The Future Need for Petroleum Geoscientists Future of Earth Scientists Committee
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Transcript of The Future Need for Petroleum Geoscientists Future of Earth Scientists Committee
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
The Future Need for
Petroleum Geoscientists
Future of Earth Scientists CommitteeFuture of Earth Scientists Committee
AAPG House of DelegatesAAPG House of Delegates
Donald W. LewisDonald W. Lewis
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
ApproachApproach
• Add AAPG + SEG membership, eliminate overlap and use only Add AAPG + SEG membership, eliminate overlap and use only members working in petroleum industrymembers working in petroleum industry
• Project current membership to 2020, assuming retirement at 65Project current membership to 2020, assuming retirement at 65
• Relate membership to oil & gas production and project to 2020Relate membership to oil & gas production and project to 2020
• Compare geoscientist demand to supply at current rate of Compare geoscientist demand to supply at current rate of people obtaining geoscience degrees and entering petroleum people obtaining geoscience degrees and entering petroleum industryindustry
What will the Demand for Petroleum Geoscientists What will the Demand for Petroleum Geoscientists Be to the Year 2020?Be to the Year 2020?
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
Edwards 2001YEAR
Estimates of 21st CenturyEstimates of 21st CenturyWorld Energy SuppliesWorld Energy Supplies
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
Edwards 2001
Estimates of 21st CenturyEstimates of 21st CenturyUnited States Energy SuppliesUnited States Energy Supplies
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
AAPG + SEG Members in Worldwide Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Members in Worldwide Petroleum Industry1978 - 2001 (Overlap Excluded)1978 - 2001 (Overlap Excluded)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
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30000
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78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000
AAPG
SEG
SEG increase innon-U.S. members
Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes SEG - AAPG overlapExcludes SEG - AAPG overlap
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
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5000
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15000
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25000
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35000
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78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000
AAPG + SEG Members in U.S. Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Members in U.S. Petroleum Industry1978 - 2001 (Overlap Excluded)1978 - 2001 (Overlap Excluded)
AAPG
SEG
Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes SEG - AAPG overlapExcludes SEG - AAPG overlap
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
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1000
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7000
'<21 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 >95
Age
SEG
AAPG
Worldwide AAPG +SEG Membership in 2001Worldwide AAPG +SEG Membership in 2001
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
United States AAPG +SEG Membership in 2001United States AAPG +SEG Membership in 2001
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500
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2000
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3500
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'<21 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 '>95
Age
SEG
AAPG
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
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5000
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15000
20000
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45000
78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020
AAPG + SEG Members in Worldwide Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Members in Worldwide Petroleum Industry1978 - 2020 (Overlap Excluded)1978 - 2020 (Overlap Excluded)
AAPG
SEG
Current (2001) members onlyCurrent (2001) members onlyExcludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Assumes retirement at 65 and excludes SEG - AAPG overlapAssumes retirement at 65 and excludes SEG - AAPG overlap
2001
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
AAPG + SEG members in U.S. Petroleum Industry 1978-2020
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020
AAPG + SEG Members in U.S. Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Members in U.S. Petroleum Industry1978 - 2020 (Overlap Excluded)1978 - 2020 (Overlap Excluded)
AAPG
SEG
Current (2001) members onlyCurrent (2001) members onlyExcludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Excludes retired, students, academia, mining, environmental, other and >65Assumes retirement at 65 and excludes SEG - AAPG overlapAssumes retirement at 65 and excludes SEG - AAPG overlap
2001
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020
Worldwide Oil & Gas Production andWorldwide Oil & Gas Production andAAPG + SEG Members in Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Members in Petroleum Industry1978 - 20201978 - 2020
Worldwide O&G Worldwide O&G Production, MMB/YrProduction, MMB/Yr
Worldwide O&G Worldwide O&G Production, MMB/YrProduction, MMB/Yr
2001
AAPG + SEG AAPG + SEG Members in Members in
Petroleum IndustryPetroleum Industry
AAPG + SEG AAPG + SEG Members in Members in
Petroleum IndustryPetroleum Industry
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
0
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15000
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25000
30000
35000
40000
•c
U.S. Oil & Gas Production andU.S. Oil & Gas Production andAAPG + SEG Members in Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Members in Petroleum Industry1978 - 20201978 - 2020
U.S. O&G U.S. O&G Production, MMB/YrProduction, MMB/Yr
U.S. O&G U.S. O&G Production, MMB/YrProduction, MMB/Yr
2001
AAPG + SEG AAPG + SEG Members in Members in
Petroleum IndustryPetroleum Industry
AAPG + SEG AAPG + SEG Members in Members in
Petroleum IndustryPetroleum Industry
78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020
Worldwide O&G Production perWorldwide O&G Production perAAPG + SEG Member in Worldwide Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Member in Worldwide Petroleum Industry1978 - 20201978 - 2020
Assumes improvements in technology yield 1 - 2% increase in production/memberAssumes improvements in technology yield 1 - 2% increase in production/member
2001
2% / Yr2% / YrIncreaseIncrease
1% / Yr Increase1% / Yr Increase
MM
BO
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ear/
Mem
ber
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Mem
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DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
0.00
0.10
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78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020
2001
U.S. O&G Production perU.S. O&G Production perAAPG + SEG Member in U.S. Petroleum IndustryAAPG + SEG Member in U.S. Petroleum Industry1978 - 20201978 - 2020
Assumes improvements in technology yield 1 - 2% increase in production/memberAssumes improvements in technology yield 1 - 2% increase in production/member
2% / Yr Increase2% / Yr Increase
1% / Yr Increase1% / Yr Increase
MM
BO
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ear/
Mem
ber
MM
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ear/
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ber
Prod/MemberProd/Member
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0
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78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020
If 25% of worldwide geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of If 25% of worldwide geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of AAPG or SEG, gap is 4 times larger than shownAAPG or SEG, gap is 4 times larger than shown
2001
Worldwide Petroleum Geoscientist DemandWorldwide Petroleum Geoscientist DemandBased on AAPG + SEG Membership OnlyBased on AAPG + SEG Membership Only
Worldwide O&G Worldwide O&G Production, MMB/YrProduction, MMB/Yr
Worldwide O&G Worldwide O&G Production, MMB/YrProduction, MMB/Yr
GeoscientistsGeoscientistsNeeded at 2%Needed at 2%
Geoscientists Geoscientists Needed at 1%Needed at 1%
Geoscientists AvailableGeoscientists Available GAPGAP
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
0
10000
20000
30000
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78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020
If 25% of worldwide geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of If 25% of worldwide geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of AAPG or SEG, gap is 4 times larger than shownAAPG or SEG, gap is 4 times larger than shown
2001
Worldwide Petroleum Geoscientist DemandWorldwide Petroleum Geoscientist DemandBased on AAPG + SEG Membership OnlyBased on AAPG + SEG Membership Only
Worldwide O&G Worldwide O&G Production, MMB/YrProduction, MMB/Yr
Worldwide O&G Worldwide O&G Production, MMB/YrProduction, MMB/Yr
GeoscientistsGeoscientistsNeeded at 2%Needed at 2%
Geoscientists Geoscientists Needed at 1%Needed at 1%
Geoscientists AvailableGeoscientists Available GAPGAP
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
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30000
35000
40000
78 1980 82 84 86 88 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 2010 12 14 16 18 2020
If 2/3 of U.S. geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of AAPG If 2/3 of U.S. geoscientists in petroleum industry are members of AAPG or SEG, gap is 50% larger than shownor SEG, gap is 50% larger than shown
2001
U.S. Petroleum Geoscientist DemandU.S. Petroleum Geoscientist DemandBased on AAPG + SEG Membership OnlyBased on AAPG + SEG Membership Only
U.S. O&G U.S. O&G Production, MMB/YrProduction, MMB/Yr
U.S. O&G U.S. O&G Production, MMB/YrProduction, MMB/Yr
GeoscientistsGeoscientistsNeeded at 2%Needed at 2%
Geoscientists Geoscientists Needed at 1%Needed at 1%
Geoscientists AvailableGeoscientists Available
GAPGAP
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
Will the Gap Be Filled?Will the Gap Be Filled?
• Assumes all graduates work on U.S. production, i.e., none work on non-U.S.Assumes all graduates work on U.S. production, i.e., none work on non-U.S.
• ““Gap 1%” assumes technology improvement of 1% per yearGap 1%” assumes technology improvement of 1% per year
• Gap numbers assume AAPG + SEG members are 2/3 of petroleum geoscientists Gap numbers assume AAPG + SEG members are 2/3 of petroleum geoscientists in U.S.in U.S.
• Assume 2000 level of 4000 U.S. geoscience degrees of which 1250 are MS & Assume 2000 level of 4000 U.S. geoscience degrees of which 1250 are MS & PhD. Percentage entering petroleum industry are for 1999PhD. Percentage entering petroleum industry are for 1999
• K&C percentage includes Canada and did not use same categories as AGI studyK&C percentage includes Canada and did not use same categories as AGI studySources: NSF, AGI (2000), Katz & Claudy (2000)Sources: NSF, AGI (2000), Katz & Claudy (2000)
• U.S. Geoscience Graduates Compared to Geoscientists Needed in U.S. Petroleum IndustryU.S. Geoscience Graduates Compared to Geoscientists Needed in U.S. Petroleum Industry
GeoscientistGeoscientistGap/YearGap/Year Graduates Entering Petroleum IndustryGraduates Entering Petroleum Industry
BS + MS + PhDBS + MS + PhD MS + PhDMS + PhD
@7.6% (AGI)@7.6% (AGI) @14.4% (AGI)@14.4% (AGI) @ 23.8% (K&C)@ 23.8% (K&C)
300300 180180 300300
1%1% 2%2%
420420 210210
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
Will There Be Jobs?Will There Be Jobs?
• Median age of AAPG and SEG members is in the 46-50 group. Median age of AAPG and SEG members is in the 46-50 group. As the older half reaches retirement, the need for replacements As the older half reaches retirement, the need for replacements will increase.will increase.
• World oil and gas production will equal or exceed today’s level World oil and gas production will equal or exceed today’s level for the next 40 - 60 years. Thousands of geoscientists will be for the next 40 - 60 years. Thousands of geoscientists will be needed to discover and recover these reserves.needed to discover and recover these reserves.
• U.S. oil and gas production will decline slowly for the next U.S. oil and gas production will decline slowly for the next 20 - 40 years and will require a continuing U.S. geoscience work 20 - 40 years and will require a continuing U.S. geoscience work force larger than that remaining after the coming retirements.force larger than that remaining after the coming retirements.
• Even with geoscience technology continuing to improve at the Even with geoscience technology continuing to improve at the rate of the last ten years, 200 - 400 new geoscientists per year rate of the last ten years, 200 - 400 new geoscientists per year will be required for the U.S. petroleum industry.will be required for the U.S. petroleum industry.
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
Will There Be Jobs?Will There Be Jobs?
• Additional new geoscientists will be required in the U.S. Additional new geoscientists will be required in the U.S. working on non-U.S. areas and in other countries working for working on non-U.S. areas and in other countries working for American companiesAmerican companies
• Although the number of petroleum geoscientists worldwide is Although the number of petroleum geoscientists worldwide is unknown, a conservative estimate is that 2000 - 3500 new unknown, a conservative estimate is that 2000 - 3500 new geoscientists per year will be required in the petroleum geoscientists per year will be required in the petroleum industry (including the U.S.)industry (including the U.S.)
• The requirement for petroleum geoscientists will last at least as The requirement for petroleum geoscientists will last at least as long as a career.long as a career.
YES!YES!
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
Edwards 2001YEAR
Estimates of 21st CenturyEstimates of 21st CenturyWorld Energy SuppliesWorld Energy Supplies
Petroleum Petroleum GeoscientistGeoscientist
Career OpportunitiesCareer Opportunities
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
Edwards 2001
Estimates of 21st CenturyEstimates of 21st CenturyUnited States Energy SuppliesUnited States Energy Supplies
PetroleumPetroleumGeoscientistGeoscientist
CareerCareerOpportunitiesOpportunities
DWL 2002/AAPGDWL 2002/AAPG
Many assumptions are necessary, among which are:Many assumptions are necessary, among which are:
• Retirement at age 65Retirement at age 65
• Technology improvement at same rate as last ten yearsTechnology improvement at same rate as last ten years
• Production forecastProduction forecast
• In U.S., two-thirds of petroleum geoscientists are AAPG or In U.S., two-thirds of petroleum geoscientists are AAPG or SEG membersSEG members
AssumptionsAssumptions