Sustainable Energy IssuesSustainable Energy Issues

1st Central Asian Leadership Programme on

Environment for Sustainable Development 28-30 September 2010, Astana. Kazakhstan

Asian Institute of TechnologyProfessor S. Kumar

kumar@ait.ac.th

Presentation Outline

Energy Resources, Consumption and its impacts

Energy and Sustainable Development

Sustainable energy solutions

2

What is the Role of Energy?

3

Energy System

EnergySource

EnergyCarrier

Equipment

Devices

Services

Source: Pathways to energy and climate change 2050, WBCSD, 2005

As energy is the prime mover of human existence,

5

how have humans used it?

Energy Consumption Trend

Adapt from source: University of Texas

World Primary Energy Consumption, 1984 - 2009

Source: BP, June 2010

8

Regional Primary Energy Consumption Pattern, 2009

Source: BP, June 2010

9Source: Birol, 2007

World Primary Energy Consumption: A Projection

Fuel Shares of World Marketed Energy use 2003, 2015, 2030

It looks like we will continue to consume energy in even greater quantities.

10

Is it true everywhere?

Primary Energy Consumption Per Capita

• Asia Pacific – 32.5%; North America – 27%; Europe – 28%• World total – nearly 11,000 million tonnes of oil equivalent• Population of 6 billion• Large variation between countries and regions

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

12

Electricity Consumption: Developed and Developing Countries

Developed countries Electricity use (kWh/person)

Developing countries

Electricity use (kWh/person)

United States 12,906 China 1,019

Sweden 15,194 India 473

Norway 25,362 Thailand 1,414

United Kingdom 5,759 Philippines 496

Japan 7,579 Viet Nam 339

South Korea 5,597 Sri Lanka 299

Singapore 6,151 Malaysia 2,748

Australia 9,345 Indonesia 379

Source: http://www.nationmaster.com

What would happen if China and India consume like USA?

13

Electricity AccessElectrification Rate (2000-2005), %

33

66

56

20

11

99

99

84

54

54

32

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Nepal

Srilanka

India

Cambodia

Myanmar

Thailand

China

Vietnam

Indonesia

Pakistan

Bangladesh

Electrification Rate, %

Source: Human Development Report, 2007/2008

How much of these resources do we have?

14

Fossil fuel Reserves-to-Production (R/P) ratios at end 2009

Source: BP, June 2010

Energy, so far…

• Biomass to Coal to Petroleum.

• Large variation in energy use. About 1.2 billion people do not have access to modern energy services.

• Fossil Resources play an important role. In the next 20 years, the consumption is expected to increase by more than 50%.

• R/P ratio• For oil it is about 40 years, and has remained stable over the last 30 years• For natural gas, it is about 60-70 years• For coal it is about 200-300 years

So, can this continue?…..

• Population, level of energy consumption and current economic growth levels

• Developed economies: Maintain and uphold current living pattern

• Rest of the developing world – energy access, and aspirations

• Green house gas emissions and climate change

• What about future generations – Sustainable Development

Sustainable energy: It is the provision of energy such that it meets the needs of the present without

compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.

So, Increased fossil fuel use emits carbon dioxide,

which leads to Green House Effect, which causes Global Warming

18

The Evidence and the Predictions ….

How are GHGs Produced ?

CarbonHydrogen

These conversions produce Heat industries, buildings, electricity, transportationElectricityElectricity the most versatile energy carrier

CarbonHydrogenOxygen

CarbonHydrogen

Hydrogen + oxygen to give Water

Carbon + oxygen to give Carbon-di-oxide

HEAT

CO2 Variations: Past and Present

Source: http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.pngSource: WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, November 2006

Climate Change: Temperature variations (Past and Predicted)

Source: http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png

How Much CO2 Do We Produce ?

Source: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, www.mnp.nl

= about 7 PgC

Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70 %

Total GHG emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1970 1980 1990 2000 2004

GtCO2-eq/yr

Source: Mitigation of Climate Change, IPCC Working Group III contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report, May 2007

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)

Source: Mitigation of Climate Change, IPCC Working Group III contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report, May 2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000

A1F

1

A2

A1B

A1T B

1

B2

95th

75th

med

ian

25th 5th

A2

A1F

1

B2

A1B

A1T B

1

95th

75th

med

ian

25th 5th

25-90% increase of GHG emissions in 2030 relative to 2000

GtC

O2e

q/y

r

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000

A1F

1 A2

A1B A1T B

1B

295

th75

thm

edia

n25

th 5th A2

A1F

1B

2A

1B A1T B

195

th75

thm

edia

n25

th 5th

F-Gases

N2O

CH4

CO2

So, is our energy consumption path sustainable?

25

Sustainable Energy

“Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”

The Brundtland Report, Our Common Future, 1987

It emphasizes

Well-being of present and future generations

Maintaining a healthy environment without increasing the use of natural resources beyond the capacity of the environment to supply them indefinitely

Consumption of non renewable resources has increased dramatically. So, there is a danger that future generations may not have access to such resources.

Planet earth is basically a closed system, except, say, for radiation exchanges. So, every degradation (due to consumption) needs to be carefully considered.

Why is it defined so? And what does it mean ?

Energy’s Link with 3 pillars of SD

Social

Energy disparities

Energy affordability

Energy accessibility

Environmental Global climate change Atmospheric pollution Waste generation

and management

Economic

Energy production, supply and use

Energy price, taxation and subsidies

Intensities of sector wise end-use (energy intensities)

Energy security

- Poverty

- Gender disparity

- Population

- Under nutrition

and food

“1.5-2 billion people are without access to electricity”

Energy and social linkages

- Health- Acidification

- Climate change- Land degradation

“Energy sector emissions contribute the majority of global greenhouse gases”

Source: Birol, 2007

Energy and environment

- Investment requirement

of Energy

- Foreign exchange impacts on Energy import

“The search for new sources of finance has led to a drive for privatisation in the energy sector to attract private capital”

Source: Birol, 2007

Energy and economy

Sustainable energy options

Rational use of non renewable energy resources

Natural gas, oil and coal

Use of renewable energy resources

Solar energy – thermal and photovoltaics

Wind

Biomass

Micro hydro

Hydrogen

Energy efficiency Electricity, industries, transport and residential sector Cogeneration

solar transport …

These simple panels …

entertain us …Light our streets…

brighten our huts …

help in health care…

An example: What solar energy can do …

WIND PV

Source: REN21 (update), 2009

Global Wind and PV growth

Source: International Energy Star Program

Energy efficiency

1 unit saved in demand side is 3-5 units saved in supply side

Output (5)Primary fuel(100) Electricity (35) Electricity (30)

Efficiency of power plant 35%

Output (24)Primary fuel(100) Electricity (35) Electricity (30)

Efficiency of end use device: 17%

Efficiency of end use device: 80%

Energy efficiency

Energy conservation and efficiency in Buildings (Residential and commercial sector): Experience at AIT

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Jan Feb Mar Ap May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MonthE

lect

rici

ty C

onsu

mpt

ion(

kWh)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Ele

ctri

city

Bill

(Bah

t)

Electricity bill (Baht), 2008

Electricity bill (Baht), 2007

Electricity Consumption (kWh), 2007

Electricity Consumption (kWh), 2008

• Replacing fluorescent with CFLs• Reducing lamps with efficient reflectors• Use of pull switches• Use of sensors

• Payback period < 1 year• Illuminance better and above norms

Improving efficiency of fossil fuel based systems

Promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency

Encouraging greater international co-operation in technology procurement

Adopting policies and mechanism to increase access to energy services

Building capacity among stakeholders

Advancing innovation

Creating market framework conditions to encourage competitiveness in energy market

Behavioral change

Sustainable energy practices

Energy assist us in getting our things done

Our morning coffee

Hot water for our bath

Taking us to work

lighting, computers, printers,

etc

“You name it, without energy, nothing is possible.”

“Water is life”. However, to pump water, treat it, etc, you need energy.

But, what we need is the rational use of energy resources.

A last word …..

SUMMARY

Fossil fuel use results in increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere causing climate change impacts. Addressing climate change due to fossil fuel use is to mitigate and adapt. Mitigation is by reducing fossil fuel use, increasing efficiency and increasing renewable energy use.

Energy consumption is highly skewed among the countries. Resource availability is not widespread. Fossil fuel consumption is increasing. Access to modern energy is still a major problem in many developing countries.

For sustainability, a number of options are available. This essentially includes use of more renewable energy resources, improving efficiency and adapting lifestyles.

Resource sustainability explained

No Yes!

S. Kumar, kumar@ait.ac.th

“This is the only world we have”