Summary of Findings “Post Election Environment” Nationwide Survey, January 2014 The author’s...

Summary of Findings Post Election Environment Nationwide Survey, January 2014 The authors views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

Methodology 1. Scope: Nationwide, 62 Mouzas/Mohallas; 39 Districts; 7 Divisions 2. 1500 face to face interviews with citizens age 18 or older-potential voters 3. Multi-staged random sampling: 1. Randomly selected Mouzas/Mohallas (PSU) 2. Households were selected using systematic random sampling 3. Respondents were selected using Kish Grid 4. Field work: January 11-15, 2014. Significant events surrounding the fieldwork: 1. New Government & Parliament 2. Khaleda Zias speech 3. Pre and Post Election Violence 5. Call back strategy to increase response rate 6. Rigorous quality control: supervision, spot checks, trainings for enumerators 7. No data weighting was employed for this in person survey 8. National representation of voters with maximum MoE of +2.53% (@50% Interval-95% confidence level) Supplementary Telephone Interviews 1.1044 Cellphone users, selected using Random Digit Dialing method 2.Numbers generated among different carriers based on known market share 3.Interviews: Jan. 15-19, 2014 4.Data then weighted based on known population demographics 5.National representation of Voters with Cellphone with Maximum MoE of Approx. +3.2% (@50% Interval-95% confidence level) Supplementary Telephone Interviews 1.1044 Cellphone users, selected using Random Digit Dialing method 2.Numbers generated among different carriers based on known market share 3.Interviews: Jan. 15-19, 2014 4.Data then weighted based on known population demographics 5.National representation of Voters with Cellphone with Maximum MoE of Approx. +3.2% (@50% Interval-95% confidence level) Data Sets are analyzed independently from each other, Phone Survey results presented as insets

Demographics (Un-weighted) Gender Age Dwellings Divisions Religions Based on Education and Occupation of Chief wage earner in Respondents household; SEC A being Highest to E being Lowest SEC

Right-Wrong Track-Longitudinal Trend Overall, do you think things in Bangladesh are headed in the right direction, or are they headed in the wrong direction?

Reasons for Right/Wrong Direction 2.1 Why do you think things are headed in the right direction? (Multiple) 3.1Why do you think things are heading in the wrong direction? (Multiple)

Problems Facing Bangladesh* *Asked as open ended in November 2012 and January 2013; options were read since April 2013 Q5. In your opinion, what are three (3) main problems faced by Bangladesh?

Jan.5 Election Q5. Did you vote in last January 5, 2014 Election? (Nationwide n=1500) Q5. Did you vote in last January 5, 2014 Election? (Where Election were held, n=759)

Reasons Not to Vote Q6. What is the single main reason why you did not vote? (Nationwide n=1500) Q6. What is the single main reason why you did not vote? (where Election were held, n=481)

Reasons to Vote Q7. What is the single main reason why did you vote?

Possible Votes on Jan 5 Q19. Lets assume that the last January 5 election was fully participatory, which political party do you think you would vote for?

Votes if Election is held today Q20. If the election is held today, which party would you think you are likely to vote for?

Voters Retention and Movement 08 to Current

Governments Perceived Credibility Q8. In your opinion, the new government which will be formed as a result of this election will be highly credible, credible, less credible or not credible? Q9. In your opinion, should the next government be in power for full term in the next five years or should it be less than 5 years?

Re-Election? Q13. In your opinion, should there be another election before 5 years (within 5 years of current govt.)? Q14. Regardless of your opinion on Q13. ; do you think will there be one? Q15. In your personal prediction, how long will you think the new government will remain in power?

Election Violence/Fraud Q10_1. Please tell me whether you or any of your friend/family members see or hear these things happened in your area or not?

Post Election Security 11.In your opinion what can be done to maintain peace and security in your area? Q12. The BEC deployed the army a couple of weeks before the Election Day, in your opinion, how long should the Army be deployed?

Opinions on Current Issues Q21. Im going to read you series of 2 statements that are opposing each other; after each one please tell me which opinion is closer to your own.

Opinions on Current Issues-Cont. Q21. Im going to read you series of 2 statements that are opposing each other; after each one please tell me which opinion is closer to your own.

Opinions on Election-Party Breakdown

Opinion on Possible BNP Activities Q22. I am going to read you several activities that the BNP might or might not do next to request election under non-party caretaker government, after each one, please tell me whether you will highly support, support, against or highly against such activity by the BNP?

Opinion on Possible AL Activities Q23. Im going to read you several activities that the AL might or might not do next, after each one, please tell me whether you will highly support, support, against or highly against such activity by the AL?

Name Recognition and Favorability Ratings

Name Recognition and Favorability Ratings: Institutions

Summary of Findings “Post Election Environment” Nationwide Survey, January 2014 The author’s...

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