Geoff Hobbs and Helen Cansick

Transport and Londons growth

Londons population continues to grow....

With increasing population, the number of trips will increase

Under the central population projection, this would mean an increase of 35-40% in the number of trips by 2050

We will need a 70% increase in public transport capacity

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...and we want to maintain Londons status as a leading World City

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To do this, we need to plan for a better future and new infrastructure

Therefore we have put together a long term Infrastructure Plan which will help define future policy

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2036London Plan (FALP)

2031Mayors Transport Strategy

2050London 2050 Infrastructure Plan

The 2050 Infrastructure Plan is the furthest into the future weve ever looked

It will help guide and support the next update to the London Plan and associated Mayors Transport Strategy

The 2050 Plan is supported by various other papers and additional evidence

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Transport Supporting Paper

Enabling Infrastructure; Green, Energy, Water and Waster Infrastructure to 2050

Raising Londons High Speed Connectivity to World Class Levels

Improving Delivery of Londons Infrastructure

The Cost of Londons Long Term Infrastructure (Arup)

The Transport Supporting Paper outlines the transport requirements we think we need up to 2050

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Scale and nature of the challenge

The Key Challenges and Opportunities- Ensuring global success- Housing a growing London- Better, not just bigger London- Innovating for a transport system of tomorrow

Transport Requirements including:

Case for growing the Central Activities Zone (CAZ)

Role of rail in growing the CAZ

A better road system to support growing CAZ

1. Ensuring the foundations for Londons continued global city success

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Key Challenges

and Opportunities

Crowding levels on rail-based public transport in AM Peak (Crowding indexed at 2007 levels)

2. Helping to house a growing London

A balance will need to be found between where growth is accommodated:

Maximising the role of Londons Opportunity Areas

Areas with good public transport

A growing role for town centres

An inner London focus

A denser Outer London

Outside of London

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Key Challenges

and Opportunities

3. Supporting a better, not just a bigger London

We need to improve health, address obesity and make London one of the best cities in the world for walking and cycling

We need to work towards eliminating death and injury on our roads

We need to make 2/3 of all journeys on public transport accessible

We need to develop a pollution free system

We need to cater for an ageing population

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Key Challenges

and OpportunitiesPercentage of population aged 65 or over

4. Innovating to develop the transport system of tomorrow

Future change and innovation in the transport realm will be shaped by a complex web of social, economic, technological, cultural and environmental factors

We will make more widespread use of advanced technology including information technology, big data, 3D visualisation techniques, traffic signal and traffic management technology andparking sensor technology

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Key Challenges

and Opportunities

If fully autonomous vehicles are legalised the benefits could be great: Shared ownership models Sustainable mobility patterns Road capacity efficiencies Improved road safety Demand management

Rail vision and strategy

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TfL is providing the biggest investment in the Tube and rail system in its history...

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...enabling Central London activities to expand

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...while London Overground is enabling the regeneration of inner London

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Northsouth connections are already being upgraded through Thameslink to provide regional links...

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...and Crossrail will provide an east west through route linking Londons three main business districts and Heathrow

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But we need to improve links further to prevent worse crowding....

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Maximise performance of existing network through Tube upgrade programme

Further Crossrailsstarting with Crossrail 2 by 2030

Upgrade central London stations to enhance growth and catalyse growth

Transform the commuter rail network

... And get the most from existing and potential growth areas

Extensions to the existing network to connect to areas with major development potential

Package of investment to maximise potential of Opportunity Areas

Focus future growth (Opportunity Areas/Housing Zones) in areas with spare network capacity and existing transport connections

Embed unlocking growth/development in all major transport schemes

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These OAs alone will support nearly 200,000 jobs and provide just under 60,000 homes

One vital scheme is Crossrail 2, which would support growth and regeneration, serving a number of opportunity areas

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This will alleviate crowding, especially on Victoria, Piccadilly and Northern lines, while improving dispersal rail termini, including HS2

Crossrail 2 will also provide additional connectivity through a number interchanges

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Rail can also open up wider opportunities across and beyond London for sustainable development

Further devolution of suburban rail networks in London

Extend high quality metro style services across the whole city including a south London metro

Improved public transport and sustainable travel options to support densification of suburbs

Targeted investment to help town centres adapt to their changing role as locations for city living

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...and to transform the customer experience

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An enhanced accessibility programme, with two thirds of public transport journeys step free by 2050

Provision of seamless information and integrated systems for users

Delivering a cooler Tube

Fit for the future stations

Improved real time information / WiFi

Simplified ticketing experience with visitor information centres

24/7 services

Roads modernisation plan and strategic measures

London needs world class roads and streets

Our vision is for a bigger and better city

Place improvements provide public realm, health, walking and cycling benefits

But, with growth, they put an ever greater pressure on the road network

Congestion mitigation measures are also needed

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Roads need to fulfil different functions

UnlockingMoving

Functioning

Living

Protecting Sustaining

Londons roads can be grouped in to nine broad street types

Street types have different roles and priorities, and require different approaches

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A broad range of tools needs to be used

Infrastructure and assets fit for the future

Intelligent systems and management

More efficient / flexible use of

space

Changing behaviour /

managing demandSubstitute / re-

located /enhanced capacity

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4bn investment in roads and streets to 2020/21 to:

1. Ensure our roads assets are fit for the future

2. Deliver a programme of major highway

3. Deliver the Mayors vision for cycling improvements

4. Keep London moving

5. Deliver a further 40% reduction in fatalities and serious injuries on Londons roads

The Road Modernisation Plan

Major highways improvements - Euston Circus

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20142004

Major highways improvements - Tottenham Hale Gyratory

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Major highways improvements works started

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Kings Cross (interim) works started Nov 2014

A243 Junction with B280 currently with Rushett lane

closed

Malden Rushett works started Nov 2014

Oval Triangle works started Dec 2014

Excavations Site compound

Cycling schemes are being processed

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North- South Cycle Superhighway alignment along Blackfriars Road

East - West Cycle Superhighway alignment through Tower Hill

Cycle Superhighway route 2 upgrade

Cycle Superhighway route 5 Oval to Pimlico

Junction improvements

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Old Street - ends 11 January 2015

Archway Public consultation ends 14 Dec 2014 Elephant and Castle urban realm ends 22 Dec 2014

Stockwell Cross - ends 19 January 2015

Even with all the Mayors Transport Strategy investment, significant increases in congestion by 2031 are expected

Many of the locations for placeimprovements are also on the strategic road network

It is essential to maintain an efficient network as well as making placeimprovements

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Rising congestion threatens Londons economic productivity and competitiveness

This will reduce Londons attractiveness as a place to locate business

This will undermine the value of the benefits of the investments made to make London a better place

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Longer journey times Poor reliability

Lack of network resilience

In the short term, greater use of technology and enforcement will mitigate some of this congestion

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Intelligent systems & traffic management

Flexible use of traffic signals

Targeted enforcement and rapid response Bus priority

This will mitigate some near term morning peak congestion impacts in central London

Evening peak delays are expected to be more difficult to mitigate

However, given longer term congestion forecasts, further measures will be needed

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1 Technology and enforcement

The provision of more space and / or more demand management measures would be needed to tackle this congestion

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Further encouraging people to modify their travel behaviour is expected to make a modest contribution

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Changing travel behaviour

Car clubs and car-lite development

Promotion of walking, cycling, public transport

This is expected to give a small, though worthwhile, reduction in traffic levels and congestion

Measures to improve air quality will also have some impact on reducing congestion

The Ultra Low Emission Zone would require all vehicles driving in central London to meet new exhaust emissions standards

In 2020 ULEZ is expected to reduce vehicle kms by about 5% in central London

This congestion benefit will gradually reduce as the natural churn of vehicles increases compliance with the scheme

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Encouraging behaviour change and use of cleaner vehicles would help but leave a large gap

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Travel behaviour and ULEZ*

* Initial ULEZ impact would be largely diminished by 2031, though tightening of ULEZ standards would have an impact on congestion

Could we improve freight management?

To increase proportion of deliveries outside congested times:

Central London?

Town centres?

Essential daytime activity?

Time sensitive goods?

Night time economy?

Noise concerns?

Remove outdated

regulation?

Encourage consolidation?

Level playing field?

Possible in short term?

Cost for business?

Improved freight and servicing management could be effective at reducing central London congestion

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Voluntary measuresand incentives

Pricing / regulation

Travel behaviour and ULEZ*

Freight &servicing

mgmt

Improvements to key corridors could provide some congestion relief for central London

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Fly-unders and mini-tunnels

River crossings

Roofing-over to unlock development

Replacement road space, such as tolled tunnels for essential traffic, could have a role

Additional space?

Remove surface

eyesores?

New routes?

Improved journey times?

High cost?Long lead

time?

Enhanced or replacement space could be moderately effective at reducing central London congestion

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Enhanced / replacement

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Travel behaviour and ULEZ*

Replacement capacity

(with demand management to lock-in benefits)

Freight &servicing

mgmt

We could also consider new ways of paying for road use as an option to reduce congestion

...may consider pricing if other measures are insufficiently effective...

...consider changing the way we pay for road use...

...give proper consideration tothe wider use of smarter charging...

...a more sophisticated system of congestion charging...

River crossings consultation

...inequity of charging only east London crossings...

As with other strategic measures, there are pros and cons to new ways of paying for roads

London already has new forms of paying for roads

Further ways could include:

A London vignette?

Tolls for new roads?

Area charges (ULEZ)?

Views of the public?

Cost for business?

Social equity?

Tried and tested?

Flexible?Raises funds?

Low cost?

New ways of paying for road use could be effective at reducing congestion

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New ways of paying for roads

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Enhanced / replacement

space

Travel behaviour and ULEZ*

Freight &servicing

mgmt

Could all three strategic measures have a role in an integrated, long term approach?

Freight & servicing managementRe-focussed on current and future challenges

Substitute, re-located or enhanced capacityMaintaining space for different functions and unlocking growth

New ways of paying for roadsEffective demand management and replacement funding stream to pay for roads

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Questions?

www.tfl.gov.uk

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