1. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Strategic Foresight and Scenario-based Planning Visit us at www.alisinc.com to access this presentation, com plete with audio.

2. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Accelerating Velocity of Human Interaction is a Trend Guilds 19th Century 20th Century 21st Century ChangeRate Loosely Coupled Systems The world opened up for business at the end of the Cold War Ill-Defined Expansion of Global Markets and IT Capabilities The Velocity of Human Interaction Tightly Coupled Systems Time Industrial Age Information Age Time Compression Decision Cycles (DCs) (DCs) (DCs) (DCs) (DCs) - Reframe Periods 3. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Why Strategic Foresight? To Achieve Effective Strategic Planning Organizations across all sectors must develop and enhance their strategic planning through strategic foresight to enable them to Succeed in the challenging environment of today, Overcome emerging complex and ill-defined problems and Posture for success in the future. Strategic planning is the continuous process of making present entrepreneurial (risk taking) decisions systematically and with the greatest knowledge of their futurity (Peter Drucker) Strategic foresight informs strategic planning 4. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Our Thinking is Often Constrained by Limitations of Current Strategic Planning Models Assessment Baseline Components Down to Specifics Evaluate Where we are Where we want to be How we will do it How are we doing Six Sigma Project Methodology ControlDefine Measure Analyze Improve Project Phases Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Generally Employed Models Fail to Address Future Strategic Environments Sequential Segregating Rigid Procedural vice vice vice vice Continuous Integrating Adaptive Cognitive 5. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved What is Strategic Foresight? The Purpose of Forecasting is to be Prepared for Change Thinking About the Future Hines and Bishop, 2006 Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in organizationally useful ways; for example, to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, explore new markets, products and services. 6. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Strategic Foresight Methodology Frame Scan Forecast Vision Plan Act Current Environment Implications: Primary 2d & 3d order effects Long-range Unintended Possible Futures Plausible Futures Probable Futures Preferable Futures Develop Strategic Vision Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario- Based Planning Strategic Messaging Action Plan Strategic Guidance Learning System 7. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Step 1 Frame Frame Current Environment Build the Strategic Foresight Core Team Orient on the Future Understand Stakeholders Understand Rationale and Purpose Set Objectives Map the Current Environment 8. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Step 2 Scanning Adopt a global perspective Study relevant history Look for changing contexts Identify trends Integrate SME and disruptive thinkers Establish a learning system Scan Visit us at www.alisinc.com to access this presentation, com plete with audio. 9. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Learning Domains Knowledge Comprehension Application Analysis Synthesis Evaluation We are Here Cognitive Affective Psycho- Motor Receiving Responding Valuing Organization Characterization By value We are Here Imitation Manipulation Practice Precision We are Here Articulate Habit 10. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Triple Loop Learning Single & Double Loop Learning - Argyris and Schn Triple Loop Learning - Flood and Romm Detailed Planning Effective Execution Solving the Problem Right Solving the Right Problem Understanding Why its Right Problem Strategic Foresight Single Loop Learning - What to do. (Rules) Acting Feedback - Changing Behavior Reframing Changing our Thinking Transforming Changing our perceptions Double Loop Learning - What to do. (Insights) Triple Loop Learning: Learning how to learn. (Principles) (Psycho-Motor Learning Domain)(Cognitive Learning Domain) (Affective Learning Domain) 11. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Step 3 Forecast Forecast Possible Futures Plausible Futures Probable Futures Preferable Futures Identify drivers and uncertainties Comprehensive STEEP + Diverge Generate Ideas Converge Synthesize and Prioritize Develop alternative futures Start Point.. Current Environment Informed by Scanning Outputs 12. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Step 4 Vision Develop meta-questions Propose implications Derive 2d and 3d order effects Suggest long-range consequences Suggest unintended consequences Challenge existing assumptions Propose new assumptions Vision Implications: Primary 2d & 3d order effects Long-range Unintended Develop Strategic Vision A recommended strategic vision is the objective 13. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Promoting Organizational Innovation Organizational innovation starts with individual creativity Leaders must motivate the organization to be creative and innovative Resources must be available for innovations to be developed, experimented with and assessed Management practices must set conditions for the adoption of innovations that will improve ROI, adaptability and resiliency Amabile, T. (1997). Motivating creativity in organizations: on doing what you love and loving what you do. California Management Review.40 (1), 39-58. 14. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Step 5 Plan Convert futures into scenarios Organizational vision (Step 4) is start point Generate ideas (divergent thinking) Cluster strategic options (convergent thinking) Satisficing strategy for plausible scenarios Optimized strategy for probable scenarios Initial analysis Recommended strategic options Plan Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario- Based Planning 15. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Conceptual Strategic Planning The Applied Design Methodology 16. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Scenario-based Planning Purposes Scenario- Planning Scenario Learning Evaluation Innovation Strategy/ Planning Focus: New Work Focus: Current Work Purpose: Prerequisite For Change Purpose: Action New Thinking/ Paradigm Shift Risk- Consciousness/ Need for Renewal Concept Development Strategy Development/ Organizational Development From: Scenario Planning By: Lindgren and Bandhold Visit us at www.alisinc.com to access this presentation, com plete with audio. 17. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Step 6 Act Convert options to strategic guidance Strategic messaging (internal and external) Develop action plan to translate strategy into effective operations Structure and employ organizational learning system in support of strategy Execution Assessment Act Strategic Messaging Action Plan Strategic Guidance Learning System 18. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Scenario Development Process Leverage Collaborative Work Map system from plausible future Ideate to produce a future scenario Timeline Future History to that scenario Vision, beliefs and values relevant to scenario Stakeholders view of scenario at end state Graphic and Narrative Description Plausible Futures 19. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Strategic Foresight Methodology Frame Scan Forecast Vision Plan Act Current Environment Implications: Primary 2d & 3d order effects Long-range Unintended Possible Futures Plausible Futures Probable Futures Preferable Futures Develop Strategic Vision Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario- Based Planning Strategic Messaging Action Plan Strategic Guidance Learning System 20. Copyright 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc. All rights reserved Strategic Foresight and Scenario-based Planning For addition information on opportunities to educate and train individuals and organizations In Strategic Foresight and Scenario-based Planning Contact: James K. Greer, Senior Vice President, Strategic Leadership and Design Abrams Learning and Information Systems, Inc. jgreer@alisinc.com (703) 332-9801 www.alisinc.com (703) 379-4340