The commercial influence of newsbrands
Transcript of The commercial influence of newsbrands
The commercialinfluence ofnewsbrandsSally Dickersonmanaging directorBenchmarketing
#shiftnorth
The ROI studySales return A meta-analysis of 500+ econometric models2011 – 2016
Analysis conducted by Sally Dickerson, managing director
of effectiveness consultancy
The ROI study
Part of the Omnicom Media GroupA graduate in Mathematics from Oxford, Sally joined Mars UK as a market research analyst, later joining their Management Science division. She co-founded The Decision Shop, part of Bates/Cordiant then in 1999 joined the then OMD group and set up ROI (Return on Investment) focused on market mix modelling, which became OMD Metrics, then BrandScience, and is now Annalect Marketing Sciences. In 2016 Sally created a new consultancy business, Benchmarketing, running strategic quantitative consultancy projects using meta analysis. She has also contributed to over 30 IPA advertising effectiveness awards, been an IPA effectiveness award judge, and run marketing effectiveness masterclasses for the Marketing Society and Chartered Institute of Marketing. She was a judge on the inaugural Cannes Creative Effectiveness Lions panel, in 2011 and again in 2013.
3 key questions
1How effective are campaigns that use print newsbrands versus those that do not?
2Do digital newsbrands improve effectiveness? And what impact do print newsbrands have on the effectiveness of other media channels?
3What proportion of the budget should be spent on print newsbrands to deliver optimum total campaign ROI?
The evidence
Print newsbrands boost overall campaign ROI by three times on average
1Digital newsbrands improve the effectiveness of print and print newsbrands make TV twice as effective and online display four times as effective
2 3Spend on print newsbrands should return to 2013 levels, and can be boosted further by use of digital newsbrands
Source: Benchmarketing analysis of 500+ econometric models
Retail
Travel & Transport
Automotive
Finance
Combined services
FMCG
The study analysed six categories
Retail
Combined services
Today we will cover
Automotive
Finance
How has adspend evolved in the last five years?
SMI data provides a representative picture of actual media mix
Actual media spend from booking data provided by 65% of UK agencies
Data across all above the line media
Detailed breakdown of digital spend across display, video and paid search
Breakdown of newsbrand spend across print and digital
Source: SMI (Standard Media Index)
13.7%
2013
11.9%
2014
9.7%
2015
14.4%
2012
15.4%
2011
Across all categories, total newsbrand spend has declined since 2011
Source: Total available categories SMI 2011-2015
50%
0%
Digital channels accounted for a third of media spend in 2015
TV Cinema OOH Radio Magazines Print newsbrands
Online newsbrands
Other digital display
Digital video
Search
43.0%
1.4%
9.4%3.6% 3.4%
7.6%2.1%
11.1%
5.8%
12.6%
9.7%
31.6%
Source: Total available categories SMI 2011-2015
11.4%
2013
9.6%
2014
7.6%
2015
12.5%
2012
13.7%
2011
Across all categories print newsbrand spend has declined since 2011
Source: Total available categories SMI 2011-2015
27.1%
2013
22.3%
2014
16.5%
2015
28.1%
2012
30.1%
2011
In retail, print newsbrands remain the #2 channel despite the decline
Source: Total available categories SMI 2011-2015
9.8%
2013
8.3%
2014
7.7%
2015
10.7%
2012
13.1%
2011
In finance, spend in print newsbrands has declined less sharply
Source: Total available categories SMI 2011-2015
Has the pendulum swung too far?
Our exploration
Advertising x medium and messagePR, Media mentions, Buzz
Pricing vs competitors
Store universe changes
Product/Range changes
Brand awareness/perceptions
Competitor marketing
Competitor routes to market
Technological change
Seasonality
Economic change
Econometrics – identifying and assigning a weight to the ingredients driving sales
Calculating revenue return on investment (RROI)
Base Distribution 1 Distribution 2 Promotions Channel 1Channel 2 Channel 3 Channel 4 Channel 5
Calculating revenue return on investment (RROI)
Spend £mSales £m due to spend
RROI
Channel 1
Channel 2
Channel 3Channel 4
Channel 5Total
£2.5
£0.5
£1.5
£1.0
£0.5
£6.0
£3.0
£0.5
£3.0
£1.5
£0.6
£8.6
1.20
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.20
1.43
A meta analysis of multiple econometric cakes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%£0.0
£0.2
£0.4
£0.6
£0.8
£1.0
£1.2
£1.4
£1.6
R² = 0.955623065086703
Print newsbrands % of total communications spend
Reve
nue
ROI
Defining the relationship between spend and revenue return
Each dot on the graph represents a case inour Results Vault
Here the data suggests as the % of print newsbrands in the mix increases, so does effectiveness
This is an example chart, not real data
Creating tertile groups of cases shows the revenue return for low, medium and high spend levels
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%£0.0£0.2£0.4£0.6£0.8£1.0£1.2£1.4£1.6
% of total communications spend
Reve
nue
ROI
£0.0£0.2£0.4£0.6£0.8£1.0£1.2
Tertiles of % of total communications spendThis is an example chart, not real data
1How effective are campaigns that use print newsbrands versus those that do not?
£9.08
£25.18
£18.82 £18.25
Total campaign
revenue ROI
Low 2-20% Medium 20-31% High 31-100%
Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in retail
No print newsbrand
spend
2015 spend levels16.5%Retail
Print newsbrands boost total campaign ROI by 2.8 times, but the category is failing to spend at optimum levels
Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015
£1.49
£8.47
£6.76
£3.91Total
campaign revenue
ROI
Low 2-5% Medium 7-22% High 22-37%
Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend
No print newsbrand
spend
2015 spend levels7.9%
FinanceAutomotive
Print newsbrands boost overall campaign ROI by up to 5.7 times but advertisers are missing out on large additional revenues by not including newsbrands in the mix
Finance2015 spend levels
7.9%
Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015
Advertising carryover rates measure the time period over which the media will drive a sales response
Determining the ‘adstock’ – or the memory effect of advertising
Adstock greatly influences the total return of a campaign
0
20
40
60
80
100
adstock 80% grps
0
20
40
60
80
100
adstock 30% grps
80% per week is typical of a long term branding message
30% per week is typical of a shorter term promotional message
Print newsbrands go on working for much longer than online in the finance category
391% higher
impact at day 7
0 7 14 21
Online Newspapers
Even in the short-term retail category, print newsbrands add 9% more impact on a weekly basis
0 7 14 21
Online Newspapers
9% higher
impact at day 7
Print newsbrands outperform online for all service categories
Automotive
Finance
Retail
Travel & transport
Combined services
Category Print newsbrands Online
69%
54%
47%
47%
48%
60%
11%
43%
39%
37%
2Do digital newsbrands improve effectiveness? And what impact do print newsbrands have on the effectiveness of other media channels?
Adding digital to print improves print revenue ROI by up to five times in retail
x5
Print newsbrands make TV spend work twice as hard
£6.49
£12.22
£5.72
£10.82
TV revenue
ROI
Low 2-10% Medium 10-12% High 12-18%
Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in combined services
No print newsbrand
spend
Combined services
Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015. Combined services includes: Finance, Retail, Telecoms, Travel & Leisure, Media, Government/Social/Political, Other Services(Online & Offline)
Print newsbrands boost online display and video by up to four times£12.46
£20.96£17.42
£55.98
Online display
revenue ROI
No print newsbrand
spend
Low 2-10% Medium 10-12%
Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in combined services
High 12-18%
Combined services
Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015. Combined services includes: Finance, Retail, Telecoms, Travel & Leisure, Media, Government/Social/Political, Other Services(Online & Offline)
£4.84
£12.10£13.33
£8.28Online
display revenue
ROI
Low 2-10% Medium 10-12% High 12-18%
Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in finance
No print newsbrand
spend
2015 spend levels7.9%
FinanceAutomotive
Print newsbrands also boost online RROIs by an average of 2.3 times in finance
Finance
Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015
£4.02
£40.45
£11.34
£55.82
Radio revenue
ROI
Low 2-7% Medium 7-22% High 22-37%
Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in combined services
No print newsbrand
spend
2015 spend levels7.9%
FinanceAutomotive
Combined services: print newsbrands boost radio revenue by up to 10 times
FinanceCombined services
Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015. Combined services includes: Finance, Retail, Telecoms, Travel & Leisure, Media, Government/Social/Political, Other Services(Online & Offline)
£1.70
£3.21
£0.45
£3.15
Radio revenue
ROI
Low 2-7% Medium 7-22% High 22-37%
Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in finance
No print newsbrand
spend
2015 spend levels7.9%
Finance
Print newsbrands boost radio revenue by up to 1.9 times in finance
Finance
Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015
3What proportion of the budget should be spent on print newsbrands to deliver optimum total campaign ROI?
The data from the meta analysis allows us to build response curves for each channel, by which we calculate the optimum split for any given budget
Revenue £m
Media investment £m800
900Online Display
TV
Online Search
Newspapers
VOD
Outdoor
Magazines
Radio
TV Sponsorship
Cinema
Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015
0%
13%
22%24%
26% 26% 26%27% 27%
26%24%
22% 21% 21% 20%19%
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Total annual campaign budget £m
Print newsbrands should form a significant proportion of the mix for all budget levels in supermarket retailRecommended % spend on print newsbrands to optimise total campaign ROI
Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015
Retail – Supermarkets £40m 16.5% 27%
Category Typical spend p.a. £m
Print newsbrandspend % 2015
Print newsbrand % spend for maximum campaign effect
Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015
0% 0% 0%
8%
15%
19%21%
23% 24%25%
24% 23% 23% 23% 23%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15total annual campaign budget £m
Above annual budgets of £5m+ print newsbrands should form a significant proportion of the mix in non-grocery retailRecommended % spend on print newsbrands to optimise total campaign ROI
11%
62%
51%
34%26%
21%17% 15% 13% 12%
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Print newsbrands should form a significant proportion of the mix for finance brands
Total annual campaign budget £m
Recommended % spend on print newsbrands to optimise total campaign ROI
Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015
Finance Typical spend p.a. £m
£25m(higher spends £50m)
Print newsbrandspend % 2015
8%
Print newsbrand % spend for maximum campaign effect21%13% for higher spends
Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015
2016 2017
11.4%
2013
9.6%
2014
7.6%
2015
12.5%
2012
13.7%
2011
The pendulum has swung too far for print newsbrands – and advertisers are missing out
Source: SMI (Standard Media Index)
The evidence
Print newsbrands boost overall campaign ROI by three times on average
1Print newsbrands make TV twice as effective and online display four times as effective
2 3Spend on print newsbrands should return to 2013 levels, and can be boosted further by use of digital newsbrands
47