Stock Market Review - news.abidjan.net · trend in oil prices is therefore expected to continue...
Transcript of Stock Market Review - news.abidjan.net · trend in oil prices is therefore expected to continue...
The Stock Market
FlopsTops
Stock Market Review
Week 45 – from November 07th to November 11th 2016
CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT BEYOND NUMBERS
Bloomfield Investment Corporation is a pan-African creditrating agency which specializes in the assessment of the creditrisk. Headquartered in Abidjan with offices in Douala and inKigali. the agency operates essentially in Africa.
Department of Economic and Stock Market Analysis
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Headquarters Plateau. BIAO-CI Tower. 15th floor. Abidjan - Côte d’Ivoire
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BRVM 10 k 4.51% 257.18BRVM COMPOSITE k 3.09% 283.92
Evol Value
Average PER* k 21.22
Average yield / share* m 6.02%
Market capitalization (billion FCFA) k 7 177
Trading volume (shares) 828 992
Trading volume (bonds) 40 123
Value traded (shares) 10 659 033 187
Value traded (bonds) 401 250 000
Market Trends
The BRVM closes this week up with 257.18 points for the BRVM 10 index (+4.51%) and 283.92 points forthe BRVM Composite index (+3.09%). The market capitalization amounted to 7 177 billion FCFA. Thetransaction value of equity market amounted to 10.66 billion FCFA this week, driven mainly by« Finance » sector wtih 83% of transaction. The VIVO ENERGY stock records the largest growth this weekwith a gain of 24.07 % whereas the BANK OF AFRICA SENEGAL stock shows the largest decline with a fallof 15%. On the commodities market crude oil and natural gas continue to fall.
* Calculated on the basis of the latest financial information published without
consideration of companies in liquidation
(Source BRVM)
Listed Companies 41
Sector Indices
Price Evol% Vol Val (000) PER Y/S
VIVO ENERGY CI 3 350 24.07% 39 540 123 537 64.6 49.7%
FILTISAC CI 23 400 17.65% 959 19 499 21.0 4.5%
PALM CI 13 295 10.79% 25 367 316 985 N/A 4.9%
SONATEL SN 24 990 7.18% 47 580 1 159 910 11.3 6.0%
Price Evol% Vol Val (000) PER Y/S
BANK OF AFRICA S 42 500 -15.00% 291 12 494 24.5 1.8%
SAPH CI 9 500 -9.52% 593 5 671 N/A 6.1%
CFAO CI 69 375 -7.50% 41 2 937 33.5 3.3%
UNILEVER CI 21 000 -4.52% 9 197 N/A 5.9%
# Companies
Value Evol% Evol YTD VolumeValue
traded(MFCFA)
AvgPER
AvgY/S
BRVM - Industrie 12 155.62 1.21% -6.90% 1 981 94 17.2 3.6%
BRVM - Services Publics 4 778.54 6.04% -3.14% 52 893 1 239 17.5 5.0%
BRVM - Finances 11 93.91 0.28% -9.42% 704 135 8 808 18.0 4.3%
BRVM - Transport 2 1 445.36 -0.33% 7.82% 27 8 44.4 4.3%
BRVM - Agriculture 4 176.34 1.32% 4.63% 26 072 324 31.3 12.3%
BRVM - Distribution 7 585.90 2.84% 3.56% 43 884 185 31.2 10.7%
BRVM - Autres Secteurs 1 445.37 0.00% -31.55% 0 0 14.3 N/A
Market News
[COTE D'IVOIRE]: For the 2016/2017 cotton season,
the Government of Côte d'Ivoire has decided to fix the
purchase price of seed cotton to the producer at 265
FCFA/kg, an increase of 15 FCFA/kg compared to the
previous season. By this price rise, the Ivorian
Government hopes to revive the sector whose results
during the 2015/2016 campaign have been judged
globally insufficient. Indeed, the 2015-2016 season was
characterized by a 31% drop in seed cotton production,
attributable to unfavorable climatic conditions, but also
to a decline in the number of producers and areas
planted for cotton.
[COFFEE]: Coffee prices continued their upward trend
in October, supported by worries about Robusta's
production and the intensification of speculation about
the decline in the Brazilian production for the
2016/2017 season. Thus, futures prices on the London
and New York commodities exchange averaged 95.30 US
cents/lb and 160.07 US cents/lb, respectively, up by
7.5% and 3.4%.
[OIL]: The hope aroused by the agreement on a cut in
oil production in September in Algeria could dissipate.
The International Energy Agency, in its monthly report,
noted an increase in production of OPEC countries
during the month of October of 230,000 barrels / day
compared with September. This increase would be
driven by Libya, Nigeria, Iraq and Iran. The downward
trend in oil prices is therefore expected to continue until
the next OPEC meeting scheduled for November 30,
2016, which aims to finalize the agreement on the
reduction of production.
CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT BEYOND NUMBERS
The Stock Market
News BRVM Corporates
[TREASURY - BURKINA FASO]: The Treasury of
Burkina Faso has launched a tender for the sale of bonds
for an amount of 35 billion FCFA. The maturity date is 8
April 2021 with an annual interest rate of 5%. The rate
of coverage of this tender was 110.29% with a significant
participation of Burkina Faso operators (81% of the
bids). Burkina Faso will intervene for the last time in
2016 on the regional financial market on 1 December for
an issue of treasury bills for an amount of 40 billion
FCFA.
[TREASURY-CÔTE D’IVOIRE]: The Treasury of Cote
d’Ivoire launches a tender for the sale of treasury bills
for an amount of 50 billion FCFA for a period of 28 days
at multiple interest rates. It will be offered 25% of the
tendered amount in the form of non-competitive offers
to the issuer's authorized Treasury Specialists (SVT). The
date for submission of tenders is Monday 14 November
2016.
[CIDT] : The Ivorian Government has authorized the
Privatization Committee to conduct negotiations for the
privatization of the Ivorian Textile Development
Company (CIDT). The financial situation of the CIDT
remains fragile due to the low level of cotton production
and the climatic disturbances recorded during the
2015/16 season. This decision is taken in order to
consolidate the revival of the company's activities and to
revitalize the general situation of the cotton sector.
The Chief Economist’s Analysis [a focus on TRACTAFRIC MOTORS CI]
Tractafric Motors Côte d'Ivoire (TMCI), a subsidiary of Tractafric Motors Corporation and one of the leaders inautomotive sales and service in Cote d'Ivoire, ends the first half of 2016 with a decline of 6.8% in sales compared tothe same period in 2015. This decrease could be linked to an adjustment of the Ivorian market in 2016, following anexceptional year 2015 with the sale of nearly 10 000 new vehicles against an average annual level of 9 000 vehicles.However, TMCI has increased its market share from 26.09% in the first half of 2015 to 27.24% over the same periodin 2016 due to the availability of its stock and the launch of new range of vehicles for the HYUNDAI and FORDbrands. In addition. the tire business and the EUROPCAR rental business of the company are both up respectively by22.7% and 11.5% in the first half of 2016 compared to the same period last year. On the stock market, the shareprice TRACTAFRIC MOTORS CI shows an increase over the first quarter of 2016, reaching its highest level on March10 at 725 000 FCA. After that, the share price follows a downward trend posting 371 000 FCFA in November 112016, which could be justified by the company's results. The opening of a new agency in Abidjan-Nord and theeventual holding of the automobile show of Abidjan could boost the activities of the company and revitalize itsshare price on the stock market.
CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT BEYOND NUMBERS
The Stock Market
Public Services Sector
Financial Sector
Industry Sector
Distribution Sector
Transport Sector
Reference price
Evol% Vol Val (000) PER Y/SNet margin
ratioROE
BICI CI 90 000 0.00% 95 8 550 16.21 4.70% 22.3% 21.7%
BANK OF AFRICA BN 168 500 -3.16% 76 12 390 13.54 4.81% 11.5% 24.5%
BANK OF AFRICA BF 138 000 0.00% 22260 3 093 734 12.62 4.85% 38.4% 40.5%
BANK OF AFRICA CI 146 000 0.69% 137 19 825 17.72 4.25% 18.4% 41.2%
BANK OF AFRICA M 39 000 0.27% 2104 80 378 11.27 0.00% 23.6% 24.0%
BANK OF AFRICA NG 91 000 -3.18% 32200 2 994 195 15.70 5.29% 24.1% 27.2%
BANK OF AFRICA S 42 500 -15.00% 291 12 494 24.53 1.76% 6.9% 20.8%
ECOBANK TRANS. INCORP. TG 28 0.00% 566944 15 954 7.91 7.11% 5.1% 6.3%
SAFCA CI 24 895 0.00% 18 448 45.56 5.78% 0.3% 1.2%
SGB CI 132 500 1.92% 4289 578 611 15.25 3.95% 26.1% 35.4%
SOCIETE IVOIRIENNE DE BANQUE CI
23 000 6.53% 75721 1 991 833 15.53 N/A 33.9% 40.8%
Reference price
Evol% Vol Val (000) PER Y/SNet margin
ratioROE
CIE CI 73 000 -2.67% 305 22 111 24.69 3.62% 1.9% 33.0%
ONATEL BF 11 000 4.76% 4931 52 032 14.80 5.92% 17.5% 32.7%
SODE CI 70 000 0.00% 77 5 323 19.14 4.63% 3.7% 25.9%
SONATEL SN 24 990 7.18% 47580 1 159 910 11.30 6.00% 25.6% 36.0%
Reference price
Evol% Vol Val (000) PER Y/SNet margin
ratioROE
SICABLE CI 83 000 3.75% 112 8 963 17.52 1.45% 5.4% 14.9%
FILTISAC CI 23 400 17.65% 959 19 499 21.00 4.47% 8.4% 10.1%
NEI-CEDA CI 3 400 3.03% 35 118 N/A 6.62% -6.4% -54.7%
NESTLE CI 51 050 -3.68% 46 2 433 17.01 1.23% 2.4% -772.8%
CROWN SIEM CI 35 590 -0.31% 1 36 28.57 3.41% 4.6% 12.9%
AIR LIQUIDE CI 14 500 -2.03% 123 1 779 15.07 4.34% 10.4% 29.5%
SOLIBRA CI 170 000 -0.58% 183 31 218 12.37 2.41% 14.4% 34.6%
SMB CI 21 500 -2.27% 103 2 224 7.57 2.09% 4.1% 579.6%
SITAB CI 155 000 5.16% 142 20 964 15.13 5.26% 10.1% 58.0%
TRITURAF CI-Ste en Liquidation
490 0.00% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
UNILEVER CI 21 000 -4.52% 9 197 N/A 5.87% -21.1% -172.6%
UNIWAX CI 24 000 -3.98% 268 6 521 20.65 2.03% 11.1% 63.7%
Reference price
Evol% Vol Val (000) PER Y/SNet margin
ratioROE
SERVAIR ABIDJAN CI 5 500 1.85% 2009 11 064 2.40 1.64% 16.1% 68.3%
BERNABE CI 164 000 0.00% N/A N/A 23.18 3.35% 5.2% 20.3%
CFAO CI 69 375 -7.50% 41 2 937 33.53 3.31% 5.7% 18.3%
TRACTAFRIC MOTORS CI 371 000 0.27% 20 7 420 25.58 3.52% 4.7% 27.8%
VIVO ENERGY CI 3 350 24.07% 39540 123 537 64.63 49.70% 1.2% 19.7%
TOTAL CI 16 300 -4.12% 1397 22 558 37.90 2.76% 1.7% 17.4%
TOTAL SN 20 000 -2.44% 877 17 485 13.30 4.68% 1.2% N/A
Reference price
Evol% Vol Val (000) PER Y/SRatio marge
netteROE
BOLLORE AFRICA LOGISTICS CI
298 995 -0.34% 27 7 908 44.42 3.20% 8.8% 19.4%
MOVIS CI 4 970 0.00% N/A N/A N/A 5.43% -11.7% -59.4%
CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT BEYOND NUMBERS
Agricultural Sector
The Stock Market
Other Sectors
Other Markets
Raw Materials
Currencies **
African Stock Markets
* Weekly evolution of the average price (order the day before the close of trading)
Reference price
Evol% Vol Val (000) PER Y/SNet margin
ratioROE
PALM CI 13 295 10.79% 25367 316 985 N/A 4.87% -0.4% -0.6%
SICOR CI 6 000 1.69% 64 384 52.76 31.98% 9.3% -41.9%
SOGB CI 27 500 -3.51% 48 1 346 9.91 6.22% 11.3% 11.6%
SAPH CI 9 500 -9.52% 593 5 671 N/A 6.11% -3.8% -5.1%
Reference price
Evol% Vol Val (000) PER Y/SNet margin
ratioROE
SETAO CI 36 075 0.00% N/A N/A 14.26 N/A 5.1% -6.6%
JohannesburgStock Exchange
ALL SHARE INDEX m -1.58% 3 075.71
Nairobi Stock ExchangeNSE ALL SHARE INDEX m -1.05% 140.01
Nigerian Stock ExchangeALL SHARE
INDEX m -3.00% 26 170.88
Egyptian ExchangeEGX 100 INDEX k 19.29% 980.95
Casablanca Stock Exchange
MOROCCAN ALL SHARE INDEX k 0.28% 10 551.43
Price Evol
USD / XOF 604.29 2.60%
GBP / XOF 761.32 3.25%
EUR / XOF 655.96 0.00%
JPY / XOF 5.66 -0.84%
CNY / XOF 88.65 1.77%
ZAR / XOF 42.15 -2.79%
NGN / XOF 1.92 3.09%
EGP / XOF 37.77 -0.21%
KES / XOF 5.94 2.60%
Price Evol
Silver (USD/Oz) 17.3 -5.95%
Gold (USD/XAU) 1 227.2 -6.02%
Natural gas (USD/MMBtu)
2.6 -5.39%
Crude oil (USD/bbl) 43.1 -2.22%
Cococa London (GBP/t) 2 026.7 -6.20%
Cacao New York (USD/t) 2 467.0 -4.68%
Coffe US (USD/lb) 159.6 -6.65%
Rubber (JPY/kg) 202.0 14.12%
Palm oil (Riggints/t) 2 975.0 8.10%
CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT BEYOND NUMBERS
Credit Ratings(1/3)
Company name Country Sector/ ActivityLong term Short term Rating
expiration dateLast Rating Perspective Last Rating Perspective
CIE Cote d'Ivoire Electricity AA+ Stable A1+ Stable 30/09/2017
IDT Cote d'Ivoire Tobacco distribution Confidential 01/11/2016
Loyale Assurances SA Cote d'Ivoire IARD Insurances BB- Negative C Negative31/10/2016
(ratingwithdrawn)
Loyale Vie SA Cote d'Ivoire LIFE Insurances A- Stable A2 Stable 31/07/2017
OMNIUM MaliManufacturing and distribution of batteries
BBB+ Positive A3 Positive 31/05/2016
ONEP Cote d'IvoirePromoting access to safe drinking water
B+ Positive B Stable 30/09/2016
PAA Cote d'Ivoire Port activities A+ Stable A1- Stable 30/06/2017
PALMCI Cote d'IvoireSeed and palm oilproducts
A- Stable A1- Stable 30/07/2017
PETRO IVOIRE Cote d'IvoireOil ProductsDistribution
A Stable A3 Stable 30/06/2017
PASP Cote d'Ivoire Public port operations A Stable A2 Stable 30/05/2017
SHELTER AFRIQUE Kenya Banking A Stable A1 Stable 30/06/2017
SIMAT Cote d'Ivoire Handling and Transit Confidential31/03/2011
(ratingwithdrawn)
Société Ivoirienne de Raffinage (SIR) Cote d'Ivoire Crude oil refining Confidential31/03/2012
(ratingwithdrawn)
SODECI Cote d'Ivoire Water distribution AA- Stable A1- Stable 30/09/2017
Ville de Dakar Sénégal Local community BBB+ Stable A3 Positive31/10/2016
(ratingwithdrawn)
CROWN SIEM CI Cote d'Ivoire Metal packaging BBB+ Stable A3 Stable 31/07/2017
SICOGI Cote d'IvoireConstruction and housing management
BBB Stable B Stable31/10/2015
(ratingwithdrawn)
NESTLE CI Cote d'Ivoire Food industry A- Positive A1- Stable 31/10/2016
GuarantCo United Kingdom Institutional Garranty AAA Stable A1+ Stable 30/06/2017
Commune du Plateau Côte d'Ivoire Local community BBB- Stable A2 Stable 31/07/2016
CAMTEL Cameroun Telecommunications BBB Stable A3 Stable 31/07/2016
CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT BEYOND NUMBERS
Credit Ratings(2/3)
Company name Country Sector/ ActivityLong term Short term Rating
expiration dateLast Rating Perspective Last Rating Perspective
AVENI – RE Cote d’Ivoire Reinsurance A- Stable A2 Stable 30/09/2016
Emission de la ville de Dakar Sénégal Financial instrument A Stable A1 Stable01/01/2016
(ratingwithdrawn)
District d'Abidjan Cote d’Ivoire Local community BB+ Stable B Stable 31/10/2016
Fonds d'Entretien Routier (FER) Cote d’IvoireFinancing of the maintenance of road infrastructure
A- Positive A2 Stable 30/09/2016
Bank Of Africa – Benin Benin Banking sector A Positive A1 Stable 30/04/2017
Bank Of Africa – Burkina Faso Burkina Faso Banking sector A Stable A1 Stable 30/04/2017
Bank Of Africa – Niger Niger Banking sector A- Stable A2 Stable 30/04/2017
Bank Of Africa – Sénégal Senegal Banking sector A- Stable A2 Stable 31/05/2017
Bank Of Africa – Côte d’Ivoire Cote d’Ivoire Banking sector A Stable A2 Positive 30/05/2017
Koffi & Diabaté Développement Cote d’Ivoire Construction BBB+ Stable A3 Stable 30/06/2016
Bank Of Africa – Mali Mali Banking sector A- Stable A2 Stable30/04/2017
(rating watch)
Caisse Régionale de Refinancement Hypothécaire
UEMOA Financial institution AA Stable A1+ Stable 30/06/2017
BERNABE Cote d’Ivoire
Distribution of hardware products. industrial equipment. metal products and construction materials
A+ Stable A1- Positive 31/07/2017
Air Côte d’Ivoire Cote d’Ivoire Airline company BBB+ Stable A3 Stable 30/08/2017
Alios Finance Cote d’Ivoire Financing by leasing BBB+ Stable A1 Stable 31/07/2017
State of Cote d'Ivoire - Local currency rating
Côte d'Ivoire Sovereign debt A- Stable A2 Stable 30/06/2017
VIP NET Cote d’Ivoire Telecommunications Confidential30/09/2015
(ratingwithdrawn)
ANSUT Cote d’Ivoire Telecommunications Confidential 31/07/2016
DEKEL OIL Cote d’IvoireSeed and palm oil products
Confidential 31/10/2016
FICOGES Cote d’Ivoire Audit Confidential 31/10/2016
UIREVI Cote d’Ivoire Export agriculture Confidential 31/07/2016
NSIA Banque Côte d’Ivoire Banking sector Confidential 31/03/2017
Radiant Insurance Company Rwanda Insurance Confidential 31/07/2017
CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT BEYOND NUMBERS
Credit Ratings(3/3)
Company name Country Sector/ ActivityLong term Short term Rating
expiration dateLast Rating Perspective Last Rating Perspective
NSIA Assurance Gabon Gabon Insurance Confidential 31/07/2017
NSIA Assurance VIE Côte d'Ivoire Côte d’Ivoire Insurance Confidential 31/07/2017
NSIA Assurance Cote d'Ivoire Cote d’Ivoire Insurance Confidential 30/06/2017
NSIA Assurance Guinée Bissau Guinea-Bissau Insurance Confidential 31/07/2017
NSIA Assurance Senegal Senegal Insurance Confidential 30/06/2017
NSIA Assurance Vie Senegal Senegal Insurance Confidential 31/07/2017
Tropical Distribution Côte d’Ivoire Distribution In development
Tropical Packaging Côte d’Ivoire Metal industry In development
Société Equatoriale des Mines Gabon Mining operations In development
CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT BEYOND NUMBERS
Bond Market
Corporate Bonds
Regional Entities Bonds
Government Bonds
Quantity Reference price Previous price Coupon Maturity
BHB 6.25% 2012-2017 10 000 10 000 587.5 11-oct
BIDC 6.75 % 2010-2017 10 000 10 000 336.58 04 apr/ 04 oct
BIDC-EBID 6.50% 2014-2021 10 080 10 080 325 28 apr/ 28 sep
BOAD 5.95% 2012-2019 10 000 10 000 595 06-march
BOAD 5.95% 2014-2021 10 000 10 000 260.82 26-dec
CRRH-UEMOA 6.10% 2012-2022 10 000 10 000 305 13 feb. / 13 aug
CRRH-UEMOA 6.10% 2012-2024 10 000 10 000 305 17 jan / 17 jul
CRRH-UEMOA 6% 2013-2023 10 000 10 000 300 26 april / 26 oct
CRRH-UEMOA 6% 2014-2024 9 999 9 999 300 30 june / 30 dec
CRRH-UEMOA 6% 2015-2025 10 000 10 000 290.9 04 jan / 04 jul
Quantity Reference price Previous price Coupon Maturity
ETAT MALI 6.20% 2016-2023 200 10000 10000 620 23-may
ETAT SENEGAL 6.5% 2014-2021 8000 8000 325 27 may / 27 nov
ETAT SENEGAL 6.70% 2012-2019 10000 10000 670 14-dec
ETAT SENEGAL 6.50% 2013-2023 10000 10000 325 29 jan / 29 jul
ETAT SENEGAL 6.30% 2015-2025 100 9900 10000 313.28 25 may / 25 nov
TPBF 6.50% 2011-2016 10000 10000 650 21-dec
TPBF 6.50% 2013-2020 10000 10000 325 29 may / 29 nov
TPCI 7% 2010-2017 10000 10000 700 01-oct
TPCI 6.50% 2012-2017 10000 10000 650 19-sept
TPCI 6.30% 2013-2018 20000 10055 10001 315 03 june / 03 dec
TPCI 6.55% 2014-2022 9999 9999 655 20-may
TPCI 5.85% 2014-2021 10000 10000 292.5 19 june / 19 dec
TPCI 3% 2014-2024 10000 10000 150 19 june / 19 dec.
TPCI 5.99% 2015-2025 500 9900 9990 599 14-may
TPCI 5.85% 2015-2022 10000 10000 599 05 apr / 05 oct
TPCI 6% 2016-2028 159 10000 10000 600 08-apr
SUKUK ETAT DE COTE D'IVOIRE 5.75% 2015-2020 6 10000 10000 292.292 28 june / 28 dec
SUKUK ETAT DE COTE D'IVOIRE 5.75% 2016-2023 10000 10000 289.097 7 sept / 7 march
SUKUK ETAT DU SENEGAL 6.25% 2014-2018 88 10000 10001 321.181 18 jul / 18 jan
SUKUK ETAT DU SENEGAL 6% 2016-2026 10000 10000 306.667 26 jul / 26 jan
SUKUK ETAT DU TOGO 6.5% 2016-2026 10000 10000 0 17 aug / 17 fev
Quantity Reference price Previous price Coupon Maturity
BOA BURKINA F. 6.25% 2012-2017 10 000 10 000 587.5 11-oct
BOA - CI 6.25% 2012-2017 10 000 10 000 612.5 11-oct
BOA NIGER 6.25% 2012-2017 9 250 9 250 587.5 11-oct
BOA SENEGAL 6.50% 2012-2017 10 000 10 000 611 11-oct
ORAGROUP 6.75% 2013-2019 10 000 10 000 337.5 04 june/ 04 dec
PAA 6.95% 2010-2017 2 000 2 000 168.85 28 may / 28 nov
PAD 7% 2010-2017 2 500 2 500 189.79 22 june / 22 dec
PALMCI 7% 2009-2016 9 925 9 925 342.06 28 june / 28 dec
SHELTER AFRIQUE 6.6% 2014-2021 9 000 9 000 327.29 28 feb. / 28 aug
SIFCA 6.90% 2013-2021 259 10000 10000 676.2 08-aug
CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT BEYOND NUMBERS
Contacts Bloomfield Investment Corporation
Djeneba DIALLODirecteurAnalyses Economiques et Boursiè[email protected]
Bloomfield Investment Corporation06 BP 1888 Abidjan 06Tel: (225) 20 215 747 / (225) 20 215 749Fax: (225) 20 215 751