Steve Heminger Executive Director, MTC Planning Committee April 13, 2007.
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Transcript of Steve Heminger Executive Director, MTC Planning Committee April 13, 2007.
Steve HemingerExecutive Director, MTCPlanning Committee
April 13, 2007
CommissionersMary Peters Secretary of Transportation — ChairpersonJack Schenendorf Of Counsel, Covington & Burling — Vice ChairFrank Busalacchi Wisconsin Secretary of TransportationMaria Cino Deputy Secretary of TransportationRick Geddes Director of Undergraduate Studies, Cornell UniversitySteve Heminger Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation CommissionFrank McArdle General Contractors Association of New YorkSteve Odland Chairman and CEO, Office DepotPatrick Quinn Chairman, American Trucking AssociationMatt Rose CEO, Burlington Northern Santa Fe RailroadTom Skancke CEO, The Skancke CompanyPaul Weyrich Chairman and CEO, Free Congress Foundation
Statutory Mandate• Study current condition and future needs of
surface transportation system• Evaluate short-tem sources for Highway
Trust Fund revenues and long-term alternatives to replace or supplement fuel tax
• Frame policy and funding recommendations for 15-, 30-, and 50-year time horizons
• Report to Congress by January 1,2008
Field Hearings• September 20-21, 2006 Dallas, TX• November 15–16, 2006 New York, NY
Memphis, TN• February 21–22, 2007 Los Angeles, CA
Atlanta, GA• March 19, 2007 Washington, DC
• April 18–19, 2007 Chicago, ILMinneapolis, MN
System Maintenance
89% 91% 91% 91%
39%48% 50% 52%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1997 2000 2002 2004
AcceptableGood
Pavement Ride QualityNational Highway System for 2004
Source: U.S. DOT
Bridge Conditions
13.1%13.7%
14.8%16.0%
17.4%18.7%
13.6%
13.8% 14.0% 13.6% 13.8%
13.8%
26.7%27.5%28.5%29.6%
31.4%32.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004Year
Structurally DeficientFunctionally ObsoleteTotal Deficiencies
Bridge Deficiency Percentages
Source: U.S. DOT
Transit System Conditions
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 1997 2000 2002 2004
Bus VehiclesRail Vehicles
RATI
NG (1
= Po
or, 5
= E
xcell
ent)
Source: U.S. DOT
3.48 3.38 3.47 3.50
2.88 2.94 3.05 3.07 3.08
3.42
Traffic Congestion
Highway Operational PerformancePercent VMT Under Congested Conditions
25.9% 27.5%29.6% 30.7% 31.6%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
1995 1997 2000 2002 2004Source: U.S. DOT
In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually
Source: Texas Transportation Institute
Nearly half of the growth in total Transit Passenger Miles from 1995 to 2004 has come from the Heavy Rail mode.
Motorbus Heavy Rail
CommuterRail
LightRail
DemandResponse
Vanpool Ferryboat0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Source: U.S. DOT
Growth in Transit Ridership23% Growth in Total Ridership from 1995 to
2004
Safety
U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities
Per 100 Million VMT
Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004
Safety: Transit FatalitiesFatalities per 100 Million
PMT
0.50.550.6
0.650.7
0.750.8
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Fatalities per 100 Million PMT by Mode
248 Total Transit
Fatalities in 2004
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.6
Motorbus Heavy Rail
CommuterRail
Light RailSource: U.S. DOT
Source: U.S. DOT
Freight
1,4376,165
(TEUs in thousands)
20202004
Houston
13,101
LA/LB1,0102,15
2Miami
2,0433,382
Oakland
4,478
15,835
NY/NJ
1,8095,566
Virginia
1,8606,639
Charleston
1,662
9,420
Savannah
1,7984,396
Tacoma
1,776 2,557
Seattle
59,420
Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression
Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime TradeVolume of trade: 2004 and 2020
Source: U.S. DOTv
Truck Rail Water Air Total
More trade means more domesticfreight movements…
West region +65%
South region +71%
Central
region +71%
Northeast region +58%
U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, 2000-2020
U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020
20202000
% change 2000-2020
62% 44% 39% 181% 57%
10,700
17,296
2,009
2,891
1,0541,470
13,772
21,682
925
Source: U.S. DOT
(tons in millions)
Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
4% 1%
9%3% 2% 0%
7%3% 1%
40%
74%67%
16%
40%
6%<1%<1%
6%2%
13%
3%
Tons Value Ton-Miles
Perc
ent
s
TruckRailWaterAirPipeline
Multiple ModesOther/Unknown Modes
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, “2002 Economic Census, Transportation, 2002 Commodity Flow Survey,” Table 1b.
Trucking dominates domestic freight movement; rail is critical to the movement of bulky, lower-value
commodities and for heavy shipments moving long distances
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Class I Railroads Track-Miles Owned
Sources: L. Thompson/World Bank and American Association of Railroads
Rail Network TodayToday’s rail network has been rationalized and downsized to a
core network that is descended directly from the 19th Century design
Fuel Efficiency(“Energy Independence”)
Sources: Environmental Protection Agency; Energy Information Administration
Hor
sepo
wer
1975
1976
19771978
1979
1980
1997 19961995
1994 19931992 1991
1990 198919881987
1986
19851984
19831982
1981
1998
2004
2003200220012000
1999
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
00 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Miles per Gallon
59 percent more energy performance
52 percentmore output
U.S. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles
1975–2004 Model Years Sales-Weighted Horsepower and MPG
International Fuel Economy Comparison
Comparison of fleet average fuel economy and GHG emission standards for new-sale light-duty vehicles
Sour
ce: U
C Be
rkel
ey
What’s Broken?
Environmental Impact StatementProcessing Time (FY 1998–2006)
Source: FHWA
Length of Time to Complete the New Starts Process
Source: Holland & Knight
Finance
Highway Account Cash Balance
Source: FY 2008 President’s Budget Projections
Mass Transit Account Cash Balance
Source: FY 2008 President’s Budget Projections
Year
600
Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year
Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year (through 2015)(through 2015)
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Year
-of-E
xpen
ditu
re D
olla
rs (i
n Bi
llion
s)
Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year
Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year (through 2015)(through 2015) Revenue
Cost toMaintain
Cost toImprove
National Funding Gap
Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Fuel Tax Purchasing Power Is Eroding…
18.3
16.2
14.0
12.2
5
10
15
20
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Cen
ts p
er G
allo
n
201020082006200420022000199819961994
Source: AASHTO
Street and highway construction costs have increased dramatically over the past few years
* Table shows the Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index rates over the past twenty years as indexed
…While Construction Costs Are Increasing
State Gasoline Tax Rates including Sales and Petroleum
Taxes Plus Local Option Gas Tax
State
Cents per Gallon
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
NY CT MI NV FL RI IN OH ME WV ID OR SD MD ND MN IA NH DC TX VI MS NM OK NJ AK
CA IL WI PA HI WA NC MT NE GA KS UT MA DE CO AR TN AL LA VT AZ KY MO SC WY
Excise MFTAdditional MFT
Source: American Petroleum Institute
As of April 2006
Recent Public Private Partnerships
Source: Public Works Financing
Project LocationIntermodal Projects in GreenHighway Projects in BlueTransit Projects in Yellow
Reno RailCorridor
SR 125Toll Road
-Hudson Bergen Light Rail Line
Chicago SkywayAsset Sale
Dulles Greenway
Miami Intermodal Center
Central TexasTurnpike
PocahontasParkway
Camden Trenton Light Rail Line
San Joaquin HillsToll Road
Foothill EasternToll Road
Alameda Corridor
-Trans TexasCorridor
Denver E-470NorthwestParkway
NM 44 (US 550)
Southern Connector
Hiawatha Light Rail Line
Jamaica JFK Airtrain
Tacoma NarrowsBridge
Osceola Parkway
Las Vegas Monorail
I-15 Reconstruction
AZ-17
Indiana Toll Road Asset Sale
CREATE
For More Information:
www.transportationfortomorrow.org