The Future of the Internet - National Geo

8/12/2019 The Future of the Internet - National Geo

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THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNETEXPERT-SURVEY RESULTS

Lee Rainie

Director Pew Internet ProjectDigital Capital Week

National Geographic

6.15.10


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Future of the internet June 15, 2010 2

2000

46% of adults use internet

5% with broadband at home

50% own a cell phone

0% connect wirelessly

two-thirds use cloud

48% = tech social networkers

NOW: faster, mobile

connections built around

outside servers and storage


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Futurism 101 the technology side

Computing capacity: The price/performance ratio ofcomputing hardware doubles every 18-24 months

(Moores Law) Bandwidth capacity: Doubles every two years in

wired environment (Gilders Law and Nielsens Law)

Doubles every 2.5 years - wireless (Coopers Law).

Digital storage capacity: Doubled every 23 monthssince 1956 (Kryders Law)

Others:miniaturization, density of graphical displays,file compression, sensor/RFID proliferation


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Futurism 101 the operating/apps side

Search improvements Relevance quality information Real time Relatedness

Expansion of local awareness Conversational user interface Translation improvements Social graph expansions and nuances Rise of the internet of things


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Metaverse Roadmaphttp://www.metaverseroadmap.org/overview/

Augmentation

Simulation

Extern

al

Internal

AugmentedReality

Lifelogging

Mirror

Worlds

Virtual

Worlds


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Survey basicsFourth such survey

With Elon University, N.C. reports and books by Cambria

PressExperts pool

those identified from1990-1995 period

new invitees since 2004 (high-tech organizations)

pass-along recommendations and friends of Pew Internet

http://www.elon.edu/predictions/


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Survey 1 2005 reportHits (impact by 2014)

Online security would be a growingproblem and attacks increase

Journalism and publishing would beslammed

Health systems not change radicallyMiss (so far)

Classroom structures and lessonswould change

Surprises Awed by rise of web, search engines,

and P2P

Disappointed by lack of change so farin schools and digital divides



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Boundary between work andhome would shrivel

Virtual reality would be morecompelling to some than real

life

No consensus

Personal transparency wouldyield more tolerance andforgiveness



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Mobile devices would becomeprimary connection devices

Haptic interfaces talk andtouch, maybe think would

rise

No consensus

Transparency would lead tomore personal integrity andforgiveness



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Survey 4 -- BasicsResults this time 895 respondents

371 past participant experts 524 new recruits and friends

15% research scientists/scholars 14% business leaders or

entrepreneurs

12% consultants or futurists 12% authors, editors or journalists 9% technology developers or

administrators 7% advocates or activists 3% pioneers or originators 2% legislators, politicians or lawyers 25% specified themselves other



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Question strategy Tension pairs

force choice in

opposingstatements

Narrativeelaborations

Subject choice (notour predictions)



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http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200807/google


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Will Google make us stupid?By 2020, peoples use of the

Internet has not enhanced

human intelligence and itcould even be lowering the

IQs of most people who useit a lot. Nicholas Carr was

right: Google makes us

stupid

16% experts21% full sample

By 2020, peoples use of the

Internet has enhanced

human intelligence; aspeople are allowed

unprecedented access tomore information, they

become smarter and make

better choices. NicholasCarr was wrong: Google

does not make us stupid



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Themes Cognitive capacities will shift. New literacies will be required. Fourth R

will be retrieval. Extreme Googlers.

Technology isnt the problem here. It ispeoples inherent character traits.

Performance of information markets is abig unknown, especially in the age of socialmedia and junk information. Google will

improve.


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Are hot new gadgets and apps evident now?


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Are hot new gadgets evident now?Hot gadgets and apps that

will capture the

imagination of users in

2020 will often come outof the blue and not

have been anticipated

by many of todays

savviest innovators.


The hot gadgets and

applications that will

capture the imagination

of users in 2020 arepretty evident today

and will not take many

of todays savviest

innovators by surprise.



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Themes iPhone, iPhone, iPhone Innovation ecosystem will change: bandwidth / processing Still, there are basic trends evident now and some

groundwork that has been in place for years that will yieldinnovation.

The internet of things Sensors proliferate Mobile connectivity and location-based services grow Bigger/thinner TVs -- 3D displays Consolidated, all-purpose gadgets and apps


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What is the future of online anonymity?


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What is the future of online anonymity?By 2020, Internet users can do a lot

of normal online activities

anonymously even though the

identification systems used on

the Internet have been applied

to a wider range of activities. It

is still relatively easy for

Internet users to create

content, communicate, and

browse without publicly

disclosing who they are.


By 2020, the identification ID

systems used online are tighter

and more formal fingerprints or

DNA-scans or retina scans. The

use of these systems is the

gateway to most of the Internet-

enabled activity that users are

able to perform such as

shopping, communicating,

creating content, and browsing.

Anonymous online activity issharply curtailed.



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Themes The law and new regulations will give people some

privacy protections even though they are required to

disclose more.

There are still sufficient workarounds that will allowpeople some measure of anonymity. Pseudonymity

will be available to people.

Confidentiality and autonomy will replace yearning foranonymity.

The rise of social media is as much a challenge toanonymity as authentication requirements. Reputation

management and information responsibility will

emerge.


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The impact of the internet on institutions


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The impact of the internet on institutionsBy 2020, governments,

businesses, non-profits

will primarily retain

familiar 20th century

models for conduct of

relationships with

citizens and consumers

online and offline.


By 2020, innovative forms of

online cooperation will

result insignificantly

more efficient and

responsive

governments, business,

non-profits, and other

mainstream institutions.



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Themes

The tide is too strong to resist pressures fortransparency are powerful

The future is unevenly distributed businesseswill change most; governments least

Data will be the platform for change Workarounds, facilitated by social media, will be

common

Efficiency and responsiveness arent the samething

Anonymous worries about corporate power


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Impact of internet on reading, writing, rendering

of knowledge?


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Impact of internet on reading, writing, rendering

of knowledge?

By 2020, it will be clear

that the Internet has

diminished and

endangered reading,writing, and the

intelligent rendering

of knowledge.


By 2020, it will be clear

that the Internet has

enhanced and

improved reading,writing, and the

rendering of

knowledge.



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Themes

People are doing more reading and writing now andthat hasto be better than the alternative. Participation

breeds engagement.

Reading and writing will be different in 10 years. Therewill be a new fluidity in media creation and screen

literacy will become important.

The nature of writing has changed now, especiallysince so much of it takes place in public. The quality of

the new material will get better thanks to feedback andflamers.

Networked information links and mashups arechanging the creation and consumption process.


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The cloud vs. the desktop


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The cloud vs. the desktop

By 2020, most people will still

do their work with software

running on a general-purpose PC. The most

innovative and importantapplications will run on (and

spring from) a PC operating

system. Aspiring applicationdesigners will write mostly

for PCs.


By 2020, most people won't do

their work with software

running on a general-purpose PC. Instead, they

will work in Internet-basedapplications. Most

innovative work will be done

in that domain, instead ofdesigning applications that

run on a PC OS.



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Themes

The advantages of ubiquitous access and mobilitytrump other things.

The edges will give way to the center, with apredictable loss of personal control of information.

Security problems will result and new kinds ofprivacy disputes are inevitable.

Ordinary users wont know the difference or carevery much.

A hybrid world of cloud and desktop will evolve aseach system finds its own primary value. Strains on

spectrum might drive people back to device-based

computing.


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Will internet be dominated by end-to-end principle?


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Will internet be dominated by end-to-end principle?

In the years between now and

2020, the Internet will mostly

become a technology whereintermediary institutions that

control the architecture andsignificant amounts ofcontent will be successfulin

gaining the right to manage

information and the method by

which people access and shareit.


In the years between now and 2020,

the Internet will mostly remain a

technology based on the end-

to-end principle that was

envisioned by the Internets

founders.Most disagreementsover the way information flows

online will be resolved in favor of a

minimum number of restrictions

over the information available

online and the methods by which

people access it.



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Themes

There is too much good history and user buy-in to partwith end-to-end internet to see it largely overturned.

Openness has its own virtues and those who resist itwill fall behind those who enable it.

Those who took the opposite view were not necessarilyhappy about it, but they argued there are many forces

pushing towards more control of the internet:

governments, businesses, users themselves to ward off

bad experiences

Some things will have to be managed, especially if thecapacity of the current internet becomes strained.


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The fate of the semantic web


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The fate of the semantic web

By 2020, the semantic

web envisioned by

TBL and his allies will

have been achieved toa significant degree

and have clearly made

a difference to the

average internet users.


By 2020, the semantic

web envisioned by Tim

Berners-Lee will not be

as fully effective as itscreators hoped and

average users will not

have noticed much of

a difference.



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Themes

There is too much variation among people andeconomic competitors to allow it to happen.

Improvements are inevitable, but they will not unfoldthe way TBL & Co. have sketched out. They will be

grassroots-driven rather than standards-driven. Data

mining, links, analysis of social exchanges will help

drive the process of smartening the web.

The semantic web will not really take off until it findsits killer app. The killer app will come when we can askthe internet questions. Conversational searchcould be

the key.

There will be upstairs/downstairs deployment.


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Still to come: Human relations / Millennials

grow up


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Human relations

85%

In 2020, when I look at the big

picture and consider my

personal friendships,

marriage and otherrelationships, I see that the

internet has mostly been a

positive force on my social

world. And this will only growmore true in the future.


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Aging Millennials

67%69%

By 2020, members of Generation Y

will continue to be ambient

broadcasters who disclose a great

deal of personal information in order

to stay connected and take

advantage of social, economic, and

political opportunities. Even as they

mature, have families, and take on

more significant responsibilities,their enthusiasm for widespread

information sharing will carry

forward.


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Thank you!

Lee Rainie

Director

Pew Internet & American Life Project1615 L Street NW

Suite 700

Washington, DC 20036

Email: [email protected]: http://twitter.com/lrainie

202-419-4500

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