Strategic Foresight - Keith Wiebe
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Transcript of Strategic Foresight - Keith Wiebe
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Strategic foresight: Long-term projections from
IFPRI, GFSF and AgMIP
Keith Wiebe, IFPRI and GFSF
ISPC, Rome, 16 September 2015
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Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
Modeling climate impacts on agriculture: biophysical and economic effects
General
circulation models (GCMs)
Global
gridded crop models
(GGCMs)
Global
economic models
Δ Temp Δ Precip
…
Δ Yield (biophys)
Δ Area Δ Yield Δ Cons. Δ Trade
Climate Biophysical Economic
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Socioeconomic and climate drivers
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs)
Representative
Concentration
Pathways (RCPs)
Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007.
CO2 eq. (ppm) Radiative forcing (W/m2)
Population (billion) GDP (trillion USD, 2005 ppp)
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AgMIP Global Economics results
Groups participating in this study:
• International Food Policy Research Institute – IMPACT
• LEI Wageningen UR – MAGNET
• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – MAgPIE
• Purdue University/Global Trade Analysis Project & Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN – ENVISAGE
• USDA Economic Research Service – FARM
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Projections to 2050 w/o climate change Baseline increases in global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2005 values)
Source: Wiebe et al. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
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Climate change impacts in 2050 Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 baseline values)
Source: Wiebe et al. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
Per
cen
t ch
ange
in 2
05
0
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Climate change impacts and trade Impacts of climate change and trade policy on yields, area, production, exports and prices of five commodities, (% deviation from baseline values in 2050 without climate change)
SSP1, RCP4.5 SSP3, RCP8.5
Source: Wiebe et al. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
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IMPACT baseline results
• Yields – climate effects by commodity and region
• Prices – comparing socioeconomic and climate effects
• Total demand – comparing commodities
• Per-capita food demand – by commodity and region
• Net trade – by region
• Food security – by region
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Yield effects of climate change, by region (SSP2)
Cereals
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;
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Yield effects of climate change, by region (SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
Cereals Maize
Rice Wheat
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;
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Yield effects of climate change, by region (SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
Cereals Roots & tubers
Oilseeds Pulses
Fruits & veg
Sugar
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;
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Price effects of socioeconomic and climate drivers
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
Cereals Fruits & vegetables Meat
SSP
s R
CPs
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Total global demand: aggregated commodities (SSP2, NoCC)
20
10
= 1
.00
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
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Total global demand: maize, rice, wheat (SSP2, NoCC)
20
10
= 1
.00
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
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Per-capita food demand (SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
Cereals
Meat
Roots & tubers
Pulses
Oilseeds
Fruits & veg
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;
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Net trade (SSP2, RCP8.5)
DVG = Developing Countries; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
Cereals
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Net trade (SSP2, RCP8.5)
DVG = Developing Countries; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
Cereals
Maize
Rice
Wheat
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Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
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Malnourished children (SSP2, RCP8.5)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
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To conclude
• Baseline scenarios • Differences by commodity and region
• Differences by socioeconomic and biophysical drivers
• Some drivers external to the CGIAR, others internal
• How to reflect the latter?
• Institutional considerations & managing expectations
• Alternative scenarios? • What scenarios?
• What indicators?
• What process?