The Future of Mobile By Colin Sidoti

About Me and This Presentation

I'm a product guy, but I can do engineering too. Earlier this year, I launched a group messaging service for mobile phones. That experience gave me a lot of insight about mobile. This presentation is a summary of my current feelings on mobile and where it's headed.

Key Points

● Traditional Voice/SMS will be obsolete● Cellular providers will become mobile

internet providers● Mobile and Desktop/Tablet will be deeply

integrated● Phone Numbers will be obsolete● There will be a monopoly Note: These changes will take years

Common Mistake

Bringing "social" to mobile is not the goal. Smartphones already have social integration through Facebook's applications.

The Real Goal

The real goal is to create more efficient and more convenient communication channels. Traditional Voice and SMS suck, they are what need to be improved. Better communication channels WILL attract users! The proof is in the startups...

Startup Highlight 1: GroupMe

GroupMe created technology to add group messaging to SMS. Before being sold to Skype, GroupMe was sending over 100 million group messages per month to millions of users in 90 countries. GroupMe created a more efficient and more convenient communication channel. Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-groupme?op=1

Startup Highlight 2: WhatsApp

WhatsApp is an alternative messaging app that uses the internet instead of the cell network. Messages are instantaneous and lack the arbritrary 160 character restriction. Despite it's initial download fee, WhatsApp users send over 1 billion messages per day. WhatsApp created a more efficient and more convenient communication channel.

Startup Highlight 3: Voxer

Voxer is an alternative Voice/Text/Picture messaging application. Every media form is displayed inline, and can be viewed or played back at any time. At the time of writing, Voxer is going viral WhatsApp created a more efficient and more convenient communication channel.

To Reiterate...

Consumers want better ways to communicate. 3G and 4G data connections have created an opportunity to improve communication. New technologies like GroupMe, WhatsApp, and Voxer will continue to be developed until traditional Voice/SMS is obsolete.

Alright, so what's next?

There is a clear trend towards improved communication, but who will ultimately win? Can there be more than one winner?

Communication will be a monopoly

The goal is to create the most efficient and most convenient communication channels possible. To truly be the most convenient, there must be only one offering. Using multiple applications is annoying. So yes, I suspect there will only be one winner.

Who Will Win?

What company is in a position to create the MOST efficient and MOST convenient communication channels? 1. Facebook2. Google3. Apple4. Startups5. Wireless Carriers

About the winner...

The winner will create their own phone, there is no way around it. Applications simply do not provide enough capabilities to be the most efficient and most convenient.

1. Facebook - Advantages

Facebook controls social. They have my connections and anyone else I'd want to contact in their database somewhere. Agile company, wouldn't need to significantly restructure to make this happen. Very established userbase and tons of dedicated developers.

1. Facebook - Advantages Cont.

By having users port their number to Facebook, communication could be possible through Facebook.com as well as a Facebook Phone. People already use Facebook.com constantly, so this wouldn't require a significant behavioral switch from consumers.

1. Facebook - Disadvantages

Business relationships often do not exist on Facebook. This needs to change, or business people will never buy a Facebook phone. Facebook operates on rapid iteration, Android makes rapid iteration very difficult. They would need to find a way around this.

2. Google - Advantages

Google has a very established userbase. Having a "Facebook Phone" might be weird, but a "Google Phone" would not. Through Android and Google Voice, they already have corporate partnerships and experience to make this happen.

2. Google - Disadvantages

Google does not have a great history of launching disruptive products for consumers. Google+ may not be a large enough social graph to rely on.

3. Apple - Advantages

Indisputably has created the best phone, and can leverage that position to move into a social product. iMessage is a start Control a lot of desktop/tablets for cross platform functionality

3. Apple - Disadvantages

No social graph to rely on.

About the Social Graph

Mobile should be deeply integrated with social. Facebook restricts mobile phone numbers from developers because of public outcry. Ironically, this prevents other companies from making a mobile phone with great social integration.

Social Repercussions

By using a phone that relies on the social graph, phone numbers become obsolete. Instead, adding someone on Facebook, Google+, or another service will be enough to contact them on their mobile device. Woah.