Tanzania Opinion Polls-Conducted by Synovate

Social, Political, Economic &

Cultural Barometer

May 2010 Report

© 2010. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved.

The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property of Synovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you under the understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidence and that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, including communication to any third party without Synovate’s express prior consent and/or payment of related professional services fees in full.

Steadman now Synovate

May 2010 Report

Date: 15th June 2010

Methodology

Poll MethodologyPoll Methodology

Dates of pollingDates of polling May 9th May 9th –– May 19May 19thth

Sample SizeSample Size 2,000 respondents2,000 respondents

Sampling methodologySampling methodology Random, MultiRandom, Multi--stage stratified using PPSstage stratified using PPS

2© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

UniverseUniverse Tanzania adults, aged 18+ living in Urban Tanzania adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areasand Rural areas

Data collection Data collection

methodologymethodology

Structured FaceStructured Face--toto--Face interviews at the Face interviews at the household levelhousehold level

Sampling errorSampling error +/+/--2.2 with a 95% confidence level2.2 with a 95% confidence level

�The target population for this survey was all Tanzania adults aged 18 and above (voting age).

A sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn to achieve a 40:60 urban to rural ratio. The

maximum margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample

size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. At the same time this sample size is large

enough to administer strict quality control measures in order to manage any occurrence of

non-random errors. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 21st and 26th March

2010

Poll Methodology (Cont..)Poll Methodology (Cont..)


�To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability

proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensures that regions with a higher population size

had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 27 regions

in Tanzania

�The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because

they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics

and also for quality control.

These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as

respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews.

The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random

starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4

households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was

then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known

as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In

cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3

Poll Methodology (Cont..)Poll Methodology (Cont..)


cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3

callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field

interviewer substituted that household for another.

The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended

questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided,

including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked.

Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum

of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field

managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

Satisfaction with Govt

23%

24%

25%

26%

26%

30%

33%

33%

33%

34%

37%

43%

51%

Farming

Cost of living

Water

Electricity

Health

Education

Famine

Jobs

Roads

Price of food

Poverty

HIV/AIDS

Corruption/bribery

“The Most serious problem facing Tanzania- by Total


1%

1%

7%

10%

10%

11%

11%

11%

13%

13%

14%

16%

17%

17%

23%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Lack of farm inputs

Malaria

Tribalism / national identity

Shelter

Government

Crime/insecurity

Political instability

Fuel Scarcity

Price of fuel

Foreign exploitation of resources

Human rights

Climate change

Drought

Drug trafficking/ drug use

Farming

Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

The biggest Economic problem facing

Tanzanians – By Total

1 2 3 4 5 8Total

High food & other commodity prices (Inflation) 33% 31% 20% 11% 5% 0% 100%

Poverty 41% 30% 17% 8% 3% 0% 100%

High cost of transport 7% 20% 38% 29% 6% 0% 100%

Unemployment 23% 23% 21% 27% 5% 0% 100%



How Tanzanian’s have coped with high

commodity price – By total

No response to high commodity prices

Skipping meals

Cutting budget on other household items

23%

23%

45%


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

DKN/RTA

Borrowing money from the Bank

5%

5%


How Often Have you gone without the

following?Need Total

Food Frequently 12%

Occasionaly 32%

Rarely 20%

Never 35%

DK/RTA 0%

Cooking Fuel Frequently 15%

Occasionaly 31%

Rarely 27%

Never 26%

DK/RTA 2%

Clean drinking water Frequently 20%

Occasionaly 27%


Occasionaly 27%

Rarely 24%

Never 29%

DK/RTA 1%

Medical care Frequently 19%

Occasionaly 35%

Rarely 24%

Never 20%

DK/RTA 1%

Cash for daily needs Frequently 39%

Occasionaly 31%

Rarely 19%

Never 10%

DK/RTA 1%

Electricity Frequently 34%

Occasionaly 19%

Rarely 15%

Never 14%

DK/RTA 18%


Do you support Bishop Kakobe in His fight

to Stop power cable?

40%

50%50%

Recently the leader of the Full Gospel Bible fellowship Church in Tanzania Bishop Kakobe led his followers in 72 days stand off with the government to oppose the laying of electric cables over their church.


0%

10%

20%

30%

Yes No Neither RTA Don't know

27%

6%

15%

2%


Has the Media Prompted the Growth of

language – By Total

Total

Radio Promotion 77%

Dettered 8%

NR/Nome 15%

Television Promotion 51%

Dettered 12%


Dettered 12%

NR/Nome 37%

Newspapers Promotion 40%

Dettered 11%

NR/Nome 48%

Internet Promotion 20%

Dettered 14%

NR/Nome 66%


Employment

How many Tanzania are currently Employed

No93%


Yes7%


How many Tanzanian’s supported the

national Strike called by TUCTA on 5th May

2010

No59%


Yes41%


Whom do Tanzania blame for the plight of

workers

30%

40% 39%

26%


0%

10%

20%

Leader of the Trade Union

(TUCTA)

The government itself by ignoring

the workers

President The government should be blamed

for not raising workers sara

Workers themselves

Governement leaders

Employer at companies

DK

6% 6%5%

4%

2%

12%


POLITICS

Do you Approve or disapprove of the

Governance general PerformanceApprove

54%

Disapprove24%

DKN/RTA22%

How much do you trust the following Institution?



Trust No trust DK/RTA Total

Parliament 72% 26% 1% 100%

The President 82% 17% 0% 100%

The Prime Minister 83% 15% 2% 100%

The Cabinet 65% 32% 3% 100%

Tanzania Police Force 39% 59% 1% 100%

National Examination Council 47% 49% 3% 100%

The Judiciary 45% 53% 2% 100%

Financial institutions 51% 46% 3% 100%

Public health system 51% 48% 1% 100%

PCCB/TAKUKURU 32% 64% 4% 100%

Opposition Parties 51% 46% 3% 100%

National Electoral Commission 52% 45% 3% 100%

Zanzibar Electoral Commission 46% 43% 12% 100%

SUMATRA 44% 44% 12% 100%

TUCTA 51% 40% 9% 100%

How would you rate the performance of the

following leaders/Institutions

Good Poor DK/RTA

President Jakaya Kikwete 78% 8% 14%

The Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda 82% 6% 12%

The Vice President of the United Republic of Tanzania 76% 5% 19%

Cabinet Ministers 57% 13% 30%

Members of Parliament 60% 13% 28%

Civil Servants 44% 17% 39%



Civil Servants 44% 17% 39%

The Police force 28% 40% 32%

Health Facilities 40% 26% 36%

NGOs 58% 10% 32%

Media 77% 4% 19%

Musicians 71% 7% 22%

TANESCO 30% 35% 35%

TUCTA 43% 20% 36%

SUMATRA 36% 21% 43%

PCCB 27% 36% 37%

Opinion Polls

In your opinion do you think that NEC/ZEC

has made the registration of voters?

30%

40%

50%

43%


0%

10%

20%

Very easy Very difficult Complicated the process

Done nothing Delayed the process

NR

21%

18%

10%

7%

1%


Are you a registered voter?

Yes88%

No11%

NR/RTA1%

Are you a registered voter?


I will most likely vote,

78%

I will not vote at all, 22%DNK/RTA, 1%

If the elections were to be called tomorrow? Would you Vote?

Why are you not sure whether you will vote?

I am not prepared to vote

The nature of my work won't allow me to vote

I have not updated my voter's card

I am fed up with politics

4%

6%

23%

60%


0% 20% 40% 60%

NR

I don`t believe my leaders

Mwanafunzi

The elected candidates have no help

I am not prepared to vote

1%

1%

1%

2%

4%


Who will you most likely vote for as

president in October current election?

73%

69%

40%

60%

80%

Oct - Dec 09 Jan - Mar 2010



10% 9%

1% 1% 1% 1% 2%

6%

11%

1% 2%5%

0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%

0%

20%

40%

If you were to select one of the youthful

leaders to be president today who would you

vote for?

30%

40% 39%


0%

10%

20%

13%

11%

8%

6%

4%3%

2% 2%1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%


30%

40%

50%

60% 55%

If you think of democracy in Tanzania

today, Would you say it is



0%

10%

20%

30%

Democracy with minor problems

Full democracy

Democracy with major problems

Not a democracy

DNK/RTA

21%16%

5%2%

Political Parties

Which political party do you feel closest to?

70%

65%

60%

80%

Oct - Dec 2009 Jan - Mar 2010


17%

9%

1% 1% 2%

18%

10%

1% 1% 1%3%

0%

20%

40%

CCM Chadema CUF TLP CCJ it is my secret UDP I am not concerned with party

issues

NR


In your opinion, to what extent do you think

the launch of CCJ will affect the currently

operating political party in Tanzania?

Will not affect

at all

To a less

extent

Neither

affect

To large

extent DK

CCM 212 209 83 183 102

Chadema 144 196 131 44 274


Chadema 144 196 131 44 274

CUF 147 172 119 58 293

TLP 124 148 114 70 333

DP 125 127 110 68 359

NCCR Mageuzi 12 - - - 777

SAU 12 - - - 777

UDP 12 - - - 777

Do you support the establishment of a

government of National Unity in Zanzibar?

Yes63%

No36%

NR1%

50%44%

Recently HE Amani Karume and Mr Seif Sharif Hamad the secretary of Civic United Front established Talks to improve on the relationship between to their parties. What is your opinion about the political ceasefire that is prevailing?


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

It will last It is temporary

Don't know No comment

44%

35%

14%

6%


In your opinion do you support the call that there should be a referendum in Zanzibar to determine whether Zanzibar should have government of National unity

Yes54%

No33%

Neither4%

Don't know9%

In your opinion do you support the idea of

independent candidates running for

elections?

Yes48%

No25%

DK27%


Yes36%

No49%

Refused to Answer

15%

Do you support the suggestion by MPs that Tanzania should withdraw from the customs union on account of the failure of Tanzania in DOHA?

In your opinion which Member of Parliament has performed very well in the current parliament?

Omar Sheya

Hamisi Kagasheki

Peter Msola

Dr.Harrison Mwakyembe

Samuel Sitta

Halima Mdee

John Pombe Magufuli

Mizengo Pinda

Anna Kilango Malecela

Dr. Wilbroad Slaa

Zitto Zuberi Kabwe

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

4%

4%

8%

9%

28%

What about Members of Parliament? Would you

say they are ...


0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Hamadi Rashidi Mohamed

Christopher Ole Sendeka

Mohamed Dewiji

Dr Hussein Mwinyi

Hawa Ghasia

Mohammedi Sinani

Lawrence Masha

Jenista Mhagama

Rostam Aziz

Ndesamburo

Mohamed Seif Khatib

Edward Lowassa

Fuya Kimbita

Charles Mwera

Omar Sheya

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

10 % Refuse to answer the Question


Respectful79%

Disrespectful19%

DNK/RTA2%

say they are ...

The government has taken to court several high profile suspects to answer charges of corruption. To what extent do you support this move?

20%

40%

60%

80%77%

17%

3% 4%

LSM LSM8 154 to 186


0%

Support strongly

Support somewhat

Do not support at all

DK/RTA

3% 4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Support strongly

Support somewhat

Do not support at all

DK/RTA

79%

14%

4% 4%

The government has taken to court several high profile suspects to answer charges of corruption. To what extent do you support this move?


How happy are you about your life

generally? Would you say? Happy49%

DK25%

Unhappy26%

To have my family

I not satsfied with my current life status

I am satsfied with what I get

I have tested my health

Life is very difficult, money are not available

9%

10%

12%

12%

18%

What makes you happy/unhappy?


Base: n=2000 (All respondents)0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20%

NR

To sit with friends discusing about life, football …

I don't want to be naging

To see my child doing well with the studies

I didn't complete my education

I have success in my examinations

My spouse have got a job

My relaive has pased away

I delivered a child

still there are lot of problems in this world which …

Because I am unemployed

Poverty is making me to be unhappy

Small income

My business activities is doing well as I have …

I am suffered with Diabates

I trust God

As I live in a peace country and the power to do …

To get all my daily needs like food

To have my family

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

5%

8%

9%

Thank You For Your Attention.

Our Curiosity Is All Yours.


Tanzania Opinion Polls-Conducted by Synovate

Documents

Transcript of Tanzania Opinion Polls-Conducted by Synovate