The Future Delivery of Housing Steve Normington Director of Economy Confident Places Scrutiny...

The Future Delivery of Housing

Steve NormingtonDirector of Economy

Confident Places Scrutiny Committee

Confident Place, Confident People.

National policy context

• Nationally, housing delivery has dropped from the peak in 2007/08, continuing low levels.

• Affordability and access to the market continues to be problematic.

• New housing and planning policy – NPPF, New Homes Bonus aims to encourage greater delivery.

• Financial support – HelptoBuy, Affordable Homes Programme, Self financing of Housing Revenue Account

• Welfare reform – impact on social sector


Local policy context

• Wigan Core Strategy now adopted • Housing requirement of 15,000 to 2026• 25% affordable housing requirement• SHLAA 2013 update• Housing Strategy priorities

– Increasing housing delivery – Welfare reform – Private rented sector – Connecting housing with care


Wigan’s Market Context

• Average property price in Wigan is £132,700• Continued low levels of sales transactions• Prices below GM, NW and national average• Above average owner occupation rates (68%)• Significant growth in private rented sector, 148%

increase in period 2001-11• Above average proportion of semi-detached

(46%), very few flats/apartments (9%)• Low numbers of empty homes


Demographic trends

• Wigan’s population was 317,800 (Census 2011) - an increase of 16,300 (5.6%) from 2001

• 1 in 6 people are aged 65 or above• Average household size is reducing and average age

increasing• More people living alone • More people living longer with long term health

conditions• Forecasts for 2021:

– Population to grow by 6%– Population aged 65+ to grow by 24%– Household growth of 8%, 11,000 additional households


Population forecast to 2021


Affordable Housing NeedsBedroom Requirement

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1 2 3 4 5 or more

No of bedrooms

Appl

ican

ts Transfer

Waiting list

• 3,300 on council waiting list, 1,600 requesting a transfer• 62% require one bedroom, 24% two and 10% three

Applicants by houshold type

13%

49%

24%

10%4%

single

couple

2 bed family

3 bed family

4+ family


Affordable housing needs

• Overall increase in need – estimated shortfall in delivery of 358 units per year

• Hidden need in the Private Rented Sector – 33% of applicants

• Smaller households – singles and couples 62% of applicants

• Ageing population – 24% aged 60 or over• Specialist accommodation • Need for a more diverse housing offer to

address these needs.


Affordable housing trajectory

• Planning to deliver 689 new affordable homes over 5 yrs • 90% committed as rental, need to increase delivery of

affordable home ownership• Focus on working with private developers to provide

access to the market – shared equity

New affordable housing delivery 2013 -17

0

50

100

150

200

250

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Year

Un

its Rent

Sale


Future affordability

• Forecast increase in house prices / rents • Forecast increase in wages • Economic performance• Living costs / inflation • Interest rates • Supply and type• Housing policy and investment• A number of scenarios could apply!


New housing delivery

• New build delivery has decreased from a peak in 2007/08

• Housebuilders generally building large detached houses

• Very few smaller homes, apartments and bungalows

• Lack of diversity in housing offer

• Large proportion of affordable homes (24% of new homes in 2012/13)


Net housing completions

Net completions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13


Housing trajectory

• Delivery anticipated to increase as large schemes come forward, including Northleigh and the Broad Locations

Housing trajectory

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2011

/12

2012

/13

2013

/14

2014

/15

2015

/16

2016

/17

2017

/18

2018

/19

2019

/20

2020

/21

2021

/22

2022

/23

2023

/24

2024

/25

2025

/26

Year of the Core Strategy plan period

Num

ber

of d

wel

lings

Estimated housing delivery

Core Strategy annual averagetarget 1,050 dwellings (gross)

Source: Wigan Core Strategy


Housing land supply• 5.19 year supply

(2013-18)

• 16.62 year supply (2013-28)

• Over 80% of land supply in the east-west core

• Source: SHLAA 2013 update


North Leigh

• Key Strategic Site

• Outline permission for mixed use development

• 1,800 homes

• New road infrastructure


South of Hindley

• Broad location for new development

• 2,000 homes


• Links to Greenheart

• Outline planning application in 2014


Landgate, Bryn• Broad location for new

development

• Approx 300 homes


• Links to Greenheart

• Outline planning application in 2014


East of Atherton


• Approx 600 homes

• Proximity to Atherton Station, Cutacre and M61


Garrett Hall, Astley


• Approx. 600 homes

• Outline permission (subject to s106)

• Proximity to Leigh Guided Busway and A580


Westwood Park, Wigan

• Pending Outline application

• 430 homes

• Associated retail and employment development

• Council ownership

• Strategic location


Standish

• 1,000 homes

• Early delivery

• Greenfield sites


Golborne and Lowton

• 1,000 homes

• Early delivery

• Greenfield sites


Wigan SHMA 2014

• SHMA 2014 in preparation

• Different policy and market context

• Analysis of demographic, economic and housing market signals

• Identify breakdown of house type, tenure and size needed

• Our ability to meet these needs through future supply

Thank you for your timeand attention.

Questions and Answers

The Future Delivery of Housing Steve Normington Director of Economy Confident Places Scrutiny...

Documents

Transcript of The Future Delivery of Housing Steve Normington Director of Economy Confident Places Scrutiny...