The future in high resolution af Preben Mejer
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Transcript of The future in high resolution af Preben Mejer
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Discovery Driven
Innovation
– users, tech, context
INNOVATION
FORRETNING
Rentabilitet
Marketing
Finansiering
Organisation
TEKNOLOGI
Teknisk
videnskab
Naturvidenskab
Udvikling
Anvendelighed
BRUGERBEHOV
Ønskelighed
Psykologi
Antropologi
Design
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Det store perspektiv: Smart Computing
Hver ny cyklus: ny tech, ratio til GDP stiger, 8 år senere ”fordøjelse” Mainframes 1960-1976, automatisere rutine transaktioner PC’s 1976-1992, computere til folket Networked computing 1992-2008 internet revolutionen 2010-2020 Smart computing, pervasive mobility, location aware i real-time
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Smart Computing Data i alt, fra alt, overalt
• Sensorer, RFID, NFC ..
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Smart Computing Data i alt, fra alt, overalt
• Sensorer, RFID, NFC ..
Sammenhæng i systemer, data i skyen, nye forretningsmodeller
• Real Time Reality Mining
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Smart Computing Sammenhæng i systemer, data i skyen, nye forretningsmodeller
• Real Time Reality Mining
• Fra OnLine til Onsite – instant
discovery
San Francisco will become the first major city to use sensors in the road to alter meter prices
Nudging people to park in less congested areas
Smartphone apps will display vacant spaces
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Smart Computing Data i alt, fra alt, overalt
• Sensorer, RFID, NFC ..
Sammenhæng i systemer, data i skyen, nye forretningsmodeller
• Real Time Reality Mining
Anywhere computing
• Pervasive Mobilty
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Smart Computing
Anywhere computing
• Pervasive Mobility
Post PC æraen
• Forecast 2011, Gartner
• 488m Smartphones Fra 2014 mere
end 50 pct af total mobil
• 385m PC’s
• 58m Media Tablets
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Smart Computing Opbrud i værdikæden Alt ligger I skyen
From device centric to service centric
Nye forretningsmodeller – service i stedet for køb
Cloud baserede XaaS er strategisk vigtigere og forretningsmæssigt mere attraktivt end HW da cloud er ongoing – for life
Fra Wintel over iOS/Android til Personal Cloud – den nye slagmark
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The PC is dying - Post PC era Personal Computing lives on
The PC is dying
• at least the 1978 gas guzzling x86 and Wintel is
ARM and other efficient architectures will take over
• Chips aimed at mobile
OS migrate towards mobile
• Win 8 UI related to Win mobile 7.
• Mac and IOS merge in 2016
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Fra online til OnSite
Vi forventer svar på stedet !!
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Enhederne og os Multiple devices
177m US online, 105m own 2+ devices
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Enhederne - Nye materialer Printede OLED skærme
Skærme, tynde som et lag maling
Slutningen af årtiet
Kulstof nano rør – fantastiske ledende egenskaber
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Interaktion Tap is the new click
Freeform – Kinect
Electrovibration
• Skaber fornemmelse af
vibration og friktion,
klæbrig, bumpy, tekstur
Slutningen af årtiet
Styring ved tankens kraft
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Enhederne i en ”Post PC” æra Formaterne i fremtiden
• Small – MID
• Smartphone
• Slimbook / eller tablet
• Large-format display
• Outdoor/public display
High calorie – lean forward
Low calorie – lean back
Producenter vil søge at integrere med cloud
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Morphing Screens PC, tablet, mobil grænserne udviskes
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Smart Computing Opbrud i værdikæden Alt ligger I skyen
From device centric to service centric
Nye forretningsmodeller – service i stedet for køb
Cloud baserede XaaS er strategisk vigtigere og forretningsmæssigt mere attraktivt end HW da cloud er ongoing – for life
Fra Wintel over iOS/Android til Personal Cloud – den nye slagmark
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Apple 330m
Microsoft
201b
158b
HP 48b
Nokia 22b
Motorola
11b
IBM 188b Cisco 82b
Samsung 120b
Google køber Motorola – patenter og access
Microsoft ? Nokia og HTC
HP exit – hvem køber HP PC biz – Samsung?
Hvem køber WebOS – HTC?
Den store iPad konkurrent bliver …. ?
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Personal Cloud Alle enheder integrerer til min Personal Cloud
• Organiserer og gemmer
personlige og arbejds-data,
dokumenter, media og
kommunikation
• Kan tilgås fra en bred vifte af
enheder
• Pga kompleksitet og
datamængde, livslangt forhold ?
• Apple, Microsoft, Google
• HW mindre væsentlig, men med
“fordele” og short cuts • Android med Google+, Flickr.
• Microsoft med Bing og Facebook.
• Apple med Twitter
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Enhederne i en Smart Computing æra
Low calorie – lean back
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Ambient devices Low calorie information displays – easy to relate to
Use scenarios:
Convenience and safeguards
• Automating dull, repetive tasks like
vacuum cleaning or avoid domestic
disasters, like putting metal in the
microwave
Better communications
• Freeing you from the PC, ambient
devices
Getting more organized and staying informed
Humanizing technology
• Forrester
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NFC, Share, Discover, Pay, Ticket
2014, NFC based payments acct for 1/3 of 1.13b usd worldwide mobile transactions IEmarket research est
50pct of all smartphones NFC enabled in 2014 Google
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Bilen, printeren, firmafrugtkurven med budget
Med udsigt til et finere og mere granuleret NFC baseret betalingssystem kan man forestille sig
Enheder får et budget
• Din bil har sit eget budget når betalingsringen
kommer
• Printeren har et budget – for dit forbrug
• Frugtkurven giver bonus i kantinen
• Dit køleskab tæller op og ned på kalorier og
økonomi
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Den digital overfrakke
Foursquare, GoWalla, Stickybits
Shopkicks signal hardware triggers check-ins
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Det intelligente hjem
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Det intelligente hjem - fra 1888
Showcase – kommende teknologi
Grøn uden afsavn – halver strømforbruget, uden bøvl og uden islandske sweatere, din fryser kigger på klokken
Dematerilization – slut med DVD’er, CD’er, .. Aviser, ”Beam me up Scotty” videokonf hjemme fra i høj kvalitet
Care anywhere - tryghed, sikkerhed, wellness – huset kender dig, låser hoveddøren op og slår alarmen fra når du nærmer dig - eller åbner for VVS manden, ”spiller filmen igen”, checker fryseren, badeværelset leverer wellness info
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Det intelligente hjem - fra 1888 Status oktober 2011
Showcase – kommende teknologi
Grøn uden afsavn – installeres nu, forventning uændret, halvering af strøm- forbrug. PC’er pensioneres, IT forenkles, belysning LED, intelligent styring af strømslugere
• Hvis reduktion 50pct, så resten solceller
Dematerilization – Musik OK, video er TDC IP tv baseret, aviser er på vej på iPads
• Abonnementsmodeller på iPads et problem
Care anywhere – Låse, alarmer og video OK
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Android@home Android device hub Tungsten to bridge wireless devices with Android phones/tablets/tv’s/?
Low power (900Mhz?)mech protocol similar to ZigBee, but able to carry audio and low res video. Up to 500 devices 50m apart
Protocol will be free, developed with LED co LSGC
Arduino based open source developer platform
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Android talking DLNA provide protocols on appliance side, leaving client software and devices to inegrate as they chose – LAN needed
UPNP device to device, no network needed, broader range of features
Android@home provide unified client and protocol
Android open accessory support – makes it possible for anything to integrate to Android, if app needed you are automatically directed to Android Market
USB support available, Bluetooth support will be announced
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Everything is Getting Smarter… Well Almost
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Household Savings Up to 30%
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GreenWave Reality Company Confidential
The New Design – My Home
GreenWave Reality Company Confidential
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GreenWave Reality Company Confidential
Home Energy Portal
GreenWave Reality Company Confidential
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2 grader Natsænkning om dagen – away from home funktion, og ferie ditto
2 graders sænkning når jeg ikke er der – eller om natten.
Besparelser på 6-15 pct per grad i ressourceforbrug til opvarming i regulerede rum
For husstanden mulig total besparelse 17-40 pct på varmeregningen (familie og single) Fraunhofer
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Madspild
I Tyskland fordærves fødevarer for 7 mia kroner om året
Overflødige indkøb Bosch/Siemens
30 pct of our food is thrown away The Guardian
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Self-tracking Quantter, a web site where you can track your daily activities using Twitter
MoodScope, web based app for measuring, tracking, sharing your mood
Withings Wifi Bodyscale, digital wireless body fat monitor and scale
Philips DirectLife, set of activity programs
A nightshirt to monitor sleep
• NYX devices, embedded with fabric
electronics, monitor breathing patterns
• Chip in pocket process data to determine REM, light, deep sleep
• Launch 2012, 100usd
Wearable stress sensor
• Measuring skin conductance to and thus stress level
• Used for tailoring treatments of autistic children, people
with post traumatic stress disorders and drug addicts
• Q Sensor from Affectiva
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Arbejdspladsen The Anywhere Enterprise
Domicilets død?
Multiperson activities
Cloud workspaces
Roam, Atlanta
• Members live in 10km radius
• Corporate employees (IBM), feelance
entrepreneurs, small business
The Hat Factory, San Francisco
• The Hat Factory is a coworking space located
in San Francisco's Dogpatch
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Devices Corporate goes mobile
By 2015, half of the devices on corporate networks will be mobile – Gartner
Mobile business apps flourish at IBM, Google
Google has created an internal mobile app store
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Devices
Most individuals will carry smartphone, knowledge workers also a tablet/lightweight laptop
Will be robust compute devices able to work without network
Devices will “dock” wirelessly with stationary computers at home/work obtaining
• Additional graphics power, compute muscle
• Easy integration into local systems and peripherals
• Extended displays and projectors • Microsoft Craig Mundie / Forrester
Personal Computing Scenario 2016
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Personal Computing Scenario 2016
Sensing
Detailed awareness of context, situation, location and user status
2016 devices will be able to read emotions, identify owners, detect and classify nearby individuals and their devices and owners vital signs
Will be able to respond to voice and gestures Microsoft Craig Mundie / Forrester
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From the desktop to the room
Orchestration of information flows via personal cloud service
Information input or changed on one device is synced to all other
A richer and more immersive experience
A lot more displays, on surfaces and on the walls
Using speech, gesture and touch in a more integrated way
Graphical interfaces will not disappear, but computers may present themselves in a personified way Microsoft Craig Mundie / Forrester
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Real Time Reality Mining The emerging sensor web
From model based targeting to Real time reality mining of information shadow of people, goods and objects
From cookies to real world tracking. Merging together web and data of individuals life streams. From microblogging to geo positional / motional data
Where next: Path intelligence app, guiding in shopping center, based on cell phone data also used to optimize shop layout. Citysense app.
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Real Time Occupant Feedback
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Smart Office Building Interoperability of building information systems
Optimization of system set points using energy simulation
Demand Response Technologies and “smart grid” integration
Real Time Occupant Feedback
The raw data of how many people are occupying a space in real-time will allow the precise alignment of occupancy and energy use, and create new metrics for space planning
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© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Presentation_ID 45
The Building Information Network Providing Opportunity with One Network
```
Interactive Media
Digital Signage
Wireless
Tenant Services
High Speed Internet
Unified
Communications
IP Telephony
Building Systems
HVAC Sensors
Fire Control
Elevators
Lighting
Energy Management
Video Security
Maintenance
Management
24/7 Monitoring
`
Monitoring
`
Control
Submit
Dashboards
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© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Presentation_ID 46
Typical Results
Typical floor in San Jose Traditional Cisco Connected Workplace
Usable Area 49,000 sq. ft. 49,000 sq. ft.
Work Space 70% individual 30% individual
30% collaborative 70% collaborative
Use Pattern Traditional, Assigned Flexible, Group Assigned
Design Capacity 300 (fixed) 440 (nominal)
Enclosed Meeting Spaces 16 72
Usable Area / Capacity* 163 sq. ft. 111 sq. ft.
Chargeback per Employee $5,162 per year $2,596 per year
* Excludes specialty spaces, labs,
etc
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© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Presentation_ID 47
recreation audio privacy
workstation den
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© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 48
Social
Child Care Centre Collaboration Areas Cafeteria
Environmental
Above LEED Standards:
25% above for lighting energy
27% above for water
consumption
31% above for cooling energy
Enhanced air quality by 30%
Economic
Annual Payback of:
OpEx savings of ~15%
Employee productivity of +9%
Energy efficiency of +30%
The Banyan Building: Built for Sustainability
Total Savings: 1005 MWh
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© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential Presentation_ID 49
Smart Work Center (SWC) offers a flexible and user-centric work space with enhanced communication technologies and a community inclusive service setting, designed to improve employee collaboration and productivity.
Smart Work Center
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Proximity NFC
• Parring af devices, overførsel af data,
betjening
Mobil via Wifi, Bluetooth eller mobilnet
• ”her er jeg” tænd, sluk, åbne, lukke
Hus/hjem/lokaler ved at du er gået, hvor mange er der i bygningen/lokalet
Varme, lys, dørlåse, alarmer
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Konklusion Smart Computing
• Data i alt, fra alt, overalt - Sensorer, RFID, NFC
• Sammenhæng i systemerne - Realtime Reality Mining
• Smartphone som remote control, databærer, position, transaktion
Det intelligente hjem
• Android@home eller Greenwave Reality, en standard til enhver
lejlighed, sub-Zigbee, Jennet, Android / åbne platforme
• Belysning med chipset i soklen, NXP
Arbejdspladsen
• Real-time Reality Mining, smart office building
• Ved hvor mange og hvem der er i bygningen
• Cisco, Banyan, 15pct OPEX besparelse, 30pct bedre på energi,
9pct bedre medarbejder effektivitet. MEN Smart Work Center..
• Proximity styring, NFC og mobil