Institute for Security Studies Pardee Center for International Futures African Futures 2050.

Institute for Security Studies

Pardee Center for International Futures

African Futures 2050African Futures 2050

African Futures Project 2050

Institute for Security Studies (Africa in the New World 2008)

Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures

The Founding The Founding PartnersPartners

African Futures 2050

Demographics and human development

Economics with strengths and challenges

Socio-political elements and choices

Sustainability

Elements of a Elements of a Story about Story about

Africa’s Future:Africa’s Future:


Global Transformations

Actions within Africa

Telling a Story Telling a Story about Africa’s about Africa’s Future (Key Future (Key

Uncertainties):Uncertainties):

A Tool for the Story: International Futures (IFs)

PopulationPopulation



EconomyEconomy



EducationEducation

HealthHealth

EconomyEconomy


AgricultureAgriculture

EnergyEnergy

TechnologyTechnology

Environmental Resources and Quality

Environmental Resources and Quality

Socio-PoliticalSocio-

Political

InternationalPolitical

InternationalPolitical

The IFs Project

Free to anyone

www.ifs.du.edu

Non-commercial and open

Used by the UNEP’s GEO 4, US NIC, and EU projects

FreeFree++

OpenOpen

African Regions for the African Futures Project

Not identical to AU regions

Population: An Impending Global TransformationBy 2030 Africa will be larger than China or India

1960: <10 percent of world2010 ~15 percent of world2100 ~32 percent of world

A thread of the report story: Africa’s growing (positive) importance in the world

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

Millio

n P

eople

Year1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 2023 2031 2039 2047

Africa China India USA EU27

African Population: Critical Regional Differences

1960 Eastern/Southern < 2

2050 Eastern/Southern ~ 3

African Population: The Past and Future of Fertility

2

3

4

5

6

7

Bir

ths

per

Wom

an

Year1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 2023 2031 2039 2047

AFP Central Africa AFP Eastern Africa AFP Northern Africa

AFP Southern Africa AFP Western Africa

African Population: Growing Demographic Dividend in Global Context

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

Perc

ent of popuation b

etw

een 1

5-6

5 y

ears

of age

Year2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048


African Population: Urbanization in Global Context

1960 Africa 19 percent2010 Africa ~ 41 percent2050 Africa ~ 55 percent

A thread of the report story: Urbanization and economic dynamism

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Urb

an p

opula

tion a

s perc

ent of to

tal

Year1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 2023 2031 2039 2047


African Human Development: Global Context

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Index

Year1980 1987 1994 2001 2008 2015 2022 2029 2036 2043 2050


African Literacy: Global ContextIndia as a Model for African Development?

A thread of the report story: India as a model for Africa

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Literacy Rates

Perc

ent

Year2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048


African Literacy: Regional Differences

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Per

cent

Year2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 2043 2047



African Health and Life Expectancy: Regional Context

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Years

Year1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 2023 2031 2039 2047



African Health: Regional Differences

AFP Eastern Africa AFP Southern Africa

2010

2030

African Health: An ImpendingTransition

Absolute numbers of deaths cross in 2025; in 2050 obesity rate will be near under-nutrition rate

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Mill

ion

year

s

Year2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048

Communicable disease Non-communicable disease Injuries and accidents

African Economy: Accelerating Growth?

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Lions on the Move

Global Transformation: China-Africa Trade (Billion $)

Source: Simon Freemantle & Jeremy Stevens, Confronting some of the major criticisms of Sino-Africa ties, Economics: BRIC and Africa Standard Bank, 5 March 2010, p 5

Threads of the report story: Growing importance to Africa of ChinaGrowing South-South Linkages

African Economy: Regional Variation Historically

A thread of the report story: Great diversity within Africa

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

Thousa

nd 2

000 d

olla

rs p

er

capita

Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Central Africa Eastern Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa

African Economy: Future Regional Variation

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Tho

usan

d do

llars

per

cap

ita (

PP

P)

Year2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048



African Economies: Persistent Extreme (<$1.25) Poverty

A thread of the report story: Persistent challenges

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Mill

ion p

eople

Year2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048


African Economies: Dimensions of Transformation

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Lions on the Move

A thread of the report story: Economic diversification

African Economic Challenge: Regional Transformations

2005

AFP Western Africa(2050)

2005

AFP Eastern Africa(2050)

2005

AFP Northern Africa(2050)

2005

AFP Southern Africa(2050)

2005

AFP Central Africa(2050)0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Year = 2050

Exp

orts

pe

r ca

pita

(20

00

do

llars

)

Economic diversification (manufactures and services as percent of GDP)

AFP Western Africa AFP Eastern Africa AFP Northern Africa

AFP Southern Africa AFP Central Africa

African Economic Challenge: Coming Transformations

2005

Nigeria(2050)

2005

Egypt(2050)

2005

Ethiopia(2050)

2005

South Africa(2050)

2005

Kenya(2050)

2005

Angola(2050)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Year = 2050

Exp

ort

s per

capita

(2000 d

olla

rs)

Economic diversification (manufactures and services as percent of GDP)

Nigeria Egypt Ethiopia South Africa Kenya Angola

African Agricultural Productivity Challenge: Global Context

A thread of the report story: Agriculture potential and challenges (e.g. water)

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Ton

s/H

ecta

r

Year2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048


African Environmental Challenge: Climate Change and Precipitation

Source: Oli Brown and Alec Crawford, From Climate Change and Security in Africa, A Study for the Nordic-African Foreign Ministers Meeting, March 2009, p 15. Available at http://www.iisd.org/publications/pub.aspx?pno=1093

African Energy Challenge: Riding the Production Transition

Threads of the report story:

New oil, gas, other mineral discoveries will be large

Peak oil and gas will come also for Africa

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Bill

ion

Bar

rels

of O

il E

quiv

alen

t

Year2005 2020 2035 2050

Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa

African Infrastructure Challenge: Building and Maintaining

Units: Billion dollars annuallySource: Vivien Foster and Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia (ed’s) Africa's Infrastructure: A Time for

Transformation, Africa Development Forum Series, Agence Française de Développement and the World Bank, Washington DC, 2010, p 7. Available at http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/aicd/library/doc/552/africa%E2%80%99s-infrastructure-time-transformation (accessed on 3 December 2010)

http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/aicd/library/doc/552/africa%E2%80%99s-infrastructure-time-transformation

http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/aicd/library/doc/552/africa%E2%80%99s-infrastructure-time-transformation

African Infrastructure Challenge: Sanitation and Safe Water

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Per

cent

Year2005 2020 2035 2050

Imrproved Sanitation Safe Water

African Infrastructure Challenge: Electricity

Current value in the US: 14,000

Current values in India and Africa: ~ 600

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Kilo

watt-h

ours

per

capita

Year2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048


African Regional Challenge: Rail Connections

African Infrastructure Leapfrog: Mobile and Broadband

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Acc

ess

per

100

Year1995 2001 2007 2013 2019 2025 2031 2037 2043 2049

Broadband Access Mobile Access

African Regional Challenge: Intraregional Trade

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Lions on the Move: 25

African Governance Challenge: Democracy/Freedom

Source: Freedom House, 2010 available at http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=25&year=2010

Free: Benin, Botswana, Cape Verde, Ghana, Mali, Mauritius, Namibia, São Tomé & Príncipe, South Africa

Partly Free: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia,

Not Free: Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Republic of Congo, DR Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon, Guinea, Libya, Mauritania, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Swaziland, Tunisia, Zimbabwe

African Democracy: Regional History

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Inde

x

Year1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007


African Government Challenge: Democratic Deficit

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Year2010 2050


The Relationship between GDP per Capita and Transparency (Lack of Corruption)

In the long run GDP per Capita brings down corruption

In the short run corruption brings down GDP per capita

Afr-Eastern

Afr-Middle

Afr-Northern

Afr-Southern

Afr-Western

Amer-Carib Amer-Central

Amer-North

Amer-South

Asia-East

Asia-SoCent

Asia-SoEast

Asia-West

Eur-East

Eur-North

Eur-South

Eur-West Oceania

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Tran

spar

ency

Inte

rnat

iona

l Cor

rupt

ion

GDP per Capita at PPP

African Security Challenge: Global Context

Source: Monty G. Marshall and Benjamin Cole. 2009

African Security Challenge: Africa in Global Context

Source: Source SIPRI, http://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2010/02/02A

http://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2010/02/02A

The Relationship between GDP per Capita and Vulnerability to Conflict

In the long run GDP per Capita brings down conflict

In the short run conflict brings down GDP per capita

Afr-Eastern

Afr-Middle

Afr-Northern

Afr-Southern

Afr-Western

Amer-Carib

Amer-Central

Amer-North

Amer-South

Asia-East

Asia-SoCent

Asia-SoEast

Asia-West

Eur-East

Eur-North Eur-South

Eur-West

Oceania

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

United Nations Sub-RegionsS

tate

Fra

gili

ty Index

of M

ars

hall

and C

ole

GDP per capita at PPP


Africa is perceived far too negatively in much of world

Africa is rising on most dimensions, absolutely and relatively

Africa does face many challenges

Final: Future is always uncertain

Recapping the Recapping the Story:Story:

Development- focused African

Governance

Weak/Parasitic African

Governance

Friendly Global Context

Harsh Global Context

African Renaissance

Politics of the Belly

Arrested Development

Opportunities Lost

Alternative Futures in Africa: Exploring Uncertainty and Opportunity

Institute for Security Studies Pardee Center for International Futures African Futures 2050.

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Transcript of Institute for Security Studies Pardee Center for International Futures African Futures 2050.