Surge Height (NAWIPS)5.4 feet

Impact (Inundation)4 feet

TWL – (MHHW – MSL)8 – (4-0)=4

MDL web pages – point forecasts• ETSS - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/• ESTOFS - http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/

MDL web pages – point forecasts• ETSS - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/• ESTOFS - http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/

Surge Models• ETSS – Extratropical Storm Surge Model – NWS MDL– Extratropical version of SLOSH– GFS winds– Available +0530 after synoptic time

• ESTOFS – Extratropical Surge Tide Operational Forecast System– NOS CSDL– ADCIRC based– GFS winds– Available +0620 after synoptic time

NAWIPS Displays• GRID– Storm_surge• etss_conus• etss_ak• estofs_gm• estofs_ne• estofs_pr• estofs_se

YYMMDD_HH00

YYMMDD_HH00 surge_hght SURGE_CONTOURS SURGE_GRID_COLOR

surge_hght SURGE_CONTOURStide_hght SURGE_GRID_COLOR total_water_lvl

STORM SURGE - An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a tropical cyclone or other intense storm and whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the storm. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomical tide from the observed storm tide.

NWSI 10-604

NAWIPS Displays

SPFs• surge_hght_gfs_NE.spf• surge_hght_mid_atl.spf

NAWIPS Displays - ETSS

ETSSMid LIS

separation

3.0 ft - 8.2ft

NAWIPS Displays - ESTOFS

NAWIPS Displays - ESTOFS

13.7 ft

Super Storm Sandy• Shadow NHC HSU Jamie Rhome• Provide input when needed– Take part in briefings (NYC focus) – NYC OEM– Monitor guidance (GFS, Surge Models, psurge)– Talking points for media briefings (Dr. Uccellini)– Coordinate with ER ROC, WFO Upton

• NHC “recommends” surge values in statements– Values in AGL (MHHW) and NOT Storm Surge• Surrogate for inundation

Super Storm Sandy• 8 PM Sat 27 Oct

– LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

• 11 PM Sat 27 Oct– LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

• 2 AM Sun 28 Oct– LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY...5 TO 10 FT

• 5 AM Sun 28 Oct– LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY...5 TO 10 FT

• 8 AM Sun 28 Oct– LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR...6

TO 11 FT– ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING

TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR...

NHC Public Advisory - 0800 28 OCT...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-

ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL…

...STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY...3 TO 5 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.