The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in ... · The Table 2 and Figure 2 below...
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The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom
Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
March 2017
The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
www.sqw.co.uk
Contents
Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1
Economic value of the bicycle industry ....................................................................... 1
The economic value of cycling .................................................................................... 7
Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 13
Contact: Michael Frearson Tel: 020 7391 4140 email: [email protected]
Approved by: Michael Frearson Date: 22 March 2017
Director
The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
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Introduction
In 2016 the Bicycle Association of Great Britain (BAGB) commissioned SQW to analyse data
on the economic impact of the bicycle industry and cycling in the UK. BAGB members
provided insight from their experience as bicycle importers, distributers and retailers, and
assisted in the interpretation of HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) bicycle import data.
SQW built an economic impact model using these data, applying standard ratios for gross
value added (GVA) and employment, using assumptions generated by the London School
of Economics (LSE) in 2011. SQW also examined patterns and trends in bicycle ownership
and use in order to provide economic impact data for the World Health Organisation
(WHO) Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for cycling.
Economic value of the bicycle industry
The BAGB estimates that bicycle retail sales account for 50% of turnover in the bicycle
industry, with the remainder derived from the sale of bicycle parts, accessories and
clothing. They also estimate 95% of bicycles sold to users in the UK are imported, with
the remainder manufactured in the UK. SQW estimates for the economic value of the
bicycle industry are based on secondary analysis available HMRC data for bicycle imports
and derived retail sales data excluding e-bikes, bicycles manufactured in the UK, and
bicycle parts, accessories and clothing. They should therefore be regarded as conservative
estimates.
How many bicycles are imported?
Table 1 and Figure 1 below extract import unit data for ‘BICYCLES, NOT MOTORISED, WITH
BALL BEARINGS’ (TTCN 87120030) from HMRC UK INTRASTAT and ALLSTAT data provided
by Business & Trade Statistics Ltd. These data have been aggregated to provide quarterly
and annual time series showing the volume of UK bicycle imports since 2010.
Table 1: Imported bicycles (units)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
2010 596,461 1,008,193 1,150,913 1,154,239 3,909,806
2011 536,364 925,835 941,338 985,975 3,389,512
2012 600,722 862,344 1,055,922 986,445 3,505,433
2013 588,324 833,512 961,435 993,234 3,376,505
2014 688,177 887,023 959,767 1,095,899 3,630,866
2015 616,069 978,284 1,045,568 878,595 3,518,516
2016 529,218 774,019 745,763 719,043 2,768,043
Source: HMRC UK INTRASTAT and ALLSTAT data
BAGB members provided insight from their experience as bicycle importers, distributers and retailers
The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
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Figure 1: Imported bicycles (units)
Source: HMRC UK INTRASTAT and ALLSTAT data
The data indicate fewer bicycles were imported in 2016 (2.8 million units) than 2010 (3.9
million units), with fewer bicycles imported in each quarter throughout 2016 compared
with the same quarters in the previous six years.
How many e-bikes are imported?
The Table 2 and Figure 2 below extract unit import data for ‘CYCLES, WITH AN AUXILIARY
ELECTRIC MOTOR WITH A CONTINUOUS RATED POWER <= 250 W’ (TTCN 87119010) from
HMRC UK INTRASTAT and ALLSTAT data provided by Business & Trade Statistics Ltd (2012
is the first year in which TTCN 87119010 data were reported).
Table 2: Imported e-bikes (units)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
2012 8647 5014 6871 18784 39316
2013 3914 6826 7501 14744 32985
2014 7284 10647 21006 26705 65642
2015 8421 11049 38207 117320 174997
2016 42364 21392 39169 30230 133155
Source: HMRC UK INTRASTAT and ALLSTAT data
Figure 2: Imported e-bikes (units)
Source: HMRC UK INTRASTAT and ALLSTAT data
0
200000
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1400000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Total bicycle imports (units)
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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Total e-bike imports (units)
Fewer bicycles were imported in each quarter throughout 2016 compared with the same quarters in previous years
The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
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The data indicate total e-bike imports in 2015 of almost 175,000 units exceeded total
imports for the previous three years combined. The data suggest 2015 saw dramatic
growth in the second half of the year before imports fell away in the first half of 2016,
recovering in 2016 Q3 before dropping away again in 2016 Q4 to reach just over 133,000
units for 2016. The BAGB regards the peaks in Q4 of 2015 and Q1 of 2016 as anomalous,
and considers the period saw steady growth accelerating from 2014 to 2016.
What is the value of bicycle sales?
The value of bicycle sales can be calculated using the HMRC bicycle import unit data
presented above in Table 1 and Figure 1, and average bicycle costs for different bicycle
user groups generated by the LSE (2011) shown in Table 3, with prices adjusted for inflation
using the HM Treasury Gross Domestic Product deflator. The results presented in Table 4
assume the proportions of different user types and adjusted average retail prices remain
constant throughout the period, and 90% of all imported bicycles were sold to bicycle users
within six months.1
Table 3: Bicycle user groups and bicycle retail prices
User types Occasional
cyclist Regular
cyclist Frequent
cyclist 2015 average
retail prices
Family 30% 15% 2% £235
Recreational user 70% 37% 5% £270
Commuter 0% 40% 43% £334
Enthusiast 0% 8% 50% £1,295
Source: LSE (2011), with 2015 retail prices adjusted for inflation
In 2015, almost half (46%) of the total value of bicycle sales was generated by enthusiast
cyclists, followed by recreational users (26%), commuters (19%) and family users (9%).
Unsurprisingly, in the same year almost half of the annual value of bicycle sales was
generated by frequent cyclists (47%, people who cycle at least once a week), followed by
regular cyclists (28%, people who cycle at least once a month) and occasional cyclists (24%,
people who cycle less than this). These values reflect differential average bicycle costs for
different user groups.
Table 4: Bicycle retail sales (value), by user group
User type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Family users £141,077,302 £141,393,428 £127,245,194 £130,015,902 £132,480,429 £136,989,810 £121,128,387
Recreational users £385,133,822 £385,996,829 £347,372,874 £354,936,764 £361,664,799 £373,975,178 £330,674,303
Commuters £275,836,475 £276,454,569 £248,791,728 £254,209,057 £259,027,739 £267,844,549 £236,832,054
Enthusiasts £684,974,325 £686,509,215 £617,815,124 £631,267,775 £643,233,826 £665,128,277 £588,116,117
Totals £1,487,021,924 £1,490,354,041 £1,341,224,920 £1,370,429,498 £1,396,406,793 £1,443,937,813 £1,276,750,860
Source: SQW analysis of HMRC UK INTRASTAT and ALLSTAT data, LSE (2011), with retail prices adjusted for inflation
1 This assumption has been applied to the data in order to set GVA for the industry within a reasonable timeline, because GVA is not generated until retail sales occur.
Almost half of the total value of bicycle sales was generated by enthusiast cyclists, followed by recreational users
The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
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Figure 3: Bicycle retail sales (value), by user group
Source: SQW analysis of HMRC UK INTRASTAT and ALLSTAT data, LSE (2011), with retail prices adjusted for
inflation
The data indicate higher sales value was generated by enthusiast cyclists relative to other
user groups, and an overall decline of bicycle sales value over time. In 2016, the value of
bicycle sales was less than in any of the previous six years: in 2010 total bicycle sales
amounted to £1.49 billion; by 2016 total bicycle sales amounted to £1.28 billion.
What is the gross value added by bicycle sales?
Gross value added (GVA) provides a monetary value for the amount of goods and services
produced less their cost of production. Estimates for GVA for bicycle sales in the UK have
been calculated by applying a standard turnover to GVA ratio of 29% to bicycle sales values
presented in Table 4. The results are presented in Table 5 and Figure 4 below.
Table 5: Gross value added by the bicycle industry (bicycle sales) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
2010 £112,910,065 £136,366,634 £69,018,068 £116,660,659 £434,955,427
2011 £133,175,165 £133,560,025 £62,064,086 £107,130,798 £435,930,074
2012 £108,924,691 £114,089,756 £69,511,120 £99,784,088 £392,309,654
2013 £122,183,507 £114,144,141 £68,076,514 £96,447,862 £400,852,023
2014 £111,250,168 £114,929,714 £79,630,767 £102,639,760 £408,450,409
2015 £111,057,159 £126,809,350 £71,286,961 £113,199,810 £422,353,280
2016 £120,985,418 £101,664,534 £61,237,204 £89,563,770 £373,450,927
Source: SQW analysis of HMRC UK INTRASTAT and ALLSTAT data, LSE (2011) average bicycle retail price
(adjusted)
£0
£100,000,000
£200,000,000
£300,000,000
£400,000,000
£500,000,000
£600,000,000
£700,000,000
£800,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
To
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Family users Recreational users Commuters Enthusiasts
Higher sales value was generated by enthusiast cyclists relative to other user groups
By 2016, total bicycle sales in the UK amounted to £1.28 billion
The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
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Figure 4: Gross value added by the bicycle industry (bicycle sales)
Source: SQW analysis of HMRC UK INTRASTAT and ALLSTAT data, LSE (2011) average bicycle retail price
(adjusted)
The results follow trends set by bicycle sales values presented in Table 4 and Figure 3
above. In 2016, GVA generated by the bicycle industry was less than at any time in the
previous six years: in 2010 GVA amounted to £435 million; by 2016 GVA amounted to £373
million.
What are labour costs and employment in the bicycle industry?
Total labour costs and employment generated by importing, distributing and selling
bicycles in the UK have been estimated by applying a standard turnover to employment
ratio of 15% to the bicycle sales values presented in Table 4 above, using average
wholesale and retail labour costs derived from the Annual Household Survey of Hours and
Earnings. The results are shown in Table 6 and Figure 5 below.
Table 6: Bicycle industry employment
Total employment costs (2015 prices) Total employment
2010 £226,479,737 14,466
2011 £226,987,233 14,498
2012 £204,274,236 13,047
2013 £208,722,217 13,332
2014 £212,678,669 13,584
2015 £219,917,845 14,047
2016 £194,454,564 12,420
Source: http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0043/00432251.pdf
£0
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£250,000,000
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
To
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Total GVA per annum
Gross value added by the bicycle industry amounted to £373 million in 2016
The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
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Figure 5: Bicycle industry employment
Source: http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0043/00432251.pdf
The data indicate declining employment from almost 15,000 employees in 2011 to just
over 13,000 in 2012, climbing to just over 14,000 in 2015 before falling to just over 12,400
in 2016, the lowest total employment figure for six years.
Summary
Fewer bicycles were imported in 2016 (2.8 million units) than 2010 (3.9 million units),
and fewer bicycles were imported for each quarter in 2016 compared with all previous
years.
By contrast, from a much lower base, e-bike imports in 2015 (175,000 units) exceeded
total imports for 2012, 2013, and 2014 combined, but declined in 2016 to 133,000
units. The BAGB regards the peaks in Q4 of 2015 and Q1 of 2016 as anomalous.
Enthusiast cyclists generated higher bicycle sales relative to other user types based on
higher average bicycle costs. Total bicycle sales revenue in 2010 amounted to £1.49
billion, but by 2016 declined to £1.28 billion, the lowest annual total for seven years.
The GVA for the bicycle industry follows bicycle sales data. In 2010 GVA amounted to
£435 million, but by 2016 GVA declined to £373 million.
Employment importing, distributing and selling bicycles fluctuated from a high of
almost 15,000 employees in 2011 to a low of just over 12,400 employees in 2016, the
lowest annual total for six years.
11,000
11,500
12,000
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14,500
15,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
To
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The data indicate declining employment over the past five years
The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
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The economic value of cycling
Who cycles?
In 2011, the LSE estimated 27% of the adult population (13,000,000 people) cycled.
Subsequent National Travel Survey (NTS) reports indicate little change in this proportion.
In 2015 the adult cycling population aged 18+ can therefore be estimated to be in excess
of 13,860,000.
Who owns or has access to a bicycle?
Bicycle ownership and access remained constant at around 42% of the population
between 2008/10 and 2013/15, with children and young people aged 5-16 the age group
most likely to own or have access to a bicycle. However, bicycle ownership and access for
different age groups changed during this period. The proportion of children and young
people aged 5-16 who owned or had access to a bicycle declined steadily by 4% between
2008/10 and 2013/15, while among older people aged 50-59 bicycle ownership or access
increased by the same proportion. The data are shown in Figure 6 below.
Figure 6: Bicycle ownership or access, by age group
Source: National Travel Survey
Who cycles how far and how often?
Estimates for the number of miles cycled per year are derived by applying NTS distances
cycled to the total adult cycling population segmented by bicycle user groups proposed by
the LSE in 2011. The data indicate that in 2015, almost one billion (990,855,918) miles
were cycled in the UK. Almost three quarters (74%) of these miles were cycled by
commuters and enthusiasts. Unsurprisingly, almost the same proportion (71%) of miles
were cycled by frequent cyclists, followed by regular cyclists (19%) and occasional cyclists
(19%). The data are shown in Table 7 and Figure 7 below.
88
77
45
34
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19
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4651
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73
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4451
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5-10 11-16 17-20 21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
Pe
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Bicycle ownership or access, by age group
2008/10 England 2010/12 England 2013/15 Great Britain
The proportion of children who own or have access to a bicycle has declined steadily since 2008/10
Almost one billion miles were cycled in the UK in 2015
The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
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Table 7: Total miles cycled in 2015, by different user groups
Bicycle user type Distance travelled
per year (miles)
Frequency of use
Distance travelled per year (miles)
Family 38,801,100 Occasional 105,954,981
Recreational user 223,868,528 Regular 184,967,191
Commuter 364,111,362 Frequent 699,933,746
Enthusiast 364,074,927
Total 990,855,918
990,855,918
Source: National Travel Survey NTS0605 and LSE 2011
Figure 7: Proportion of miles cycled by different user groups in 2015
Source: National Travel Survey NTS0605 and LSE 2011
The vast majority of these miles were accumulated over very short trips with low annual
mileage. An average of three miles per trip and 53 miles per person per year were cycled
in 2015, slightly less than in 2014, as shown in Figure 8 below.
Figure 8: Average trip length and annual mileage
Source: National Travel Survey
Family4%
Recreational user22%
Commuter37%
Enthusiast37%
Occasional11%
Regular19%
Frequent70%
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.13.0
43.6
49.5
55.2
49.3
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53.0
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Average trip length (miles) Average distance travelled per year
An average of three miles per trip and 53 miles per person per year were cycled in 2015
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Figure 10 indicates more trips and more miles were cycled in 2015 than in 2010. However, when miles and trips cycled over time are considered by age group, it is
clear that children and young people aged 0-16 cycled less in 2015 while people aged 40 and over cycled more, reflecting bicycle ownership and access data presented
in Figure 6 above.
Figure 9: Average number of trips miles cycled per year, by age group
Source: National Travel Survey
The recent decline in average trip length and annual distances between 2014 and 2015 revealed in Figure 8 and Figure 9 is also reflected in the falling proportion of
adults who cycle frequently (at least once a week) or regularly (at least once a month) in England, as presented in Figure 10 below.
16.4 17.0 14.4 18.1 17.0
15.3 12.6 10.714.4 12.3
16.9 17.3 20.217.5 25.1
23.818.2 21.9
23.222.8
17.1 28.8 19.324.7 20.3
22.0 20.319.3
23.5 22.5
16.921.1
12.1
19.8 17.312.4
13.2
9.6
14.1 17.45.04.3
5.4
7.1 5.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ave
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um
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f tr
ip (
pe
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)
All ages 0-16 17-20 21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
43.6 49.5 55.2 49.3 57.8 53.0
22.3 22.2 22.1 18.526.6 17.4
51.3 43.8 37.9 40.5
64.267.4
53.9 76.156.0 68.6
68.3 76.3
63.859.7 101.1 78.8
100.272.2
68.5
88.475.8 91.8
88.3
86.959.5
57.287.2
53.2
66.7
60.6
25.9
37.2
48.6
32.7
45.4
52.3
10.5
11.5
11.4
9.9
14.9
15.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ave
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All ages 0-16 17-20 21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+
The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
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Figure 10: Adults who cycle regularly or frequently
Source: Active People Survey
Looking more closely at the ages of adults aged 16+ who cycled at least once a month in 2014/15, Figure 11 shows young people aged 16-24 and those aged 35-44 cycled more than other adults, and in every age group more people cycled for recreation than utility purposes.
14.40
14.50
14.60
14.70
14.80
14.90
15.00
15.10
15.20
15.30
15.40
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Proportion of adults who cycle at least once a month
3.90%
4.00%
4.10%
4.20%
4.30%
4.40%
4.50%
4.60%
4.70%
4.80%
4.90%
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Proportion of adults cycling at least once a week
The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
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Figure 11: Adults who cycled at least once a month in 2014-15, by age group
Source: Active People Survey
The average distance cycled per person per day estimated from these figures has been
used in the WHO HEAT model to estimate the total value in health benefits of
£1,056,598,000 in 2015. This compares with £1,807,000,000 in economic benefits derived
from increased physical activity estimated by the University of Leeds in 2015,2 and
represents around 60% of the total economic benefits of cycling reported by the
Department for Transport in 2014, with additional economic benefits derived from
decongestion and other factors.3 Therefore the analysis presented here represents a
conservative estimate of the total economic value of cycling supported by the UK bicycle
industry.
Actual and perceived risks cycling on the road
The recent decline in cycling observed in the data presented above may be attributed in
part to a growing perception that roads too dangerous for cycling. This contrasts with
evidence showing fewer fatalities for cyclists than for motorcyclists and pedestrians, as
presented in Figure 12.
2 Fiona Crawford and Robin Lovelace, The benefits of getting England cycling (University of Leeds, January 2015). 3 Value for Money Assessment for Cycling Grants (Department for Transport, August 2014).
20.1
13.1
10.5
16.7
11.3
7.9
20.3
14.6
8.3
17.3
12.6
7.0
11.7
8.4
4.84.7
3.12.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Any Recreational Utility
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f th
e p
op
ula
tio
n a
ge
d 1
6+
Purpose cycling at least once a month
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Cycling health benefits are valued at £1,056,598,000 in 2015
The economic value of the bicycle industry and cycling in the United Kingdom Report to the Bicycle Association of Great Britain
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Figure 12: Total reported passenger fatalities, by mode
Source: Department for Transport, Reported road accidents and casualties
Yet fear of road danger is increasing, despite declining cyclist fatality rates (deaths per
billion kilometres cycled), as shown in Figure 13 below. In 2015 (the year following the
last release of Public Attitude Statistics), the cyclist fatality rate fell to 19, down from 22
fatalities per billion kilometres cycled in 2013 and 2014
Figure 13: Actual vs perceived risk cycling on the road
Source: DfT Reported Road Accidents and Casualties, Public Attitudes Statistics.
0
50
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
To
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Cyclists Motorcyclists Pedestrians
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24
22 22
61%
59%
61%
64%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
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2011 2012 2013 2014
To
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Actual vs perceived risk cycling on the road
Killed per billion passenger kilometres
Proportion agreeing 'It is too dangerous for me to cycle on the road'
Despite a declining cyclist fatality rates, fear of road danger is increasing
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Summary
Around 27% of the adult population, almost 14 million people in the UK, ride a bicycle.
Less than half (42%) of the total population own or have access to a bicycle. More
than three quarters of children and young people own or have access to a bicycle, but
fewer children and young people have access today than a decade ago.
In 2015, almost one billion miles were cycled in the UK. Almost three quarters (74%)
of these miles were cycled by commuters and enthusiasts. Unsurprisingly, almost the
same proportion (71%) of miles were cycled by frequent cyclists, followed by regular
cyclists (19%) and occasional cyclists (19%).
Young people aged 16-24 and those aged 35-44 cycle more than other people, and in
every age group more people cycle for recreation than utility purposes.
More trips and more miles were cycled in 2015 than in 2010, but children and young
people cycle less today while older people cycle more.
The average distance cycled per person in 2015 generated a total value in health
benefits of £1,056,598,000 according to the WHO HEAT model based on average
distance cycled each year, less than other economic impact estimates including
physical activity and transport benefits.
Media-driven public attitudes towards road danger bear little relationship to evidence
of actual cycling fatalities, but may deter people from cycling.
Conclusion
Like other industries, the bicycle industry contributes to the UK economy by generating
GVA and employment. More than this, the bicycle industry provides the bicycles (and
parts, accessories and clothing) that contribute to the economic impact of cycling. Simply
put, without the bicycle industry importing, distributing and selling bicycles, few bicycles
would be ridden and the economy would benefit little from cycling.
Also like other industries, the bicycle industry faces challenges arising from general market
conditions characterised by slowing consumer demand and overall increases in the cost of
imported goods. With declining cycling levels, this makes more difficult the task of
persuading those who do not own or ride a bicycle that cycling could be for them.
In particular, the bicycle industry faces a present danger with fewer children and young
people owning a bicycle and cycling today than a decade ago. Without securing cycling in
childhood, it will be all the more difficult to persuade this next generation to take up
cycling in later life.
Without the bicycle industry, the UK economy would benefit little from cycling
The bicycle industry faces a present danger with fewer children owning a bicycle and cycling today than a decade ago