US Army Corps of Engineers

BUILDING STRONG®

The CASM for Evaluating Changes in Fish

and Shellfish Communities from the Delta

Management Study

Diversion Panel Presentation – Oct 27, 2015

Dynamic Solutions, LLC

CASM• Bioenergetics-based growth in an aquatic food web

• Producers: dB/Bdt = Photosynthesis – Photorespiration –Dark Respiration – Sinking – Mortality – Grazing

• Consumers: dB/Bdt = [{Consumption - (Egest+Excrete+SDA) –Respiration – Mortality – Predation} + flux ]*hmod

• Consumption and respiration depend on size, temperature; Consumption on prey and predator biomasses

• Growth modified by salinity, proportion of vegetation

Weight (g wwt) Salinity, % VegetationTemperature

1.0

0.0

Cmax

Resp(d-1)

f(T)

1.0

0.0

hmod

POC

POC

Phytoplnktn

Periphyton

Zooplnktn

Infauna

Mollusks

Bactplktn

Bacteria

Benthic InvertebratesSmall shrimpSmall crabs

Brown &

White shrimpBlue crab

Small FishAnchovy

SilversidesMenhaden

MulletsKillifish Predators

SeatroutDrums

SheepsheadFlounderCatfish

Bass

MRDM CASM

Oysters

MRDMInputs:Salinity

TemperatureChlorophyll

Water DepthEAV: WaterOyster reef

EAV

DOCN,P, S

Biological Data for the CASM• Biomass (g/m2) for initialization and calibration from LDWF

seines and trawls, NMFS drop samplers

• Lengths, catch-per-unit effort from LDWF and NMFS data

• Bioenergetic parameters, L-W, diets from literature

• Benthic infauna data from NMFS (Minello and Rozas)

• Stage-specific mortality, growth, reproduction, migration for fluxes between life stages and in and out of estuaries to complete life cycle (Baker et al. 2014; EPRI 2005; Pattillo et al. 1997)

• Habitat preferences/tolerances for temperature, salinity, vegetation for life stages, benthic infauna from LDWF and NMFS data, 2017 Master Plan HSI models, literature

MRDM CASM with LDWF and NMFS Stations

NMFS Drop

16’ Trawl

Gill Net

50’ Seine

Trammel Net

BaratariaCSA 3

Breton CSA 2

Pontchartrain CSA 1

Mean Monthly Model Species Composition in LDWF Seines from 1995-2010

CSA 1 (94% of total catch) CSA 3 (92% of total catch)CSA 2 (94% of total catch)

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po

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f C

atch

Months

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Bay Anchovy

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White ShrimpSt Mullet

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Silversides

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Killi

Sm. Crabs

Caridean Shrimp

Caridean Sh

B. Shrimp

B. Shrimp

B. Crab

Bay Anchovy

Bay Anchovy

Atl. CroakerAtl. Croaker

Brown Shrimp Early YOY Biomass Estimates from Data for Barataria Basin

Mean over years

** Biomass from LDWF Seines & NMFS Drops

Red Drum Early YOY Biomass Estimates from Data for Barataria Basin

Mean over years

** Biomass from LDWF Seines & NMFS Drops

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Water column POC X X X X X X X XSediment/Detritus X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XPhytoplankton X X X X X X X XPeriphyton X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XZooplankton X X X X X X X XBenthic Infauna X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XMollusks (bivalves, snails added) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XCaridean shrimp X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XSmall crabs X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XOyster spat X X X X X X XSeed/sack oysters X XSmall jv blue crab X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XLg jv/sub blue crab X X X X X X X X X X X X X XSmall jv brown shrimp X X X X X X X X X X XLg jv/sub brown shrimp X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XSmall jv white shrimp X X X X X X X X X XLg jv/sub white shrimp X X X X X X X X X X X X X X XSmall jv red drum X XSm jv Atlantic croaker X X X X X X X XSm jv gulf menhaden X X X X X X X X X X X XLg jv/adult gulf menhaden X X XJuv striped mullet X X X X X X X X X XAdult striped mullet X XJuv largemouth bass XAdult largemouth bass XSub/adult sheepshead

Small juv bay anchovy X X X X X X X X X X X XLg jv/adult bay anchovy X X X X X X X X X XSunfishes X X X XBlue catfish XThreadfin shad X X XGizzard shad X X XSm Pinfish X XSea catfish XSm juv spot X X XKillifish X X X X X XSilversides X X X X X X

Early YOY Brown Shrimp (≤ 65 mm TL)

YOY Brown Shrimp (> 65 mm TL) Early YOY Red Drum (≤ 60 mm TL)

YOY Red Drum (61-350 mm TL)

Age-1+ Red Drum (> 350 mm TL)

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Early YOY blue crab X X XLg jv/sub blue crab X XEarly YOY brown shrimp X X X XLg jv/sub brown shrimp X X

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Species-Specific Habitat Modifier Functions from Data

Salinity (ppt) % Vegetation

0 010 20 30 40 25 50 75 100

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.0

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.0

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.0

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0.25

0.50

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eYOYYOY

Brown Shrimp

Red Drum

** Rozas and Minello 2002

Environmental Data for the CASM

• Existing conditions from 1995-2010 for model calibration and validation– Daily salinity (ppt), temperature (○C) , and Chl a (µg/l)

from 2012 Eco-Morphology model (Meselhe et al. 2013)

– 2012 Vegetation:Water map (Couvillion et al. 2013)

– Used for CASM calibration and validation

• MRDM Project Alternative Scenarios for 50 years– Daily salinity, temperature, Chl a from DELFT-3D with D-

WAQ (Meselhe et al., in prep)

– Vegetation:Water maps at 10 year intervals from Delft-3D with LA-VEG (Meselhe et al., Duke-Sylvester et al.)

– Used as CASM inputs to evaluate key species responses

CASM Polygons with Example Salinity generated from Delft-3D

Delft data provided by Meselhe et al. (WIG)

Daily Environmental Inputs for Barataria Polygons

CASM Polygons with Vegetation and Open Water Map

Land:Water data provided by Couvillion (USGS)

CASM Calibration and Validation

• Calibrate predicted biomasses to averaged observed biomass data from 1995-2010

• Adjust daily mortality rates, life stage fluxes, diet parameters, and temperature parameters

• Validate spatial distribution of species within basins related to conditions, habitat, food web

• Not shown but important to show model is a realistic and accurate representation of system

Evaluating Species Responses to MRDM Project Scenarios

• Delft-3D generated daily salinity, temperature, Chl a, Vegetation:Water inputs to 49 CASM polygons over 50 years

• Seven MRDM diversion scenarios including FWOP, single diversions, all four diversions at low and aggressive operations

• Report key species responses from TY0 for first 10 years, 20 years and at 50 years– Brown and white shrimp, blue crab, red drum,

seatrout, menhaden, largemouth bass, oysters– System-wide, basins (CSA 1, 2, 3), and sub-basins

(upper, mid, lower regions in basin)

Future WithoutProject

All FourDiversionsAggressiveOperation

Gulf Menhaden Biomass: Change from Initial Conditions

Year 10 Year 20 Year 50

Future WithoutProject

All FourDiversionsAggressiveOperation

Red Drum Biomass: Change from Initial Conditions

Year 10 Year 20 Year 50

Future WithoutProject

All FourDiversionsAggressiveOperation

Brown Shrimp Biomass: Change from Initial Conditions

Year 10 Year 20 Year 50

Brown Shrimp:System-Wide Responses Relative to TY 0

** Minimum threshold response +/-10% = No response due to variation and uncertainty

** Red more than 10% reduction; Green more than 10% increase from TY 0

FWOP ~ LBS ~ LBAR ~ MBS ~ All-A over 50 years

MBAR ~ All-L reduced ~ 18% early but gone by TY 20 and 50

MBARD FWOP MBSD LBSD LBARD ALL-L ALL-A

Years PR1 PR2 PR3 PR4 PR5 PR6 PR7

1 -16.01 -4.18 -12.48 -5.71 -5.58 -15.59 0.32

3 -18.37 -5.61 -14.15 -7.26 -7.78 -18.11 3.77

5 -18.32 -6.05 -14.09 -7.31 -7.95 -18.71 3.38

10 -8.92 6.12 -1.60 2.35 0.01 -17.16 13.85

20 -5.11 7.87 1.82 6.18 5.50 -7.91 16.36

50 -0.87 24.64 23.98 20.95 16.26 -4.46 14.21

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se (

%)

in B

row

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mas

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om

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0

Years

+/- 10%

*** Supporting results for evaluating CSA 3for lower biomasses in PR1 & PR 6

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*** Relative reductions largest in upperand mid basins of PR1 & PR6 (PR7)of CSA 3

Monthly Brown Shrimp Biomass in YR 1 CSA3 mid

PR 7PR 6FWOPPR 5PR 4PR 1PR 3

PR 7PR 6FWOPPR 5PR 4PR 1PR 3

Earl

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Evaluating Species Responses to MRDM Project Scenarios

• Key species responses from initial conditions often less than +/-10%

• Responses vary by species and are complex

– Salinity, temperature, Chl a, Vegetation:Water, food web interactions differentially effect species and life stages within basins and by diversion scenarios

• Agency scientists working with modeling teams to interpret species responses and identify information gaps