The EU and the International Cooperation on Climate Change Prof. Oberthür 011008.pdf · The EU and...

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1 01 October 2008

Sebastian Oberthür

The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

The EU and the InternationalCooperation on Climate Change

Autumn Lecture Series 2008

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Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008:The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

Content

1. Milestones of International Climate Policy

2. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)

3. Kyoto Protocol

4. EU Leadership on International Climate Policy I

5. Towards a “Copenhagen Agreement”?

6. EU Leadership on International Climate Policy II

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1. Milestones of Int’l Climate Policy

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,established 1988)

• 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)

• 1997 Kyoto Protocol

• 2001 Marrakech Accords (implementing provisions forKyoto Protocol)

• 2005 entry into force of Kyoto Protocol (without the USand Australia)

• 2007 Bali Roadmap

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2. UNFCCC (1)

• Objective (Art. 2): stabilization of GHG concentrationsat level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenicinterference with the climate system (translates intoglobal GHG emission reduction of at least 50% by 2050,more afterwards)

• Principles (Art. 3), in particular: CBDR+RC• Comprehensive approach: all GHGs, all sources and

sinks• General commitments (reporting and review, plans,

policies and measures, financing)

• ...but no specific targets

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2. UNFCCC (2)

• Categories of actors: Parties• Developed/industrialized countries (Annex I)

• OECD (Annex II)• Countries with economies in transition (EITs)

• Developing countries (non-Annex I)• Many sub-categories (esp. Art. 4.8, 4.9)

• Categories of actors: non-Parties• Secretariat• IGOs (incl. IPCC, GEF)• NGOs (environmental, business, research, etc.)

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2. UNFCCC (3)

Institutional Structure

• Conference of the Parties (COP) (Art. 7)

• Subsidiary Bodies for Scientific and TechnologicalAdvice (SBSTA) and for Implementation (SBI) (Art. 9and 10)

• Secretariat (Art. 8)

• Financial Mechanism: Global Environment Facility(GEF)

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2. UNFCCC (4)

Assessment

Weak commitments

Objective and principles as basis for further elaboration

Platform and institutional structure for future development

Framework for creation of obligations

• Regime development possible through• COP• additional Protocol(s)• Convention amendments

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3. Kyoto Protocol: reduction targets

• - 5% for all industrialized countries - differentiatedtargets for individual countries

• Base year: 1990 (with flexibility for countries witheconomies in transition)

• Commitment period 2008-2012

• Basket of GHGs (CO2, methane, N2O, HFCs, PFCs,SF6)

• Accounting of sinks (reforestation, deforestation,forest management et al.)

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3. KP: market mechanisms

• JI• Projects that reduce emissions or increase sinks in other

developed countries to gain emission credits (ERUs)

• Clean Development Mechanism• Projects that reduce emissions or increase sinks in developing

countries to gain emission credits (CERs)• Support for sustainable development in developing countries

• Emissions Trading• Selling and buying emissions (AAUs) between developed

countries

⇒Enhance efficiency (do not reduce overallemissions)

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The Kyoto Mechanisms

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3. KP: further areas

• Reporting and Review

• Compliance

• Financial assistance

• Technology Transfer

• Adaptation

• Capacity Building

• Impact of response measures

• ...

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3. KP: institutional framework

• Based on the Convention: Secretariat, SubsidiaryBodies, “Conference of the Parties serving as themeeting of the Parties” (COP/MOP), FinancialMechanism (GEF)

• Executive Board of the CDM

• JI Supervisory Committee

• Compliance Committee (Facilitative Branch,Enforcement Branch)

• Adaptation Fund Board

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3. KP: assessment

• First step is done, but current reductioncommitments are insufficient (global emissionreduction of at least 50% by 2050 required + furtherreduction afterwards)

• Solid and flexible institutional structure to build on(including emissions trading, CDM, JI, reporting) -(currently) without credible alternative

• Increasing (functional and political) differentiationand complexity of governance system (differentGHGs, sinks, reporting, market mechanisms,compliance, adaptation, etc.)

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4. EU leadership I (1)

• UNFCCC negotiations: Pushing for stabilization targetfor industrialized countries by 2000

• Kyoto negotiations: Pushing for 15% emission reductionof industrialized countries by 2010 (7.5% by 2005)

• Kyoto Protocol: Strongest target (see table)

• Internal “burden-sharing agreement” (see table)

• But: little implementing measures (failed CO2/energytax, voluntary agreements, )

⇒“Rhetorical leadership” in the 1990s

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4. EU leadership I: Kyoto targets

Iceland+10%

Australia+8%

Norway+1%

New Zealand, Russian Federation, UkraineStabilisation

Croatia-5%

Canada, Hungary, Japan, Poland-6%

USA-7%

EC and 15 member states + BUL, CZE, EST,LAT, LIE, LTU, MON, ROM, SVK, SLO and SUI

-8%

PartyTarget

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4. EU leadership I: burden sharing

Reduction by2008-2012

+13.0%

+25.0%

-21.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-21.0%

-7.5%

-13.0%

Reduction by2008-2012

-8.0%

-12.5%

+4.0%

+15.0%

+27.0%

-6.0%

-28.0%

-6.5%

Ireland

EU-Total

UKGreece

SwedenGermany

SpainFrance

PortugalFinland

NetherlandsDenmark

LuxembourgBelgium

ItalyAustria

Member state(continued)

Member state

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• US exit + Marrakech Accords of 2001: defending“environmental integrity” (market mechanisms,compliance, sinks) + saving the Kyoto Protocol

• Ratification campaign (entry into force in 2005):convincing Russia

• Domestically: European Climate Change Programme(ECCP) of 2000, including emissions tradingdirective (see table)

⇒Addressing the credibility gap (but limited impacton emissions)

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4. EU leadership I: EU climate policies

515-615

60-200

40-55

ca. 70

35-40

100-125

ca. 40

75-80

Reduction Potentialby 2012 (Mt CO2 eq)

All existing EU policies andmeasures

Total

Other policies and measuresUntil 2007

Directive on Energy End UseEfficiency and Energy Services

2006

Emissions Trading Directive2003/04

Directive on Promotion of Bio-fuel2003

Renewable Energy Directive2001

Landfill Directive1999

Voluntary agreements with carmanufacturers

1998/99

PolicyYear

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• Challenges to the EU’s international “actorness”:• Mixed/shared competence• Unity• Representation• Effective negotiation/diplomacy

• Responses:• Role of EU Presidency (coordination and representation)• EU Troika (representation)• Evolution of internal coordination mechanisms (Council)

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• Two negotiating tracks:• Kyoto Protocol (Article 3.9 and Article 9)• UNFCCC (“Bali Roadmap”)

• Schedule:• Poznan (December 2008)• 4-5 negotiating sessions in 2009• Deadline for submission of text for legal instrument

6 months prior to Copenhagen• Copenhagen (December 2009)

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• Agenda of negotiations:

• Mitigation commitments of industrialized countries

• Mitigation action in (more advanced) developing countries

• Further development of market mechanisms (“global carbonmarkets“)

• Mechanisms for transfer of finances and technology

• Adaptation (including finance)

• Emissions from international transport (aviation and maritimetransport)

• Avoid/minimize deforestation

• Impacts of response measures (etc.)

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⇒Many issues, many parties - a major challengefor coming to an agreement

⇒The international framework is not likely toget less complex...

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6. EU leadership II (1)

• Bali Roadmap and beyond: pushing for“Copenhagen Agreement” (post-2012)

• European Council: unilateral commitment tocut GHG emissions by 20% by 2020 + increaseshare of renewables to 20% by 2020 (+ 20%energy efficiency improvement by 2020)

• Challenges to EU as an international actor:ensuring EU unity + effective climate diplomacy(outreach and strategy)

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6. EU leadership II (2)

• The climate/energy package (proposed byEuropean Commission):• ETS reform• Effort sharing• Renewables Directive• Also: CO2 and cars, energy efficiency, aviation, maritime

transport?

• Closing the credibility gap?

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UK

Sweden

Spain

Portugal

Netherlands

Luxembourg

Italy

Ireland

Greece

Germany

France

Finland

Denmark

Belgium

Austria

EU-15

Source: EEA

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Lecture Series Programme

The Prospects for a New International Agreementon Climate Change

19 Nov.

The EU, Climate Change and the Promotion ofRenewable Energy

12 Nov.

The EU and Adaptation to Climate Change: Internaland External Dimensions

5 Nov.

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme: Internal and External Dimensions

29 Oct.

Mitigating CO2 Emissions from Cars22 Oct.

EU Climate Policies: State and Perspectives15 Oct.

The EU, IPCC and the Science of Climate Change:The 2 degrees C Target

8 Oct.

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Lecture Series Programme (2)

The EU Climate/Energy Package:Internal and External Implications

(see www.ies.be for exact date)

KEYNOTELECTURE:Jan. 2009

The EU and the Future of International ClimateProtection

17 Dec.

The EU, Russia and Climate Change10 Dec.

Transatlantic Politics of Climate Change3 Dec.

The EU as an Actor in International Climate Policy:External Competence, Internal Procedure andActual Practice

26 Nov.

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Principal sources

• Axelrod, Regina et al. (eds.) (2005) The Global Environment• Bodansky, Daniel (1993), The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change: A Commentary, Yale Journal of International Law 18, 451-558.• Chasek, Pamela (ed.) (2000) The Global Environment in the Twenty-First Century• Grubb, Michael et al. (1999), The Kyoto Protocol. A Guide and Assessment, London.• Kiss, Alxeandre & Shelton, Dinah (2006) International Environmental Law• Oberthür, Sebastian & Ott, Hermann (1999) The Kyoto Protocol. International

Climate Policy for the 21st Century• Oberthür, Sebatian & Claire Roche Kelly (2008) EU Leadership on International

Climate Policy: Achievements and Challenges, The International Spectator 43: 3,35-50.

• Peeters, M. and K. Deketelaere (eds) (2006), EU Climate Change Policy. TheChallenge of New Regulatory Initiatives, Cheltenham.

• Yamin, Farhana & Depledge, Joanna (2004) The International Climate ChangeRegime

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