[T6] iRAP Case Study 1 Peoples Republic of China

7/30/2019 [T6] iRAP Case Study 1 Peoples Republic of China

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45021-002: Anhui Intermodal SustainableTransport Development Project

ADB Training Course

November 2012


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A World Free of High Risk Roads

Step Date

Relationship building and training (RIOH and iRAP) 2008-2010

Anhui mission with ADB to establish road network forassessment

Oct 2012

GRSF (Bloomberg) grant to iRAP signed Nov 2012

iRAP engage RIOH to lead in-country activities Nov 2012

Data collection (road survey, crash data, economics) andcoding by RIOH and AHAB

Dec 2012

Star Ratings, Safer Roads Investment Plan Jan-Feb 2012

Research and development Oct-Mar 2012

Reporting March 2012

Assessing Inception Report designs Oct-2012

45021-002: Anhui Intermodal SustainableTransport Development Project


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Progress

1. We have a baseline risk assessment2. We have an economic assessment

3. Star Rating feasibility road designs and suggestions for

improvement

4. Setting performance indicators for Anhui roads in DesignMonitoring Framework

5. Star Rating preliminary and detailed designs

6. Post construction Star Ratings


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Example Road: G206 Dongliu to Yaodu

Upgrade to Class 1 Length: 16.6km

Traffic: 6,031 pcu(27,776 pcu in 2030)

85th % speeds = 84km/h;av speeds = 69km/h

Estimated death rate: 0.11deaths per km


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Video of road

1:45 NMV

2:20 Peds

3:00 overtaking

30:35 - int

31:25 - overtaking


7/36A World Free of High Risk Roads

Road name Vertical alignment

Section Road condition and skid resistance

Carriageway Sidewalk provision (left and right)

Distance Land use (left and right)

Length Parking (side friction)

Latitude Pedestrian crossing facility (and quality)

Longitude Pedestrian footpaths

Landmark Facilities for bicycles

Vehicle flows Pedestrian fencing

Motorcycle flows Facilities for motorised two wheelers

Bicycle flows Lighting

Pedestrian flows Service road

Area type Property access density

Number of lanes for use by through traffic Roadside severity (left and right)

Speed Intersection type (and quality and use)

Lane widths for lanes serving through traffic Median type

Paved shoulder width Major upgrade cost

Unpaved shoulder width Comments

Centreline and shoulder rumble strips Roadworks

Curvature Overtaking demand

Quality of curve Delineation



Risk factors(or Crash Modification Factors)

Examples:

Lynham, D. (TRL), 2012, Development of risk models forthe road assessment programme (www.trl.co.uk)

Crash Modification Factors Clearinghouse(www.cmfclearinghouse.org) (US DOT)

National Cooperative Highway Research Program

(NCHRP), Transportation Research Board (TRB),(2009) Highway Safety Manual Knowledge Base

Elvik, R., Hoye, A., Vaa, T. and Sorensen, M (2009) TheHandbook of Road Safety Measures, 2nd ed, EmeraldGroup, United Kingdom

Austroads (2002-07) Road Safety Risk Assessment Project McMahon, K. and Dahdah. S. (2008). The True Cost of

Road Crashes: Valuing life and the cost of a serious injury.http://www.irap.org

MIROS, Accident Characteristics of Injured Motorcyclists inRoad Crashes in Malaysia
http://www.trl.co.uk/http://www.cmfclearinghouse.org/http://www.cmfclearinghouse.org/collateral/HSM_knowledge_document.pdfhttp://www.irap.org/http://www.irap.org/http://www.cmfclearinghouse.org/collateral/HSM_knowledge_document.pdfhttp://www.cmfclearinghouse.org/http://www.trl.co.uk/



Example CMF

Horizontal curvature

Very sharp6.0

Curve relativerisk factors:

Sharp3.5

Moderate2.2

Straight1.0

Source: ARRB and Austroads



Example CMF

Roadside severity

Source: Stigsson ~45% higher than deformable object



Equations in ViDA



VEHICLEOCCUPANTS

5

4

3

2

1



VEHICLE

OCCUPANTS

MOTORCYCLISTS PEDESTRIANS BICYCLISTS



Baseline Star Ratings

STAR RATINGSVEHICLE

OCCUPANTSMOTORCYCLISTS BICYCLISTS PEDESTRIANS

5 0% 0% 0% 0%

4 0% 0% 0% 0%

3 31% 13% 0% 0%

2 64% 26% 39% 8%

1 6% 61% 28% 93%



Value of human life

iRAP rule of thumb: 70 x GDP per capita Serious injury: 0.25 x 70 x GDP per capita

Deaths:serious injuries: 1:10

On this basis for China

Human life: 70 x 5,715 = $400,050

Serious injury: 0.25 x 70 x 5,715 = $100,013

RIOH research indicates value of human life:RMB 3,009,369 ($476,360)

Source: McMahon, K. and Dahdah. S. (2008). The True Cost of Road Crashes:

Valuing life and the cost of a serious injury. http://www.irap.org
http://www.irap.org/http://www.irap.org/



Cost of deaths and serious injurieson G206 Dongliu to Yaodu

Deaths =

2.3 x RMB 3,009,369 = RMB 6.8 million per year

Serious injuries =

23 x RMB 3,009,369 x 0.25 = 16.9 million per year

Total cost =RMB 23.7 million per year



What can we do to improve the StarRatings (and reduce economic costs?)



Countermeasure proposals



Improve curve [email protected]


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Construct [email protected]


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Construct roundabout@1293km


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LIGHTING

EXTRA LANES EXTRA LANES (PEDS)

INCREASED SPEED

(ASSUME 90KM/H)

FOOTPATH &

BICYCLE PATH

FIXED OBJECTS

MEDIANPAVED SHOULDER

INTERSECTIONS?

ALIGNMENT?

PAVEMENT DELINEATION

CHANGES IN LAND

USE?

PEDESTRIANMOVEMENTS


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STAR RATING BASELINE PROPOSED

5 0% 0%

4 0% 0%3 31% 34%

2 64% 63%

1 6% 4%

Vehicle occupants

Key assumptions: traffic, pedestrian and bicycle flows same as baseline; 85th % speeds = 90km/h;alignment same as baseline; intersection and property access locations and layout same as baseline.Street lighting poles are non-frangible; medians are not traversable with non-frangible trees;passenger-side paved shoulders are wide, driver-side are narrow.


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Motorcyclists


5 0% 0%

4 0% 0%3 13% 11%

2 26% 85%

1 61% 5%


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Bicyclists


5 0% 0%

4 0% 42%

3 0% 20%

2 39% 0%

1 28% 0%

NOT RATED 34% 39%


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Bicyclists

BASELINE PROPOSED


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Pedestrians


5 0% 0%

4 0% 0%3 0% 0%

2 8% 97%

1 93% 4%


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Economic assessment

ANNUALDEATHS AND

SERIOUS INJURIES

ECONOMIC

COST

BASELINE 25 RMB 24 m

* Traffic volumes based on Inception Report forecasts. No adjustments have been made to pedestrianand bicyclist activity at this stage.

PROPOSED (2030 TRAFFIC) * 59 RMB 56 m

CHANGE +137% +137%

PROPOSED (CURRENT TRAFFIC) 16 RMB 16 m

CHANGE -34% -34%


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Additional countermeasures


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Next Steps

1. We have a baseline risk assessment2. We have an economic assessment

3. Star Rating feasibility road designs and suggestions for

improvement

4. Setting performance indicators for Anhui roads in DesignMonitoring Framework

5. Star Rating preliminary and detailed designs

6. Post construction Star Ratings

[T6] iRAP Case Study 1 Peoples Republic of China

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