The economy, business and politics · 61 % Raise Minimum Wage to the level of the Living Wage (£10...

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The economy, business and politics

Michaela Rhode & Charlotte Malton

Wednesday 9th May 2018

Whose side are the public on?

Labour lost the spin-war last week, but closer analysis suggests politics is still in deadlock

2BritainThinks | Private and Confidential

Labour and Business

“It is not clear, on this showing, what the path for a workable parliamentary majority for either of

them is.”Stephen Bush, New Statesmen

We wanted to understand how business and the economy fit into the electoral landscape


Labour and Business

3 x Focus groups in Chipping Barnet & Southampton Itchen

25th & 26th April 2018

‘Swing’ voters – none voted Labour in GE2017, all C1–C2 social grade

Online survey

2nd – 3rd May

Nationally representative sample of 2,044 GB adults aged 18+

Take-outs for business


Labour and Business

Yet the public want business to succeed – and right now they are seeing evidence that business is under threat

3.

1.

5. There is an opportunity for business to build on the belief that it is crucial to a thriving economy.

Don’t be complacent about your reputation - as consumers, workers and tax payers, the public view businesses with suspicion

4.

Not all 'Business’ is equal: people feel warmer towards small/family businesses compared to big/foreign businesses

2. These reputational negatives make business vulnerable if faced with a manifesto that is not “business friendly”

Take-outs for politicians


Labour and Business

Both parties have strengths, but no-one is truly ‘owning’ the economic argument right now3.

2.

4. Labour has a clear opportunity to build in this area. Its values appeal to people and make its business policies seem attractive on first glance

This agenda matters very much to people. The strength of the economy is something people care about, particularly now as they feel that British business is vulnerable.

5. But the Conservatives have a deeper credibility on economic competency, which means they are currently more trusted than Labour

1. If confrontation arises, politicians shouldn’t assume they will win because they are less trusted than business


1 Business is not always liked, but it is respected

Labour and Business

‘Business’ has an image problem


Labour and Business

Trust business

43%

Source: Edelman Trust Barometer 2018, UK

only figures

As employers…• Low pay

• Zero hour contracts

• ‘Disposable’ employees

As providers of goods and services …

As corporate citizens…• Avoid tax

• High levels of executive

pay

35%Agree that generally

businesses are on my

side as a consumer

“When I think of business I just think of those zero-hour contracts.

It’s disgraceful what some companies are doing.”

Female, 47-65, Barnet

Q2. To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? Base: All respondents (n=2044)

Business is seen as ruthless, cut-throat, and top of the food chain


Labour and Business

“Business would see us as sheep - we have to follow their rules. We’d be known [to them] as ‘sheep-le’.”

Male, 47-65, Southampton

How I see business…. How business sees me….

“It’s a survivor. Out there in the wild. To be successful you have to look after number one.”


This is moderated slightly depending on the size of the business


Labour and Business

• Big business is often associated with ‘the economy’ as a whole: • Seen as vitally important, but distant and

impersonal• Big businesses are often viewed with

suspicion, especially ‘foreign’ multinational businesses

• With small and ‘family’ businesses the relationship feels more personal:• Perceptions of local businesses can act as a

barometer of ‘how well are things going for me and my area’

“You’ve got the fluffy businesses, the local community businesses. Then you’ve got the big, meaner ones.”


‘Everyone’s business: Public attitudes report’, CBI, 2017

But even if people don’t like business, they do take it seriously as the driving force of the economy


Labour and Business

• Business is perceived as an important source of income for the country

• Business growth and profit is regarded as beneficial for the country’s strength and international reputation

• Personal business success is admired, albeit grudgingly at times

“The country has to grow. If we don’t grow we’ll get left behind. It [business success] has a knock on effect all the way through the system.”


“The more business is making profit, the more it is adding to the system. They offer employment.”


Right now many think business isn’t doing so well, and that’s worrying


Labour and Business

58%

Agree that UK businesses are

struggling at the moment

“You’ve got your global companies which are doing fine, but then

you’ve got your smaller family companies which

are struggling.”


“Other people are taking over our businesses.

We’re just selling them off cheaply to foreign

countries.”



The public do make a link between business policy, the economy, and their own lives


Labour and Business

I’ve noticed…• Shops closing on the high street

• People I know struggling to find

work

Makes me worry about…• Businesses leaving the UK

• Brexit

“All the businesses are going abroad and it’s jobs [we’re losing].”


“Business rates should be looked at on the high street. Philip Green is closing his stores because it’s too expensive and he’s a millionaire.”


They want politicians to protect and champion business


Labour and Business

“It’s like the umbrella, the economy. It’s at the top, and then everything underneath is what we care about.”

Female, 18-47, Southampton

VS82% 58%

Agree that the UK Government should do

more to regulate UK business

Agree that the UK Government should do

more to support UK businesses


“Let’s get money in, let’s get the country strong.”


If it comes to a choice, people come down on the side of business


Labour and Business

Businesses are more in touch with the

general public than politicians are

Politicians are more in touch with the

general public than businesses are

I trust businesses more than I trust

politicians

I trust politicians more than I trust

businesses

9%63% 54%

8%

Q.3 Which of the following statements comes closest to your opinion? Base: All respondents (n=2044)


2 For the Conservatives, this should all be good news

Labour and Business

The Conservatives are described in a similar way to business


Labour and Business

This doesn’t make them popular…

“They stay out all night and go prowling and they’ll go wherever it takes.”


• Conservatives are seen as ‘ruthless’ and ‘out for themselves’

• And there is a strong perception that they are ‘elitist’ and ‘for the rich’

But it does mean that they are clearly seen as the best party on the economy


Labour and Business

• Often credited with having rescued the economy from Labour • The values associated with the Conservatives – ambitious, ruthless - are perceived to be more in step

with the conditions needed for business to thrive

“The Conservative’s policies are more practical and realistic if you’re looking at it from the perspective of the UK economy.”

Female, 18-47, Southampton31% 37%

21%

40% 34%

55%

29% 29% 24%

The UK economy Small businesses inthe UK

Large businesses inthe UK

Labour Conservative Neither

Which of the following parties would be the best party for….

Currently they are not maximising their advantage here


Labour and Business

2015 2017 Today

Only 39% of the public can name Phillip

Hammond as Chancellor of the

Exchequer


3 Labour is all the things that business is not, in good ways and bad

Labour and Business

Labour is caring, but not competent


Labour and Business

“They are like a dog- it seems like a good idea at the time but then turns out to be really annoying and a big commitment…”


They are seen to be trying hard…

• Labour are seen as ‘fair’ and genuine in their desire to help people

• But there is concern that in their quest to be liked, they are over-promising

Whilst Labour enjoys a marginal lead with small businesses, it is seen as the less-good option for the economy overall, and a terrible option for ‘big business’


Labour and Business

31%37%

21%

40%34%

55%

29% 29% 24%

The UK economy Small businesses inthe UK

Large businesses inthe UK

Labour Conservative Neither

Which of the following parties would be the best party for….

“They’re frightening. If they came into power they would just spend.”


Q5. If there were a General Election tomorrow, which of the following political parties do you think would be the best party for… Base: All respondents (n=2044)

Thinking about ‘business’ and the ‘economy’ magnifies what concerns

people have, and tends to make them feel more negative about Labour

At first sight, Labour policies are attractive and speak to the issues that matter to people

When tested blind, Labour policies are relatively popular


Labour and Business

55 % Strengthen workers' rights (e.g. banning zero hours contracts, increasing trade union power)

58 % Help small businesses (e.g. with lower corporate tax rate and reform to business rates)

55 % Tax rises on top 5% of earners (those who earn over £70,000 per year)

% of respondents who think each is a good idea (8-10 on 10 point scale)

Q4. The following are all policy ideas that UK political parties have suggested introducing. To what extent do you think each of these policies is a good idea or a bad idea? Please indicate on a sliding scale where 0

= an extremely bad idea and 10 = an extremely good idea. Base: All respondents (n=2044)

61 % Raise Minimum Wage to the level of the Living Wage (£10 an hour by 2020) for all those aged 18+

“That sounds good. It’s the

smaller businesses that need the

most support. They’re just prey to

the bigger businesses.”

Female, Barnet, 47-65

“Probably a good idea. If you look

at the companies on the high

street, Poundland for example, all

their staff are on minimum wage.”

Female, Southampton, 18-47

There is least support for policies which are thought could impede business success


Labour and Business

Q4. The following are all policy ideas that UK political parties have suggested introducing. To what extent do you think each of these policies is a good idea or a bad idea? Please indicate on a sliding scale where 0 = an extremely bad idea and 10 = an extremely good idea. Base: All respondents (n=2044)

“If you’ve made the money and been successful you shouldn’t be penalised for that.”



39 %Work towards a 20:1 pay ratio between highest and lowest paid workers, and introduce fines for companies that exceed this

26 % Raise corporation tax from the current rate of 19% to 26% by 2020-21

“I think we shouldn’t concentrate on squeezing tax out of British companies when there’s massive corporations here like amazon who aren’t paying anything at all.”


Views of renationalization are complicated



• Initial views are positive- driven by low spontaneous awareness of cost implications, optimism about what it will mean for the consumer and nostalgic lens

• But when business rebuttal is tested, concern about the cost has potential to change views

“It sounds like a good idea, but it would be so expensive. Where is the money coming from?’


46 % Bring rail and water industries, and the Post Office, back into Government ownership

When business policies are associated with Labour, there is a noticeable drop in support


Labour and Business

• The immediate reaction is ‘how will they pay for it?’

• Plays into existing preconceptions, and makes them think the policy is less feasible/ more risky

• Prompts concern that Labour is looking to ‘rock the boat’

“Where’s the money coming from? If it’s borrowing then no, we don’t want [these policies]. We already have massive national debt.”


“They sound good on paper, but they need a calculator.”


When business concern about Labour’s policies is shared with voters, it also gives pause for thought


Labour and Business

Business rebuttals prompt people to consider the knock-on impact of policies

• A cautious tone chimes strongly with what the public feel – ‘sounds good on paper but…’

• Rebuttals are most effective when they tap into concerns about losing jobs or businesses moving abroad

“That’s what we’ve all been saying all along.”


“Jeremy Corbyn calls his manifesto ambitious, but businesses will be concerned about what happens when this ambition collides with reality. Individually, policies to renationalise the railways, water and sections of the energy industry, or to abolish tuition fees, may sound popular. But the costs would be staggering, the benefits unclear, and the related tax rises would make the UK a less competitive economy.”

Institute of Directors


4 Conclusions

Labour and Business

Take-outs for business


Labour and Business

Yet the public want business to succeed – and right now they are seeing evidence that business is under threat

3.

1.

5. There is an opportunity for business to build on the belief that it is crucial to a thriving economy.

Don’t be complacent about your reputation - as consumers, workers and tax payers, the public view businesses with suspicion

4.

Not all 'Business’ is equal: people feel warmer towards small/family businesses compared to big/foreign businesses

2. These reputational negatives make business vulnerable if faced with a manifesto that is not “business friendly”

Take-outs for politicians


Labour and Business

Both parties have strengths, but no-one is truly ‘owning’ the economic argument right now3.

2.

4. Labour has a clear opportunity to build in this area. Its values appeal to people and make its business policies seem attractive on first glance

This agenda matters very much to people. The strength of the economy is something people care about, particularly now as they feel that British business is vulnerable.

5. But the Conservatives have a deeper credibility on economic competency, which means they are currently more trusted than Labour

1. If confrontation arises, politicians shouldn’t assume they will win because they are less trusted than business

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential

britainthinks.com

For more information:

Deborah Mattinson+44 (0)207 [email protected]

BritainThinksSomerset House StrandLondon WC2R 1LA

The economy, business and politics · 61 % Raise Minimum Wage to the level of the Living Wage (£10...

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