Syria – Crisis and SolutionsPaul Young CPA, CGAApril 6, 2017

Agenda

• Syria GDP

• Syria Civil War / Natural Gas Pipeline

• Democracy/Syria

• Iran and Syria

• UN Aid to Syria

• Donald Trump / Syria

Overview

• Geopolitical issues are becoming very important for business as they look to make investments around the world

• It is very important to understand the issues facing foreign countries as part of doing business in foreign countries.

Syria GDP – Current State

• Syria’s “gross domestic product (GDP) stood at $60.2 billion in 2010. As of 2016, it was at $27.2 billion at 2010 prices, representing a contrac tion of 50%,” said Dahi, an associate professor at Hampshire College in the United States.

• “If a realistic growth rate is taken into account, total economic loss es shoot up to a staggering 430% or more of GDP at 2010 prices,” Dahi added. “This would put Syria among the outliers in terms of post- World War II civil conflicts in terms of GDP losses.”

Arab Weekly – March 26, 2017

What is fueling the Civil War in Syria

Turkey knowing Syria was a critical piece in its energy strategy, Turkey attempted to persuade Syrian President Bashar Assad to reform this Iranian pipeline and to work with the proposed Qatar-Turkey pipeline, which would ultimately satisfy Turkey and the Gulf Arab nations’ quest for dominance over gas supplies. But after Assad refused Turkey’s proposal, Turkey and its allies became the major architects of Syria’s “civil war.”

Did Democracy have a role in Syria Civil War

• The trouble began in 2011 in the Syrian city of Deraa.

• It began because local people decided to protest after 15 schoolchildren were arrested - and reportedly tortured - for writing anti-government graffiti on a wall.

• When the war first began, the protesters just wanted democracy and greater freedom.

• But once government forces opened fire on peaceful demonstrations, people demanded that President Bashar al-Assad resign. However, he refused to do this which made the protesters extremely angry.

• As the violence got worse, he offered to change some things about the way the country was run, but the protesters didn't believe him.

BBC – April 5, 2017

Iran and Syria

• Iran is in the process of putting together agreements, including economic agreements, with Syria to strengthen its hold, its ports and naval bases there,” he said.

• He added: “There is a need for Russia and other powers to work to avoid the threat that Iran ends up with military, air and naval bases in Syria.

Times of Israel – March 30, 2017

UN Aid/Syria

• Forty-one donors today pledged a combined $6 billion for critical humanitarian programmes in 2017 and another $3.7 billion for 2018 for the people of Syria reeling under a devastating conflict since 2011 at a United Nations-supported conference in the Belgian capital, Brussels.

Canada has provided close to $1B aid -

UN News Service – April 5, 2017

Debate Post – April 5, 2017

Donald Trump / Syria

• CNN – April 6, 2017

Russia has challenged President Donald Trump to set out his strategy on Syria after he declared that an apparent chemical weapons attack had transformed his views on the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Trump, who has previously argued against removing Assad from power, said Wednesday's attack on a rebel-held town in Syria's Idlib province was a "heinous" act that "crossed a lot of lines for me."

Summary

• Too many countries got involved with either ousting Assad or supporting Assad

• Syria is made up with many religious sects. The Shia religion being the strongest

• Syria has port access to Mediterranean Sea

• Oil and Natural Gas are key exports as such Syria provides good access to world market

• Kurds want their own land in areas like Turkey and Syria

• Eliminating a leader can make things worst.