Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'
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Forecasting & Inventory Management – am I missing out? Szabolcs Kiss – National Instruments 7 th European 3PL Summit 24-25 th November, 2009 Brussels
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Szabolcs Kiss, Planning Mgr - Europe, Supply Chain Mgr from National Instruments speaks on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?' at the 7th European 3PL Summit in Brussels, November 25th 2009. To download all of the slides from the conference for free visit www.3PLsummit.com/eu_2009ppts
Transcript of Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'
Forecasting & Inventory Management
– am I missing out?– am I missing out?
Szabolcs Kiss – National Instruments7th European 3PL Summit
24-25th November, 2009
Brussels
My offer for the next 15 minutes
1. Some theory
– Conclusion #1
2. Some practice
– Conclusion #2
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– Conclusion #2
3. One Personal Insight
– Conclusion #3
1.1 Theory – Quantitative Forecasting
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• In stable conditions
• For short term forecast
• Work from historical records
1.2.1 Theory – Market Research
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Source: The European 3PL Market – A brief analysis of eyefortransport’s recent survey – August 2009
1.2.2 Theory – Qualitative Forecasting
Sales
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R&D
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Conclusion #1
“Forecasts are (almost) always wrong!”
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“Examine how some of the hardest hit industries like
retail, automotive, and construction are using
accurate forecasting to insulate their supply chain
for further risk.”
“Learn how to accurately predict the impact of
changing demand on key performance indicators…”
Recommended Reading #1
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Even a tail can be too long…
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Recommended Reading #2
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2.1 Practice – New Product
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2.2 Practice – Mature Product
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Conclusion #2
Combination of theory & practice doesn’t help you
out either…
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“Hear 2 world class manufacturers and retailers
delve into the forecasting and inventory
management practices that are saving costing
their companies a fortune.”
3. Why? Why? Why?
VALUES ATTITUDE BEHAVIOUR
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VALUESOur beliefs: what is important to us
ATTITUDEOur pre-disposition to a
product or idea
BEHAVIOURWhat we doHow we act
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Conclusion #3
If you would like to have more predictability in your
life (forecast):
1. Stop blaming their behaviour;
2. Consider changing your attitude;
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VALUESVALUES
Our beliefs: what is important to us
ATTITUDEOur pre-disposition to a product or idea or
people
BEHAVIOURWhat we doHow we act
2. Consider changing your attitude;
3. And start exploring & defining & adjusting your
core values!
