Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institutein Radom, Poland

World Conference of Futures Research 2015:Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems: Where Futures Research, Education and Action Meet. 11–12 June 2015, Turku, Finland

TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN PUBLIC RESEARCH ORGANISATIONS: A CASE STUDY ANALYSIS

Anna SACIO-SZYMAŃSKA, PhD Econ.

Beata POTERALSKA, PhD Econ.

Adam MAZURKIEWICZ, Prof.

Presentation plan

Foresight research rationale

Foresight process

Foresight results

Lessons learned/ take-away messages

Future future research

Introduction

2/17

GENERATION

OF INNOVATIONS

DEVELOPMENT

OF RESEARCH

APPARATUS

EDUCATION

AND TRAINING

Who we are

3/17

MECHATRONICS IT CONTROL SYSTEMS MATERIALS EDUCATION

TECHNICAL & ENVIRONMENTAL

SAFETY

BIOECONOMY TRIBOLOGYBIOTECHNOLOGY

What we do

TEXTILES

INNOVATION

MANAGEMENT

4/17

Pilot Foresight Project

“Health and Life”2006 – 2009

2003 – 2005

National Foresight

Programme “Poland 2020”

18 sectoral & regional

foresight projects

2009 – 2011

2011 – 201322 sectoral & regional

foresight projects

1969 - onwards„Poland 2000 Plus” Forecast

Committee of Polish Academy of

Sciences

2013 – 2015Implementation of NFP results

+ 4 more sectoral/regional projects

Key technology/research directions addressed in Polish

foresight projects according to FRASCATI Manual

classification

Source: Ejdys J., Krawczyk-Dembicka E., Priority

technology and research directions in Polish foresight

activities, Maintenance Problems Quarterly, No 4/2012.

Materials science: 25,5%Environmental

engineering: 24,6%Informatics

engineering: 7%Nanotechnology: 6,5%

Biotechnology: 4,9%…..

Foresight in Poland5/17

Sacio-Szymańska A., Mazurkiewicz A., Poteralska B., Labedzka J.• (2007) Development of foresight methodology in Poland verified by the example of

nanotechnology, COST A22 Final Conference: From Oracles to Dialogue - Exploring New Ways to Explore the Future

• (2009) Scenario building for Research Area „Sustainable Development of Poland”, NationalForesight Programme „Poland 2020”, Ministry of Science and Higher Education.

• (2009) National Foresight Programme „Poland 2020”, The European Foresight Monitoring Network Collection of EFMN Briefs – Part 2, European Commission Directorate General for Research Cooperation.

• (2009) Determination of the priority research fields with the use of foresight methods, Ministry of Economy.

• (2010) Application of foresight methods for the determination of strategic research directions, Innovative technological solutions for sustainable development, Ministry of Economy.

• (2011) Technology foresight methodology for Sustainable Development, Sectoral foresightproject on advanced production technologies.

• (2011-2012) Setting priority R&D directions for the strategic research institutes, ISPIM International Society for Professional Innovation Management.

• (2012) Foresight for setting priority development directions in strategic research institutes,EFP Final Conference: Young Researcher‘s Session on FLA Related Research.

• (2013) Using Corporate Foresight Results Effectively. A Case Study from Poland, Technology Assessment and Policy Areas of Great Transitions, PACITA.

• (2014) Application of hybrid foresight model, ISPIM International Society for Professional Innovation Management.

• (2014) Evaluation of technology foresight projects, European Journal of Futures Research.

• (2014) Intellectual capital measurement in technology foresight, 5th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) - Engage today to shape tomorrow.

• (2015) Foresight in the enterprise, Polish perspective (enterprise learning and talent management).

Foresight capacity building in ITeE

National ForesightProgramme

”Poland 2020”(2007-2009)

Sectoral foresight projecton advanced production

technologies(2009 – 2011)

Sectoral foresight on eco-effective technologicalsolutions (2009 – 2011)

Regional foresight on nanotechnologies2006, 2009-2013

COST - Expert Judgment Network: Bridging the Gap Between Scientific

Uncertainty and Evidence-Based Decision

Making (2014-2017)

H2020-ISSI-2014-1 Citizenand multi-actor

consultation on H2020(2015 – 2018)

ITeE

–P

IB f

ore

sigh

tfo

r st

rate

gic

pu

rpo

ses

6/17

Research rationale

Foresightfor strategicpurposes

companies

public research

organisations

profit-oriented

public benefit-oriented

socio-culturaltechnological economicecological political factors

Focus on the society

Focus on customersFocus on international, national, regionallaws, rules, culture, customs, history.

Focus on the EU/nationalpolicies/norms/regulations/strategies

7/17

National ForesightProgrammes/ Smart

specialisation strategies

What determines R&D prioritiesof a public research organisation?

EU policy (strategies, programmes and projects)

A MACRO PERSPECTIVE

National policy (governmental strategies)

Public sector needs(projects for ministries, national agencies etc.)

Business sector needs(projects for companies)

R&D projects realisedby competitors,

co-operants

A MICRO PERSPECTIVE

R&D PRIORITIES OF A PUBLIC RESEARCH

ORGANISATION

PUBLIC MEASURESFOR INNOVATION SUPPORT

8/17

SUPRA-

NATIONAL

FORESIGHT

NATIONAL &

REGIONAL

FORESIGHT

SECTORAL

FORESIGHT

CORPORATE

FORESIGHT

FORESIGHT OF PUBLIC RESEARCH ORGANISATIONS

Research rationale

The priorities determined in the NFP “Poland 2020” were too manyand too broad

9/17

2009 – 2010

1st iteration

2011 – 2012

2nd iteration

2013

3rd iteration

Results:• Methodology (qualitative)• Lists and characteristics of

key research priorities in 5 thematic areas

• 3 scenarios -• 5-year R&D programme

launched +

Results:• Methodology

(quantitative)• Database (key factors/ key

technologies/ scenarios

probability -)

• Foresight methodologyteam/ research cont. +

Results:• Methodology

(qualitative/quantitative)• IC measurement + /

bibliometrics -• New sci.-tech. dep.

launched• Future foresight orientation

set +

Advanced production technologies Technical and environmental safety

Technology foresight in ITeE – PIB10/17

Objective: Determination of priorities for research in the long and short term

SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT

Scenario B

MARKET

Scenario C

High research potential

Satisfactory

financial

standing

Un-

satsfactory

financial

standing

Low research potential

BASIC RESEARCH

Scenario A

UNDER THREAT

OF EXISTENCE

Scenario D

2009 – 2010 1st iteration11/17

Test stand for testing the efficiency of heat

recovery recuperatorsused in ventilation systems in energyefficient buildings

9/14

Didactic stands for e-learning in the field of

i.e. mechatronics

Automatic optical inspection system (AOI)for the producer of automotive parts

EeB FoF ICT

Foresight-informed research results12/17

IntellectualCapital

measurementin public research

organisations

The identified gap in theory and practice of IC measurement and technology foresightin public research organisations.

Technology foresightin public research

organisations

Theoretical concepts:

(1) knowledge management,

(2) intellectual capital measurement,

(3) the knowledge-based view of the firm,

(4) the resource based view of strategy, and

(5) the technology foresight.

2013 3rd iteration13/17

The IC measurement model at ITeE – PIB

Intellectual Capital measurement

CLEAR RECOMMENDATIONS FOR

THE MANAGEMENT

FUTURE R&D PRIORITIES

LIST OF QUANTITATIVE INDICATORS

ORGANISATIONAL CHANGE

2013 3rd iteration14/17

Lessons learned Developed the

organisational and

methodological capacity to

set longterm priorities for

research,

Learned that some

quantitative approaches do

work and bring added value

(i.e. IC measurement),

Learned that some

quantitative methods are

useless (i.e. measuring

probability of scenarios)

Think

Act

Interact

Learned that organisational

culture has been the key

driver of change

Learned that it is not about

adapting foresight to

organisational culture, but the

other way round

First step in facilitating

change is making the

organisation leaders accept

the fact that the change is

needed

15/17

“If you want to build a ship, don’t drum up people to collect wood and don’t assign them tasks and work,

Future future research

but rather teach them to long for the endless immensity of the sea.”― Antoine de Saint Exupéry

16/17

Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institutein Radom, Poland

World Conference of Futures Research 2015:Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems: Where Futures Research, Education and Action Meet. 11–12 June 2015, Turku, Finland

TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN PUBLIC RESEARCH ORGANISATIONS: A CASE STUDY ANALYSIS

Anna SACIO-SZYMAŃSKA, PhD Econ.

Beata POTERALSKA, PhD Econ.

Adam MAZURKIEWICZ, Prof.

Futures map frameOsmo Kuusi, Kerstin Cuhls and Karlheinz Steinmüller

1: Wide scope of possible future paths

2: Most relevant futures paths

3: Covering explanation of past facts

4: Most relevant past facts are explained

5: Many people understand the map/ simple visualization

6: Relevant experts understand the map

2 4 2 4 4 5

0- not at all noticed

1 – poorly noticed

2 – noticed

3 – taken into account

4 – taken rather well into account

5 – taken well into account

6 – taken especially well into

account

Six criteria of external validity of the map aplied to 2011 – 2012 2nd iteration