Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

20
Forecasting & Inventory Management am I missing out? Szabolcs Kiss – National Instruments 7 th European 3PL Summit 24-25 th November, 2009 Brussels

description

Szabolcs Kiss, Planning Mgr - Europe, Supply Chain Mgr from National Instruments speaks on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?' at the 7th European 3PL Summit in Brussels, November 25th 2009. To download all of the slides from the conference for free visit www.3PLsummit.com/eu_2009ppts

Transcript of Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

Page 1: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

Forecasting & Inventory Management

– am I missing out?– am I missing out?

Szabolcs Kiss – National Instruments7th European 3PL Summit

24-25th November, 2009

Brussels

Page 2: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

My offer for the next 15 minutes

1. Some theory

– Conclusion #1

2. Some practice

– Conclusion #2

National Instruments Confidential 2

– Conclusion #2

3. One Personal Insight

– Conclusion #3

Page 3: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

1.1 Theory – Quantitative Forecasting

National Instruments Confidential 3

• In stable conditions

• For short term forecast

• Work from historical records

Page 4: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

1.2.1 Theory – Market Research

National Instruments Confidential 4

Source: The European 3PL Market – A brief analysis of eyefortransport’s recent survey – August 2009

Page 5: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

1.2.2 Theory – Qualitative Forecasting

Sales

MfgMktg

National Instruments Confidential 5

Mfg

R&D

Mktg

Page 6: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

Conclusion #1

“Forecasts are (almost) always wrong!”

National Instruments Confidential 6

“Examine how some of the hardest hit industries like

retail, automotive, and construction are using

accurate forecasting to insulate their supply chain

for further risk.”

“Learn how to accurately predict the impact of

changing demand on key performance indicators…”

Page 7: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

Recommended Reading #1

National Instruments Confidential 7

Page 8: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

Even a tail can be too long…

National Instruments Confidential 8

Page 9: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

National Instruments Confidential 9

Page 10: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

Recommended Reading #2

National Instruments Confidential 10

Page 11: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

2.1 Practice – New Product

National Instruments Confidential 11

Page 12: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

2.2 Practice – Mature Product

National Instruments Confidential 12

Page 13: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

Conclusion #2

Combination of theory & practice doesn’t help you

out either…

National Instruments Confidential 13

“Hear 2 world class manufacturers and retailers

delve into the forecasting and inventory

management practices that are saving costing

their companies a fortune.”

Page 14: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

3. Why? Why? Why?

VALUES ATTITUDE BEHAVIOUR

National Instruments Confidential 14

VALUESOur beliefs: what is important to us

ATTITUDEOur pre-disposition to a

product or idea

BEHAVIOURWhat we doHow we act

Page 15: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

National Instruments Confidential 15

Page 16: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

National Instruments Confidential 16

Page 17: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

National Instruments Confidential 17

Page 18: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

National Instruments Confidential 18

Page 19: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

Conclusion #3

If you would like to have more predictability in your

life (forecast):

1. Stop blaming their behaviour;

2. Consider changing your attitude;

National Instruments Confidential 19

VALUESVALUES

Our beliefs: what is important to us

ATTITUDEOur pre-disposition to a product or idea or

people

BEHAVIOURWhat we doHow we act

2. Consider changing your attitude;

3. And start exploring & defining & adjusting your

core values!

Page 20: Szabolcs Kiss, National Instruments on 'Forecasting & Inventory Management - Am I Missing Out?'

Questions? Comments? Concerns?

National Instruments Confidential [email protected]