscompleted,asisthecasewithHSR.Itdeliversserviceimprovementsateachstepalongwhatisaphasedpathwaytofullbuild-out.Aswell,HPRcanbeoperatedwithelectricordieseltractionandcan,wherejustified,beconvertedatalaterdate.Ontheotherhand,HSRrequiresfullelectrificationattheoutset.HPRisoftendescribedasapracticalandaffordable“higherspeed”optionfortoday,whileHSRisalonger-rangeandcostlieroptionfortomorrow.Ashasbeendemonstratedaroundtheworld,HPRisaneffectiveandincrementalplatformonwhichtoconstructafutureHSRservice.

HPRinNorthAmericaTodayTherearesixexamplesofHPRinoperationinNorthAmericanow.ThemosthighlydevelopedisAmtrak’selectrifiedBoston-WashingtonNortheastCorridor(NEC).Itoffershighfrequencies,operatesatup240km/hourandmakesnumerousconnectionswithotherAmtrakroutes,commuterrailsystems,intercitybusfeedersandurbantransitnetworks.TheNECalsohandlesacomplexmixofslowerintercitypassengerandcommutertrains,plussomefreight.ConnectedtotheNECistheelectrifiedPhiladelphia-HarrisburgKeystoneCorridor,whichisoperatedat176km/hourandprovides14dailyroundtrips.Amtrakplanstoincreasethespeedto200km/hourandtheStateofPennsylvaniaisstudyingthepossibilityofextendingthecorridorwestwithdiesel-hauledservicetoPittsburgh.TherearefouradditionalAmtrakrouteswhichmeettheHPRcriteria.Theseare:

ROUTE ENDPOINTS MAXIMUMSPEED(KM/HOUR)

WEEKDAYROUNDTRIPS

EmpireCorridor NewYork-Albany 176 13HiawathaService Chicago-Milwaukee 127 7PacificSurfliner LosAngeles-SanDiego 144 11CapitolCorridor SanJose-Sacramento 127 14

- 4 -

TWOOFHPR’SMANYFACES:Amtrak’selectrifiedNortheastandKeystonecorridors(above)representtheupperendofHPRoperationinNorthAmericatoday,handlingamixtureofhigher-speedexpressservicesandlower-speedregionalintercitytrains,aswellasheavycommuterandlimitedfreighttraffic.Analternate,lower-costexampleistheSanJose-SacramentoCapitolCorridor(below),whichoffersfrequentdiesel-poweredservicewithbi-levelrollingstockonalinethatcomfortablyhandlesheavyrailtraffic.PhotosfromWikipedia

- 5 -

AllfouroftheseHPRservicesaredieselpoweredandtheyinterconnectwithnumerousfeederbuses,urbantransitsystems,commuterraillinesandotherAmtrakroutes.OtherAmtrakHPRupgradingprojectsnowunderwayinpartnershipwiththerelevantstategovernmentsinclude:

DowneasterService Boston-Portland-Brunswick,MEKnowledgeCorridor NewHaven,CT-Springfield,MAEmpireCorridor Albany-NiagaraFalls,NYPiedmontCorridor Raleigh,NC-CharlotteWolverineCorridor Pontiac,MI-Detroit-ChicagoLincolnCorridor Chicago-St.LouisSanJoaquinCorridor Bakersfield,CA-Oakland/SacramentoCascadesCorridor Eugene,OR-Portland-Seattle-Vancouver,BC

ThetwoMidwestprojectsarecomponentsofaplannedChicagohubnetworkofsix176-km/hourHPRroutesandsixconventionalservices.OtherHPRservicesthroughouttheU.S.willfollowasmulti-routeregionalsystemsarebuiltonthefoundationofcurrentAmtrakconventionalroutes.AmongthosetargetedforupgradingtoHPRare:

VermonterService Springfield,MA-MontrealInlandRoute Boston-Springfield,MADC2RVACorridor Washington,DC-Richmond,VAKeystoneWest Harrisburg,PA-PittsburghSoutheastCorridorPhaseI Richmond-Raleigh,NCSoutheastCorridorPhaseII Charlotte,NC-AtlantaSoutheastCorridorSpur Richmond-HamptonRoads,VANorthernLightsExpress TwinCities-Duluth,MN

ItshouldbenotedthatCaliforniahasembarkedonNorthAmerica’sonlyHSRproject,whichwilllinkLosAngelesandSanFranciscoby2029.Aspartofthatplan,thestate’sthreeHPRrouteswillnotonlycontinuetooperate,buttheywillplayexpandedrolesasfeederstotheHSRline.

Ontario’sHigh-SpeedRailProposalPriortotheJune2014provincialelection,PremierKathleenWynneannouncedhergovernmentwould,inconcertwithmajorGOTransitexpansionintheGreaterTorontoandHamiltonArea(GTHA),builda300-km/hour,electrifiedToronto-LondonHSRline,whichwouldalsoservePearsonInternationalAirportandKitchener-Waterloo.ItwouldbeahybridrouteusingexistingGOTransitandCNrights-of-way,plusanall-newKitchener-Londonalignment.Acostof$2.5billionandanestimateofupto12yearsfortheservice’sstart-upweregiven,basedonapre-feasibilitystudythatlackeddetailedanalysisandwasdonewithoutanyon-the-groundinspectionoftheroute.ThatstudyalsoindicatedtheproposedHSRlinecouldattractabout6millionpassengersannuallyandoperateprofitably,repayingmostofitscapitalcost.

- 6 -

ThereisnodoubtthatanHSRprojectsuchasthisonecanbeadazzlingprospect.Sincetheworld’sfirsttruehigh-speedtrainpulledoutofTokyoforOsakaontheall-newTokaidoLinein1964,ithasbecomethegoldstandardofintercityrailpassengerservice.Inadditiontogrowingintoanextensive,multi-linesysteminitsbirthplace,ithastakenrootinnationsasdiverseasFrance,TurkeyandChina.HSRhasbecomeaglobalphenomenon.However,HSRisexpensiveandtime-consumingtobuild.Italsorequiresconcentrationsofpassengersondensecorridorsandcomplementaryrail,busandtransitservicestodrawtrafficfromoff-linepoints.Whenit’spartofaseamlessnetworkofintegratedservices,HSRdoes,indeed,offeracredibleandattractalternativetocarandairtravel.Despitetheseimpressivecredentialsandtheheadline-makingpowerofanyHSRproposal,theprovincialannouncementdrewamixedpublicreaction.SomeoftheskepticismmayhaveresultedfromthefactthatHSRhasbeenstudiedrepeatedlyinCanadaformorethan30years.ThesestudieshaveallprovenHSRistechnicallyfeasibleanditcoulddivertlargenumbersoftravellersfromair,busand,toalesserextent,thehighways.ButthestudieshavealsodeterminedHSRwouldhavetobepubliclyfunded,withatbestasmallpercentageofprivateinvestment.Thatfundinghasnevermaterialized.

- 7 -

FollowingtheJune2014provincialelection,theHSRproposalwasreconfirmedandexpandedwesttoincludeWindsor.PremierWynneannouncedthegovernmentwouldundertakeenvironmentalassessmentsandplanningfortheproposedHSRline.Shealsosaidshehopedthefederalgovernmentwouldcontribute,inasmuchasitalreadyfundsconventionalVIAserviceinthesamemarket.Theprivatesectorwasalsoexpectedtoshoulderalargeportionofthecostthroughapublic-privatepartnership.TheHSRproposalwasadvancedwiththeappointmentofformerfederalMinisterofTransportDavidCollenetteastheproject’sadvisor.HistaskistopresentrecommendationstoQueen’sParkbasedonabusinesscaseanalysisbyNovember2016.ShouldMr.Collenettedeliverapositiverecommendation,thenextstepwouldbethreeormoreyearsofdesignworkandenvironmentalassessments,withconstructionrequiringanotherfourtosixyears.Athisfirstroundofpresentationsexplainingthestudyprocesstobefollowed,Mr.Collenetteemphasizedthatnothinghasyetbeendecidedandawiderangeofoptionswillbeexploredregardingrouting,technology,financingandmanyotherissues.Aninitialmodificationofthe2014pre-feasibilitystudywastheinclusionof200-km/houror“higherspeed”dieselandelectricoptionswithinthecurrentanalysis.Thisis,infact,HPR,notHSR.Alsotoberesolvedareseveralphysicalandoperationalchallenges.Oneistheabilityoftheconstrained,CN-ownedBramalea-GeorgetownroutesectiontoaccommodateHSRinadditiontotheall-day,two-wayGOservicetheprovincehaspromisedforKitchener.Deliveryofthelatterhasprovendifficult,causingthegovernmenttopushbacktheestimatedservicedatefrom2019to2025.TheimpactofthisbottleneckonthecostandtimelineoftheHSRprojectwillneedtobeaddressed,aswillCN’srefusaltoallowanyelectrificationofitslines.QuestionshavealsobeenraisedabouttheHSRline’srouting.Becauseofconstraintsontheexistinglines,itwouldrequireanall-newalignmentaroundActonandRockwood.ItmightalsobypassdowntownGuelphinfavourofanewstationsouthofthecitynearHighway401.ThenewHSRalignmentwouldalsoexcludeStratfordandSt.Marys,althoughtheoriginalToronto-Londonpre-feasibilitystudydidsuggestthatsomelower-speedKitchener-LondonservicecouldbemaintainedonthecurrentlinetoconnectwiththeHSRtrainsateitherend.SimilarsuggestionsweremadeconcerningthepossiblemaintenanceoftheconventionalservicenowprovidedbyVIAontheToronto-Brantford-LondonandLondon-Sarniaroutes.Aswell,therouteproposedinthe2014pre-feasibilitystudywouldnotdirectlyservePearsonInternationalAirport,butwouldrequireaninterchangestationneartheWoodbineRacetrack,whereHSRpassengerswouldmakecross-platformconnectionswiththeUnionPearsonExpresstrainsthatnowservetheairport.ProvidingadirectHSRconnectiontoPearsonwouldbeextremelydifficultandexpensive,requiringalooplineofftheexistingGO-ownedrailcorridorandaconsiderableamountoftunneling.Thiswasnotconsideredintheoriginalpre-feasibilitystudy,althoughconnectivitywithPearsonremainsakeyobjectiveoftheHSRproposal.

- 8 -

VIA’sHigh-FrequencyRailProposalInisolationfromtheOntarioHSRplanforSouthwesternOntario,VIAbroughtforwardaschemefortheMontreal-Ottawa-Torontosegmentofthecorridorinlate2014.ItispartiallyHPR,butmostofitcanbecharacterizedasHSR–withoutthehighspeed.Dubbedhigh-frequencyrail(HFR),itarisesfromVIA’scontentionthatitcan’tofferfrequent,reliableandcost-effectiveservicesolongasitusesinfrastructureownedbythefreightrailways.Toovercomethis,VIAproposesacombinationofthetrackageitnowownswithnewtrackageonabandonedandactivefreightrights-of-waytocreateadedicated,passenger-onlylineprovidingupto15roundtripsdailyonacontiguousMontreal-Ottawa-Torontorouting.Althoughthespecificsoftheroutinghavenotbeenmadepublic,internaldocumentsindicatetheHFRtrainswouldoperatefromMontrealCentralStationontheexistingCNroutetoDeBeaujeu,Quebec,wheretheywouldaccesstheVIA-ownedlinetoOttawaandSmithsFalls.Tothispoint,HFRisactuallyHPR.BeyondSmithsFalls,theHFRproposalmorecloselyresemblesHSRduetoitsrelianceonall-newpassengerinfrastructure,albeitonexistingrights-of-way.LeavingVIA’scurrentlineatSmithsFalls,theHFRroutewouldbeondedicatedtrackbuiltbesideCP’sMontreal-TorontofreightmainlinetoGlenTay.There,itwouldveerofftotheabandonedportionofCP’sHavelockSubdivision,withthe150kmofmissingtrackrebuilt.WestofHavelock,VIAwouldbuildonCP’sactivefreightcorridorthroughPeterboroughtoToronto’sLeasidearea,wheretheHFRtrainswouldproceedtoUnionStationonamothballedex-CPlineownedbyGOTransit.Althoughnocost-benefitanalysishasbeenreleased,VIAhassaidHFRonacontiguousMontreal-Ottawa-Torontoroutingwouldbeprofitable,increasingridershipfromthecurrent2.3millionpassengersto6.8millionwithin12years.Asforthecapitalcostofupto$4billion,VIAhassuggestedthegovernmentwouldinvest$1billioninnewequipmentandprivate-sectorinvestorsmightfundtherest.VIAwouldusetheprivately-financedinfrastructureonatollbasisthatwouldgenerateaprofitfortheinvestors.WhileVIAhasprovidednofirmtimeline,thecorporationhassuggesteditcouldbeimplementedby2021.

ROUTESEGMENT JOURNEYTIMEMontreal-Ottawa 1:20Ottawa-Toronto 2:30Montreal-Toronto 3:50

ItisimpossibletodeterminethesoundnessoftheHFRproposalbecausesolittledatahasbeenmadepublicandchangeshavebeenmadesinceitwasfirstannounced.VIAoriginallysaiditwouldbeadiesel-powered,176-km/houroperation,whichwouldsavethehighcostofelectrification.VIAlateralteredtheproposaltoincludeelectrificationandoperationat200km/hour,raisingtheestimatedcostby$1billion.

- 9 -

SomeothermajorquestionsabouttheHFRproposalneedtobeanswered,including:

• WouldVIAcontinuetoserveBrockville,Kingston,Bellevilleandotherhigh-volumepointsonitscurrentroutealongtheCNMontreal-Torontomainline?

• WouldtherebeenoughrevenuegeneratedontheHFRroutetocross-subsidize

serviceontheexistingroutes,iftheywereretained?

• Wouldthevalueofthe$400millionVIArecentlyinvestedtoexpandcapacityonCN’sToronto-Montrealmainlinetoallowformorepassengerservicebelost?

• Althoughitwouldn’tbepartoftheHFRroute,whydidVIAspendroughly$40millionupgradingandthenacquiringCP’sSmithsFalls-Brockvilleline?

MoreneedstobeknownabouttheHFRMontreal-Ottawa-TorontoproposalbeforeitcanbefairlyweighedaspartofananalysisofthefullrangeofoptionsapplicabletotheentireQuebec-WindsorCorridor.Untilsuchaninvestigationisperformed,HFRremainsonlyanuntestedandunfundedconcept.

- 10 -

RailPassengerImprovementPre-RequisitesWhetherHPR,HSRorHFR,therearethreebasicandunavoidablerequirementsbeforeanyrail-basedimprovementplancanproceed:policy,partnershipsandplans.Themostvitalisthedevelopmentandadoptionofafederalpolicyrecognizingmodernrailpassengerserviceaspartofamulti-modaltransportationsystem.IthasbeenthefailureofpreviousgovernmentstoadoptsuchapolicythathasledtotheconventionalVIAserviceneverbeingproperlydeveloped,fundedandsustained.Eveninthecaseoftheprovincially-proposedSouthwesternOntarioHSRproject,suchafederalpolicywillberequiredbecausethatservicewilldependtosomedegreeonfederalfundingandcooperation.Aswell,theHSRprojectwouldhavetobeexecutedwithfullconsiderationofthefutureroleoftheexisting,federally-fundedVIAservices,fromwhichitwoulddivertaconsiderableamountofridershipandrevenue.Thenewfederalgovernment’sstatementsaboutitsdesiretodealwithissuessuchasclimatechange,economicstimulusthroughpublicinvestmentandtheneedtobetterconnectCanadiancommunitiescouldallbodewellforthedevelopmentoftherequiredpolicydecision.AsubstantiallyimprovedVIAservicecouldassistinaddressingthesegovernmentpriorities,ashasbeendemonstratedinothercountrieswhererailmodernizationandupgradinghasoccurred.Whiletherehasbeennoindicationthenewgovernmenthascometothisrealization,itmaybeunrealistictoexpectsuchacommitmenttorailservicethisearlyinitsmandate.Anotherprerequisiteforeffectiverailpassengerinvestmentwillbeinter-governmentalpartnerships.HPR,HSRandHFRwouldallrequireimprovementstotheothermodes,whichwouldhavetoworkinconjunctionwiththerailpassengerservicetodeliverthemaximummobilitybenefits.Responsibilityfortheseothermodes–commuterrail,urbantransitandintercitybusservice–isscatteredbetweenthethreelevelsofgovernment.Theremustbeasharedvisionandcoordinatedactionbyalllevelsofgovernmenttoproduceacohesivesolutionwrappedaroundanyrailpassengerimprovementplan.Theremustalsobeprivatesectorbuy-in.Inthecaseoftheexistingandfutureintercitybusservicesthatcouldboostridershipbyactingasintegratedfeederstothecorerailservice,theyareregulatedbytheprovincesanddeliveredonafor-profitbasisbyprivatecompanies.Formaximumeffectiveness,thebusoperatorsmustapproveandparticipateinanyrailplan.Evenmorenecessaryisthecooperationofthefreightrailways,particularlyCN.Allthreepassengerimprovementconceptswillrequiretheexpandeduseofsomerailway-ownedinfrastructureandalessadversarialrelationshipbetweenthefreightandpassengeroperatorsthanisnowthecase.Thefreightrailwaysmustbeconvincedthatthiswillnotharmitsownserviceandwillbe,attheveryleast,“freightneutral.”Evenbetterwouldbeaplanprovidingbothfreightandpassengerbenefits,whichhasbeenthecasewithmanyU.S.HPRprojects.

- 11 -

Withalloftheseconditionsmet,thenextstepwouldbeadvancedplanning.ThisprocessisalreadyunderwayontheOntarioHSRproposal.GiventhelowlevelofdetailmadepublicbyVIA,itisimpossibletosayhowfarthisprocesshasadvancedfortheHFRoption.AsforHPR,thereisnoindicationanyoneisnowconsideringandstudyingitforinclusionintheanalysisoftherangeofcorridorimprovementoptions.Infact,thishasonlyeverbeendoneonce.Theresultwasa2002planknownasVIAFast,whichcoveredthefullQuebec-WindsorCorridor.ThatHPRplanwasendorsedbythegovernmentofPrimeMinisterJeanChretienandthencancelledbythesucceedinggovernmentofPrimeMinisterPaulMartin.AfewoftheinfrastructureelementsofVIAFastwereimplementedunderthe$1-billioncapitalfundingpackageVIAbeganreceivingfromthegovernmentofPrimeMinisterStevenHarperin2007.However,thisfellfarshortofthefullVIAFastplanandthevariousprojectsranover-budgetandover-schedule,withsomeultimatelydropped.HadalloftheprojectsinthefirstphaseoftheVIAcapitalinvestmentplanbeenimplementedandthesecondphaseapproved,itwouldhavenotchedVIAclosertoprovidingHPR-styleserviceonallthreeroutesthatcomprisetheMontreal-Ottawa-Torontotriangle.ItistemptingtosuggestthatVIAFastjustbedustedoffandresubmittedtoPrimeMinisterJustinTrudeau’sgovernment,butmanychangeshaveoccurredinthepast14yearsthatwouldmakeitdifficulttoimplementintotal.Asaresult,anewHPRconceptplanwouldneedtobedeveloped,althoughVIAFastcontainssomeconceptsandelementsthatremainapplicable.Everyrailcorridorimprovementprojectpresentsitsownsetofspecificchallengesthatvarytosomedegreefromalltheothers;thereisnoone-size-fits-allblueprinttoimplementHPRoranyotherrailservicewithoutmodification.However,basicpatternsandservice-provenlessonshaveemergedfromthesuccessfulprojectsundertakeninothercountriesthatcanbeappliedinthedevelopmentofaQuebec-WindsorCorridorHPRplan.Alsotobefactoredinaretheuniquegeographicanddemographiccharacteristicsofthecorridor,keypointsfromtheVIAFastplan,thecurrentstateofVIAandtherecentinvestmentsmadeintheexistinginfrastructure.Onthatbasis,itissuggestedthataQuebec-WindsorCorridorHPRplancouldfollowthecourseoutlinedbelow.

GettingStartedonHPRConvertingVIA’sQuebec-WindsorCorridortoHPRwouldnotrequirestartingfromscratch,assomeroutesegmentsalreadyofferservicethatisnearHPRlevels.Onsomeportionsofthenetwork,themaximumpermissiblespeedis160km/hourandothersegmentscouldbebroughtuptothatlevelwithrelativelysmallinfrastructureinvestments.Servicefrequencyishighonsomeroutesegments,withToronto-Kingstontoppingthelistwithasmanyas11eastboundarrivalsand15westbounddeparturesoncertaindays.

- 12 -

OntheMontreal-Ottawaroute,thefrequencywillbeimprovedinthenearfuturethankstoa$102-millionfundingannouncementmadetwodaysbeforetheHarpergovernmentdroppedthewritforthe2015election.Thisprojectwillresultinaslightrunningtimereductionandanincreasefromsixdailyroundtripstoeight.However,theoneaspectofVIA’scurrentoperationthatwillforeverpreventitfromprovidingtrueHPRserviceisitsmotivepowerandrollingstock.VIAoperatestheoldestfrontlinefleetintheindustrializedworldanditisakeyfactorinitshighoperatingcosts.Whilesafeandcomfortable,theVIAcorridorfleetisinefficient,inflexibleandcommerciallylife-expired,withsomeofthecoachesdatingbackto1946.VIAspentmorethan$300millionrefurbishingalargepercentageofitscorridorfleetunderthe$1-billioncapitalfundingpackageitreceivedfromtheHarpergovernment.Atbest,thiswasashort-termBand-Aidapproachtoaseriousproblem.VIAhasonlyrecentlystartedtheprocessofinvestigatingitsfleetrenewaloptions.Thecurrentplan,whichasyethasnofederalfundingcommitment,wouldn’tproducenewmotivepowerandrollingstockforsevenormoreyears.IfVIAistodeliverHPRserviceandreduceitshighoperatingcosts,thisequipmentreplacementinitiativeshouldbeaccelerated.Anewfleetwouldembodythesameservice-drivendesignprinciplesthathaveproducedtheequipmentnowusedonseveralAmtrakcorridorroutesandsoontobedeployedonseveralothers.Itshouldbecapableofserviceatupto200km/hour,offermaximumper-carpassengercapacityandonboardcomfort,highlevelsofreliabilityandavailability,andgreateroperationalflexibilitythanVIA’sconventionalfleet.AmajorrequirementofanewHPRcorridorfleetshouldbeitsabilitytoprovidebi-directional,push-pullservice.Oneofthemainproblemsaffectingtheflexibility,utilizationandcost-effectivenessofVIA’sconventionaltrainsetsisthattheycanoperateinrevenueserviceinonedirectiononlyandtheymustbephysicallyturnedaroundattheirterminals.Thisisatime-consumingprocessthatkeepsthetrainsandcrewsoutofrevenue-producingserviceforlongperiodsandpreventsquickturnaroundsatendterminals.Thealternativeispush-pulloperation,whichisstandardforcommuterserviceandisappliedwidelybyAmtrak.Withalocomotiveatoneendandafully-equippedcabcarattheother,apush-pulltrainsetarrivingatitsterminalcanbereadytoheadintheoppositedirectionwithinthetimeittakestodisembarkandboardpassengers,andforthelocomotivecrewtowalktotheoppositeendofthetrain.ThiscapabilityisanabsoluterequirementforHPRequipment.Aswell,adecisionwouldneedtobemadeastowhetherthenewrollingstockwouldbesingle-levelorbi-level.Bi-levelequipmentoffersreducedcoststhankstoitshighercapacity.FortheHPRupgradingofthecorridorswhereitisnotrestrictedtosingle-levelcarsbythedimensionsoftunnels,bridgesandroadoverpasses,Amtrakhasselectedabi-leveldesignsimilartothecarsitnowemploysonthreeroutesinCalifornia.ThisbasicdesigncouldbeadaptedandproducedinCanadafortheQuebec-WindsorCorridor,whichhasnoclearancerestrictionsnecessitatingtheuseofsingle-levelequipment.

- 13 -

LOW-COST,MAKESHIFTPUSH-PULLOPERATION:Intheabsenceofpurpose-builtHPRequipment,thereareshort-termmethodsforconvertingVIA’suni-directionaltrainsetstopush-pulloperation.OneistheAmtrakapproach(above),whichinvolvesconvertinglife-expiredlocomotivestoun-poweredcabcars.AnotheronethathasbeenoccasionallyemployedbyVIA(below)simplyuseslocomotivesonbothendsofatrainset.PhotosbyJamieWest(above)andRayFarand(below)

- 14 -

Asfornewmotivepower,theonlyNorthAmericanintercitypassengerlocomotivecurrentlyinproductionistheSiemensCharger,whichhasbeenorderedbyacoalitionofstatedepartmentsoftransportationforuseontheAmtrakcorridortrainstheysupportfinancially.Itisahigh-performance,4,400-HPunitdesignedforamaximumspeedof200km/hour.Toprovidethehigh-frequenciesofafullybuilt-outHPRservice,VIAwouldrequireaminimumof30four-carbi-leveltrainsets.BasedonthecurrentU.S.HPRprojects,thiswouldrequireaninvestmentofanestimated$750millionforrollingstockand$250millionforlocomotives.Untilanewfleetisacquired,VIAwouldhavetooptimizetheuseofitscurrentequipmenttodeliverthehigherservicelevelsnecessarytolayafoundationforintensifiedHPRoperation.TheadditionofcabcarstoVIA’scorridortrainsetstoconvertthemtopush-pulloperationisoneexampleofwhatwouldberequiredandhasbeendonebyotherpassengerrailways.Morethan20yearsago,Amtrakundertookanin-houseprojecttoconvertsomelife-expiredlocomotivestoun-poweredcabcarsatlowcost.AsimilarprogramisnowunderwayusingretiredGOlocomotivesforuseonNorthCarolina’sPiedmontCorridortrains.ComparedwithVIA’sfleet,thesehomemadepush-pulltrainsetsrunmoremilesandproducemorerevenuedaily,whilealsoreducingoperatingcosts.Thishasenabledfrequencyincreaseswithinalimitedoperatingbudget.AsimilarapproachcouldbeundertakenbyVIAasastopgapmeasurependingthedeliveryofanewHPRfleet.AnoptimizedVIAfleetwouldmakeitpossibletoaddressoneofthekeyaspectsofHPRservice:improvedfrequency.Whilemajorinfrastructureinvestmentwillberequiredbeforetheservicefrequenciescanberaisedsubstantially,smallincreasesshouldbepossiblethroughimprovedfleetutilizationandmoreefficientuseoftheexistingtrackcapacity.VIAdoeshavetherighttoaddalimitednumberoffrequenciesonthethreelegsoftheMontreal-Ottawa-TorontotriangleunderagreementsalreadyinplacewithCN.

BuildingtheMarketforHPRWithanoptimizedfleetofconventionalequipmentandmoderatelyincreasedfrequency,thenextstepwouldbethephasedintroductionofclock-facescheduling,startingwiththethreeroutesintheMontreal-Ottawa-Torontotriangle.Withtrainsdepartingatconsistentintervals,thismakesiteasierforpassengerstomemorizetheirschedulesbecausedeparturetimesrepeatatthesamepointontheclockthroughouttheday.EmployedonotherHPRoperationsaroundtheworld,thisconceptspreadsdemandoverthefulldaybyattractingmorepassengerstotheoff-peaktrips,particularlyiftheyarepricedlowerthanthepeaktrips.Fromanoperator’sperspective,clock-faceschedulingmakesbetteruseofpersonnel,theinfrastructureandtheequipment,whichinturnmakesoperationalresourceplanningeasier.Itwouldalsocreatebetterinter-routeconnectivity,makingitpossibleforpassengerstoreliablyandeasilytransferbetweentrainsontheseven-routecorridornetwork.

- 15 -

Coupledwiththeincreasedfrequenciesandtheclock-faceschedulerevision,therewouldalsobeexpandedmarketingeffortstohelpincreaseridershipbybuildingpublicawarenessofthepre-HPRimprovementsandthosethatwouldoccurthroughoutitsimplementation.Innovative,demandmanagementticketpricingwouldalsobeconductedinthebuild-uptoHPR.VIAhasalreadydonemuchonthisfront,offeringvariousfareincentivestoattractpassengerstotrainsthathaveunused,revenue-producingcapacitythatislostassoonasthosetraindepart.Whileacross-the-boardfarereductionswouldbeimpossibleuntilcostsweresubstantiallycutthroughtheefficienciesprovidedbythenewequipment,asmuchexperimentationaspossiblewithticketpricingshouldbeencouraged.TherewouldalsobeaneedfortheearlydevelopmentofacloserworkingrelationshipwiththetransitagenciesthatserveVIA’sstationsandprovidethenecessary“firstandlastmile”componentofseamless,car-freejourneys.PartoftheproblemhasbeenVIA’sgenerallylowservicelevelsandthefeelingthatitsfutureisfarfromsecure.IfVIAvanished,thiswouldstrandanyinvestmentstransitoperatorsmadetobetterconnectwiththerailservice.Withastrongpro-railpassengerpolicystatementbythenewgovernmentandademonstrablecommitmenttotheVIAHPRplan,thatnotionwouldbegintoretreat.EvenamarginalincreaseinserviceintheearlystagesoftheplanwoulddemonstratethatVIAwouldbeanintegralpartofCanada’stransportationsysteminthefuture.Wherenecessary,capitalinvestmentswouldbemadeatstationstoenabletransitandintercitybusoperatorstomoreefficientlyuseVIA’sfacilities.Insomelocations,thedegreeofpotentialconnectivityisalreadyhigh,withthestationsVIAshareswithGOintheGTHAandagencemétropolitainedetransport(AMT)inMontrealbeingtheprimeexamples.Inotherlocations,connectionswithotherlocaltransitagenciesandprivatebusoperatorsaredeficient.WorktocorrectthissituationthroughoutthecorridorwouldbeundertakenearlyintheHPRprograminclosecooperationwiththemunicipalities,theirtransitagencies,GOandAMT.

HPRPhaseIInfrastructureProjectsSeveralinfrastructureimprovementprojectsspreadthroughoutVIA’sQuebec-WindsorCorridorwouldberequiredtoprovideHPRlevelsofspeed,frequencyandreliability.ManyarerelatedtotheavailablecapacityoftheCN-ownedtracksegmentsandCN’sunwillingnesstoprioritizeitsuseforVIAinpreferencetoitsownfreighttrains,whichisunderstandable.TherewouldbetwoobjectivesinundertakingVIA-fundedinfrastructureexpansionandupgrading.ThefirstwouldbeminimizingconflictswithCNfreighttraffic.TheotherwouldbetoreduceVIA’srunningtimeswithoutincreasingitsmaximumspeed,whichis160km/houronmanyroutesegments.Forsafetyreasons,CNwillnotallowpassengeroperationabovethisspeed.Therefore,theaimshouldbeareductioninthenumberoflocationswherethepassengertrainsmustoperateatlessthantheirmaximumspeedtoincreasetheaverageend-to-endspeedsandreducethejourneytimes.

- 16 -

Toaccomplishthesetwingoals,aseriesofsidingextensionsandadditionsonsingle-tracklinesandtheadditionofseveralthirdmainlinetracksegmentsondouble-tracklineswouldberequired.SomeofthisworkwasundertakenaspartoftherecentVIAcapitalinvestmentprogram,butitdidn’tgofarenough.Extendingseveralmainlinesidingsandaddingnewonesatstrategiclocationswouldallowforfrequencyincreases,runningtimereductionsandon-timeperformanceimprovementsonVIA’sQuebec-Montreal,Toronto-SarniaandToronto-NiagaraFallsroutes.Atseveralstations,VIA’strainsneedtobeabletostopwithoutimpedingthefreightservice.Onsingle-tracklines,thesestopstodisembarkandboardpassengershaltthefreighttrafficflowinbothdirections.Ondouble-tracklines,theyoftencomplicateoperationsduetothelackofstationplatformsonthefarsideofthetracks.Thisrequiresthepassengertrainstocrossbackandforthtoservethesesingle-platformlocations,eatinguptrackcapacity.Evenwherenarrowplatformsnowexistbetweenthetwomainlinetracksandcrossovermovesarenotmade,thisrequiresthehaltingoftrainsontheothermainlinetrackduringVIA’sstationstopsforsafetyreasons.ThissituationcouldbeeliminatedatCornwall,Brockville,BrantfordandWoodstock–allofthemondouble-trackroutesegments–byrearrangingthetwomainlinetracks,constructingplatformstoservethesideofthetracksoppositethestationbuildingsandlinkingthemwithfully-accessibleunder-trackpassengertunnelsoroverheadwalkways.AtKingston,astrategicsectionoftriple-trackwouldneedtobebuiltsoCNfreighttrafficmaypasswhenVIA’strainsarestoppedatthestation.Insertingthistriple-tracksegmentwouldrequireshiftingtheplatform,modifyingtheunder-trackpassengeraccesstunnelandreplacingthestructurethatnowservesthesouthtrack.A$125-millionprojectthatwasomittedfromVIA’smostrecentcapitalinvestmentprogramwouldalsobeincludedinthefirstphaseoftheHPRproject.ThisisatCoteau,Quebec,wherethelinesfromTorontoandOttawameetontheapproachtoMontreal.ItisalsothesiteofabusyCNfreightyard.TheworkinvolvedatCoteauwouldincludereconfiguringCN’syardandthemainlinetracks,aswellasgradeseparatingahighwaycrossingatthewestendoftheyard.Withoutthisproject,thenumberofMontreal-OttawaandMontreal-TorontofrequenciesthatcouldbeaddedbyVIAwouldbeseverelyrestrictedbyCN.Additionally,aprogramofgradeseparationsandgradecrossingimprovementswouldproceedacrossthecorridor.Gradecrossingsoftenimposerestrictionsonpassengertrainsbecauseofobstructedsightlinesthatrequirethetrainstoreducespeedforsafetyreasons.Byliftingthesespeedrestrictionsthroughaprogramofgradeseparations,crossingsafetyimprovementsandtheclosureoflightly-usedcrossings,timewouldbewrungoutofVIA’sschedulesprogressively.Thiswouldalsohavebroadpublicsafetybenefits.

- 17 -

HPRPHASEI:Additionalsectionsoftriple-track,lengthenedsidings,gradeseparationsandmorestationimprovementprojectsatstrategiclocationswouldeliminatechokepointsandspeedrestrictionsthroughouttheQuebec-WindsorCorridoronaprogressivebasis.TheseprojectswouldbuildonsimilaronesundertakenonCNroutesegmentsunderVIA’srecentcapitalinvestmentplan,drawingoutthefullvalueofthoseprevious,publicly-fundedimprovementsandleadtofullHPRservice.ImagescourtesyofVIARailCanada

- 18 -

BasedonVIA’srecentcapitalinvestmentprogramandsimilarprojectsintheU.S.,theestimatedcostofthefirstphaseoftheHPRprojectwouldbringtheinfrastructuretotaltoaminimumof$2billiontoproduceasubstantialnumberofbenefitscorridor-wide.Thevitallynecessaryfleetacquisitionswouldaddanother$1billiontothecapitalbudget.UsingtheU.S.DepartmentofCommerceformulaformeasuringtheimpactofrailinvestment,HPR’sfirstphasewouldgenerateaminimumof$9billionineconomicstimulusduringitsconstructionphase.Therewouldbeadditionalandcontinuouseconomicandenvironmentalbenefitsthroughouttheoperatinglifeoftheassetsandtheservicetheywouldprovide.Allofthesecapitalinvestmentsandmajorserviceimprovementscouldbeimplementedwithinfiveyearsoftheprojectbeingapproved.Theresultwouldbearailserviceofferingmorefrequenciesoneachofthesevencorridorroutes,loweroperatingcosts,higherridershipandrevenue,greaterconnectivitywithothermodesofpublictransportationandnonegativeimpactoncurrentfreightoperations.

HPRPhaseIIInfrastructureProjectsAdditionalprojectscouldformasecondwaveofincrementalHPRinvestmentandserviceexpansion.Thesewouldonlybeundertakenoncetheexpectedlevelsofridership,revenueandcostrecoveryweregeneratedbytheproject’sfirstphase.Thesecondphasewouldconsistofseveralmajorprojectsthatwouldbeexpectedtoproduceevenlargerreductionsinjourneytimes,morefrequencyincreasesandsubstantialridershipandrevenuegains.Someofthemwouldaddmorededicated,passenger-onlytracktothecurrentVIA-ownednetwork.OnthethreetracksegmentsnowownedbyVIA(DeBeaujeu-SmithsFalls,SmithsFalls-BrockvilleandChatham-Windsor),thefocuswouldbeonincreasingthemaximumspeedfrom160km/hourto200km/hour.ThiswouldsubstantiallyreducemanyoftheimprovedrunningtimesmadepossiblebythefirstwaveofHPRinvestments.Forsafetyreasons,thiswouldrequiretheeliminationofalltheremaininggradecrossings,eitherthroughgradeseparationprojectsorclosure.Additionalprojectswouldaddall-newmileagetothis200-km/hourVIA-ownednetwork.Onepossibilityisasub-projectcontainedintheshelved2002VIAFastplan.Thiswouldinvolvetheconstructionofa67-kmcutoffbetweenSmithsFallsandGananoque.Thecutoffwouldbeusedonlybyanexpandedexpressservice,withamultiplelocalandsemi-expressOttawa-TorontoroundtripsstilloperatedonthecurrentroutethroughBrockville.Itwouldcutupto15minutesfromVIA’scurrentfour-hourexpressrunningtimeontheOttawa-Torontoroute.ConstructionoftheGananoqueCutoffwouldbesubjecttoafullenvironmentalassessment(EA)anditwouldlikelyrequireaminimumoffiveyearsforthecompleteapprovalandconstructionprocess.BasedonsimilarprojectsthathavebeenstudiedandcostedintheU.S.recently,itwouldcostapproximately$500million.

- 19 -

AnevenlargerprojectcouldconsolidateandexpandthecapacityoftheparallelCNandCPMontreal-TorontomainlinesfromapointjusteastofBelleville,atShannonville,totheeastsideofNewcastle.Theresultwouldbea114-kmlinesegmentforpassengerserviceonlyandanadjacent,freight-onlylinesegmentsharedbyCNandCP;bothwouldbedouble-tracked.ThisprojectwouldalsoallowfortheeliminationofCP’sroutealongBelleville’swaterfront,shiftingtheCPfreighttraffictotheCNcorridorandeliminating18gradecrossingswithinthecitylimits.Withtheseparationofthepassengerandfreighttraffic,andtheeliminationofallgradecrossings,VIAwouldbeabletooperateat200km/houronthisroutesegment,reducingthecurrentMontreal-TorontoandOttawa-Torontorunningtimesbyupto30minutes.Thisprojectwouldcostanestimated$1billionandafullEAwouldberequired.Aswell,itwouldbecontingentongainingtheapprovalofCNandCP,whichwouldhavenoreasontocontemplateaprojectofthisnaturebasedpurelyontheirownfreightoperatingneeds.However,thefactthatbothrailwayswouldnotberequiredtofundtheprojectanditcouldimprovetheirfreightoperationswouldbeamongitssellingpoints.AsmallerprojectthatwouldhaveanimpactonVIA’scompetitivenessinSouthwesternOntariowouldbethereconstructionofCN’s18-kmBrantfordBypassbetweenLyndenandParisJunction.Thebypasswouldbeusedbynew,peak-hourexpresstrainsontheToronto-Londonroute.Itwouldalsoallowforthere-routingofthroughCNfreighttrainsthataren’trequiredtosetofforliftcarsattheBrantfordYard,takingthemofftheexisting27-kmlinethatloopsthroughthecityandservesVIA’sstation.Thiswouldfreeupcapacityontheexistinglinesegmentforlocalandsemi-expresspassengerservice,whichwouldbeexpandedtoprovideBrantfordwithseveralmoreroundtripfrequenciesthanVIAcurrentlyprovides.Becauserailservicewasabandonedonthisright-of-waydecadesago,reconstructingitwouldbesubjecttoanEA.ItisestimatedthattheBrantfordBypassprojectwouldcost$150million,whichwouldincludetheconstructionofanew,double-trackbridgeovertheGrandRiver.AprojectthatwouldgeographicallyexpandVIA’scorridorwouldbeanextensionofitsToronto-WindsorservicebywayofCP’sDetroitRiverTunneltotaptheSoutheasternMichiganmarket.ItwouldalsoallowforadirectconnectionwithAmtrak’sPontiac-Detroit-ChicagoWolverineCorridor,whichiscurrentlybeingimprovedtoprovideHPRservice.The2002VIAFastplanincludedaDetroitextensionusinganewconnectionfromthecurrentVIA-ownedChathamSubdivisiontoCP’sWindsorSubdivisionwestofChatham,withthe72kmofCPtracktoWindsorupgraded.ThiswouldhaveincludedanewWindsorstationclosertodowntown.VIA’strainswouldhaveoperatedthroughtheCPtunneltothelineleadingtoAmtrak’sstationinDetroit’sMidtownDistrictatWoodwardAvenue.OthersuggestionsforconnectingtheVIAandCPlinesatpointsclosertoorwithinWindsorhavebeenexaminedinotherrailpassengerimprovementstudies.Whicheverroutemightbechosen,thisprojectwouldcostaminimumof$200million.ItwouldrestoreaninternationalrailconnectionthatwasbrokenwhenthejointVIA-AmtrakToronto-Sarnia-Chicagotrainwasdiscontinuedin1994.

- 20 -

TheHPRProjectinFullTheHPRprojectwouldresultinVIAowningfive200-km/hourtracksectionstotaling251mileswithintheMontreal-Ottawa-Torontotriangle.Thiswouldallowfordedicated,passenger-onlyoperationwithnoconflictswithfreighttrainsonnearlyhalfofthetrackagerequiredbythethreetriangleroutes.Capacityexpansionontheotherfourrouteswouldminimizeconflictsandproducereducedrunningtimesandhigherfrequencieswithnoimpactonfreightservice.Ataminimum,thecompletionofthesetwophasesoftheHPRprojectwouldbeabletoprovidethefollowingfrequenciesandend-to-endrunningtimes:

ROUTE DAILYROUNDTRIPS

FASTESTRUNNINGTIME

Quebec-Montreal 10 2:30Montreal-Ottawa 15 1:45Montreal-Toronto 15 3:45Ottawa-Toronto 15 3:15Toronto-Brantford-London 15 1:45Toronto-Stratford-London 8 2:15Toronto-Windsor 8 3:30Toronto-Detroit 6 3:50Toronto-Sarnia 5 2:45Toronto-NiagaraFalls 5 1:45

IfalloftheimprovementssuggestedforthesecondphaseoftheHPRprojectwereundertaken,thecostwouldbeabout$3billionandthetimerequiredfortheirconcurrentconstructionandimplementationwouldbeanestimatedfiveyears.Thiswouldbeinadditiontothecostofthenewfleetandtheinfrastructureupgradingcontainedinthefirstphaseoftheproject,whichwouldcost$3billionandrequirefiveyearstocomplete.Intotal,thistwo-phaseHPRprojectwouldcost$6billionandrequire10yearstoimplementfully,withnumerousserviceandeconomicbenefitsdeliveredincrementallythroughoutthatperiod.ThesebenefitswouldbespreadthroughoutthesevenroutesintheQuebec-WindsorCorridor.Theeconomicspin-offfromitsconstructionwouldbe$18billionto$24billion.

ConclusionsTherearenoeasy,quickorinexpensivesolutionsforbringingimprovedrailpassengerservice–oranyotherformoftransportation–totheQuebec-WindsorCorridor.Thequestioniswhetherrailcansupplytheanswerinpreferencetomajorinvestmentintheothermodesand,ifso,underwhichapproachandwithwhichtechnologies.Asthecongestion,mobilityandtransportation-producedenvironmentalchallengesofthismega-regionincrease,importantpolicyandspendingdecisionswillneedtobemadebyallstakeholders,publicandprivate.

- 21 -

Basedonextensiveinternationalexperience,itisapparentthattheHPRapproachcanprovidenumerousbenefitsthatmakeitworthyofconsiderationasoneoftherailpassengeroptions.Itschiefcharacteristics–incrementalapplicability,optimizationofexistinginfrastructure,cost-effectivenessandspeedofimplementation–makeitapotentiallypotentandprovenoption.However,whetherHPRisthedefinitiveanswerisaquestionthatcanonlybeansweredthroughhigh-levelstudyandanalysisbypartieswhohaveaccesstotherequired,andoftenconfidential,data.AstheGovernmentofOntarioexaminesitsownHSRproposalfortheSouthwesternOntariomarketandVIApromotesitsHFRconceptfortheMontreal-Ottawa-Torontotriangle,thereneedstobeanin-depthexaminationofHPRasanoptionfortheseroutesandalltheothersthatcomprisethecurrentVIAQuebec-WindsorCorridornetwork.Whatshouldalsobeconsideredisthepossibilityofcombiningthetworailoptionsnowunderstudywithafully-developed,corridor-wideHPRplan.CouldanextensivelyupgradedMontreal-Ottawa-SmithsFallsroute,whichformspartofVIA’sHFRproposal,andportionsofthe200-km/hourToronto-London-WindsoroptionnowbeingstudiedbyOntariobeweldedintoanHPRprogramthatwouldthenblankettheentirecorridor?Ultimately,thenewfederalgovernmentwillhavethelargestsayinwhichapproachistaken,ifany.OncethatdecisionismadebyOttawa,itwillreverberateforgenerations,affectingthefutureeconomic,socialandenvironmentalprosperityoftheQuebec-WindsorCorridorandthenation.Itshouldalsoberememberedthatthisdecisionwillalsocomewithaconsiderablepublicinvestment,evenifOttawadoesnotassumeallthedirectcosts.Therefore,itbehoovesthefederalgovernmentandalltheotheraffectedpublicandprivatestakeholderstomakeaninformedandobjectivedecisionthatwillbeinthepublicinterest.Onevidenceevaluatedinthepreparationofthisdiscussionpaper,itisrecommendedthatHPRreceiveacomprehensiveandobjectiveevaluation.