Alternative Futures of Small Island Society

in the Era of Globalization: A Case from Republic of Palau

Takashi MitaPh. D. Candidate in Political Science

University of Hawai‘i at Manoa

Republic of Palau

(Belau, 帛琉 )

• Population =19,129 Population =19,129 (C(Census 2000)ensus 2000)

• Size = 190 sq. mi.Size = 190 sq. mi.

• Political Status: Political Status:

Freely Associated StatFreely Associated State with US (1994)e with US (1994)

• Per capita GDP = USPer capita GDP = US$6,000$6,000

• Major Income SourceMajor Income Sources: Compact Money frs: Compact Money from US, Tourismom US, Tourism

Global Dynamics Observed in Palau

• Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)

• Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)

• Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)

• International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)

• Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)

Futures Studies

• Trend Analysis (Present and Past)

• Forecasting Futures Based on Trend

• Not Prediction, but Forecasting

• Deductive Forecasting Method

• Alternative Futures Model

• Scenario Making

Factors of Changes (Past and Present)

• Colonial Development

• Decolonization Process

• Global Dynamics

Factors of Changes (Future)– Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)– Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)– Investment (Increase? Decrease?)– End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)

– Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)

Guest Workers from PhilippinesTourists from Taiwan

Factors of Changes (Future)– Compact Road– Capital Relocation– US Military Bases?– Change of Lifestyle

New Capitol BuildingCircle Island 53-mile Compact Road

Alternative Futures Models

1. Continued Growth Model

2. Collapsed Society Model

3. Disciplined Society Model

4. Transformational Society Model

1. Continued Growth Model– external sources of income (compact money, aid)

– foreign investment, tourists, guest workers

– mass tourism, mass production, imported goods

– westernization of culture

• Modernization Theory

• Neo-Liberal Globalization Discorse

(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)

Alternative Futures Scenarios(deductive forecasting)

Alternative Futures Scenarios(deductive forecasting)

2. Collapse Model– stagnation of external sources of income

– end of compact money, aid

– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists

– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken– loss of indigenous culture

(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)

Alternative Futures Scenarios(deductive forecasting)

3. Disciplined Society Model– endogenous development– indigenous networks and lifestyles– indigenous political and social norms– Palauan participation in the labor force

• Sustainable Development

• Human Development

• Endogenous Development

(eg. Yap State in FSM)

Alternative Futures Scenarios(deductive forecasting)

4. Transformational Society Model– Reconsideration of nation-state 　→　 Confederation?– New industries? New economic netowork?– Fewer bureaucrats?– Palauan returnees as new labor power?– Creation of regional identity?

(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)

Alternative Future Models of Palau

imageframework

of statepoliticalRegime

governmentfinance

localgovernment

economygeneral

foreigninvestment

laborpower

tourismfood

generalfisheries agriculture culture

ContinuedGrowth

naion state,FreeAssociationwith US

democracy foreign aid decentralization ofgovernment tolocaljurisdictions

economicgrowth byforeigninvestment

deregulationof foreigninvestmentlaws

dependencyon foreignlabors

masstourism

dependencyon importedfood

massfisheries,modernfisheries

import ofagriculturalproducts

westernization of culureand values

◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ○ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎ ◎

Collapse

Limitation ofnation state

corruptedgovernment

end ofcompactmoney,financialcollapse

inefficiency,high cost,collapse ordisfunction

stagnant ofinvestment,over-development,wealth leakage,collapse of

stagnation andwithdrawal offoreigninvestment

unable toemploy foreignworkersbecause ofshortage ofmoney

decreaseof tourists

unable topurchaseimportedfood

overfishing,depletion ofresources

unable topurchaseimportedproducts

clash andloss ofculture,value,identity

○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○

DisciplinedSociety

Pre-nationstate, pre-colonial

traditionalpolitics

income byordinary tax,austerity

revival ofvillage,centralizationunder nationalgov

self-sufficiency,subsistence

regulaton labor byPalauans

control ofincomingvisitors

subsistence,self-sufficiency

small-scalefisheries,self-consumption

subsistence,self-sufficiency,domesticproduction

restoration ofPalauantraditionalculture

○ ○ ◎ ○ ○

Trans-formationalSociety

confederation

new regime cut of costbyconfederation

assigningfunction tostates underloose tie

neweconomicnetworkamongPacific Island

neweconomicnetwork

Palauanreturnees asnew laborpower

eco-tourism,culturaltourism

industrialization, export

aquaculture,aquafarming,breeding

export ofvalue addedproducts

creation ofregionalcolture andidentity

○◎ i ndi cates that we have st rong t rend today○ i ndi cates that we have some t rend today

Alternative Futures of Palau

Palauan Visions of Futures

Visions Leaders– President Remengesau Jr.

• continued growth + disciplined society

– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai• disciplined society + concerned on collapse

– Legislators• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned

on collapse

– Economic Leaders• continued growth + disciplined society

Palauan Visions of Futures (Visions of Ordinary People)Preferred Future Political Status

Political Status - Future

TotalIndependence

29%

TerritorialStatus10%

Other1%

FreeAssociation

60%

Palauan Visions of Futures (Visions of Ordinary People)

Preferred Future Political Framework

Others1.1%

ForeignControl

2.2%Confederation

9.9%

Traditional Leaders

26.4%

ElectedLeaders60.4%

Growth w/ForeignMoney33.0%

Self-sufficiency

33.0%

RegionalCooperation

17.6%

Subsistence13.2%

Others3.3%

Palauan Visions of Futures (Visions of Ordinary People)

Preferred Economic Future

Palauan Visions of Futures (Visions of Ordinary People)

Attitude toward foreign guest workers

More workers13.2%

Status quo16.5%

FewerWorkers

70.3%

Conclusion

• Limitation of Continued Growth Model

• Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society

• Seeking Disciplined Society

• Potential of Transformation Model

• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)

• (2001, 2002 Estimate)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

(US$)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

(Millio

n U

S$)

Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094

Total GDP 76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)

.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140US$million（ ）

Exports ($M) Imports ($M)

Exports ($M) 26.9 17.7 12.6 13.9 13.9 11.8 11.1 11.7 12.2 9.0 9.0 12.3

Imports ($M) 38.1 42.2 44.2 60.4 72.4 69.3 65.9 104.1 123.7 95.7 86.2 108.8

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003