The EcoSenseWeb integrated model First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark

[email protected] 6th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model

The EcoSenseWeb integrated model

First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark

Volker KlotzIER Universität Stuttgart


Outline

1. The Impact Pathway Approach: basic principle of EcoSenseWeb2. The EcoSense Model3. Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling

i. Regional scale (European scale) modellingii. Local scale modellingiii. Hemispheric scale modelling

4. Additional impacts, additional EcoSenseWeb-Modules5. Results


Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1Differences of Physical

Impacts

Transport andChemical

Transformation

Pollutant / Noise Emission

Calculation is made twice: with and

without project!


Background Concentration of PPM2.5 [µg/m3]

Additional Emission of 1000 t PPM2.5 in

Egypt


Delta Conc. of PPM2.5 [µg/m3] – 1000 t in Egypt


Population Distribution


Quantification of Impacts and Costs

relation between pressure and impact

Concentration Response Function (CRF):

Example: Additional Years of Life Lost

= 6.5 · 10-5 · PPM2.5 · Population

Number of additional Years of Life Lost [YOLL]

in Egypt due to 1000 ton emission of PPM2.5 = 748

in the Northern Hemisphere = 53

in Western Europe < 0.5


YOLL Years of Life Lost due to 1000 t PPM2.5


Impact Pathway ApproachDifferences of Physical

Impacts

Transport andChemical

Transformation

MonetaryValuation

Pollutant/Noise Emission

Calculation is made twice: with and

without project!


Quantification of Impacts and Costs

Exposure Response Function:

Additional Years of Life Lost

= 6.5 · 10-5 · Sulfate · Population

Quantified number of additional Years of Life Lost due

to one year operation : 748 YOLL

Monetary value

40,000 Euro2005 per Year of Life Lost

748 YOLL x 40000 €/YOLL = Damage costs per year:

29.2 Million Euro2005


Outline EcoSense

● EcoSense is designed for carrying out impact assessmentsi. with a consistent standard (ExternE Impact Pathway approach - CRF,

monetary values)ii. with little data requirements (dispersion models, meteorology, receptor

data)iii. for all European countries

(incl. extension).

● Calculations can be performed on three spatial scales:i. Local scaleii. Regional scaleiii. North hemispheric scale

● Only the emission data of the source is needed to perform calculations

Coverage of EcoSenseWeb


Regional atmospheric dispersion modelling

● Regional modelling with a parameterized EMEP/MSC-West Eulerian dispersion model from MET.NO Source-Receptor (SR)-matrices for EU25 SR-matrix: concentration increment in each grid cell per unit of emission

● Intention: estimation of impacts and damages on European scale

● More appropriate dispersion models for country scale may exist but EcoSense is designed to make calculations for all European countries.

● Ongoing improvement: Coupling of the Eulerian dispersion modell Polyphemus with EcoSenseWeb detailed calculations feasable.


Example regional model: Delta concentraion of Sulfate due to the emission of 1 t SO2 in South-Germany


Local atmospheric dispersion modelling

Example ISC ST (Gaussian) model results for:● Athens area● Stack height: 50m● Stack Temp: 332 °K● Emission rate: 2.5g/s● Exit velocity: 1.7m/s● Stack diameter: 2m

-1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000-1000

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PLO T FILE O F H IG H 2N D H IG H 3-HR VALUES

ISCST Model Application for Athens, 1997

SO2ì g/m3

m etres

me

tre

s

SO2 annual averageIntention: estimation of impacts and damages close to the emission source

(50 km around the source)

Local meteorology needed to perform ISC ST EcoSenseWeb includes a meteorological data generator


Local Modelling: Meteorological data generator

● Calculates for a selected point in Europe the specific meteorological data

● Input for the local ISC-ST model

Example: Athens


Northern hemispheric atmospheric dispersion model

sec. particles (ug/m3)

Example: Conc. increment due to NOx Emission in N.AmericaIntention: rough estimation of

impacts and damages in the northern hemisphere

Hemispheric modelling with EMEP/MSC-West Eulerian dispersion model from MET.NO Source-Receptor (SR)-matrices for Emissions in Europe, North America, Far East, Middle East, and Russia.

SR-Matrices for Emissions in North African countries.


Further impacts considered in EcoSenseWeb

● Loss of biodiversityi. due to landuse changeii. due to acidification and eutrophication

● Assessment of external costs of GHG emissionsi. Marginal damage costsii. Marginal abatement costs

● Assessment of external costs due to radio nuclide emissions


Aggregated results per SO2 & PPM2.5 – all sectors; 2010; average meteorology

0

2000

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LY

AT

LN

O FI

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PT

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BG BA

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UA

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HR

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EU

27

BL

SP

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HU IT CY

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EG AT

FR

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ro p

ro t

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2]

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ED AL

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EU

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PL

CZ

HU

FR

UK IT AT

LU

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DE

EG

BE

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[Eu

ro p

er T

on

PP

M2.

5]


All Secors - (also seperately for high or low releases available), NEEDS Core CRF[External costs Euro per ton]

HH Eu27 average 2010

HH Eu27 average 2020

HH 2010 min Eu

HH 2010 max Eu

BioDiv Eu27 average 2010

BioDiv Eu27 average 2020

HH Emission from Eu - ext. costs in the Northern Hemisphre outside Eu

NH3 6,923 4,259 1,316 15,963 3,266 3,295 2NMVOC 496 223 -261 1,274 -67 -48 259NOX 4,220 5,061 699 10,840 903 868 98PPMco 1,439 1,500 179 3,035 0 0 2PPM25 17,948 17,787 4,155 34,502 0 0 116SO2 4,315 4,591 1,479 7,638 177 170 205

Aggregated results - comparison

HH ... Human health

BioDiv ... Damages on biodiversity due to acidification and eutrophication

2010, 2020 ... Different reference emission scenarios


Contact / Links:

● Methodology: http:\\www.ExternE.info● EcoSenseWeb: http:\\ecosenseweb.ier.uni-stuttgart.de● Contact person: [email protected]


Annex....


Impacts included (I)

Impact Cat. Pollutant / Burden Effects Human Health mortality

PM25, PM10 SO2, O3

Reduction in life expectancy due to short and long time exposure cidents

Human Health

PM25, PM10, O3, SO2 Respiratory hospital admissions

morbidity PM25, PM10, O3 Restricted activity days PM25, PM10, CO Congestive heart failure Benzene, BaP, 1,3-

butad.,radioact. Cancer risk (non-fatal)

PM25, PM10 Cerebrovascular hospital admissions, cases of chronic bronchitis, cases of chronic cough in children, cough in asthmatics, lower respiratory symptoms

O3 Asthma attacks, symptom days Mercury Loss of IQ of children


Impacts included (II)

Impact Category

Pollutant / Burden Effects

Building Material

SO2, Acid deposition

Combustion particles

Ageing of galvanised steel, limestone, mortar, sand-stone, paint, rendering, and zinc for utilitarian buildings

Soiling of buildings

Crops SO2 Yield change for wheat, barley, rye, oats, potato, sugar beet

O3 Yield change for wheat, barley, rye, oats, potato, rice, tobacco, sunflower seed

Acid deposition Increased need for liming

N, S Fertilising effects

Global Warming

CO2, CH4, N2O World-wide effects on mortality, morbidity, coastal impacts, agriculture, energy demand, and economic impacts due to temperature change and sea level rise

Ecosystems SO2, NOx, NH3 Eutrophication, Acidification

Land Use Change

‘PDF’ of species

The EcoSenseWeb integrated model First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark

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