Th A i l lTh A i l lThe Agricultural The Agricultural ReviewReview

Crop 2004/2005Crop 2004/2005bybyyy

Derek W. LittleDerek W. LittleSugar Industry Research InstituteSugar Industry Research InstituteSugar Industry Research InstituteSugar Industry Research Institute

IntroductionIntroductionIntroductionIntroductionTheThe upturnupturn inin canecane andand sugarsugar productionproduction recordedrecordedinin 20042004 waswas reversedreversed inin 20052005 followingfollowing thethe damagedamagegg ggcausedcaused toto canecane cultivationcultivation byby HurricaneHurricane IvanIvan andandseveresevere droughtdrought conditionsconditions whichwhich affectedaffected yieldsyields..

SomeSome agronomicagronomic practicespractices werewere veryvery deficientdeficient ononsomesome farmsfarms andand estatesestates andand thisthis alsoalso contributedcontributedtoto thethe fallingfalling productivityproductivity..

SugarSugar canecane productionproduction fellfell byby 618618,,000000 tonnestonnes((3131%%)) whilewhile sugarsugar productionproduction declineddeclined byby 5959,,297297(( )) gg pp yy ,,tonnestonnes oror 3232%%..

SomeSome 33,,650650 haha ((1212%%)) ofof thethe productionproduction estimatesestimatesSomeSome 33,,650650 haha ((1212%%)) ofof thethe productionproduction estimatesestimateswerewere notnot reapedreaped..

Impact of Hurricane IvanImpact of Hurricane IvanImpact of Hurricane IvanImpact of Hurricane IvanHurricaneHurricane IvanIvan causedcaused severesevere damagedamage toto canecane cultivationcultivation andandthisthis variedvaried fromfrom locationlocation toto locationlocation withwith canecane varietyvariety andandthisthis variedvaried fromfrom locationlocation toto location,location, withwith canecane varietyvariety andandstagestage ofof growthgrowth atat thethe timetime ofof passagepassage..

PhysicalPhysical damagedamage fromfrom strongstrong windswinds rangedranged fromfrom leafleafys cays ca da ageda age oo s o gs o g dsds a geda ged oo eaeashredding,shredding, stalkstalk breakagebreakage andand stoolstool topplingtoppling overover..

CanesCanes lessless thanthan 33 monthsmonths werewere notnot severelyseverely affectedaffected exceptexceptwherewhere floodingflooding existedexistedwherewhere floodingflooding existedexisted..

ImpactImpact waswas mostmost severesevere onon canecane rangingranging fromfrom 44 –– 77 monthsmonthsoldold asas aa resultresult ofof leafleaf shredding,shredding, apicalapical damagedamage andand apparentapparentg,g, pp gg ppppstressstress relatedrelated damagedamage toto rootroot systems,systems, allall affectingaffecting growthgrowth..SomeSome 5050%% ofof thethe canecane populationpopulation waswas atat thatthat stagestage ofofgrowthgrowth..

Impact of Hurricane Ivan Impact of Hurricane Ivan i di dcontinuedcontinued

DroughtDroughtDroughtDroughtRainfallRainfall waswas veryvery variablevariable acrossacross thethe industryindustry andandyy yywaswas generallygenerally belowbelow thethe longlong termterm averagesaverages forforOctoberOctober andand NovemberNovember..

CumulativeCumulative rainfallrainfall forfor thethe periodperiod DecemberDecember 20042004toto MarchMarch 20052005 waswas justjust aboveabove 5252%% ofof thethe 3030yearyear meanmeanyearyear meanmean..

RainfallRainfall forfor FebruaryFebruary andand MarchMarch waswas onlyonly 1111%% ofofyy yythethe 3030 yearyear meanmean andand underunder meteorologicalmeteorologicalconditionsconditions aa ‘Drought‘Drought Watch”Watch” waswas inin orderorder totoalertalert thethe effectseffects onon agriculturalagricultural productionproduction..gg pp

Drought continuedDrought continuedDrought continuedDrought continuedRegional Rainfall for February to March 2005

Feb MarchIrrigated

Means (mm) 1 030 yrs mean 30 37

Wet WestMeans (mm) 12 2330 yrs mean 84 9130 yrs mean 84 91

North CoastMeans (mm) 5 530 yrs mean 65 55

EasternMeans (mm) 5 230 yrs mean 82 53

CentralCentralMeans (mm) 0 2130 yrs mean 63 65

Average 11%

Drought continuedDrought continuedDrought continuedDrought continuedAggravatedAggravated byby highhigh daytimedaytime temperaturestemperaturesAggravatedAggravated byby highhigh daytimedaytime temperaturestemperaturesaboveabove 3232oo CC inin somesome areas,areas, canecane yieldsyields fellfellsharplysharply fromfrom lacklack ofof moisture,moisture, aa virtualvirtualdryingdrying outout ofof canescanes inin somesome instancesinstances..

CanesCanes adverselyadversely affectedaffected byby thethe hurricanehurricanewerewere alsoalso thatthat whichwhich sufferedsuffered mostmost

ll ff hh d hd h ddseverelyseverely fromfrom thethe droughtdrought conditioncondition..

Drought continuedDrought continuedDrought continuedDrought continued

Drought continuedDrought continuedDrought continuedDrought continued

Drought continuedDrought continuedDrought continuedDrought continued

Drought continuedDrought continuedDrought continuedDrought continuedAnAn ExtensionExtension BulletinBulletin issuedissued inin MarchMarchAnAn ExtensionExtension BulletinBulletin issuedissued inin MarchMarchnotednoted thatthat fromfrom aa studystudy inin Westmoreland,Westmoreland,canecane yieldyield hadhad fallenfallen byby 1717%% fromfrom aa wellwellmanagedmanaged plotplot reapedreaped inin FebruaryFebruary..

ItIt furtherfurther suggestedsuggested thatthat ifif thethe adverseadversedroughtdrought conditionsconditions persisted,persisted, yieldyield lossloss

ldld llll bb ff 2020%% ff hhcouldcould wellwell bebe inin excessexcess ofof 2020%% forfor thetheindustryindustry..

Cane Production and Cane Production and P d i i 200P d i i 200Productivity 2005Productivity 2005

AA totaltotal ofof 11,,389389,,447447tonnestonnes canecane waswasharvestedharvested atat anan overalloverallcanecane yieldyield ofof 5050..44tc/hatc/ha..tc/ atc/ a

ProductionProduction declineddeclined byby617617 957957 tonnestonnes ((3131%%))617617,,957957 tonnestonnes ((3131%%))whilewhile canecane yieldsyields fellfellbyby 1313..99 tc/hatc/ha aa yieldyielddeclinedecline ofof 2222%%declinedecline ofof 2222%%..

Cane Production and Cane Production and P d i i 200 i dP d i i 200 i dProductivity 2005 continuedProductivity 2005 continued

CC d tid ti thth t tt tCaneCane productionproduction onon thethe estatesestatesamountedamounted toto 830830,,575575 tonnestonnes oror 6060%%

ff thth t t lt t l 6767%% ff thth t tt tofof thethe totaltotal oror 6767%% ofof thethe estatesestatesproductionproduction inin 20042004..

FarmersFarmers producedproduced 4040%% ofof thisthis year’syear’spp yytotaltotal whichwhich waswas 7272%% ofof theirtheir totaltotalproductionproduction inin 20042004..pp

Cane Production and Cane Production and P d i i 200 i dP d i i 200 i dProductivity 2005 continuedProductivity 2005 continued

Cane Production 2004 Versus 2005

Ha Reaped Tonnes Cane tc/ha Tonnes Cane tc/ha 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004

Estates 16,002 830,575 51.90 1,239,951 67.90 Farmers 11,581 558,872 48.30 767,453 59.10 Total 27,583 1,389,447 50.40 2,007,404 64.30

Cane Production and Cane Production and P d i i 200 i dP d i i 200 i dProductivity 2005 continuedProductivity 2005 continued

Tonnes Cane Harvested by Areas2004 vs 2005

Cane Area Crop 2004 Crop 2005 Difference (Tonnes)Frome 626,713 455,396 (171317) 28%

2004 vs 2005

Frome 626,713 455,396 (171317) 28%St. Elizabeth 218,916 154,580 (64366) 30%Long Pond 91,301 58,915 (32386) 36%Hampden 61,877 33,273 (28604) 47%p , , ( )Clarendon 381,013 198,983 (182030) 48%Bernard Lodge 237,595 173,148 (64447) 28%St. Thomas 176,924 120,098 (56826)33%( )Worthy Park 213,065 195,054 (18011) 9%

ReRe--engineering Jamaica’s Sugar engineering Jamaica’s Sugar I dI dIndustryIndustry

Jamaica’sJamaica’s sugarsugar industry,industry, overover thethe pastpast severalseveral yearsyears hashas hadhaddifficultdifficult timestimesdifficultdifficult timestimes..

PressurePressure fromfrom highhigh inputinput costcost andand marginalmarginal profitabilityprofitability callscalls forforrere--engineeringengineering..ee e g ee ge g ee g

“To“To rere--engineerengineer isis notnot aboutabout rere--inventinginventing thethe wheel,wheel, butbut totorecognizerecognize whatwhat wentwent wrong”wrong”..

TraditionalTraditional plantingplanting andand harvestharvest seasonsseasons havehave beenbeen developeddevelopedinin responseresponse toto thethe longlong--termterm appreciationappreciation ofof weatherweather patternspatternsandand characteristicscharacteristics ofof sugarsugar canecane varietiesvarieties..gg

FactoriesFactories mustmust bebe inin aa positionposition toto facilitatefacilitate aa smoothsmooth andandefficientefficient taketake--offoff ofof thethe cropcrop toto maximisemaximise productionproduction andandensureensure profitabilityprofitabilityensureensure profitabilityprofitability..

ReRe--engineering Jamaica’s Sugar engineering Jamaica’s Sugar I d i dI d i dIndustry continuedIndustry continued

CC i ldi ld hh bb llll ll ff i di d iiCaneCane yieldsyields havehave beenbeen generallygenerally lowlow fromfrom inadequateinadequate inputsinputsandand thethe inabilityinability toto replantreplant runrun--downdown fieldsfields..

TheThe areaarea underunder canecane cultivationcultivation hashas beenbeen decliningdeclining annuallyannuallyTheThe areaarea underunder canecane cultivationcultivation hashas beenbeen decliningdeclining annually,annually,especiallyespecially thatthat fromfrom thethe canecane farmersfarmers..

InIn 19651965,, 3030,,895895 canecane farmersfarmers producedproduced 22..44 millionmillion tonnestonnesdd tt 754754 333333 tt ff ll thth 88 000000cane,cane, comparedcompared toto 754754,,333333 tonnestonnes cane,cane, fromfrom lessless thanthan 88,,000000

farmersfarmers inin 20042004..

ReRe--engineeringengineering thereforetherefore mustmust bebe aboutabout reversingreversing thethe trendtrendReRe engineeringengineering thereforetherefore mustmust bebe aboutabout reversingreversing thethe trendtrendandand settingsetting newnew objectivesobjectives toto graspgrasp thethe opportunitiesopportunities thatthat lielieaheadahead..

ReRe--engineering Jamaica’s Sugar engineering Jamaica’s Sugar I d i dI d i dIndustry continuedIndustry continued

Hectares Reaped by FarmerYear Ha Reaped Total1996 19 343 38 672

Hectares Reaped by Farmer

1996 19,343 38,672 1997 19,027 39,582 1998 17,530 35,918 1999 18,150 37,718 2000 16,394 35,814 2001 15 743 35 0022001 15,743 35,002 2002 15,144 33,611 2003 13,291 30,414 2004 12,982 31,234 2005 11,583 27,583

ReRe--engineering Jamaica’s Sugar engineering Jamaica’s Sugar I d i dI d i dIndustry continuedIndustry continued

Fig. 2: Hectares Reaped by Farmers 1996 - 2005

25000

15000

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ha re

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5000

1996

1997

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2000

2001

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2005

Responding to the ChallengeResponding to the ChallengeResponding to the ChallengeResponding to the ChallengeAtAt SIRISIRI anan expansiveexpansive programmeprogramme ofof nurserynursery establishmentestablishment ofof

i li l i ii i llll hh I dI d ffnewnew commercialcommercial varietiesvarieties allall overover thethe IndustryIndustry forfor canecanefarmersfarmers..

E t bli h tE t bli h t ff C tC t Pi tPi t S tS t ff ff iiEstablishmentEstablishment ofof aa CentreCentre PivotPivot SystemSystem forfor farmersfarmers ininClarendonClarendon..

EstablishmentEstablishment ofof DripDrip IrrigationIrrigation projectsprojects inin StSt CatherineCatherine andandEstablishmentEstablishment ofof DripDrip IrrigationIrrigation projectsprojects inin StSt.. CatherineCatherine andandClarendonClarendon..

DemonstrationDemonstration PlotsPlots havehave beenbeen establishedestablished inin severalseveral areasareas totoDemonstrationDemonstration PlotsPlots havehave beenbeen establishedestablished inin severalseveral areasareas totohighlighthighlight thethe performanceperformance ofof newnew varietiesvarieties andand recommendedrecommendedpracticespractices toto enhanceenhance profitabilityprofitability..

PlotsPlots havehave beenbeen establishedestablished inin Clarendon,Clarendon, Trelawny,Trelawny,Westmoreland,Westmoreland, BogBog WalkWalk andand thethe BernardBernard LodgeLodge areasareas..

Responding to the Challenge Responding to the Challenge i di dcontinuedcontinued

Responding to the Challenge Responding to the Challenge i di dcontinuedcontinued

TheThe Industry’sIndustry’s firstfirst stepstep inin respondingresponding toto thethe challengechallenge isis totoyy pp p gp g ggtackletackle thethe canecane supplysupply problemproblem..

ThisThis requiresrequires financefinance forfor replantingreplanting andand fieldfield maintenancemaintenance..

SIASIA hashas respondedresponded byby takingtaking onon thethe riskrisk ofof providingproviding somesomereplantingreplanting loanloan fundsfunds toto farmersfarmers..

FieldsFields mustmust bebe adequatelyadequately maintainedmaintained afterafter harvestingharvesting totoachieveachieve desirabledesirable resultsresults..

dd ldld 6060 /h/h dd bb ddIndustryIndustry yieldsyields averagingaveraging 6060 tc/hatc/ha needneed toto bebe raisedraised toto overover8080 tc/hatc/ha..

ThereThere isis nono roomroom forfor thethe deviationdeviation fromfrom thethe ‘know‘know how’how’ ofofThereThere isis nono roomroom forfor thethe deviationdeviation fromfrom thethe knowknow howhow ofofproductionproduction andand hardlyhardly anyany forfor trialtrial andand errorerror..

ConclusionConclusionConclusionConclusion

“If the strategic objective has been worked“If the strategic objective has been workedIf the strategic objective has been worked If the strategic objective has been worked out together and agreed, and the right out together and agreed, and the right conditions have been created in whichconditions have been created in whichconditions have been created in which conditions have been created in which people can be switched on, the how of people can be switched on, the how of what is to be achieved is a matter ofwhat is to be achieved is a matter ofwhat is to be achieved is a matter of what is to be achieved is a matter of

delegation”.delegation”.

HarveyHarvey--Jones 1988: 95Jones 1988: 95