The extreme future of organizations and what it means for your business

frederic de meyer founder

institute for future insights

frederic@i4fi.com

www.i4fi.com

www.fredericdemeyer.com

why do I have to bother about

long-term trends?

let’s start with a challenge:

what do these have in common?

here’s a hint…

Ford almost got out of

business in the early

1900’s for sticking to it

standardized products

In 2002 Barbie lost its

market predominance

to a new competitor

who just entered this

market the year

before

Until 2006 Coca Cola

was boycotted

multiple times in India

due to its water

mismanagement

practices

GM’s Hummer saw

sales drop 85% from

2006 to 2009

sometimes long-term shifts can

have short-term consequences!

Building a vision of the future is about

connecting the dots

There’s different types of megatrends

DEMOGRAPHIC

• aging population • increasing world population • genY/Milennials • urbanization/geographic mobility • multi-ethnic society • widening gap rich-poor

BUSINESS TRENDS

• shared value (CSR) • social Entrepreneurship • Cause marketing • social Business • open inno/sourcing

trends we can be relatively certain of:

TECHNOLOGY

• ubiquitous computing • disintermediation • crowdsourcing • social Media • SaaS, DIY • cloud Computing

• disintermediation • crowdsourcing • social Media • augmented Reality • 3D • enhanced humans

• decentralization • gamification • virtualization • new business models

• trade blocs and unions • the Market State

trends that are taking shape but future impact relatively uncertain:

a tiny bit speculative:

SUSTAINABILITY

• global warming • scarcity of resources • energy dependency

• declining biodiversity • green technologies

CONSUMER • mass customization

• radical transparency • social buying • sustainable/ethical buying

SOCIETY • dematerialization (digitization)

• talent shortage • boundary blurring • digital divide

GEOPOLITICS • power shift to East • globalization 3.0 • rising middle class

• trade blocs and unions • the Market State • Virtual currencies

The future of professional organizations

can a $40b company be run by a single person?

The world becomes your R&D center

Open innovation

platforms Open sourcing

User generated

innovation

Most of Fortune 500 use

open innovation now

Open sourcing spreads even

to pharmaceutical market

Fiat Mio made through input

of +10,000 customers

Manufacturing without factories

3D printing impact on manufacturing, spare parts, transport, logistics, …

New opportunities in design and software

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Open Innovation

Open source

Open Innovation

Open source

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Can marketing tasks be done more efficiently with

alternative business models?

The world is your sales team

Technology becomes pervasive

Are Cloud computing, consumerization of IT and Do-it-Yourself

Taking away control and responsibility of IT?

What would a virtual company look like?

Open Innovation

Open source

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Crowdsourcing Social buying

Affiliate programs

‘Crowd-selling’

R&D

Manufact

uring

Marketing

Sales Admin

Cust.

Service

ICT

Virtual company

Open Innovation

Open source

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Crowdsourcing Social buying

Affiliate programs

‘Crowd-selling’ Micro-tasking

Cloud, Consumerization,

DIY

Virtual Self help

Social media

Disadvantages: • complexity • loss of control • less loyalty from contributors

Advantages:

• cost-efficiency gains • lean company

• constant innovation • more loyalty from customers

What would a virtual company look like?

R&D

Manufac

turing

Marketing

Sales Admin

Cust.

Service

ICT

Virtual company

Open Innovation

Open source

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Crowdsourcing Social buying

Affiliate programs

‘Crowd-selling’ Micro-tasking

Virtual Social media

Self help

Cloud Consumeri

zation

What would a virtual company look like?

R&D

Manufact

uring

Marketing

Sales Admin

Cust.

Service

ICT

Open Innovation

Open source

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Crowdsourcing Social buying

Affiliate programs

‘Crowd-selling’ Micro-tasking

Virtual Social media

Self help

Cloud Consumerization

But what does it mean for your business?

R&D

Manufac

turing

Marketing

Sales HRM

Cust.

Service

ICT

Virtual company

Open Innovation

Open source

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Crowdsourcing Social buying

Affiliate programs

‘Crowd-selling’ Micro-tasking

Virtual Social media

Self help

Cloud Consumeri

zation

Building your vision of the future is about

connecting the dots

www.i4fi.com www.fredericdemeyer.com

additional questions: frederic@i4fi.com

The future cannot be predicted …but it can be made !

(ancient African saying)

Are you prepared to make the maximum out of long-term trends?

Now available on

click here (in presentation mode)

“Frederic offers a unique insight of how global changes

translate into new business opportunities. This book is an

essential tool for any future-oriented manager or

entrepreneur and anyone involved in innovation strategies”

Philippe De Ridder, co-founder, Board of Innovation

“Designing and implementing a good strategy is quite a

challenge. In an increasingly complex world, it is becoming

increasingly difficult to recognize the core from the noise.

This book on megatrends will help you do this. It will give

you the necessary insights to focus on the themes that are

crucial to the future of your company. A must read!”

Jeroen De Flander, co-founder, The Performance

Factory, author of Strategy Execution Heroes

“This excellent book is a comprehensive overview of the

major trends and also offers a methodology to better assess

the future reality and master its consequences. The author

provides an essential guide for any strategy exercise”

Peter Corijn, Vice-President, Procter & Gamble

Are you prepared to make the maximum out of long-term trends?

Now available at: www.i4fi.com/useful_tools

40 megatrend fact-sheets that will:

prepare your team for long-

term planning session;

help you understand the long-term challenges of your

business;

discover new opportunities

for your business;

generate innovative ideas to ensure your long-term success!