STT 864 Final Project Spring 2016

Due Date: Wednesday before 5:00pm EST, April 27, in C418 Wells Hall. Late paperswill not be accepted.

Instructions: You must work independently. You may not discuss this projectwith anyone except the course instructor.

The project aims to analyze Flint water data sets. The background of the Flint watercrisis was introduced in Lab 2. The data analyzed in this project were downloaded from thewebsite https://www.michigan.gov/flintwater. One data set is a sentinel sampling re-sults data set (file name: “Sentinel Data Set 1A-B 515890 7”), which were collected fromabout 600 sentinel sites in Flint (see Figure 1 for a map of locations). The sentinel siteswere chosen by the environmental protection agency (EPA) and the Michigan Departmentof Environmental Quality (MDEQ) according to the Detroit Free Press (in the article “EPAsays Flint water tests show some progress made”). The second data set was the residen-tial water testing samples collected between Sept. 3, 2015 and Mar. 15, 2016 (file name:“Test Results Flint 513922 7”). More details about these two data sets could be found onthe website https://www.michigan.gov/flintwater. Both data sets are also availableon our class website http://www.stt.msu.edu/users/pszhong/STT-864-2016.html.

You are free to perform any statistical analyses that answer real questions related tothe data sets that you consider to be relevant and informative. Use R to perform calcu-lations and computations. Do not submit pages of raw computer output, but you needto include important tables or attach graphs to support your conclusion and discussion.Write concise answers that clearly describe the steps in your analysis and your conclusions.Remember that there is no absolutely best answer and I expect to receive many differentanswers. You will be graded with respect to how well your analyses reveal interesting as-pects of the data sets, the interpretation of your results, how well you justify your methodsof analyses, and the overall quality of your writing. The details of the grading rubrics willbe posted on the class page website.

Your report should not exceed eight typed pages, excluding attached graphs or tables,with the font size and spacing used in these instructions. You may cut out computeroutput and simply paste it in appropriate places in your report. You do not have totype your report. You can submit a handwritten report. The limit on the number ofhandwritten pages depends on how large you write, but is limited to what could have fiton eight typed pages. Your report should including the following (but not limited to):

1. Provide a one paragraph summary of your major findings. This should not containany formulas or mathematical symbols. It should be well written so that it could beeasily understood by anybody else who is not a statistician.

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Sources: Esri, HERE, DeLorme, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community

State of Michigan

Date: 03/01/2016

·Legend

54 Results greater than 15 parts per billion of LeadXW 510 Results less than or equal to 15 parts per billion of Lead

Flint w/Franchise BoundaryFlint Area Zip Codes

Flint Water Incident - Sentinel Sampling Results - Lead

1 0 1 2 30.5 Miles

Figure 1: The map of the locations of sentinel sites.

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2. Provide a description of the steps taken to identify your best model (or models). Donot give all the details of your search. Do not submit any computer output in thissection. Simply outline the issues you considered, your decisions, and the sequenceof steps you took to develop a model.

3. Provide a description of your best model (or models), including estimates of param-eters and their standard errors, and the statistical inference you performed. Youmay copy small parts of computer output into this part of the report. Discuss andinterpret any important features of your model and state you conclusions in thecontext of the problem.

4. Provide convincing evidence that your analysis is based on a good model. Discussionof residual plots and other diagnostic checks would be appropriate. You may attachgraphs, but lists of raw computer output should not be submitted and will be ignored.

5. You may submit one to two more paragraphs outlining additional analyses that youwould have done if you had more time. You will earn points for good suggestionsand lose points for suggestions with little potential value. (This is optional.)

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