Systems thinking
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Transcript of Systems thinking
thinking about systems asdynamic, evolving patterns of
interaction and feedback
Sunday, 2 March 14
it is an axiom that influence is both a cause and an effect. nothing is ever influenced in just one direction.
Peter's Axiom
Sunday, 2 March 14
to say that certain events are causally connected is only a
clumsy way of saying they are features of
the same event
Sunday, 2 March 14
every effect has a cause and we can tell which is which.
Jerry Weinberg
The Causation Fallacies
Sunday, 2 March 14
defects lateness
cause effect
?
Sunday, 2 March 14
defects lateness
cause effect
?
Sunday, 2 March 14
Sunday, 2 March 14
Scrum Buses
http://jonjagger.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/scrum-buses.html
Sunday, 2 March 14
feedback
Sunday, 2 March 14
X.o.r.g..o.m.n.c.t.o..i.p.i.i.y.e.d.a.k
valuesP ?
Sunday, 2 March 14
XCourageCommunicationSimplicityFeedback
valuesP
Sunday, 2 March 14
Scrum GuideScrum Teams deliver products iteratively and
incrementally, maximizing opportunities for feedback.
Sprint Review: ... the presentation of the Increment is intended to elicit feedback and foster
collaboration.
"
"Sunday, 2 March 14
just calling it "feedback" doesn't mean that it has actually fed back
Sunday, 2 March 14
the amount of feedback built into living organisms differs by many orders of
magnitude from the amount we build into
man-made systems.John Gall
Sunday, 2 March 14
there is not one living creature that lacks that integrated, total unification through feedback. John Gall
Sunday, 2 March 14
compared to a frog or a salamander, our
biggest manmade systems seem like
simple wind-up toys.John Gall
Sunday, 2 March 14
ignoring feedback merely means that the system will eventually experience a massive unpleasant surprise (rather than a small unpleasant surprise)John Gall
Sunday, 2 March 14
it may look like a crisis, but it's
only the end of an illusion
Sunday, 2 March 14
change
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blood sugar
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is
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is
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is
causes
Hyperglycemia
Sunday, 2 March 14
is
sensespancreas
causes
Hyperglycemia
Sunday, 2 March 14
is
sensespancreas
causes
Hyperglycemia
insulin
causes
Sunday, 2 March 14
is
sensespancreas
senses
liver &muscles
causes
Hyperglycemia
insulin
causes
Sunday, 2 March 14
is
sensespancreas
senses
liver &muscles
causes glycogen
causes
Hyperglycemia
insulin
causes
Sunday, 2 March 14
is
sensespancreas
senses
liver &muscles
causes glycogen
causes
Hyperglycemia
insulin
causes
Sunday, 2 March 14
is
sensespancreas
senses
liver &muscles
causes glycogen
causes
Hyperglycemia
insulin
causes
Hypoglycemia
causes
Sunday, 2 March 14
is
sensespancreas
senses
liver &muscles
causes glycogen
causes
Hyperglycemia
pancreas
senses
insulin
causes
Hypoglycemia
causes
Sunday, 2 March 14
is
sensespancreas
senses
liver &muscles
causes glycogen
causes
Hyperglycemia
pancreas
senses
glucagoncauses
insulin
causes
Hypoglycemia
causes
Sunday, 2 March 14
is
sensespancreas
senses
liver &muscles
causes glycogen
causes
Hyperglycemia
pancreas
senses
glucagoncauses
senses
insulin
causes
Hypoglycemia
causes
Sunday, 2 March 14
is
sensespancreas
senses
liver &muscles
causes glycogen
causes
Hyperglycemia
pancreas
senses
glucagoncauses
sensescauses
insulin
causes
Hypoglycemia
causes
Sunday, 2 March 14
systems tend to opposetheir own proper function.
Henri Louis Le Chatelier
Le Chatelier's Principle
Sunday, 2 March 14
all change can be understood as the effort to maintain some constancy...
...and all constancy as maintained
through change.
Sunday, 2 March 14
the battle over food and territory between two species is only one half of the story... ...the battle is a means or process of generating, maintaining, and stabilizing an ecosystemGregory BatesonSteps to an Ecology of Mind (I think)
Sunday, 2 March 14
evolution is always
co-evolution
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what is involved is not simply survival
of the fittestbut survival of the
fitting-in-est
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slack
Sunday, 2 March 14
moving from 75% to 95% utilization increases variability by 25 times
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flow
utilization 95%75%
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that which optimizes one part
of the system necessarily
undermines the system as a whole.
Sunday, 2 March 14
whole parts>
Sunday, 2 March 14
Pu239
Sunday, 2 March 14
2kg + 3kg == 5kg
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5kg + 5kg ==?
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Sunday, 2 March 14
in medio stats virtus
Sunday, 2 March 14
The Law of Unintended Consequences
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobra_effect
Sunday, 2 March 14
