Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-To-market Effects on Cross-section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
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Transcript of Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-To-market Effects on Cross-section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
The Lumbini Journal of Business and Economics, Vol. 1, April, 2011
STOCK BETA, FIRM SIZE AND BOOK-TO-MARKET
EFFECTS ON CROSS-SECTION OF COMMON STOCK
RETURNS IN NEPAL Surya Bahadur Rana, M. Phil♠
Abstract
This study examines the cross-sectional variations in common stock returns with respect to stock
beta, firm size and book-to-market equity of 61 sample firms with a total of 455 observations listed in
Nepal stock exchange till mid-April 2010. The study covers firm specific data during the fiscal year
1996/97 through 2008/09. This study basically employs cross-sectional linear regression model along
with empirical CAPM and three-factor model to assess the explanatory power of the firm specific
variables. The results show that firm size does not explain the common stock returns in the context of
stock market in Nepal. On the other hand, study reveals that book-to-market equity and stock beta
effects on common stock returns are consistent across all the analyses and all the specifications of the
model. The results indicate very strong role of stock beta and book-to-market equity to explain
common stock returns in Nepal. The results also indicate that although the stock returns are
significantly explained by stock beta or market risk factor, the underlying assumption of CAMP does
not completely hold in Nepalese stock market as intercept term in empirical CAPM has been observed
to be marginally significant. On the other hand, results support Fama and French (1995) three-factor
model because intercept term in empirical FF three-factor model has been observed to be not
significant, and the evidences establish market risk factor, firm size factor and book-to-market factor
as the most significant determinants of stock returns in Nepal.
1. CONCEPTUAL BACKGROUND AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Asset pricing theory is concerned with determining how investors choose to
allocate scarce resources among assets. As the underlying theory suggests, the
investors allocate resources into assets based on the ‘object’ and ‘theory’ of choice.
Mean and variance associated with an asset’s returns are the objects of choice. They
indicate the risk-return combination of an investment. On the other hand, theory of
choice guides on selecting the most preferable utility maximizing risk-return
combination of an investment. The basic foundation for asset pricing theory was
laid down by Markowitz (1952) through a seminal work entitled ‘Portfolio
♠ Surya B. Rana is Lecturer at Tribhuvan University, Lumbini Banijya Campus, Butwal. This paper
constitutes a part of his M. Phil. research work.
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
Selection’. Markowitz portfolio theory asserts that a single asset may be very risky
when held in isolation, but not much risky when held in combination with other
assets in a portfolio. This conclusion is based on the idea that the riskiness of a
portfolio is not only determined by variance of assets return, but also by covariance
or correlation of returns between assets held in the portfolio.
The underlying construct of the Markowitz (1952) portfolio theory motivated
Sharpe (1964), Linter (1965), Mossin (1966) and Black (1972) to extend and develop
the assets pricing theory-the capital assets pricing model (CAPM). The underlying
assumption of CAPM is that all investors are price takers and have homogeneous
expectation about asset returns that have a joint normal distribution. In theory,
when all individuals have homogeneous expectations, the market portfolio must
be efficient. Without homogeneous expectations, the market portfolio is not
necessarily efficient and the equilibrium model of capital market does not
necessarily hold. Thus, the efficiency of the market portfolio and the capital asset
pricing model are inseparable, joint hypothesis. It is not possible to test the validity
of one without other.
Given the market efficiency, CAPM postulates that only a component of total risk,
which is related to the market, is relevant for pricing of capital assets. The CAPM
establishes a link between market risk (measured by beta) and return for all assets.
Therefore, the relationship between expected return and market risk is the essence
of the CAPM. It argues that market portfolio is a well diversified portfolio and only
the risk associated with the market portfolio is the systematic risk as measured by
beta. Therefore, if an asset is included in a well diversified portfolio, the asset must
be priced to compensate for systematic risk. The unsystematic risk is uncorrelated
with the market and, therefore, is omitted. Hence, the theoretical foundation of
CAPM reveals that stock beta, a measure of systematic risk, can capture much of
the variations in common stock returns.
The CAPM, however, has not gone unchallenged. The validity of the CAPM is
questioned because it posits a positive linear relation between expected returns
and betas, while other firm specific variables such as firm size and book-to-market
equity should not have any ability to explain average cross-sectional returns. The
key ingredient in the model is the use of beta as a measure of risk. Although, early
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
studies, for example, Friend and Blume (1970), Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972),
and Fama and MacBeth (1973), demonstrated beta to have reasonable predictive
power about returns on a portfolio of common stocks, other empirical evidences,
for example, Banz (1981), Stambaugh (1982), Chan, Hamao and Lakonishok (1991),
Fama and French (1992), Davis (1994), and Kothari, Shanken and Sloan (1995),
among others, have raised doubt against validity and applicability of this model.
Many of these studies have concluded that the factors other than beta are
successful in explaining that portion of common stock returns not captured by
beta.
Several anomalies, other than CAPM beta, have become evident when studies have
attempted to explain actual stock returns. For example, size effect of Banz (1981) is
one of them, which has demonstrated that common stocks of firms with small
market capitalization provide higher returns than common stocks of firms with
high capitalization, holding other things constant. Another irregularity is that
common stocks with high book-to-market equity ratio do better than common
stocks with low ratios. For example, Chan, Hamao and Lakonishok (1991) have
documented that book-to-market equity is important in explaining common stock
returns. On the other part of studies, although empirical testing of CAPM by Black,
Jensen and Scholes (1972) has reported a linear empirical market line with positive
risk-return trade-off, the intercept term has been found significantly different from
zero that rejects empirical validity of the CAPM. The study has suggested that the
CAPM is either misspecified and requires the addition of factors other than beta to
explain stock returns or that the problem in measuring beta are systematically
related to variables such as firm size.
Fama and French (1992) published a landmark study on the cross-sectional
relationship between risk and return, as a test of CAPM. The results indicated
noticeable relations between monthly stock returns and both size and beta when
portfolios were arranged by size, but no sure relation when the portfolios were
arranged by beta. Similarly, the study also exhibited no significant relation
between average returns and beta when combined with size. The study
documented that book-to-market equity has the strongest relation with expected
returns. Furthermore, book-to-market equity and market value of equity were
observed to capture the explanatory power of the beta for stock returns. In follow-
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
up studies, Fama and French (1993; 1995) offered economic justifications for their
findings by showing that book-to-market equity and market value of equity proxy
for stock returns sensitivity to risk factors and postulated that these variables are
also related to earnings. With the inspiration from findings of succeeding studies
by Fama and French (1993; 1995), they proposed a three-factor model that
comprises of market risk factor, size factor and book-to-market equity factor as
opposed to the single factor -the market risk- proposed by the CAPM. The three-
factor model showed that the stocks of small firms and those with a high book-to-
market equity ratio could provide above average returns. This could simply be a
coincidence. But there are also evidences that these factors are related to firm
profitability and therefore may be picking up risk factors that are left out of the
simple CAPM. Since then, there is an ongoing wonder as to which explain the
stock returns better- the CAPM or the three-factor model.
The proposed three-factor model has also generated a number of subsequent
studies with the objective of re-establishing the validity of beta as a measure of risk
and the CAPM as a sound asset pricing model. Basically, the studies have focused
more on the methodological improvements to reduce potential measurement error
in beta. For example, among others, Kim (1995) used a methodology to correct for
measurement bias effects. With this correction, the study revealed that beta has
statistically significant explanatory power, but other variables such as firm size and
book-to-market equity were also significant. Subsequent studies have thus been
able to re-establish the latent value of beta as a significant explanatory variable for
average cross-sectional returns but have not abolished or made clear why other
firm specific variables continue to explain cross-sectional returns. Therefore, the
underlying construct is that if the true beta is known, then the firm specific
variables will not be present in a cross-sectional regression. However, if the CAPM
is valid and if the beta is measured with errors, then it is quite possible to obtain
any one of the two empirical results- either beta is not significant and one or more
of the firm specific variables are; or beta and one or more of the firm-specific
variables are significant.
With respect to the ongoing debate on the role of stock beta, firm size and book-to-
market equity in explaining cross-section of common stock returns, this study is an
attempt to examine these phenomena in the context of Nepalese stock market.
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
Hence, the basic purpose of this study is to explore the effect size of these firm
specific variables in the context of stock returns in Nepal. This paper is divided
into a total of five sections. The first section dealt with a general background of the
study. The second section provides a brief review of literature along with
statement of the problem. The third section provides a description of data and
methodology used. Results are presented and described in the fourth section and
the final sections presents a concluding remarks of the study along with the
limitations of the study.
2. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) of Sharpe (1964), Linter (1965), Mossin
(1966), and Black (1972) scripts the origin of asset pricing theory. The primary
implication of the CAPM is that the model is mean-variance efficiency. This
implies that there exists a positive linear relation between expected returns and
market betas, and variables other than beta should not have power in explaining
the cross-sectional variations in common stock returns. The main attraction of the
CAPM is that it offers influential and naturally agreeable predictions about how to
measure risk and the relation between expected return and risk. However, the
empirical documentation of the model is poor enough to nullify the way it is used
in application.
The early empirical tests in US stock markets focused on the model’s predictions
about intercept and slope in the relation between expected return and market beta.
Many tests rejected the basic assumption of the CAPM. For example, Friend and
Blume (1970), Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972), and Stambaugh (1982)
documented positive relation between beta and average stock returns, but it was
too flat. The CAPM also predicts that the intercept term is equal to risk-free rate
and the coefficient on beta is the expected market return in excess of risk-free rate.
On the contrary, the studies such as by Miller and Scholes (1972), Blume and
Friend (1973), Fama and MacBeth (1973), among others, found intercept term
greater than the average risk-free rate, and the coefficient on beta less than the
average excess market returns. However, the issues associated with empirical
validity of CAPM are yet to be tested in the context of stock market in Nepal.
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
Hence, the present study attempts to test, using more recent data, whether the
central prediction of CAPM holds true in Nepalese stock market.
Contrary to the predictions of the CAPM model, empirical studies have found that
variables relating to firm characteristics have significant explanatory power for
average stock returns, while beta has little power. The most prominent variables
associated with firm characteristics are firm size and book-to-market equity, cash
flow yield and earnings-to-price ratio. Among the several contradictions, earlier
one was Basu’s (1977) evidence that when common stocks were sorted on earnings-
to-price ratios, future returns on high earnings-to-price stocks were observed
higher than that predicted by the CAPM. Similarly, La Porta (1996) demonstrated
low earning growth stocks to have significantly lower standard deviations and
betas than higher earnings growth stocks. On the other hand, in relation to firm
size effect, Banz (1981), Reinganum (1981), and Keim (1983) observed that small
firms have higher returns and larger firms have lower returns than those predicted
by the CAPM. Jagadeesh (1992) also documented no explanatory power of beta in
predicting cross-sectional differences in average returns because when the test
portfolios were constructed the correlations between beta and firm size were found
small.
Finally, Stattman (1980), and Rosenberg, Reid, and Lanstein (1985) demonstrated
high average returns for stocks with high book-to-market equity ratios that were
not captured by their betas. In later period, Chan, Hamao, and Lakonishok (1991)
revealed that book-to-market equity could explain stock returns in Japan. There is
a theme in the contradictions of the CAPM summarized in these studies. Ratios
involving stock prices have information about expected returns missed by market
betas. However, most empirical tests that have found those contradictions to the
CAPM, involve an error-in-variables problem, since true betas are unobservable
and, thus, estimated betas are used as proxy for the unobservable betas. Handa,
Kothari, and Wasley (1989), and Kim (1995) showed that the errors-in-variables
problem could induce an underestimation of price of beta risk and an over
estimation of other cross-sectional regression coefficients associated with firm
characteristics variables such as firm size and book-to-market equity that might be
observed with error. As a mater of fact, a greater correlation between the estimated
betas and firm specific variables causes more downward bias in the price of beta
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
risk estimate and more exaggeration of the explanatory power of the firm specific
variables. Hence, this study also attempts to identify whether higher correlation
exists between betas and firm specific variables and examine the joint role of beta,
firm size and book-to-market equity in explaining common stock returns in the
context of Nepal.
Fama and French (1992) updated and synthesized the evidence on the empirical
failures of the CAPM. Based on the cross-section regression, the study confirmed
that size, earnings to price, debt-equity and book-to-market ratios could add to the
explanation of expected stock returns provided by market beta. Fama and French
(1996) reached the same conclusion using the time-series regression approach
applied to portfolios of stocks sorted on price ratios. The study also found that
different price ratios did have much the same information about expected returns.
As a result, Fama and French (FF) (1993; 1995; 1996) advocated a three factor model
in which a market portfolio return was attached by a portfolio long in high book-
to-market stocks and short in low book-to-market stocks (HML-high minus low
book-to-market equity) and a portfolio that is long in small firms and short in large
firms (SMB-small minus big size). Since then several studies have used the FF
three-factor model as an empirical asset pricing model.
However, there is controversy over why the firm specific attributes that are used to
form the FF three factors should predict stock returns. Some argue that such
variables may be used to find securities that are systematically mispriced by the
market (for example, Lakonishok, Shleifer, & Vishny, 1994; Daniel & Titman, 1997).
Others argue that these measures are proxies for exposure to underlying economic
risk factors that are rationally priced in the market (for example, Fama and French,
1993; 1995; 1996). A third view is that the observed predictive relations are largely
the result of data snooping and various biases in the data (for example, Kothari,
Shanken, & Sloan, 1995; Chan, Jagadeesh, & Lakonishok, 1995). In similar case,
Berk (1995) emphasized that, because returns are related mechanically to price by a
present value relation, ratios that have price in the denominator are related to
returns by construction. As a matter of fact, if the numerator of such a ratio can
capture cross-sectional variation in the expected cash flows, the ratio is likely to
provide a proxy for the cross-section of expected returns. Ratios like the book-to-
market are therefore likely to be related to the cross-section of stock returns
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
whether they are related to rationally priced economic risks or to mispricing
effects. Given these prominences of the FF three-factor model, it is interesting to
test its empirical performance as an asset pricing model. Therefore, this study also
attempts to examine whether stock returns are largely associated with three factors
as suggested by FF in the context of small capital market in Nepal. The study
basically deals with following specific issues:
a. Does CAPM explain stock returns in Nepal?
b. Whether CAPM beta alone can predict stock returns, or inclusion of firm size
and book-to-market equity subsume the beta effect on stock returns?
c. Are the stock returns related to three factors suggested by FF three-factor
model?
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research design
This study has employed descriptive, correlational and causal comparative
research designs to deal with the fundamental issues associated with factors
affecting common stock returns in the context of stock market in Nepal. The
descriptive research design has been adopted for fact-finding and searching
adequate information about factors affecting common stock returns. This design
has also been employed to describe the nature of cross-sectional common stock
returns of 61 enterprises consisting of 455 observations during fiscal year 1996/97
through 2008/09 by using descriptive statistics with respect to firm specific
variables such as stock beta, firm size and book-to-market equity ratio. This study
is also based on correlational research design. This design has been adopted to
ascertain and understand the directions, magnitudes and forms of observed
relationship between common stock returns and firm specific variables. Moreover,
this study has also employed causal comparative research design to determine the
effect size of stock beta, firm size and book-to-market equity on cross-sectional
common stock returns. The basic purpose of employing causal comparative
research design is to examine whether it is possible to predict common stock
returns on the basis of information about firm specific variables.
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
Nature and sources of data
This study is based on secondary sources of data. The data for firm specific
variables including stock market data have been obtained from financial
statements of the sample firms recorded in the database of Nepal Stock Exchange
(NEPSE) Limited and Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON) provided in their
respective websites. NEPSE and SEBON have maintained the record of firm
specific data only from the fiscal year 2002/03 to 2008/09 in their respective
database as on mid-April 2010 in websites. Therefore, the firm specific data prior to
2002/03 have been derived from various issues of ‘Financial Statements of Listed
Companies’ published by Nepal Stock Exchange Limited. Similarly, firm specific
data of more recent period (that is for the year 2008/09) are unavailable for most of
the listed firms as these firms have not timely submitted their annual reports.
Overall, the period covered in study with respect to firm specific variables ranges
from fiscal year 1996/97 to 2008/09. The number of observations varies among
enterprises with minimum 2 to maximum 13 observations. Such variations in
number of observations have been noticed mainly due to the unavailability of
continuous years’ data for several firms.
Population and sample
Population of this study includes all listed firms in Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE)
Limited to the end of mid-April 2010. Table 1 shows the population and sample of
the study along with their respective number of observations that represents
different sectors as defined by NEPSE. A total of 179 enterprises were listed in
NEPSE as of mid-April 2010 and 61 of them were included in the sample list.
In selecting the most reliable and representative samples, first the population of the
NEPSE was stratified into different sectors as defined by the NEPSE and then
enterprises from each stratum were selected on the basis of availability of market
and firm specific financial information of at least two continuous years from the
fiscal year 1996/97 to 2008/09. There were total 128 enterprises from banking and
finance sector listed in NEPSE to the date. Of these, 84 enterprises did not have
complete firm specific financial information available for the period after 2004/05.
Therefore, these enterprises were excluded from sample and only 44 of them with
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
more recent years’ observations were included. The number of enterprises from
insurance sector consisted of total 19 insurance companies to the date and 4 of
them with complete financial information to the most recent years were considered
in the sample.
Table 1 Population and sample enterprises from different sectors
S. No. Sector Population Sample Observations
1. Banks and Finance Companies
128 44 342
2. Insurance Companies 19 4 41
3. Manufacturing and Processing
18 3 24
4. Trading 4 2 14
5. Hydropower 4 4 11
6. Hotels 4 3 20
7. Other 2 1 3
Total 179 61 455
Source: www.nepalstock.com
The data problem is more acute for manufacturing and processing sector
enterprises listed in NEPSE. Out of total 18 enterprises from this sector, most have
no regular trading and thus market information about them are not available.
Therefore, only 3 enterprises from manufacturing sector with complete market
information were taken into the sample. Similarly, there were 4 enterprises from
trading sector listed in NEPE till mid-April, 2010. Out of them only two
enterprises, namely Bishal Bazar Company Limited and Salt Trading Corporation
had market information recorded in the NEPSE. Therefore, these enterprises were
also included in the sample. Among the enterprises in hydropower sector, all 4
enterprises had complete market information of more recent years, so all of them
were included in sample. The sample also consists of 3 out of 4 enterprises from
hotels and 1 out of 2 enterprises from other sector defined by NEPSE. The selection
of these enterprises was also based on the availability of complete firm specific and
market information.
The Nepalese stock market is dominated by deep and broad market of banks and
finance companies and the updated financial statements of many of these sectors’
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
firms are available in the NEPSE and SEBON database. However, financial
information relating to manufacturing and processing, trading, hotels, and other
sectors’ enterprises are relatively of older date and the number of firm years are
relatively fewer. Therefore, sample list is basically dominated by banks and finance
sector’s enterprises both in terms of number of firms and number of observations.
Methods of data analysis
The main purpose of data analysis in this study is to explore the predictive power
of firm specific variables in explaining common stock returns for selected
enterprises in the context of stock market in Nepal. The method of data analysis
used in this study consists of econometric models that include cross-sectional
regression models, empirical version of CAPM model and FF three-factor model.
The study has also used descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, two-way short
of portfolios along with statistical test of significance such as t-test, F-test, Adjusted
R2, test of autocorrelation and multicolinearity.
In order to explain the effect size of firm specific explanatory variables on cross-
section of common stock returns, the empirical regression model (Davis, 1994) of
the form specified in equation (1) has been used.
Rit = α +b1t βit + b2t LMEit + b3t BE/MEit + et . . . (1)
In equation (1) Rit refers to the returns on common stock of firm ‘i’ for period ‘t’, βit
is the stock beta of firm ‘i’ for period ‘t’, LMEit is the natural logarithm of market
value of equity, BE/MEit denotes the ratio of book-to-market equity, and ‘eit’ refers
to the unexplained residual error terms. α is the intercept term, and b1t, b2t, and b3t,
are the respective parameters of the explanatory variables to be estimated. The
cross-sectional variations in stock returns associated with stock beta, firm size,
book-to-market equity ratio, and earnings-to-price ratio have been examined by
using several specifications of equation (1).
The equation (1) specified above assumes the following reasonable a priori
hypothesis:
δδδδRit
δδδδ βit > 0;
δδδδRit
δδδδ LMEit < 0; and
δδδδRit
δδδδ BE/MEit > 0 . . . (2)
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
The priori sign expectation in equation (2) implies that the stock returns are
positively related with stock beta, book-to-market equity and earnings-to-price
ratios and negatively related with firm size.
The next section of regression analysis tests the comparative performance of the
CAPM and FF three-factor model in the context of Nepalese stock market. For the
purpose of testing empirical validity of the CAPM, the empirical model of Sharpe
(1964), Linter (1965) and Black (1972) version has been used to explain the cross-
section of common stock returns with respect to the market risk premium. The
empirical model is specified in equation (3).
Rit – RFt = ααααi + bi [RMt – RFt] + eit . . . (3)
In equation (3), Rit is the returns on common stock of firm ‘i’ for period ‘t’, RFt is
the risk-free rate of return during period ‘t’, RMt is the rate of return on market
portfolio, and eit denotes the unexplained residual error terms.
The equation (3) specified above assumes the following reasonable a priori
hypothesis:
δδδδ (Rit – RFt)
δδδδ (RMt – RFt) > 0 . . . (4)
The priori sign expectation in equation (4) implies that excess stock returns are
positively related with excess market returns.
In an attempt to analyze the predictive power of market risk factor, size factor and
book-to-market equity factor, and to compare with the CAPM, Fama and French
(1995) three-factor model of the following form has been used.
Rit – RFt = ααααi + bi[RMt – RFt] + si(SMBt) + hi(HMLt) + eit . . . (5)
In equation (5), [Rit - RFt] is the excess of stock returns of firm i over risk-free rate
for period t, and [RMt - RFt] is the excess of market return over risk-free rate for
period t. For each year, the stocks were sorted into two size groups- small and big,
and three book-to-market equity group- high, medium, and low. SMBt refers to the
size factor determined as average of small firm size minus average of big firm size
portfolio returns during each year. Similarly, HMLt is the book-to-market equity
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
factor defined as average of high BE/ME minus average of low BE/ME portfolio
returns during each year. eit is the unexplained residual terms, αi is the intercept
term, and bi, si, and hi are the coefficients of market risk factor, size factor, and
book-to-market equity factor respectively.
The equation (5) specified above assumes the following reasonable a priori
hypothesis:
δδδδ (Rit – RFt)
δδδδ (RMt – RFt) > 0;
δδδδ (Rit – RFt)
δδδδ (SMBt) < 0; and
δδδδ (Rit – RFt)
δδδδ (HMLt) > 0 . . . (6)
The priori sign expectation in equation (6) implies that excess stock returns are
positively related with excess market returns and book-to-market premium
denoted by high minus low book-to-market, and negatively related with size
premium denoted by small minus big size stocks.
4. STUDY RESULTS
Descriptive statistics
Descriptive statistics have been used to describe the characteristics of stock returns
and firm specific variables during the study period. The descriptive statistics used
in this study consists of mean, standard deviation, and minimum and maximum
values associated with variables under consideration. Table 2 summarizes the
descriptive statistics of firm specific variables used in this study during the period
1996/97 through 2008/09 associated with 61 sample firms listed in NEPSE.
Market capitalization of equity of the sample firms ranges from minimum Rs 6.75
million to maximum Rs 72,227.675 with an average of Rs 2,062.7639 million and
standard deviation of Rs 6,036.59 million. The wider range of market capitalization
of equity implies that the firm included in the sample varies in terms of their size.
Table 2 also reveals that net worth position of the firms varies significantly. It
ranges from minimum negative Rs 71.4 million to maximum positive Rs 3,521.64
million with a mean value and standard deviation of Rs 359.1576 million and Rs
551.2338 million respectively. The firms also differ in terms of their earnings per
share and market price per share. Earning per share has average value of Rs 35.14,
while market price per share has an average value of Rs 587.4418 and standard
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
deviation of Rs 867.5687. Relatively larger difference in market price implies that
sample firms consist of low to high growth stocks.
Table 2 Descriptive Statistics of Firm Specific Variables associated with 61 Sample
Firms during the Period 1996/97 through 2008/09 This table shows descriptive statistics- mean, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values- of
firm specific variables associated with 61 sample firms listed in the population of NEPSE till mid-
April 2010 with 455 observations for the period 1996/97 through 2008/09. ME refers to market value
of equity defined as number of outstanding shares multiplied by corresponding market price per
share, BE is the net worth, EPS is the earnings per share, MPS is the market price per share of
common stock, BE/ME is the ratio of book value of equity to market value of equity, LME is the
natural logarithm of market value of equity used as a proxy for firm size, β is common stock beta used
as a proxy of systematic risk, Ri is the annual return on common stock, RM - RF refers to the excess of
market return above risk-free rate, Ri – RF refers to the excess of stock returns above risk-free rate, and
N refers to the number of observations.
Variables N Mean Std. Dev. Minimum Maximum
ME (Rs in Million) 455 2062.7639 6036.5900 6.7500 72227.6750
BE (Rs in Million) 455 359.1576 551.2338 -71.4000 3521.6400
EPS (In Rs) 455 35.1336 37.0411 -79.0500 285.7200
MPS (In Rs) 455 587.4418 867.5687 35.0000 7750.0000
BE/ME 455 0.6820 0.5623 -0.3245 4.7189
LME 455 2.4484 0.8529 0.8293 4.8587
β 455 0.9121 2.2643 -19.3500 12.4900
Ri 455 0.3129 0.7085 -0.7327 4.6198
RM – RF 455 0.2015 0.3313 -0.3941 0.7439
Ri – RF 455 0.2763 0.7095 -0.7798 4.5776
Similarly, book-to-market equity ratio has mean value of 0.6820 and standard
deviation of 0.5623 with minimum to maximum range of negative 0.3245 to
positive 4.7189. Table 2 also indicates that firms differ significantly in terms of their
systematic risk level proxied by stock beta. The stock beta has minimum value of
negative 19.35 to maximum positive 12.49 with a mean of 0.9121. The average stock
return of the sample firms during the period has been recorded at 0.3129 with a
minimum negative return of 0.7327 to maximum positive return of 4.6198. The
range of minimum to maximum excess stock return is wider than that of excess
market return. This implies that average stock returns of the sample firms are more
volatile than the market returns.
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
Correlation analysis
The firm specific variables used in this study, particularly, book-to-market equity
ratio, firms size, stock beta, and stock returns are all scaled version of market price
per share or market value of equity. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect some kind
of statistically significant relationship among these pairs of variables. This section
therefore is devoted to explaining the direction and magnitude of relationship
among different pairs of these firm specific variables including stock returns. The
correlation analysis has been performed for this purpose. Table 3 presents the
value of bivariate Pearson correlation coefficient between different pairs of firm
specific variables of 61 sample firms with 455 observations during the period
1996/97 through 2008/09.
Table 3 Bivariate Pearson Correlation Coefficients of Firm Specific Variables Observed
for 61 Sample Firms during the Period 1996/97 through 2008/09 This table reveals the bivariate Pearson correlation coefficients between different pairs of firm specific
variables. Ri, β, BE/ME and LME are as defined in the Table 2. The correlation coefficients are based
on the data on Ri, β, BE/ME and LME from 61 sample firms listed in NEPSE till mid-April 2010
with 455 observations for the period 1996/97 through 2008/09. ‘*’ sign indicates that correlation is
significant at 1 percent level.
Ri β BE/ME LME
Ri 1.000
β 0.526* 1.000
BE/ME -0.299* -0.214* 1.000
LME 0.210* 0.201* -0.638* 1.000
As Table 3 reports, common stock returns are positively related to stock beta and
firm size and the relationships are significant at 1 percent level. On the other hand,
stocks returns are significantly negatively related to book-to-market equity ratio.
From among given set of firm specific variables, the stock beta reveals stronger
positive relation with stock returns than other. Similarly, there exists high negative
correlation between firm size and book-to-market equity. Gujarati (1995) states that
high correlations (in excess of 0.8) are a sufficient but not necessary condition for
the existence of multicolinearity because it can exist even though the correlations
are comparatively low (less than 0.5). However, low correlations being observed
among different pairs of explanatory variables in Table 3 gives sufficient evidence
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
to believe that the problem of multicolinearity may not exist in the analysis. This
has also been confirmed by employing variance inflationary factor (VIF) to test the
problem of multicolinearity.
Properties of portfolios formed on two-way sorts
This section examines the properties of stock returns with respect to firm specific
variables. Five equal percentiles portfolios were formed based on bivariate sorts of
firm size and BE/ME, firm size and stock beta, and BE/ME and stock beta. The
characteristics of average returns associated with each of these bivariate sorts of
portfolios are described below.
Average returns, firm size, and book-to-market equity
Table 4 reports two dimensional variations in average returns that results when
five firm size portfolios are each subdivided into five portfolios based on BE/ME
for individual stocks. Within a firm size portfolio (across a row in Table 4), average
returns decrease strongly with BE/ME. On average, the returns on the lowest and
highest BE/ME portfolios in a size group differ by 36.03 percent (that is, 52.7
percent minus 16.67 percent). Similarly, from top to down in a column of average
return shows that there is a positive relation between average return and firm size.
On average, the spread of returns across the lowest and highest size portfolios in a
BE/ME group is 19.72 percent (that is, 39.58 percent minus 19.86 percent).
The results indicate that controlling for firm size, book-to-market equity captures
strong variation in average returns. Similarly, controlling for book-to-market
equity, firm size also can capture significant variation in average returns although
the average returns from portfolio 4 to 5 have been declined. However, the
direction of movement in average returns with respect to these two variables are
opposite of those documented in Fama and French (1992). As reported in Table 3,
the correlation between the cross-section of firm size and BE/ME for individual
stocks is -0.638. The negative correlation is also apparent in the average values of
firm size and BE/ME for the portfolios sorted in Table 4. Thus, firm with low
market equity are likely to have poor prospects, resulting in a low average return
and high book-to-market equity. Conversely, larger stocks are more likely to have
good prospects with higher average returns and lower book-to-market equity.
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
Table 4 Average Returns on Portfolios Formed on Firm Size and Book-to-Market Equity
of 61 Sample Firms during the Period 1996/97 through 2008/09 This table shows the average returns of the five portfolios formed on firm size and book-to-market
equity. Stocks sorted by firm size are shown in the order of low to high in the portfolio 1 to 5 from top
to down and stocks sorted by BE/ME are shown in the order of low to high in the portfolio 1 to 5
across left to right. Firm size is measured by natural logarithm of market value of equity and BE/ME
is the ratio of book value of equity to market value of equity.
BE/ME
Firm Size All Low - 1 2 3 4 High - 5
All 0.3136 0.5270 0.4131 0.2431 0.2183 0.1667
Low - 1 0.1986 0.4296 0.2850 0.1222 0.0822 0.0741
2 0.2405 0.4718 0.3087 0.1626 0.1618 0.0977
3 0.2849 0.5241 0.3558 0.2071 0.2017 0.1357
4 0.4484 0.5792 0.5837 0.4153 0.3646 0.2991
High - 5 0.3958 0.6301 0.5322 0.3083 0.2814 0.2268
Average returns, firm size, and stock beta
Table 5 reveals two-way variations in average returns that results when five firm
size portfolios are each subdivided into five portfolios based on stock beta for
individual stocks. There is a positive relation between average returns and stock
beta within a size group. On average, the returns on the lowest and highest stock
beta portfolios in a size group differ by 40.38 percent (that is, 58.97 percent minus
18.59 percent). Similarly, there is also a general pattern of positive relation between
average return and firm size within a beta group. On average, the difference of
returns across the size portfolios in a beta group is 17.20 percent (that is, 37.74
percent minus 20.54 percent).
The results indicate that controlling for firm size, stock beta can capture significant
variation in stock returns as average returns move into the same direction with
beta in a size group. Similarly, controlling for stock beta, firm size also can capture
much of the variation in average returns. Specifically it has been observed that
there is an increase in average returns from portfolio 1 to 4 in a beta group, and
then decrease in size portfolio from the portfolio 4 to 5. The correlation between
firm size and stock beta for individual stocks was observed to be 0.201 and
significant at 1 percent level as indicated in Table 3 in the earlier section. This
positive relation has been also revealed by the average values of firm size and
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
stock beta in the portfolios sorted in Table 5. This implies that smaller size stocks
are likely to have poor prospects with low average returns and low beta, and larger
stocks are more likely to have good prospects of having higher average returns
with higher beta.
Table 5 Average Returns on Portfolios Formed on Firm Size and Stock Beta of 61 Sample
Firms during the Period 1996/97 through 2008/09 This table shows the average returns of the five portfolios formed on firm size and stock beta. Stocks
sorted by firm size are shown in the order of low to high in the portfolio 1 to 5 from top to down and
stocks sorted by stock beta are shown in the order of low to high in the portfolio 1 to 5 across left to
right.
Stock Beta
Firm Size
All Low - 1 2 3 4 High - 5
All 0.3124 0.1859 0.1973 0.2619 0.3273 0.5897
Low - 1 0.2054 0.0758 0.0775 0.1401 0.2190 0.5144
2 0.2455 0.1168 0.1273 0.1925 0.2551 0.5356
3 0.2872 0.1599 0.1686 0.2197 0.3031 0.5847
4 0.4466 0.3321 0.3501 0.4161 0.4918 0.6431
High - 5 0.3774 0.2447 0.2628 0.3411 0.3677 0.6709
Average returns, book-to-market equity, and stock beta
The characteristics of average returns with respect to two-way sort of portfolios
based on book-to-market equity and then stock beta are reported in Table 6. The
portfolios were first sorted into five equal BE/ME group and then each BE/ME
portfolios were subdivided into five beta group portfolios. The results show that
average returns increase with beta in a BE/ME group (across the row), and
decrease with BE/ME within a beta group (across the column). On average, there
is 40.79 percent difference in average returns of high and low beta portfolio in a
BE/ME group, whereas the spread of low and high BE/ME portfolio in a beta
group is only 35.45 percent.
The results indicate that, controlling for book-to-market equity, beta can capture
strong variations in average returns. Similarly, controlling for stock beta, book-to-
market equity also can capture significant variation in average returns but in
opposite direction to that documented in Fama and French (1992). The observed
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
correlation between BE/ME and stock beta was -0.214 and was significant at 1
percent level as reported in Table 3. This negative relation between BE/ME and
stock beta has also been established in the BE/ME and beta sorted portfolios in
Table 6. The results suggest that lower book-to-market stocks are likely to have
higher average returns with higher beta, and higher book-to-market stocks are
more likely to have lower average returns with lower beta.
Table 6 Average Returns on Portfolios Formed on Book-to-Market Equity and Stock Beta
of 61 Sample Firms during the Period 1996/97 through 2008/09 This table shows the average returns of the five portfolios formed on book-to-market equity and stock
beta. Stocks sorted by book-to-market equity are shown in the order of low to high in the portfolio 1 to
5 from top to down and stocks sorted by stock beta are shown in the order of low to high in portfolio 1
to 5 across left to right.
Stock Beta
BE/ME
All Low - 1 2 3 4 High - 5
All 0.3122 0.1835 0.1946 0.2624 0.3289 0.5914
Low - 1
0.5217 0.4160 0.4343 0.5196 0.5425 0.6961
2 0.4112 0.2850 0.3072 0.3762 0.4482 0.6395
3 0.2427 0.0950 0.1126 0.1767 0.2340 0.5952
4 0.2180 0.0897 0.0869 0.1428 0.2382 0.5322
High - 5
0.1672 0.0319 0.0320 0.0966 0.1816 0.4939
Cross-sectional regression analysis
In order to test the statistical significance and robustness of the results, this study
also relies on cross-sectional regression model specified in equation (1). It basically
deals with regression results from various specifications of the model to examine
the estimated relationship of common stock returns with firm specific variables for
cross-sectional data of 61 sample firms that include 455 observations during the
period 1996/97 through 2008/09. The regression results are reported in Table 7.
The simple regression result of stock returns on beta in model specification I shows
a positive relationship of stock returns with stock beta. The slope coefficient of
stock beta is significant at 1 percent level which implies that stock returns increase
with stock beta. However, the result also indicates that the intercept term is
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
significantly different from zero. The empirical validity of the CAPM lies on the
notion that stock returns should have significant positive linear relation with stock
beta and the intercept term should not be statistically significant. The statistical
significance of the intercept term in this study raises a doubt on empirical validity
of the CAPM in the context Nepalese stock market. This result is consistent with
Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972) where the study reported a linear empirical
market line with positive trade-off between return and market risk denoted by
beta. However the intercept term in the study was also found statistically different
from zero that rejected empirical validity of the CAPM.
Table 7 Estimated Relationship from Cross-Sectional Regression of Stock Returns on Beta, Firm Size, Book-to-Market Equity Ratio, and Earnings-to-Price Ratio for 61 Sample Firms with 455 Observations during the Period 1996/97 through 2008/09 Model 1: Rit = α +b1t βit + b2t LMEiit + b3t BE/MEit + eit
This table shows regression results of stock returns on four firm specific variables based on pooled
cross-sectional data of 61 firms listed in NEPSE with 455 observations from the year 1996/97 to
2008/09. The regression results consist of various specifications of the model 1 in the form of simple
and multiple regressions. The reported values are intercepts and slope coefficients of respective
explanatory variables with t-statistics in the parentheses. Dependent variable is the stock return
denoted as Rit, and independent variables are stock beta (βit), firm size (LMEit), and book-to-market
equity ratio (BE/MEit). The reported results also include the values of F-statistics (F) and adjusted
coefficient of determination (Adj. R2). The single asterisk (*) sign indicates that result is significant at
1 percent level.
Dependent Variable: Stock Returns
Model Intercept β LME BE/ME F Adj. R2
I 0.163
(5.339*)
0.165
(13.170*) 173.440* 0.275
II -0.114
(-1.150)
0.174
(4.567*) 20.862* 0.042
III 0.570
(11.419*)
-0.377
(-6.670*) 44.493* 0.087
IV -0.052
(-0.608)
0.158
(12.452*)
0.090
(2.683*) 91.504* 0.285
V 0.343
(7.247*)
0.152
(12.137*)
-0.246
(-4.893*) 103.083* 0.310
VI 0.487
(3.073*)
0.027
(0.549)
-0.351
(-4.781*) 22.363* 0.086
VII 0.394
(2.855*)
0.152
(12.116*)
-0.017
(-0.399)
-0.262
(-4.076*) 68.647* 0.309
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
Similarly, the regression result of stock returns on firm size in model specification
II shows a positive relationship between stock returns and firm size and the
regression coefficient of firm size is statistically significant at 1 percent level. In
another simple regression result of specification III, common stock returns are
observed to be negatively related with book-to-market equity and coefficient is
again significant at 1 percent level. However, the result indicates that only 8.7
percent variations in common stock returns are captured by book-to-market
equity. In all simple regressions, except specification I, despite of statistical
significance of F-value, the firm specific variables such as firm size, and book-to-
market equity ratio individually explains small variations in common stock returns
as indicated by adjusted R2 in the respective model specifications.
In specification VII, three variables, namely stock beta, firm size, and book-to-
market equity, have been used as explanatory variables. The results show that
stock returns have significant positive relation with stock beta and significant
negative relation with book-to-market equity. However, a surprising result has
been obtained in relation to firm size that its observed direction of relation has
been reversed although the size coefficient is not statistically significant. This study
hypothesized that common stock returns are positively related to stock beta and
book-to-market equity and negatively related to firm size. Thus, the observed
relationship of common stock returns with stock beta is according to priori sign
expectation although the priori sign expectations do not hold with other firm
specific variables.
In cross-sectional regression, data are often collected on the basis of a probability
sample of cross-sectional firms so that there is no prior reason to believe that the
error term pertaining to one firm is correlated with the error tem of another firm. If
by chance such a correlation is observed in cross-sectional firms, it is called spatial
autocorrelation, that is, correlation in space rather than over time. However, it is
important in cross-sectional analysis that the ordering of the data must have some
logic, or economic interest, to make sense of any determination of whether spatial
autocorrelation is present or not. In this study, cross-sectional data have the
ordering over time so that there is a need to detect the problem of autocorrelation,
and it has been confirmed by using Durbin-Watson (DW) d-statistic. Similarly, in a
multiple regression analysis, the problem of multicolinearity is more prominent.
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
Therefore, the diagnostic check of the model has been conducted using variance
inflationary factor (VIF) of explanatory variables to detect the multicolinearity
problem, if any, associated with multiple regressions of specification IV through
VII. As argued by Durbin and Watson (1951), if computed DW is less than lower
bound critical value (dL), there is enough evidence to believe that the problem of
positive autocorrelation exists. If it lies between dU to 4-dU, there is no evidence of
autocorrelation. However if computed DW falls in between of lower and upper
bound critical value, the result is inconclusive as to whether the problem of
autocorrelation exists or not. Analyses show that computed DW for all the model
specifications falls in between dU to 4-dU so that there is no evidence of
autocorrelation. With regard to multicolinearity, the analyses also show that
variance inflationary factors (VIF) of explanatory variables across all the model
specifications are significantly lower than 10. Therefore, there is also no evidence of
multicolinearity in the regression model.
The CAPM and the three-factor model
The empirical tests of CAPM (for example Friend and Blume, 1970; Black, Jensen &
Scholes, 1972; Fama & Macbeth, 1973, among others) have asserted that stocks can
earn higher returns if they have a high beta. There is a general agreement that if the
CAPM is a better model of the reward-risk trade-off for securities, beta should be a
better measure of risk. However, the studies (for example, Rosenberg, Reid, &
Lanstein, 1985; Fama & French, 1992; 1993; 1995; Lakonishok, Shleifer, & Vishny,
1994; Kothari, Shanken, & Sloan, 1995; Daniel, Titman, & Wei, 2001, among others)
have also shown that the single risk factor is not quite enough for describing cross-
sectional variations in common stock returns. The current consensus is that firm
size and book-to-market equity factors are pervasive risk factors besides the overall
market risk factor. Therefore, this section attempts to explore the economic
performance of the CAPM versus the three-factor model in explaining cross-
section of common stock returns.
In order to test the performance of CAPM versus three-factor model, this study
relies on regression analysis of the empirical CAPM and three-factor model. The
regression results have been reported in Table 8. The CAPM model reports the
simple regression results, where excess stock returns have been regressed on
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
excess market returns, and FF model reports the multiple regression results where
excess stock returns have been regressed on market risk factor, size factor, and
book-to-market equity factor. At first it is necessary to note that empirical validity
of the CAPM will be established if slope coefficient of market risk factor is
significantly positive and intercept term is not statistically different from zero. The
results report the intercept value of 0.059 with t-statistic of 1.762. The intercept
term is marginally significant at 10 percent level. It, thus, implies that intercept is
statistically different from zero and rejects the second condition of empirical
CAPM. On the other hand, the same results report regression slope coefficient of
1.077 with t-statistic of 12.376. The coefficient is statistically significant at 1 percent
level. The results indicate that stock returns are significantly positively related to
market risk factor. But the statistical significance of the market risk factor
coefficient satisfies only first condition of empirical CAPM. Therefore, the
regression results for the CAPM shown in Table 8 are not consistent with the
expectations.
Table 8 Estimated Relationship from Regression of Excess Stock Returns on Market Risk Factors, Firm Size Factors, and Book-to-Market Equity Factors for 61
Sample Firms with 455 Observations during the Period 1996/97 through 2008/09 CAPM Model: Rit – RFt = αi + bi [RMt – RFt] + eit
FF Three-Factor Model: Rit – RFt = αi + bi[RMt – RFt] + si(SMBt) + hi(HMLt) + eit
This table presents comparative regression results of the CAPM and Fama-French three-factor model.
The dependent variable is the excess of stock returns over risk-free rate and denoted by ‘Rit – RFt’. The
independent variables are market risk factors [RMt – RFt], size factors (SMBt) measured as small
minus big size portfolio, and book-to-market factors (HMLt) measured as high minus low book-to-
market equity portfolio. The sample includes 61 firms listed in NEPSE till mid-April 2010 with 455
observations from the year 1996/97 to 2008/09. ‘b’ denotes to the coefficient of market risk factor, ‘s’
refers to the coefficient of size factor, and ‘h’ is the coefficient of book-to-market equity factor. The
reported values are intercepts and slope coefficients, and figures in the parentheses are t-statistics.
Also reported are the F-statistics, and adjusted coefficient of determination (Adj. R2). ‘*’, ‘**’, and
‘***’ indicate that results are significant at 1, 5, and 10 percent levels respectively.
Dependent Variable: Excess Stock Returns Model
Intercept b s h F Adj. R2
CAPM 0.059
(1.762***)
1.077
(12.376*) 153.159* 0.251
FF -0.198
(-0.583)
1.085
(12.119*)
0.672
(2.587**)
-0.636
(-6.480*) 73.087* 0.323
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
Table 8 also shows the regression results of FF three-factor model. The coefficient
of market risk factor is 1.085 with a t-value of 12.119. The effect size of the market
risk factor has been slightly improved with the coefficient significant at 1 percent
level. Besides the coefficient of market risk factor, other coefficients are also
statistically significant. The firm size factor coefficient is 0.672 with a t-value of
2.587 which is significant at 5 percent level. Similarly, coefficient of book-to-market
equity factor is -0.636 with t-value of -6.480, which is significant at 1 percent level.
The results exhibit an increase in explanatory power of three-factor model as
compared to CAPM results because adjusted R2 has been increased to 0.323 with
significant F-value and intercept term not statistically different from zero. The
results also reveal that FF three-factor model is able to explain the book-to-market
and firm size effects. It has documented a negative HML coefficient which means
that high book-to-market stocks have lower expected returns than low book-to-
market stocks. However, the direction of book-to-market effect contradicts with
Drew and Veeraraghavan (2003), and Gaunt (2004), among other, who observed
positive HML coefficient. Hence, the results in this study suggest that low book-to
market firms are more risky than their high book-to-market counterparts thereby
attracting a risk premium. The results also show a positive SMB coefficient
implying that larger stocks have higher expected returns than smaller stocks. But,
again, the direction of firm size effect contradicts with Halliwell, Heaney, and
Sawicki (1999), Drew and Veeraraghavan (2003) and Gaunt (2004), among others,
who reported a negative SMB coefficient. On the whole, the applicability of the FF
three-factor model in explaining Nepalese stock returns has to be up-weighted due
to significant s and h coefficient along with the significant coefficient for market
risk factor (b).
5. CONCLUSION
The study revealed an important picture in relation to the significance of market
risk factor, and firm specific variables in predicting stock returns. Rationality-based
asset-pricing models assert that the cross-section of stock returns can be explained
by betas or factor loadings on a set of common factors (Chou, Chou & Wang, 2004).
Early evidence in the 1970s largely supported the Sharpe-Linter-Black (SLB) capital
asset pricing model and the efficient market hypothesis. The seminal work of Fama
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
and French (1992), however, identified market value of equity and the ratio of
book-to-market equity as the two major determinants of the cross-sectional
expected returns, and sentenced the death of beta. The major conclusion of this
study is that the firm size does not explain the common stock returns in the context
of stock market in Nepal. The results show the inconsistent relationship of firm
size with common stock returns, and hence its effects are not conclusive. On the
other hand, book-to-market equity and stock beta effects on common stock returns
are consistent across all the analyses and all the specifications of the model. The
results indicate very strong role of stock beta and book-to-market equity to explain
common stock returns in Nepal. Stock beta has consistently significant explanatory
power in all the models indicating that stocks with higher beta have higher returns.
Similarly, book-to-market equity also has consistent significant negative relation
with stock returns in all cases. The results associated with positive and significant
relationship between stock returns and beta do not support the findings of some
earlier studies such as by Banz (1981), Stambaugh (1982), Fama and French (1992)
and others. So far the results in this study are concerned, although the stock
returns are significantly explained by stock beta or market risk factor, the
underlying assumption of CAMP does not completely hold in Nepalese stock
market as intercept term in empirical CAPM has been observed to be marginally
significant. On the other hand, results support Fama and French (1995) three-factor
model because intercept term in empirical FF three-factor model has been observed
to be not significant, and the evidences establish market risk factor, firm size factor
and book-to-market factor as the most significant determinants of stock returns in
Nepal. However, the direction of relationship of size and book-to-market equity
factors with excess stock return contradicts from priori hypothesis.
The conclusions derived from this study, however, deserve some considerations
from the methodological aspects and thus can not be generalized. First, this study
used annual closing price of shares of common stock to provide an estimate of
stock returns and annual closing NEPSE index to estimate market return. Annual
closing prices and stock indexes are suffered from high deviations and thus inflate
the annual returns. Therefore, future studies should be directed towards
computing returns from daily or weekly or monthly observations of closing prices.
Second, this study has assumed linear relationship between stock returns and
explanatory variables. In emerging markets, it is expected that there exists non-
Stock Beta, Firm Size and Book-to-Market Effects on Cross-Section of Common Stock Returns in Nepal
---- Surya Bahadur Rana
linearity. Moreover, emerging markets are characterized by less frequent
transactions termed as thin trading. In order to incorporate these issues, the future
studies are suggested to apply non-linear models to test the predictive power of
explanatory variables. Third, this study used few firm specific variables to assess
the cross-sectional variations in stock returns. Inclusion of some other variables, for
example cash flow to price (Chan, Hamao, & Lakonishok, 1991) leverage (Fama &
French, 1992), annual sales growth (Davis, 1994), sales-to-price and debt-to-equity
ratio (Barbee, Mukherji, & Raines, 1996), may provide an important insight into the
cross-sectional relationship of common stock returns in Nepal. Therefore, future
studies are recommended to include these variables as well. Lastly, this study
used over 75 percent observations from banking and financial sectors. The results
are thus not representative of all sectors of the economy. Hence, future studies are
suggested to include significant number of observations from the sectors other
than banks and financial institutions as well.
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The Lumbini Journal of Business and Economics, Vol. 1, April, 2011