Supporting Older People Conference€¦ · Outlook . Residential Market Context . A polarised...
Transcript of Supporting Older People Conference€¦ · Outlook . Residential Market Context . A polarised...
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Supporting Older
People Conference
Sponsored by:
Df
B9: Understanding land and land values
Speakers: Paul Tostevin Associate Residential Research, Savills
David Shelton Chairman Shelton Development Services
Chair: Jim Patman
Group Development Director East Midlands Housing Group
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Residential Development
Land
Paul Tostevin, Savills Research 5 July 2013
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Land market drivers: Residential market
Land market drivers: Development
Land market overview
Outlook
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Residential Market Context
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A polarised market
Transactions v
pre crunch
Prices v pre
crunch peak
London -36% 7%
South East -36% -8%
East -38% -10%
South West -35% -11%
West Midlands -45% -16%
East Midlands -43% -18%
Wales -43% -19%
Yorks & Humber -49% -21%
North West -53% -22%
North East -52% -26%
England & Wales -42% -11%
Land Registry (April 2013)
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Stimulating the market
Funding for Lending
Help to Buy
£35bn of Equity Loans unlocking 75,000 sales
£12bn of Mortgage Guarantees: 320,000 sales
A £1bn Build to Rent fund
National Planning Policy Framework
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Maybe, just maybe
Source: RICS
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
May-0
5
Sep-0
5
Jan-0
6
May-0
6
Sep-0
6
Jan-0
7
May-0
7
Sep-0
7
Jan-0
8
May-0
8
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
May-0
9
Sep-0
9
Jan-1
0
May-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-1
1
May-1
1
Sep-1
1
Jan-1
2
May-1
2
Sep-1
2
Jan-1
3
May-1
3
Difference Buyer Enquires New Supply
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UK mainstream forecasts
5
years
to end
2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
5
years
to end
2017
Current
-11% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% 3.5% 3.5% 11.5%
Optimistic
-11% 0.5% 2.0% 3.5% 4.5% 3.5% 15.3%
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Development
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Market rate housing selling well:
larger house builders are selling faster
Source: Housebuilder Media
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Crest
Nicholson
Barratt Linden
Homes
Redrow Taylor
Wimpey
Bovis Cala Galliford
Try
Miller
Sa
les p
er
ou
tle
t p
er
an
nu
m
2011 annual 2012 Annual 2013 Annual
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And profits are up
Source: CLG, HBF
Estim
ate
-£100
£0
£100
£200
£300
£400
£500
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ave
rag
e g
ross p
rofit (m
illio
ns)
Nu
mb
er
of
un
its c
om
ple
ted
(G
B)
Private Enterprise Housing Associations Average Profit of Top 8 Housebuilders
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Government intervention will support further
increases in market completions
Source: DCLG, Savills
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
20
02
-03
20
03
-04
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
Ho
usin
g C
om
ple
tio
ns in
En
gla
nd
(a
ll te
nu
res)
Unsupported Volumes Previous Govermnent Support Schemes
HTB Equity Loan HTB Mortgage Guarantee
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The new planning system is now starting to
provide more deliverable consents
Source: HBF, DCLG
New planning
consents
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ad
ditio
na
l ho
use
s/h
ou
se
ho
lds in
En
gla
nd
(00
0s p
er
an
nu
m)
New homes starts
Household projections
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Private sector construction is expanding
Source: DCLG +Savills
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
New
Housin
g C
om
ple
tions i
n E
ngla
nd
Private Enterprise Private Completions Potential
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But a massive supply gap will remain -
for others to fill with market rent and affordable
housing
Source: DCLG +Savills
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
New
Housin
g C
om
ple
tions i
n E
ngla
nd
Private Enterprise Housing Associations
Local Authorities Private Completions Potential
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Affordable housing delivery
and Section 106
affordable housing is
being squeezed out by
viability
CIL will squeeze this
further
Source: Savills using DCLG and NAO data
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Ne
w b
uild
aff
ord
ab
le h
om
es d
elive
ry
Other
NAHP numbers
NAO projection of
AHP numbers
All new build
affordable
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Residential Development Land Market
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UK Greenfield & Urban Land Value Index
Source: Savills Research
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Q202
Q203
Q204
Q205
Q206
Q207
Q208
Q209
Q210
Q211
Q212
Q213
Index
Greenfield Urban
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Residential Development Land,% off Peak
Greenfield Urban
All Regions -32% -53%
London -3%
South East -26% -45%
Western -28% -47%
Eastern -39% -60%
Scotland -41% -44%
Northern -58% -70%
Source: Savills Research
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Readily developable sites drive demand
Urban Land
High density development (outside London)
Sites needing lots of remediation
Greenfield Land
Serviced sites
Permissioned Land
Smaller sites
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Land deals are getting larger, as finance returns to the
market
Source: Savills Research
£0
£5
£10
£15
£20
£25
£30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ave
rag
e v
alu
e o
f la
nd
tra
nsa
cte
d (£
m)
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Land availability and prices rising as a constraint
once again
Source: HBF
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
De
c 0
7
Ju
n 0
8
De
c 0
8
Ju
n 0
9
De
c 0
9
Ju
n 1
0
De
c 1
0
Ju
n 1
1
De
c 1
1
Ju
n 1
2
De
c 1
2% c
on
sid
eri
ng
fa
cto
r a
ma
jor
co
nstr
ain
t
(fo
ur
qu
art
er
rollin
g a
ve
rag
e)
Land availability Land prices
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The market remains geographically polarised
Source: Savills Research
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Savills Land deals in 2012
Source: Savills Research
Region Average £/plot
Greater London £407,332
South East £61,388
East Midlands £59,653
South West £57,919
West Midlands £41,049
East of England £37,981
Wales £32,045
Scotland £31,275
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Land transactions in London, 12 months to Oct 2012
Source: Molior / Savills Research
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Central London resi land values have surged since ‘09
Source: Savills Research
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Mar
97
Mar
98
Mar
99
Mar
00
Mar
01
Mar
02
Mar
03
Mar
04
Mar
05
Mar
06
Mar
07
Mar
08
Mar
09
Mar
10
Mar
11
Mar
12
Mar
13
Index
Residential Office Hotel
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Office to resi conversion viable in central London
Source: Savills Research
100 = Average
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Mar
03
Mar
04
Mar
05
Mar
06
Mar
07
Mar
08
Mar
09
Mar
10
Mar
11
Mar
12
Mar
13
Index
Hotel Residential Office
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Its not all about London...
Rank Town Region
1 Sevenoaks South East
2 Maidstone South East
3 Crawley South East
4 Exeter South West
5 Solihull West Midlands
6 Canterbury South East
7 Swansea Wales
8 Haywards Heath South East
9 Leamington Spa West Midlands
10 Edinburgh Scotland
Source: Savills Research
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Strategic Sites: Capacity for over one million homes
Source: Savills Research
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Placemaking, place management
& long term ownership
Streets, not architecture
Place-management
Value per hectare, not psf
Long-term income & growth
Buy-in / partnership with
landowners
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Higher GDV per ha & rate of sale
+45%
+18%
+30%
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Outlook
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Greenfield development land forecasts
Source: Savills Research
20
40
60
80
100
120
Ind
ex
UK Serviced land
UK Serviced land forecast
Serviced land South East
SE forecast
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Outlook
Housing high on political agenda
Public sector land
Housebuilders return to profit
Industry capacity
Land market polarised
Unlocking difficult sites
Slow but steady recovery
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consultancy software
training
development
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consultancy software
training
development
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Understanding Land & Land Values
David Shelton
NHF Development Conference
July 2013
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Understanding Land Values
• Public subsidy is set to fall further from £22k to £18k from 2015
• Greater levels of cross subsidy & internal subsidy required
• Developers being encouraged to do more speculative sales
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Understanding Land Values
• Development for sale (of any kind) is very risky
• Private developers need to make a profit (in part) to cushion the risk
• Associations should either wait until profit is secured, or make contingency against the sales risk.
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Understanding Land Values
• Traditional way for associations to be competitive is to reduce costs, increase subsidy, increase income (limited).
• But mix optimisation is a more powerful to tool to improve affordable land values
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Understanding Land Values
• Mix optimisation exploits the differences between the value of a unit and its cost.
• Different unit types perform better than others – the result is not always intuitive
• Identify those units that perform the best
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Understanding Land Values
Traditional Private Developer Residual Land Value Model
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Residual Land Model
Sales Income
Less Costs
Less Profit
Equals Land Value
Private Sector Valuation Model
Residual Profit Model
Sales Income
Less Costs
Less Land Value
Equals Profit
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Understanding Land Values
Sales Income £250,000
Cost to Build £120,000
Gross Profit £50,000 (20%)
Residual LV £80,000
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Understanding Land Values
Traditional Social Housing Developer Model
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Acquisition
Works
Fees Subsidy
Sales
Loan
TSC
TSC - (Subsidy + Income) = Loan
Discounted cashflow gives NPV and loan repayment etc.
Acquisition
Works
Fees
Sales
Loan
Understanding Land Values
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Acquisition
Works
Fees Subsidy
Sales
Loan
TSC
Reverse the process to establish residual land value
Acquisition
Works
Fees
Sales
Loan
Understanding Land Values
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But how can you know the loan without knowing TSC?
Understanding Land Values
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Use the Key Viability Test
NPV Net Income – Loan ≥ 0
Therefore:
Loan = NPV Income
Now add to it:
Subsidy (SHG and Internal Subsidy)
Any sales income
=TSC
Understanding Land Values
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Understanding Land Values
2-bed Affordable Rent
Aff. Loan* £105,000
Plus
Grant
£18,000
Internal
Subsidy
£10,000
TSC £133,000
Less
Fees &
Int.
£20,000
Less
Works
£85,000
Residual
Land
Value
£28,000
2-bed unit
MR - £625/m
3-bed unit
MR £800/m
AR 80% of MR
Fees & Interest
Assume 15% of TSC
Works, £1300/m² 2-bed
£1250/m² 3-bed
* Affordable. Loan =
NPV of Net Rent
3-bed Affordable Rent
Aff. Loan* £130,000
Plus
Grant
£23,000
Internal
Subsidy
£12,000
TSC £165,000
Less
Fees &
Interest
£26,000
Less
Works
£106,000
Residual
Land
Value
£33,000
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Understanding Land Values
2-bed Affordable Rent
Aff. Loan* £105,000
Plus
Grant
£18,000
Internal
Subsidy
£10,000
TSC £133,000
Less
Fees &
Int.
£20,000
Less
Works
£85,000
Residual
Land
Value
£28,000
3-bed Affordable Rent
Aff. Loan* £130,000
Plus
Grant
£23,000
Internal
Subsidy
£12,000
TSC £165,000
Less
Fees &
Interest
£26,000
Less
Works
£106,000
Residual
Land
Value
£33,000
Which of
these units
would be the
best to
develop to
maximise land
value?
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Use the Plotting Density to compare different units
How many units of the same type can be built on one
developable ac/ha including infrastructure, parking, etc.
2-bed unit = 14 units/ac
3-bed unit = 11 units/ac
Residual Land Value
2-bed = £392,000 per ac.
3-bed = £363,000 per ac.
Understanding Land Values
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Caveats & Notes
o It is important to use a specific works cost for each unit
type – using an average build cost blurs the differences
o Some flexibility to amend mix is required
o Other constraints (e.g. housing needs) may limit flexibility
o Use same approach to minimise grant (for a given land
value)
Understanding Land Values
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Caveats & Guidance
o Get plotting density data from your architect
Lastly but most importantly…….
Determine the optimum mix BEFORE you ask the
architect to provide the layout.
Understanding Land Values
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Understanding Land Values
And if you have been…………. Thank you !
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01483 278444 www.s-d-s.co.uk
contact us
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Supporting Older
People Conference
Sponsored by:
Df
B9: Understanding land and land values
Speakers: Paul Tostevin Associate Residential Research, Savills
David Shelton Chairman Shelton Development Services
Chair: Jim Patman
Group Development Director East Midlands Housing Group