SURFACE WATER HSURFACE WATER HYDROLOGY OF … water hydrology of the... · DPIPWE (2010). Surface...
Transcript of SURFACE WATER HSURFACE WATER HYDROLOGY OF … water hydrology of the... · DPIPWE (2010). Surface...
SURFACE WATER HYDROLOGY OF THESURFACE WATER HYDROLOGY OF THERINGAROOMA RIVER CATCHMENT
Bryce GrahamDepartment of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Ringarooma catchmentgCatchment area of ~922 km2
Originates in Mt Maurice
Major upper catchment inputsfrom Dorest, New, Cascade, Weld, Frome , Wyniford ,Maurice and Ledgerwood
Minor Tributary input from Amber, Ruby & Marsh Creeks, y
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Ringarooma catchment Rainfall and Evaporation
Rainfall Range 600 to 1800mmRainfall Range 600 to 1800mm
Mean Annual Rainfall is 1100 mm
i h i iHighest regions occur in Dorsetupper reaches of Ringaroomaand Cascade catchmentsand Cascade catchments
~67% of region lies within>=1100 mm
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Ringarooma catchment Rainfall and Evaporation
5 year moving average indicatesaverage indicates a general decreasingrainfall trend
Last 15 years, 10 years have beenyears have beenbelow AAR of 1100mm
Evaporation remainedconstant ~ 1000mmPer year.
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Ringarooma catchment Rainfall and Evaporation
Distinct seasonalpattern throughoutthe catchment
Rainfall generallyRainfall generally exceeds evaporation during the months ofgApril to September
North of the catchmentreceives less rainfall than southern regionthan southern region
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Ringarooma Stream Flow MonitoringFlow Monitoring
Majority of historical sitesrecords are for short periodsrecords are for short periods
Moorina site only long termsite suitable for historical Flow analysis
Cascade site only other site with >10 yrs record.with 10 yrs record.
2 new sites at Ledgerwoodand Branxholm installed 2008
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Stream Flow CharacteristicsStream Flow Characteristics
Ri Ri @ C d Ri /Statistic
Ringarooma River@ Moorina
Cascade River u/s Cascade Dam
Annual Ave Flow (ML/Day) 741 52( / y)
Annual Ave Volume (ML) 270643 18924
Mi i A l A V l (ML) 128235 11974Minimum Annual Ave Volume (ML) 128235 11974
Maximum Annual Ave Volume (ML) 398861 29500
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Stream Flow Characteristics Ringarooma @ Moorina Annual Yield (ML)Ringarooma @ Moorina Annual Yield (ML)
450000
Ringarooma @ Moorina Annual Yield (ML)
350000
400000
450000
Ringarooma @ Moorina Annual Yield (ML)
Annual Average (ML)
250000
300000
ield
(ML)
mate
150000
200000
Ann
ual Yi
Esti
0
50000
100000
0
Year
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Rainfall Reminder
Text
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Stream Flow Characteristics Ringarooma @ Moorina Monthly Volume (ML)Ringarooma @ Moorina Monthly Volume (ML)
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Stream Flow Characteristics Flow Duration
Flow duration curve of the monthly mean flow at Ringarooma River @ Moorina
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Stream Flow Characteristics Floodingg
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Stream Flow Characteristics Flooding
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Estimating flow forungauged areasungauged areas
Only 3 current gauges
Cover Ledgerwood and Ringarooma, no other areag
Estimates required ford hun‐gauged catchments
Hydrological model allowsHydrological model allowsestimates of yields in un‐gauged catchments
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RingaroomaH d l i l M d lHydrological Model
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Hydrological Model Calibration1Poor, R2<0.65; Fair, 0.65<R2<0.70; Good, R2>0.70
Calibration Period (Year)
Coefficient of Determination (R2)
Performance Rating
1978 2009 0 83 G d1978 – 2009 0.83 Good2009 0.93 Good2005 0.89 Good1995 0 83 Good1995 0.83 Good1985 0.77 Good
Poor R2<0 65;Poor, R2<0.65; Fair, 0.65<R2<0.70; Good, R2>0.70
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Modelled Yields @ Moorina GaugeModelled Yields @ Moorina Gauge
Gauged Annual Average Flow (ML)
Modelled Current Annual Average Flow @ Moorina (ML)
Last 10 yrs average
252461 237365
Last 10 yrs 257637 231837
ymedian
257637 231837
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Modelled Catchment Yields
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Distribution of Yields in the Ringarooma Catchment
Specific Yields (ML/km2)
Area (km2) Summer Winter Annual
Ringarooma Catchment 922 89 360 449
Wyniford 61 103 359 461
Weld 51 164 576 740
Cascade 39 89 384 473
Legerwood 60 92 466 558
Dorset 120 144 566 709
Upper Ringarooma 146 131 613 744
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Climate Changeg
Two major projects for Tasmania to establish potential impact of Climate Change on water resourcesof Climate Change on water resources.
CSIRO Tasmanian Sustainable Yields Project, released jDecember 2009 and
ACE CRC Cli F f T i P j d lACE CRC Climate Futures for Tasmania Project, staged release of reports started, Water and catchments in final review.
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Climate Changeg
CSIRO Tasmanian Sustainable Yields Project
The sustainable yields project modelled four climate impact scenarios across the Ringarooma catchment. The main gobjective of this scenario modelling was to estimate changes in flows in river systems. The four scenarios modelled were:
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Climate Changeg
Scenario A: historical climate (1 January 1924 to 31 December 2007) and current development2007) and current development
Scenario B: recent climate (data from 1 January 1997 to 31 ( yDecember 2007 were concatenated to make an 84‐year sequence) and current development
Scenario C: future climate (84‐year sequence scaled for ~2030 conditions) and current developmentconditions) and current development
Scenario D: future climate (84‐year sequence scaled for ~2030 conditions) and future development.
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Climate ChangegScenario A Scenario B Scenario
CwetScenario Cmid
Scenario Cdry
GL/Year Percentage change relative to Scenario A
Inflows
From catchment runoff
464.5‐17% (386.4)
‐4% (445.9)
‐9% (422.7)
‐14% (399.5)
runoff
From flows downstream of na na na nahydro schemes
Total (inflows) 464.5 ‐4% ‐9% ‐14%
Source: Ling etal 2009.
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Climate Changeg
Mean monthly end‐of‐system flow and daily flow duration curves under scenarios P, A and Csce a os , a d
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Climate ChangeFuture Development
entire Pipers‐Ringarooma region projected to increase byprojected to increase by approximately 147 km2 from 2528 km2; 6% incfrom 2528 km2; 6% inc by 2030
Pipers‐RingaroomaCatchment wide 25% to 27% in 203027% in 2030
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Climate Changeg
Assessing the impact of this increase in the RingaroomaAssessing the impact of this increase in the Ringarooma catchment under a median future climate showed the end of systems flows to reduce by 1.3% relative to Scenario C mid, y ywhich has the potential to reduced the access to water for extraction by 2.5%.
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Summary
High rainfall regionMajor contribution to flow from upper Ringaroomacatchments Predictable flow regime with distinct seasonal signalRelatively high base flowModel developed to establish yield estimates in un-gauged
i f t h tregions of catchmentFuture climate shows potential reduction in yields out to 2030 9% under a mid future climate scenario2030, ~9% under a mid future climate scenarioThe impact of climate change and future forestry has potential to reduce end of system flows by a further ~1 3 %potential to reduce end of system flows by a further ~1.3 % compared to Tas SY scenario C mid.
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References
DPIPWE (2010). Surface Water Hydrology of the Ringarooma River Catchment. Water Assessment Hydrology Report Series, Report No. WA 10/11 Water and Marine Resources Division, Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Hobart, Tasmania.
Ling FLN, Gupta V, Willis M, Bennett JC, Robinson KA, Paudel K, Post DA and Marvanek S (2009) River modelling for Tasmania. Volume 3: the Pipers‐Ringarooma region. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania S i bl Yi ld P j CSIRO W f H l h C Fl hi A liSustainable Yields Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
HEC 2005. NAP Region Hydrological Model Ringarooma Catchment. Report 118784‐2. Hydroelectric Corporation: Hobart, Tasmania.
Website: www.dpiw.tas.gov.au/water
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