Taking a Walk: Modeling Pedestrians and Bicycles at the Street Level 15th TRB National...

Taking a Walk:

Modeling Pedestrians and Bicycles at the Street Level

15th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

May 17-21

Atlantic City, NJ

15th TRB Nat ional Transportat ion Planning Applicat ions Conference May 17-21 At lant ic City, NJ

Where We’ve Been

• Established practice that modeling and estimating active transportation demand requires a fine grained network and detailed zonal structure


Case Studies

• 200 unit subdivisions in Southern New Castle County– Suburban

Middletown• CASE STUDIES 1 & 2

– Urban Middletown• CASE STUDIES 3 & 4


Model Results for Study Area Trips

Peninsula Model

Micro Model Parcel Model130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

Suburban GridSuburban Cul-de-sacUrban GridUrban Cul-de-sac

Dai

ly W

alki

ng T

rips

with

in S

tudy

Are

a


DelDOT Peninsula Model Background

Background:• Delaware plus

Maryland’s “Eastern Shore”

• Population of 1.2 Million

• 5,375 sq. miles


Developed LUTSAM to Streamline Process

Simulation

Travel Model

GIS

Community Design Scenarios

3-D Image Models

Peak Hour TravelAuto, Bus, Bike, & Ped

Analysis & Visualization

Performance Measures


Opportunities for Refinement

• Enhanced network and zonal structure

• Representation of biking and walking

• Inclusion of accessibility


Enhanced Network and Zonal Structure

• Converted Model Network to Geodatabase– Routable Centerline File– RIMS Database– GIS file that can be maintained annually– Detailed information such as sidewalks, shoulder

width, street width• Traffic Analysis Zone Resolutions

– Standard (973 Zones)– Census Block (24,115 Census Blocks)– Tax Parcel (403,791 Tax Parcels)

• Resolution specified by TAZ


Zonal Structure

PENINSULA

CENSUS BLOCK

TAX PARCEL


Travel Network – New Castle County

PENINSULA

CENSUS BLOCK

TAX PARCEL


Travel Network – Suburban Area

PENINSULA

CENSUS BLOCK

TAX PARCEL


Destinations Available within 0.25 Miles

PENINSULA1 INTRAZONAL

CENSUS BLOCK57 CENSUS BLOCKS

TAX PARCEL1257 PARCELS


• Annual Survey Background

– Delaware Travel Monitoring System (DTMS)

– Annual polling since 1997

– Survey conducted by University of Delaware’s

Center for Applied Demography and Survey

Research (CADSR)

– Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing Over

60,000 survey trips in comprehensive database

Representation of Biking and Walking


• Enhanced DTMS survey in 2012– Changes included introducing a new set

of walking, bicycling, and transit specific questions

– Prompted respondent to report recreational trips

– Surveyed preference on comfort with walking or bicycling, maximum distance willing to use either mode



• Improved Results– Number of reported walk and bike trips

increased

Trip Mode 2010 2011 2012* 2013* 2014*

Walk 1% 3% 12% 10% 11%

Bike 0% 0% 1% 1% 1%

Bus 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Car 98% 95% 86% 89% 86%

*enhanced DTMS survey year



Improved Survey Results

0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.000.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Mode ShareAll trips

CAR WALK

DISTANCE (MI)

SHAR

E



0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.000.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Mode shareHBW

CAR WALK

DISTANCE (MI)

SHAR

E



0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.000.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

HBR TRIPS SHARE

CAR WALK

DISTANCE (MI)

SHAR

E


Influence of Accessibility on Travel Mode

• What level of accessibility influences travel mode the most?– 1 mile– 0.5 miles– 0.25 miles


1 Mile Accessibility (Walk Trips)

1

1 to

250

250

to 5

00

500

to 7

50

750

to 1

000

1000

to 1

250

1250

to 1

500

1500

to o

ther

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

0.000.36

0.65

1.30

0.550.75

2.00

Avg Trips/Person by 1mi Accessibility (Walk, HBW+HBSHOP)

Number of Destinations

Trip

Rat

e


0.5 Mile Accessibility (Walk Trips)

1

1 to

50

50 to

100

100

to 1

50

150

to 2

00

200

to 2

50

250

to 3

00

300

to o

ther

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

0.15 0.32 0.370.73 0.85 0.86

0.50

Avg Trips/Person by .50mi Accessibility(Walk, HBW+HBSHOP)


Trip

Rat

e


0.25 Mile Accessibility (Walk Trips)

1

1 to

25

25 to

50

50 to

75

75 to

100

100

to 1

25

125

to 1

50

150

to o

ther

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

0.200.48

0.76 0.801.00

1.44

2.00

Avg Trips/Person by .25mi Accessibility(Walk, HBW+HBSHOP)


Trip

Rat

e


0.25 Mile Accessibility (Walk)

0 25 50 75 100 125 1500.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

f(x) = 0.0108661422238065 x + 0.138812747214144

Trips/Person by AccessibilityWalk, HBW+HBSHOP (.25 MI)


Trip

Rat

e


Next Steps

• Develop hybrid model that includes accessibility, distance, and presence of infrastructure (Late Summer 2015)

• Streamline inclusion in statewide model (Early Fall 2015)

• Sensitivity testing (Late Fall 2015)


Conclusions

• Revised travel network, improved travel survey, and accessibility-based model will greatly enhance the ability to estimate active transportation at the street level

• Revised process will streamline the ability to quickly provide results to decision makers


Questions?

Scott Thompson-Graves724-779-7940

[email protected]

Mike DuRoss302-760-2110

[email protected]

Li Li703-293-7423

[email protected]

Dave Racca302-831-1698

[email protected]

Ashley Tracy724-779-7940

[email protected]

Taking a Walk: Modeling Pedestrians and Bicycles at the Street Level 15th TRB National...

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