The global challenge to feed and clothe the world’s population in a changing climate - M.S....

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Melbourne, 15 February 2011 M.S. Swaminathan, FRS UNESCO Chair in Ecotechnology M S Swaminathan Research Foundation, Chennai, India Global Challenge to Feed and Clothe the World’s Population in a Changing Climate The CCRSPI Conference 2011

Transcript of The global challenge to feed and clothe the world’s population in a changing climate - M.S....

Page 1: The global challenge to feed and clothe the world’s population in a changing climate - M.S. Swaminathan

Melbourne, 15 February 2011

M.S. Swaminathan, FRSUNESCO Chair in Ecotechnology

M S Swaminathan Research Foundation, Chennai, India

Global Challenge to Feed and Clothe the World’s Population in a Changing Climate

The CCRSPI Conference 2011

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Source: FAO

Price Volatility : Threat to Food Security

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• Goal of restricting temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius

• For each 1 degree Celsius rise in mean temperature, wheat yield losses in India are likely to be around 6 million tonnes per year, or around $1.5 billion at current prices

Cancun Agreements (December 2010)Implications for Wheat Production

• IFPRI projects that rainfed wheat yields in South Asia will decrease by around 44% by 2050, if adaptation measures are not put in place

Common but Differentiated Impact

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Need for Genetic checkmating of new disease threats

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Source: Global Ecological Footprint, 2011

Unsustainable Consumption of Natural Resources

Expanding Ecological Footprint – Threat to Food Security

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“Intensive cultivation of land without conservation of soil fertility and soil structure would lead ultimately to the springing up of deserts. Irrigation without arrangements for drainage would result in soils getting alkaline or saline. Indiscriminate use of pesticides, fungicides and herbicides could cause adverse changes in biological balance as well as lead to an increase in the incidence of cancer and other diseases, through the toxic residues present in the grains or other edible parts. Unscientific tapping of underground water would lead to the rapid exhaustion of this wonderful capital resource left to us through ages of natural farming. The rapid replacement of numerous locally adapted varieties with one or two high yielding strains in large contiguous areas would result in the spread of serious diseases capable of wiping out entire crops, as happened prior to the Irish potato famine of 1845 and the Bengal rice famine of 1942. Therefore, the initiation of exploitative agriculture without a proper understanding of the various consequences of every one of the changes introduced into traditional agriculture and without first building up a proper scientific and training base to sustain it, may only lead us into an era of agricultural disaster in the long run, rather than to an era of agricultural prosperity.”

M.S. Swaminathan Indian Science Congress, Varanasi, January 4, 1968

Sustainable Food Production : Early Warning

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Green Revolution : Commodity-centred increase in productivity

Change In plant architecture, and harvest indexChange in the physiological rhythm-insensitive tophotoperiodismLodging resistance

Evergreen Revolution : increasing productivity in perpetuity without associated ecological harm

Organic agriculture : cultivation without any use of chemical inputs like mineral fertilizers and chemical pesticides

Green Agriculture : conservation farming with the help of integrated pest management, integrated nutrient supply and integrated natural resource management

If farm ecology and economics go wrong, nothing else will go right

From Green to an Ever-green RevolutionPathways

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Mitigating Climate Change : Role of Terrestrial Carbon Banks

• Global net primary productivity (NPP) = 120 Gt/c/year

• Most of it is returned to the atmosphere through plant and

soil respiration

• If 10% of NPP is retained in the terrestrial biosphere (ie,

soil, plants, wetlands, mangrove ecosystems) , 12 Gt/c/year

can become part of a terrestrial carbon bank

• Increasing soil C pool by 1 ton c/ha/year in the root zone

can increase food production by 30 to 50 million tonnes

Source : Prof Rattan Lal

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Faidherbia confers double advantages – carbon sequestration

and soil nutrient enrichment

60 years of research shows on each hectare, mature trees supply the equivalent of 300kg of complete fertilizer and 250kg

of lime. This can sustain a maize yield of 4 tons/ha

Pathway to Mitigation : Planting Billion Fertilizer Trees Eg. Faidherbia Albida

Source : ICRAF

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Gene Bank Seed Bank Water BankGrain Bank

Conservation - Cultivation – Consumption - Commerce

Pathway to achieving the UN Millennium Development Goal of Eradicating hunger

and poverty

Community Food and Water Security System

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Deepwater (floating) rice has three special adaptations:

i. ability to elongate with the rise of water levels;

ii. develop nodal tillers and roots from the upper nodes in the water

iii. the upward bending of the terminal part of the plant called 'kneeing' that keeps the reproductive parts above the water as flood water subsides.

Rice – Anchor of Food Security in an era of global warming

Facing the challenge of Floods

Anticipatory Research

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True Potato Seed

Answer to the challenge of producing disease free planting material as a result of rise in temperature

Sustaining the Potato Revolution

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19 varieties of Yam in 4 species were in Cultivation (as of 2006) but less than 5 in rural market and none in urban market

Dioscorea alata 1. Inchikachil I & II`2. Kuzhikavithu I3. Kuzhikavithu II4. Quintalkachil I 5. Quintalkachil II 6. Anakomban7. Kaduvakkayyan8. Urulan kachil9. Kuppathottikizhangu10. Elivalankachil11. Neendi/Veetukizhangu12. Vella kachil I & II13. Chorakachil/cherakachil/chuvappukachil/ Neela kachil I, II

& III

Dioscorea esculenta 14. Nanakizhangu15. Vella Enchi kachil16. Mullan KachilDioscorea rotundata 17.Africankachil 18. Thoonankachi Dioscorea bulbifera 19. Erachikachil/Adathappu

Life Saving Crops

in Wayanad

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Climate Resilient Farming

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Mixed Cropping – Coping Mechanism Against Natural Calamities

Kolli Hills, Tamil Nadu

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Gene Banks for a Warming PlanetCommunity Gene & Seed Banks

National Gene Bank

Svalbard – Global Seed Vault

Conservation continuum

Biodiversity is the Feedstock for Climate Resilient Farming

A similar Seed Vault has been established by

DRDO at Chang La in the Himalayas

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Bio-Shield against Sea Level Rise

Mangrove Forests

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US Patent No. 7,622,636 Issued on Nov. 24, 2009, Assigned to M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation for Dehydrin Gene

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Prosopis juliflora has wide adaptation to water stress and drought conditions

Used as source of drought tolerant genes

Control 36 days of water withdrawal

 Genetic Shield against adverse changes in precipitation

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Patents granted for ----

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Untransformed Transgenic rice

N P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

The transformed plants with ferritin gene shows three time increase in iron content

Genetic Fortification : Iron Rich Rice

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Harvest Plus: Schedule of Product Releases

Crop NutrientsRelease Year of Initial

Lines*

Sweetpotato Pro-vitamin A 2007

Bean Iron, Zinc 2010

Pearl Millet Iron, Zinc 2011

Rice Zinc, Iron 2012

Maize Pro-vitamin A, Zinc, Iron 2013

Wheat Zinc, Iron 2013

Cassava Pro-vitamin A 2014

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National Biotechnology Regulatory Authority

The bottom line of our national

agricultural biotechnology policy should

be the economic well being of farm

families, food security of the nation,

health security of the consumer,

biosecurity of agriculture and health,

protection of the environment and the

security of national and international

trade in farm commodities”

(M S Swaminathan Panel 2004)

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National Level Hub (MSSRF)Data Managers (both connectivity and content)

Data Generators & Providers

ISRO Uplink/DownlinkSatellite

Web based interactive

portal

Internet

Hub and Spokes Model

Jamsetji Tata National Virtual Academy for Rural Prosperity (NVA) - 2003

Information Users (Rural families)Village Knowledge Centres (VKC)

Block level hubsVillage Resource Centre

(VRC)

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Information on Wave Height and location of fish shoalTransformational Technology

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HungerChronicHiddenTransient

Food SecurityAvailabilityAccessAbsorption

Awareness – Analysis - Action

MSSRF / WFP : Food Insecurity Atlas

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Combating Hidden Hunger / Moringa oleifera

Annual Moringa

Variety

developed at

the Tamil Nadu

Agricultural

University

Promote the Consumption of Millet and Moringe

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Impact of Technology on Cotton in India

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Bikaneri Nerma (BN-Bt Strain)

First public sector Bt Cotton variety suitable for rainfed farming

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Sparse forest trees with vegetables, millet, wheat and fodder

Thorny forest with pearl millet and fodder

Thorny forest, pearl millet sorghum and sunflower

Wheat, Paddy and pulses

Sorghum, pearl millet, pigeon pea and groundnut

Paddy, maize, barley, pigeon pea and groundnut

Millets, pulses and oilseeds

Paddy, maize barley, pigeon pea and jute

Paddy, sorghum, pigeon pea and soybean

Paddy, millets, pigeon pea, and blackgram

Paddy, pulses and groundnut

Paddy,maize, pigeon pea

Wheat, millets, maize, rice and horticultural crops

Paddy, jute, tea and horticultural crops

Millets, potato, pulses

Millets, maize and potato, paddy and jute

Paddy, coconut, blackgram, sunflower and groundnut

Paddy, tapioca, coconut and spices

Paddy, coconut, oil palm pineapple, tapioca and pepper

127 AGRO-CLIMATIC SUB-ZONES BASED ON CROPPING AND WEATHER PATTERNS

Managing Climate Change

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AGRO-CLIMATIC ZONE

CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT CENTRES

SUB- ZONE

LOCATION-SPECIFIC CLIMATE AND CROP MANAGEMENT

CLIMATE SIMULATION MODELS1. Alternative cropping strategies2. Seed reserves to implement contingency plans3. Market fluctuations and pricing

Community Climate Risk Managers

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• A ‘Training Module’ on ‘Climate Risk Management’ has been put

together• Three Training workshops for selected Panchayat Leaders (about

70) from various districts of Tamil Nadu were organized. A wo• An exclusive Training facility to train ‘Master Trainers’ is envisaged

to take up the Climate Care movement across states.

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Mitigation (Reducing Green Gas Emissions)

Carbon dioxide Reducing deforestation and forest degradation and promoting afforestation

Methane Biogas Plants

Nitrous Oxide Neem Coated Urea

A Biogas Plant, a Farm Pond and a few Fertilizer Trees in every Farm

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Water Security : WAR for Water

(Winning, Augmentation and Renovation)

• Rain Water Harvesting

• Recycling of wastewater

• Conjunctive use of water

• Technologies for desalination

• Providing safe drinking water for rural and remote areas

Components

Department of Science and Technology

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Water Security : Small Water Harvesting Structures (Jal Kund)

Ideal for areas like Sorah (Chirappunji)

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Watershed Development - Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme

Marry intellect with labour

Every Watershed – a Bioindustrial Watershed

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Natural ResourcesConservation

and Enhancement

SustainableLivelihood

o Lando Watero Biodiversityo Common Propertyo Resources

On-farm Non-farm

o Diversificationo Value Addition

Market drivenSHGs

Biovillages

Institutional Structures for Climate Risk Management

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Biovillage

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The goal of the Biovalley is to promote biohappiness through integrated attention to the conservation, sustainable use and equitable sharing of the bioresources of the area leading to health, work and income security. Conservation Farming will include steps for soil health enhancement, harvesting and efficient use of rain water and saving and using plants for saving lives and strengthening livelihoods.

Biovalley in Koraput District

Biovalley is to Biotechnology (BT), what Silicon Valley is to Information Technology (IT)

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Biomass – an under-

utilized resource for

enhancing income,

energy

and work security

Bio-Park

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Sea Water constitutes nearly 97% of global water sources

Dandi March(6 April 1930) of Mahatma Gandhi

Sea Water : A Social Resource

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Agro-Aqua farming with sea water

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Innovations in below sea level farming in KuttanadONE RICE - ONE FISH

Punja seasonNovember- February

Low chemical input or OrganicYield- 4.2 t/ha

April- OctoberMonoculture – Giant Prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii)Polyculture*- Indian major carps or common carps or Silver carps and grass carps and Giant PrawnYield- Rice: 4.2 t/ha Fish- Prawn: 480 kg; Carp : 300 kg.

* Recommended practice

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Genetic Garden of HALOPHYTES at Vedaranyam

Obligatory halophytes Facultative halophytes

Tolerate high concentrationof sodium salts

> 3 times of seawater salinity

Even demand high NaCl for survival and reproduction

1560 species

Most of the species tolerate only moderate level of salinity

Reproduction requires low saline condition

Mangroves

60 species

Converting Sea Water into Fresh Water through Halophytes

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Impact of Climate on Fisheries

Source : NATURE, Vol 467, 2 Sept 2010

Bolivia

Cold : 15ºC to 4ºC during July

– August

6 million fishes to thousands of

alligators, turtles and river

dolphins

Page 46: The global challenge to feed and clothe the world’s population in a changing climate - M.S. Swaminathan

Population growth can be

limited if people have a duty

towards those who are not

yet born, that duty is not to

give them existence but to

give them happiness.

- CONDORCET (1795)

Children for Happiness